ItsA&InotA&M said:

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light_bulb said:

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Long story short, is there any good reason I should care if Russia invades Ukraine?

At the surface, it has no impact on my life, so I will likely not care.

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You should care because Americans will be sent to fight the Russian invasion. American dads, sons, and husbands will be killed.

If we going are going to fight a border invasion, send the troops the southern US border.

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so we're thinking there's going to be American troops and tanks on the ground in Ukraine fighting the Russian army?

I don't see that. Putin would have to continue advancing in western Europe for direct ground engagement

When asked if the US would consider recognizing Crimea or any territories in eastern Ukraine as part of Russia as a diplomatic way out to avoid a larger war Blinken says plainly: "No," on CBS.

— Kylie Atwood (@kylieatwood) February 20, 2022

Comments are an interesting read

"Russia don't touch Ukraine!" 6 people unfurled banners against invasion in downtown Moscow. Waiting police immediately arrested them pic.twitter.com/DsUYqYDnXP

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) February 20, 2022

Jayhawk said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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light_bulb said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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light_bulb said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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buzzardb267 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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buzzardb267 said:

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I still think, whatever happens, the Biden admin has fanned the flames simply to keep it in all the news headlines. Not hearing near as much about inflation, Hunter, the border, spying on sitting POTUS, etc.

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Right…sooo…did Biden conspire with Putin to put the Russian troops on the Ukrainian border in order to distract from Hunter?

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Not what I said. However, "never let a good crisis go to waste".

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K. So tell me...what should POTUS have done?

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Let Ukraine handle its own issues of sovereignty.

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K.

So you're saying the US shouldn't do anything for a democratic nation against an authoritarian one? No sending of arms, no economic sanctions?

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Only when there is a good enough strategic interest to do so.

I don't know of anything that Ukraine brings to the table that would make us getting involved beneficial but can definitely be convinced.

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K.

In your scenario of not doing anything w/Ukraine and letting the Russians roll them...how would China perceive that? Especially as it relates to Taiwan.

Also...how would our NATO Allies (Baltics, Poles, Nordics) perceive that as well?

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Taiwan is not Ukraine. Ukraine was governed from Moscow for the entire duration of our republic's life until 1991, it is not worth risking nuclear war to defend.

With respect to Taiwan, firstly as a purely military problem there is no comparison to Ukraine in terms of the feasibility of an effective defense. Ukraine is surrounded on three sides by a land border with the aggressor, who happens to be the largest country on earth (Belarus is essentially a tributary state at this point).

So long as a centralized Russian state exists, it is a military inevitability that Ukraine is likely to be subjugated by that state for the exact same reason that the American union was able to subjugate the southern states. The geography and pure logistics overwhelmingly favor the larger power. And, just like in our civil war, the only thing that could conceivably tip that balance to equilibrium or in favor of the Ukrainians is an enormous foreign military effort, which means war with Russia.

In the real world, the plucky little guy doesn't always win. In fact, historically, he usually gets brutally snuffed out of existence and absorbed into the larger power. Wise and judicious statesmanship is knowing when to use the power available to you to put your hand on the scale after measuring the cost, it is not wise to exhaust yourself in wars with near peers because they are "authoritarian" or because your perceived good guys are "democratic.' That is hubristic and will ensure the decline you probably are trying to prevent.

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That's cool and all…but how does China perceive the US not responding to a Ukraine invasion is the question you need to answer.

Not how you WISH it to be perceived.

quote=Faustus]

ItsA&InotA&M said:

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light_bulb said:

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Long story short, is there any good reason I should care if Russia invades Ukraine?

At the surface, it has no impact on my life, so I will likely not care.

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You should care because Americans will be sent to fight the Russian invasion. American dads, sons, and husbands will be killed.

If we going are going to fight a border invasion, send the troops the southern US border.

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Not all troops, just the dads, sons, and husbands, which sounds like a lot, until you realize those terms could all apply to a single soldier in a fictional deployment.

K

NEWS: The U.S. has intelligence that Russian troops have received orders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. “The commanders on the ground are making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sector of the battlefield,” CBS David Martin reports on @FacetheNation. pic.twitter.com/uKsfdWRQjV

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) February 20, 2022

Jennifer Griffin. I no longer really trust her reporting.

Interesting data on Ukrainian sentiment. Willing to compromise on just about anything… apart from ceding any power or influence over Ukraine to Russia. It's unfortunate that Putin's goal is power and influence over Ukraine.

#Ukraine is ready to compromise. Kyiv could delegate authority to international peacekeepers, international judges could review crimes, lustration could include all DNR/LNR officials that comitted no grave crimes. But Ukraine will not relinquish sovereintiy to #Russia,data DIF pic.twitter.com/BQBD3R9Ay4

— Orysia Lutsevych (@Orysiaua) February 20, 2022

aggiehawg said:

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Jennifer Griffin. I no longer really trust her reporting.

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Was trying to just post the David Martin clip from FTN, not as a subtweet to Griffin, who was cited by the NewsLive site. Fixed.

AFP reports that Putin has once again promised Macron to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus, though this time he didn’t specify the date. There’ve been reports from some Belarusian towns (Shchuchin, Luninets) that Russian servicemen started renting flats for at least 3-4 months https://t.co/Lg4lpwFhT6

— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) February 20, 2022

Wow.

Who needs CIA intel when you have Zhirik? (Speaking on 27 Dec)

"At 4am on 22 Feb you'll feel [our new policy]. I'd like 2022 to be peaceful. But I love the truth, for 70 years I've said the truth. It won't be peaceful. It will be a year when Russia once again becomes great." pic.twitter.com/MUZtuZI1is

— Francis Scarr (@francska1) February 20, 2022

Damn Biden and his warmongering

Rossticus said:

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AFP reports that Putin has once again promised Macron to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus, though this time he didn’t specify the date. There’ve been reports from some Belarusian towns (Shchuchin, Luninets) that Russian servicemen started renting flats for at least 3-4 months https://t.co/Lg4lpwFhT6

— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) February 20, 2022

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Technically leaving Belarus and entering Ukraine is "withdrawing".

Good post on Russian philosophy behind disinformation and narrative control. Read entire thread.

Was privileged to participate (sit in) on a call facilitated by this gentleman as part of a session with Ukrainian Deputy PM Stefanishyna and English speaking European reporters this past week. He's legit.

a thread to understand what's going on: think of Russia as postmodern fascist state, a mix of Mussolini and Baudrillard. This means: a) there's no society or individuals, only state, which subjugates all, b) there's no reality, only virtual image which subjugates facts

— Volodymyr Yermolenko (@yermolenko_v) February 20, 2022

JUST IN
🇺🇦Ukraine’s Defense Minister: Ukraine intelligence reports that civilians "evacuated" from the occupied Donbass are travelling back by themselves as they are not offered accomodation and food in Russia.

— Ruthen (@RutheniaRus) February 20, 2022

Hypothetical here:
If US and Europe were to sanction Russian owned entities and properties of oligarchs, do y'all think this would pause Putin? Knowing billions worth of real estate and equity is at stake for Putin 'backers' is at stake, would this stop?

People here keep saying we won't send troops.

We have Jets that got relocated to Poland earlier in the week. We have small team (SF) assets nearby.

If the US thinks this is going down and you don't think we're extracting American HVTs and others from Ukraine, you're living in another world.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Hypothetical here:
If US and Europe were to sanction Russian owned entities and properties of oligarchs, do y'all think this would pause Putin? Knowing billions worth of real estate and equity is at stake for Putin 'backers' is at stake, would this stop?

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That's one of the threatened sanctions we've laid out for him in addition to cutting off Russia from the rest of the world Economically. Other sanctions that would bring their tech/it development to a grinding halt, more or less.

During Munich Sec Con the EU President also stated unequivocally that they're committed to energy diversification and independence away from Russia.

Disclosed that US, Japan among others have committed to assisting fill the gap with alternative natural gas supplies moving forward until long term plans are put into action.

Basically, Russia cutting them off isn't going to impact their decision making in this. The US may profit while Russia takes a massive hit if Putin doesn't back off.

Americans were told to leave Ukraine a while back

GAC06 said:

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Americans were told to leave Ukraine a while back

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Doesn't mean they left. There are teams on standby to get people out if necessary.

My position on this has always been the Europe accounts for ~30% of the Russian GDP, not including losses of potential sanctions that could include repossessing oligarchs property is 100s of billions. Can Russia survive that?

Will the oligarchs allow Putin to take a portion of Ukrainian at the expense of that?

My guess is this all ends in a big nothing burger.

Hell, the SWIFT sanction alone would halt them and their economy.

Irish 2.0 said:

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My position on this has always been the Europe accounts for ~30% of the Russian GDP, not including losses of potential sanctions that could include repossessing oligarchs property is 100s of billions. Can Russia survive that?

Will the oligarchs allow Putin to take a portion of Ukrainian at the expense of that?

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I think we'll know based on how the newly agreed upon round of talks with Putin pans out this week. This assumes that he follows through and participates without manufacturing a precipitating event before they've been completed.

Putin is old school. Suffering for mother Russia is duty. If Ukraine is the lynchpin for future goals then I don't think the immediate economic hit impacts his thought process as much as it would that of a western observer.

He has to feel that he's accomplishing some sort of strategic AND narrative victory here in order to withdraw. Otherwise, what's the point? Putin isn't nearly as conflict averse as Europe and the US.

K2-HMFIC said:

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light_bulb said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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light_bulb said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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light_bulb said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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buzzardb267 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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buzzardb267 said:

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I still think, whatever happens, the Biden admin has fanned the flames simply to keep it in all the news headlines. Not hearing near as much about inflation, Hunter, the border, spying on sitting POTUS, etc.

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Right…sooo…did Biden conspire with Putin to put the Russian troops on the Ukrainian border in order to distract from Hunter?

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Not what I said. However, "never let a good crisis go to waste".

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K. So tell me...what should POTUS have done?

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Let Ukraine handle its own issues of sovereignty.

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K.

So you're saying the US shouldn't do anything for a democratic nation against an authoritarian one? No sending of arms, no economic sanctions?

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Only when there is a good enough strategic interest to do so.

I don't know of anything that Ukraine brings to the table that would make us getting involved beneficial but can definitely be convinced.

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K.

In your scenario of not doing anything w/Ukraine and letting the Russians roll them...how would China perceive that? Especially as it relates to Taiwan.

Also...how would our NATO Allies (Baltics, Poles, Nordics) perceive that as well?

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So perception looks bad.

Ok, so sanctions and arm up Ukraine. What happens if Russia steam rolls them anyways after all that effort?

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Isolate Russia, try to split their alliance with the PRC.

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K.

So how do Taiwan and the Baltics feel about that, we let Russia steam roll the ever living hell out of Ukraine and the most Russia feels for doing so is sanctions and isolation. And it is arguable (if not certain) that Europe would have to pay a steep price for isolation of Russia given Europe's own self inflicted energy pitfalls. How long can Europe hold that line without capitulation?

Some trade off there. These threats of sanctions and isolation better work to prevent any attack at all from happening, otherwise this so called "perception battle" is lost.

Something else to keep in mind is that Russia has done very well economically in the recent past. They've amassed something on the order of $600-$700 billion reserve capital. They knew that sanctions would be a given in the event they pursue this course.

I believe that they initially determined they have the ability to weather the storm economically. That won't change unless what we've threatened is drastically beyond what they anticipated.

There are now 2 x Northrop Grumman RQ-4 UAVs airborne at the same time.

FORTE11 https://t.co/aq7t2gPFKN

UAVGH000 https://t.co/CZWS53wEwf pic.twitter.com/3uWdn7bir7

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) February 20, 2022

FORTE11 (USAF RQ-4B Global Hawk) is on task this evening above Ukraine.

Drone is paying heavy attention to the #Belgorod area: a far more localized mission than we normally see. pic.twitter.com/tay2Wy8Tyz

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) February 20, 2022

WW3 is just around the corner. Better be ready as we will get sucked into it.

Hope not. Authoritarian aggression and attempted punitive control against/over other countries makes it difficult to avoid perpetually. Wish there was another way. Rod from God direct mail to Putin?

It would be great, it Russia launched the attack right after Brandon's state of the union.

aggiesheriff04 said:

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It would be great, it Russia launched the attack right after Brandon's state of the union.

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No attack would be great and I continue to stand by my belief this was posturing from Putin to keep Ukraine out of NATO and get them to recognize Donbas as a Russian backed independent

I don't see Putin stopping until he gets to Berlin.

Irish 2.0 said:

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aggiesheriff04 said:

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It would be great, it Russia launched the attack right after Brandon's state of the union.

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No attack would be great and I continue to stand by my belief this was posturing from Putin to keep Ukraine out of NATO and get them to recognize Donbas as a Russian backed independent

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You might be right Irish but I would be interested to know if you think Putin has a serious go option in front of him or if you think this is solely posturing.

Irish 2.0 said:

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aggiesheriff04 said:

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It would be great, it Russia launched the attack right after Brandon's state of the union.

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No attack would be great and I continue to stand by my belief this was posturing from Putin to keep Ukraine out of NATO and get them to recognize Donbas as a Russian backed independent

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That's exactly what it was. Russia moved under the assumption of weak western powers and inevitable capitulation. He wasn't expecting unified rejection of his demands.

He's painted himself into a corner but withdrawing isn't an option because resolution without establishing a means for destabilization of the Ukrainian government to his benefit and eventual control is failure.

Im afraid that either Ukraine and the west appease Putin in a fashion that is conducive to progress toward eventual accomplishment of his goals or this game of chicken results in a collision.

The only good outcome is that Putin agrees to negotiate on commonly held security concerns and withdraws. What do you think the chances are of that? I'm calling slim to none because that's not what this is all about to Putin.

I don't think he could allow himself to take an L to the EU, UK, and US without going to war. He detests all of us and thinks we're weak and inferior. He might literally spontaneously combust or explode from his own rage.