***** OFFICIAL Russia v. Ukraine *****

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Irish 2.0
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45-70Ag
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AG
The whole taking point of international law is so stupid, it doesn't exist for countries who don't want to follow it.

JobSecurity
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45-70Ag said:

Reporter on the radio said Russian special forces are already in Ukraine and waiting to get the go ahead to target those on their list. Reporter said the targets are political, journalists, academics and those involved in the financial system. Said they've got names and whereabouts
Lot of important people in Ukraine that won't ever know the war started
Irish 2.0
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Demosthenes81
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Irish 2.0 said:


Nancy and the UK boys need to get their sell orders first.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Apache
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Quote:

Ukraine had 8 years to take back the rebel held areas and didn't have the balls to do it.
They weren't stupid, they would have gotten their butts kicked & no one would have helped.
Then Putin would have used it as justification to do what they are about to do anyway. Ukraine was even less capable to defend itself then so it was a wise choice.
Faustus
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Sting hoping the Russians love their children too.



Putin hates children.





aTmAg
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45-70Ag said:

Reporter on the radio said Russian special forces are already in Ukraine and waiting to get the go ahead to target those on their list. Reporter said the targets are political, journalists, academics and those involved in the financial system. Said they've got names and whereabouts
If a reporter knows that, then Russia has bigtime OPSEC issues.
gougler08
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Demosthenes81 said:

Irish 2.0 said:


Nancy and the UK boys need to get their sell orders first.
Too late for that ****, market is closed today
Irish 2.0
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Apache
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The invasion isn't scheduled until tomorrow.
45-70Ag
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Irish 2.0 said:





Half ass effort that will accomplish nothing. The people of Ukraine are ****ed.
gougler08
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Apache said:

The invasion isn't scheduled until tomorrow.
But if the UK announces sanctions tomorrow, it most likely is before our market opens right?
aezmvp
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jabberwalkie09 said:

aezmvp said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

45-70Ag said:

Pentagon assessment of Russian invasion………..in the first 18 hours, half of Ukraine's military will be killed.

Seeing the Russians deploy pontoon bridges during their training exercises has not been an accident. If this happens, I fully expect an air campaign targeting bridges across the Dneiper river. Cutting off reinforcement and supplies to the Ukrainian army I'm in the east.
Best guess is Belogord area encircles area East of the Dnieper meeting forces out of the Rostov-on-Don area. Crimean forces push west along with an amphibious landing and forces from Moldova on Odessa. Paradrop behind Kiev to cut off the roads and avenues for the government to escape while the forces on the Belarus side West of the Dnieper push on Kyiv itself. Drop the bridges, first strike the missile/airbases and go for a coup de main attack decapitating their leadership structure and command components in the first 24 hours. The rest of that will take a week to fully accomplish but yeah I'm betting I'm close on operational concept.

I'd imagine the majority of the forces in the region of Belgorod will secure Kharkiv. That's going to be important to their logistical sustainment needs.
It's their biggest concentration of forces on the overheads, will likely work in conjunction with any forces East of the River to seal it.
Ag In Ok
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Feels like step 1 to tell the masses we have always been at war with Eurasia.
ProgN
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Faustus said:

Sting hoping the Russians love their children too.



Putin hates children.






You missed the perfect moment to post the Seinfeld gif where Kramer kicks the kids ass in karate class. You're slipping man.
Irish 2.0
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AgResearch
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All talk and no action from world powers. "Oh Putin pretty please don't do that and don't do anything else...pretty please"
Rossticus
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Oh, well since she demands it…. What are these people smoking. This is not what I was taught we learned from WW2.
Irish 2.0
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Just start seizing all properties and assets owned by Russians in NATO countries. Oligarchs willl see 100s of billions disappear overnight. Bet this **** ends real fast then
Rossticus
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Good point in the article: "What is curious about the upcoming Biden EO is that he is punishing the separatist regions - which at least officially are part of Ukraine - effectively admitting with his punitive actions that they are now part of Russia."
45-70Ag
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The way Putin is rolling, he will have them killed and assets seized.
pagerman @ work
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A perspective to consider:

Quote:

The situation is like the Cuban Turkish Missile Crisis. How soon everyone forgot that it was the American decision to put nukes into Turkey that prompted the Russians to threaten to put nukes into Cuba. Whether rightly or wrongly, the Russian side has long felt aggrieved that the US has treated them as a pathetic has-been with a puny GDP rather than as a nuclear superpower. Or, to be more specific, President Putin has long felt he wasn't getting sufficient respect or a hearing for his take on reality. No doubt many will continue to speculate whether he is a madman on a messianic mission or a Head of State that isn't being taken seriously or the Head of an organized crime gang whose cash flows have dried up. Whichever the case, the West needs to understand that we are all now in the midst of a dry tinderbox with a lot of matches lying around now. So, what can be done to de-escalate?

First, let's be clear about the ask. Putin outlined some specifics that have already been declined, like Ukraine being prevented from ever joining NATO. But, these are just opening gambits for something bigger. President Obama's former Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, got it right when he said Putin is looking for the Helsinki Accords 2.0. This is what Russia and China both want. They have both long lost all faith in the American-led post-war system that promised equality and opportunity, but which has been used (in their view) to punish them at every turn. Both want recognition of their "territorial integrity". The West threatens Russia with expulsion from SWIFT and kills China's efforts to build a global brand (Huawei). All sides agree that the "Gentleman's Agreements" of the post-war period no longer apply and the gloves are off. The US wants the old rules back. China and Russia want new ones.

Quote:

The first new rule of global diplomacy is that electrons are bullets. We forget. We in the West went digital. Russia and China pretty much stayed analog. China turned all its data off and cut off the Chinese from the global internet altogether. They can live without these things. The West cannot. The easiest way to damage the West now is not via a cyberattack, though that's underway too. Forget blockading the port in Odessa and instead imagine a blockade of your computer port.

The new escalation is simply to turn off the power, GPS and the internet. But, not for long. These mechanisms are needed to spread the news but their availability can become sporadic. All this can be done by China and Russia with almost unlimited plausible deniability. When electrons are weapons, wars become invisible and don't need to be declared. Events happen and nobody quite connects the dots or can determine exactly who did it. Electrons can start fires, set off explosions, jam signals. That's also why explosions in space have to be taken seriously. They can disrupt the core of modern economy.
Quote:

As Kahn said, you have to change your mindset to de-escalate. Remember that the West has fought tech wars with analog opponents. This is a tech war with tech opponents who can drop into analog at any time by falling back on an abacus or a slide rule. Americans can't count on ten fingers at this point. Nor can they use a smartphone or launch a weapon without access to the grid. If the solution is to concede that the global economy is so deeply intertwined that we cannot excommunicate China and Russia but instead need a new set of rules and agreements to accommodate them, then why not start Helsinki 2.0? It beats sitting in the dark. If we do not like how Putin handles the management of the state and think his brand of poison is unacceptable (Novichok and Polonium), then we have to create a world where the new rules of the game address these behaviors.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
AgResearch
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Taiwan....T&P soon...you're up next
jabberwalkie09
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ProgN
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AgResearch said:

Taiwan....T&P soon...you're up next
I'm in agreement and I hope we're both wrong. If China moves on Taiwan it's going to get extremely bad for the entire globe.
Irish 2.0
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Jock 07
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When this thing kicks off it won't be contained to the East and it goes big from the beginning. I'm just hoping Ukraine can maintain an insurgency long term to make the ****ers bleed.
Premium
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Irish 2.0 said:




Is this like SEC expansion? A&M (Russia) found out Texas and OU (Ukraine) was going to get let into the SEC (NATO), so we tried to blow the whole thing up. Our retaliation was going all in economically with NIL to gain the upper hand while the other schools just whined, complained and postured.
LMCane
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Rossticus said:

aTmAg said:

Biden could put an end to this right now by flat out declaring an invasion of Ukraine means all out war. Stick F-22s, F35s, F15s, F16s, and A10s nearby and say we will use our air power to it's full effect to repel any invasion. By projecting weakness, he is encouraging Putin (and others).


Just talked to a vet (my electrician) and we agreed that there's no way it doesn't come to this if things go hot. There are too many NATO assets positioned too near this isht. Someone is going to color outside the lines and all hell is going to break loose.
I'm a Vet (Air Force Intel) and there is NO WAY that is remotely correct.

You just aren't analyzing this correctly at all.

there will NOT be NATO action,

there will NOT be American action.

there will be sanctions, and perhaps a Russian invasion (either blitzkrieg totally demolishing Ukraine or just to enter the breakaway republics)

either way, Biden's response is weak sanctions that won't destroy Russia,

and Russian counter-sanctions that will definitely harm the economies of the West (including the USA)
FJB
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The next step will involve Russian troops moving fully into the Donbass.
Rossticus
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jabberwalkie09 said:




Anyone have any speculation on what this is indicative of?
W
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so is anyone (including Ukraine) going to try to stop the invasion?

with like...you know...tanks, artillery, etc..,
TriAg2010
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Premium said:

Irish 2.0 said:




Is this like SEC expansion? A&M (Russia) found out Texas and OU (Ukraine) was going to get let into the SEC (NATO), so we tried to blow the whole thing up. Our retaliation was going all in economically with NIL to gain the upper hand while the other schools just whined, complained and postured.


Maybe make the Aggies the good guys in your metaphors?
Solo Tetherball Champ
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pagerman @ work said:

A perspective to consider:

Quote:

The situation is like the Cuban Turkish Missile Crisis. How soon everyone forgot that it was the American decision to put nukes into Turkey that prompted the Russians to threaten to put nukes into Cuba. Whether rightly or wrongly, the Russian side has long felt aggrieved that the US has treated them as a pathetic has-been with a puny GDP rather than as a nuclear superpower. Or, to be more specific, President Putin has long felt he wasn't getting sufficient respect or a hearing for his take on reality. No doubt many will continue to speculate whether he is a madman on a messianic mission or a Head of State that isn't being taken seriously or the Head of an organized crime gang whose cash flows have dried up. Whichever the case, the West needs to understand that we are all now in the midst of a dry tinderbox with a lot of matches lying around now. So, what can be done to de-escalate?

First, let's be clear about the ask. Putin outlined some specifics that have already been declined, like Ukraine being prevented from ever joining NATO. But, these are just opening gambits for something bigger. President Obama's former Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, got it right when he said Putin is looking for the Helsinki Accords 2.0. This is what Russia and China both want. They have both long lost all faith in the American-led post-war system that promised equality and opportunity, but which has been used (in their view) to punish them at every turn. Both want recognition of their "territorial integrity". The West threatens Russia with expulsion from SWIFT and kills China's efforts to build a global brand (Huawei). All sides agree that the "Gentleman's Agreements" of the post-war period no longer apply and the gloves are off. The US wants the old rules back. China and Russia want new ones.

Quote:

The first new rule of global diplomacy is that electrons are bullets. We forget. We in the West went digital. Russia and China pretty much stayed analog. China turned all its data off and cut off the Chinese from the global internet altogether. They can live without these things. The West cannot. The easiest way to damage the West now is not via a cyberattack, though that's underway too. Forget blockading the port in Odessa and instead imagine a blockade of your computer port.

The new escalation is simply to turn off the power, GPS and the internet. But, not for long. These mechanisms are needed to spread the news but their availability can become sporadic. All this can be done by China and Russia with almost unlimited plausible deniability. When electrons are weapons, wars become invisible and don't need to be declared. Events happen and nobody quite connects the dots or can determine exactly who did it. Electrons can start fires, set off explosions, jam signals. That's also why explosions in space have to be taken seriously. They can disrupt the core of modern economy.
Quote:

As Kahn said, you have to change your mindset to de-escalate. Remember that the West has fought tech wars with analog opponents. This is a tech war with tech opponents who can drop into analog at any time by falling back on an abacus or a slide rule. Americans can't count on ten fingers at this point. Nor can they use a smartphone or launch a weapon without access to the grid. If the solution is to concede that the global economy is so deeply intertwined that we cannot excommunicate China and Russia but instead need a new set of rules and agreements to accommodate them, then why not start Helsinki 2.0? It beats sitting in the dark. If we do not like how Putin handles the management of the state and think his brand of poison is unacceptable (Novichok and Polonium), then we have to create a world where the new rules of the game address these behaviors.

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