https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising

My favorite Clancy book may be some required reading in the present or near future.

JayHowdy! said:

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Rossticus said:

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Everything hinges on what NATO decides now. Do they bank on a NATO supported Ukrainian insurgency, shadow government and sanctions to outlast Putin and cross their fingers?

Do they send in their limited response force, should Putin advance past Donbask region, to buffer Kyiv or Lviv and dare Putin to engage (which they haven't yet ruled out) and hope all hell doesn't break loose?

Tense.

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There is zero chance NATO troops enter Ukraine. That would open up a can of worms that we don't want to deal with. We will run a proxy insurgency, defend the NATO countries, and hopefully come to a stalemate at that point.

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I'm not convinced it's nonzero. We're going to do everything under the heavens to avoid it but responses from NATO to UK to US leave venues that don't require outright rolling in to face the Russians that could still pull us in.

Particularly if Russia starts rounding people up into camps for deportation to the interior of Russia like they've been speculated to be considering.

Nothing is settled and this could still take a number of different trajectories.

Yeah I can't wait for American troops to roll into China to stop the concentration camps of millions of Uyghurs as well. While we are it lets take on every country that has nukes and see how well it goes.

Rossticus said:

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JayHowdy! said:

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Rossticus said:

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Everything hinges on what NATO decides now. Do they bank on a NATO supported Ukrainian insurgency, shadow government and sanctions to outlast Putin and cross their fingers?

Do they send in their limited response force, should Putin advance past Donbask region, to buffer Kyiv or Lviv and dare Putin to engage (which they haven't yet ruled out) and hope all hell doesn't break loose?

Tense.

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There is zero chance NATO troops enter Ukraine. That would open up a can of worms that we don't want to deal with. We will run a proxy insurgency, defend the NATO countries, and hopefully come to a stalemate at that point.

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I'm not convinced it's nonzero. We're going to do everything under the heavens to avoid it but responses from NATO to UK to US leave venues that don't require outright rolling in to face the Russians that could still pull us in.

Particularly if Russia starts rounding people up into camps for deportation to the interior of Russia like they've been speculated to be considering.

Nothing is settled and this could still take a number of different trajectories.

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NATO article 5….

Maybe NATO picks up Sweden, Georgia, and Azerbaijan for full membership.

I'm not quite ready to defer to you expert opinion just yet.

Lots of brilliant TexAgs minds postulated that Putin would never go into Ukraine and everyone would cave to his demands. So, just hold tight now lil buckaroo.

Unfortunately, I don't think much will be done. I don't have much faith in any sort of sanctions. We can't even go after Gazprom without significant collateral damage throughout Europe and the rest of the world.

Putin sees this as a perfect opportunity to run through Europe, while the Marxist liberals wring their wrists on fake racism, transgendered soldiers, and green energy.

The Chicken Ranch said:

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Putin sees this as a perfect opportunity to run through Europe, while the Marxist liberals wring their wrists on fake racism, transgendered soldiers, and green energy.

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Don't forget the pronouns

We're about to find out one way or another. That much is certain.

Agreed we will do all kinds of stuff to look like we are doing something but our time of being unchallenged is over with. When the dollar stops being the reserve currency that will be when the nosedive happens

I'm on that list

TommyBrady said:

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It still blows my mind that people think any of this isn't just posturing and trying to save face. We are not gonna fight Russia and we aren't going to do anything meaningful to stop this. The West doesn't have the stomach for a real war and Russia and China both know its just a matter of time before they can bully their way into getting what they want.

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Yes, because no human has ever been wrong throughout history on their predictions of armed conflict.

Good lord, STFU. You may be right in the end but your attitude is ass and know one likes the blowhard, trust me. And no, we don't care about your creds.

The Chicken Ranch said:

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Putin sees this as a perfect opportunity to run through Europe, while the Marxist liberals wring their wrists on fake racism, transgendered soldiers, and green energy.

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The Russians don't need move beyond where they are now. He moved a rook on the international chess board. Not even close to a check-mate, just an opening move....


Putin is applying pressure to an extremely over leveraged EU/West. He just needs to sit back and watch as the feckless leaders in NATO fight to come to a consensus on what to do and ultimately fail as skyrocketing fuel prices increase inflation throughout the world. Social unrest is a real problem when people can't afford food or get to work.


No body wants a real shooting war. Way too many un-knowns happen. Putin can dig in with what he has now and threaten daily to invade the remaining "disputed" areas of Donbas. It will drive the West insane, having to "do something" or be seen as weak.

This thread has been around since November and the same crap took place back in 2014 with Crimea with Obama at the helm. It's not going to be a bigger conflict anytime soon.

Media, Military Contractors, and Bankers are going to make a ****-load of cash over the next few weeks/months spinning the story into an hour to hour crisis.

Ag In Ok said:

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I'm on that list

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I think that after his speech yesterday it's clear that many were misguided with regard to his ultimate motivation, and there's no shame in that. It's not something we've seen much of in many of our lifetimes'.

For those reasons I also believe that he would have attempted this without regard for who sits in the Oval Office.
How a different president (you know who) would have handled it may very well have headed things off before we reached this point but this has been part of Putin's long term strategic plan for a Russian return to greatness. He wouldn't have changed that for anyone.

Putin doesn't see other world leaders as friends. To think otherwise is naive. We're going to have to play him tough on a multitude of different fronts because he's in for a penny in for a pound at this point. He's not going home unless we leave him no alternative. What that looks like I don't know but it won't be pretty for anyone.

This isn't going away any time soon.

Get back to me in 30 days

I don't think I'll take your advice seems like reality isn't something you like dealing with.

FLASHBACK VIDEO! Joe Biden in 2019 campaign message: "Putin knows that when I am president of the United States his days of tyranny and trying to intimidate the United States and those in Eastern Europe are over!" pic.twitter.com/mBVNV60SsC

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 22, 2022

Ukraine is finally mobilizing. On paper they can call up about a quarter million

I'm sure Lavrov will be disappointed.

Sec Blinken says his meeting with Lavrov is off because Russia is now beginning its invasion of Ukraine & making clear its wholesale rejection of diplomacy. He says a meeting w Lavrov does not make sense. He sent Lavov a letter informing him of this today.

— Kylie Atwood (@kylieatwood) February 22, 2022

GAC06 said:

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Ukraine is finally mobilizing. On paper they can call up about a quarter million

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They will be lucky to get half of that called up in time and luckier if they can deploy a quarter of it effectively. I think this moves tonight or tomorrow night.

Ukrainians sing in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin:“I won’t give up without a fight”… https://t.co/fOZ6vBzwgU

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 22, 2022

TommyBrady said:

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Shouldn't they be in Ukraine and not Berlin if they plan on fighting?

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Air travel restricted. Probably rail as well. Might be stuck for now. All this has escalated pretty quickly. I imagine many of them are Berlin residents on top of that as workers and students.

TommyBrady said:

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Shouldn't they be in Ukraine and not Berlin if they plan on fighting?

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Or torching the Russian embassy....

AgResearch said:

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TommyBrady said:

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Shouldn't they be in Ukraine and not Berlin if they plan on fighting?

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Or torching the Russian embassy....

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It's an embassy, not a liquor store.

wow, it's good to hear at least one Ukrainian official say they are going to fight.

they have to --- despite the odds.

it's how a national identity is forged

The False Flag attacks continue, how much fake justification does Russia feel it needs????

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2022

Russia is blaming other countries for intimidating journalists with violence? GTFOH! LMAO!

aezmvp said:

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GAC06 said:

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Ukraine is finally mobilizing. On paper they can call up about a quarter million

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They will be lucky to get half of that called up in time and luckier if they can deploy a quarter of it effectively. I think this moves tonight or tomorrow night.

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True but they have differing levels of readiness within their reserve structure, and it's a pretty big country.