Rossticus said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Fiona Hill? The woman who testified during the first impeachment that she believed the Steele dossier was likely Russian disinformation.

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Her political predilection doesn't preclude her subject matter expertise on Europe. That runs both ways despite which side you're on. If this was a Trump matter I wouldn't waste my time.

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aggiehawg said:

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Rossticus said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Fiona Hill? The woman who testified during the first impeachment that she believed the Steele dossier was likely Russian disinformation.

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Her political predilection doesn't preclude her subject matter expertise on Europe. That runs both ways despite which side you're on. If this was a Trump matter I wouldn't waste my time.

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She's a Soros State Department wienie. Has worked for Soros in between stints at State and the NSC.

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

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House caught fire in Stanytsa Luhanska as result of shelling https://t.co/yguPvF3pIZ pic.twitter.com/Yc7pgYgR35 via @tweetsNV #Ukraine

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 17, 2022

Quote:

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After 30 Years of Peace, Ukraine Crisis Shakes Europeans
. . .
Ulrike Franke is a self-confessed German millennial, a defense analyst who worries about her generation's allergy to the military, especially as it moves into positions of power.

"After 30 years of peace," she wrote last year in a well-read essay, "German millennials have a hard time adjusting to the world we are living in now. We struggle to think in terms of interests, we struggle with the concept of geopolitical power, and we struggle with military power being an element of geopolitical power."

Russia's massive and open military threat to Ukraine, she and others say, is now shaking a sense of complacency among young and old Europeans alike who have never known war, hot or cold. For some, at least, the moment is an awakening as the threat of war grows real.

But just how far Europe is prepared to go in shifting from a world where peace and security were taken for granted remains to be seen. For decades Europeans have paid relatively little in money, lives or resources for their defense and paid even less attention, sheltering under an American nuclear umbrella left over from the Cold War.

That debate had begun to shift in recent years, even before Russia's menacing of Ukraine, with talk of a more robust and independent European strategic and defense posture. But the crisis has done as much to expose European weakness on security issues as it has to fortify its sense of unity.

Ms. Franke, 34, a senior fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, is not convinced that anything short of a major Russian invasion of Ukraine will very much alter public opinion.

"We're having in Europe and Germany a status quo problem," she said in an interview. "We're very comfortable with this version of European security, and most people don't realize that to defend this status quo we need to act."

The elite feels the cold wind from Russia, she said, but "on the level of public opinion, people want to be left alone and for nothing to touch them."
. . .
Daniela Schwarzer, who ran the German Council on Foreign Relations and now manages Europe and Eurasia for the Open Society Foundations, thinks that "the image of Russia has changed a lot."

"Even in Germany there is a sober realism that our relations with Russia and our energy policy have to be dealt with in a much more strategic way than generally acknowledged in the past," she said.

But even after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Germany and Europe did very little to diminish their energy dependency on Russia or to prepare for Moscow weaponizing energy supplies.

With the new Ukraine crisis, that is quickly changing, she said.

Europeans bordering Russia have always warned about Moscow, but other Europeans farther away now see the point. "There is now the perception that conflict on our continent is possible," Ms. Schwarzer said.
. . .
"But this conflict would have a different dimension, since it so directly opposes the West and Russia, and is seen as proof that the current European security order no longer provides security," she said.

Peter Ricketts, a former British ambassador to France now in the House of Lords, agrees. This conflict has put "war back into focus again in the trans-Atlantic world," he said.

For the younger generation, concerned, like the German Greens, with the environment and focused on human rights and gender and racial equality, "this is 19th-century policy erupting and crashing into their 21st-century concerns," he said.

In the larger sense, Mr. Ricketts said, the conflict reminds Europeans of the importance of NATO and of American leadership in the trans-Atlantic alliance. "Faith in talking to Russia rather than deterring will be severely damaged by this," he said.

A major Russian military action would bring about more military spending, push NATO to increase troop deployments closer to Russia, "deepen the chasm between Russia and the West and push Russia more into the hands of China and the renminbi zone, with Russia a small partner," Mr. Ricketts said.

Already NATO countries, including Britain, France, Germany and the United States, have moved troops, aircraft and ships to shore up member states from Poland and the Baltics to Romania, with France offering a more permanent deployment in Romania. Those deployments may last for some time.

There will also be new debate about the push by Emmanuel Macron, the French president, for European strategic autonomy and resilience. A European security crisis where the European Union has little to add beyond the threat of sanctions troubles many. But there is no easy or quick answer, suggested Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House.

"This really does bring the security element to the fore, and it's not what the E.U. is best suited to manage," he said. "It will mean treating NATO more seriously as the anchor of European security and not overplaying E.U. strategic autonomy."

European security still comes only with American leadership, he said, adding: "Maybe this crisis is telling that to Europeans, some of whom don't like it."
. . .
But even in France, during an election campaign, the crisis "reinforces the idea of NATO as the guarantor of territorial security for Europe rather than any illusion of European defense," said Clia Belin of the Brookings Institution, even as it might "give an electric shock" to countries like Germany that have devalued security concerns for so long.
. . .

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

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Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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The average infantry? Not. Spetznaz (sp?), drones and a good bit of their armored forces? They'll have light amplification and the drones/air will likely be running thermal especially with ground temps in the 30's/40s once you get the Ukrainians moving and out of positions it would likely be a large advantage for the Russians. Also to the sun position only a few of their axis's of attack would be from the east. The 2nd most important one out of Belgorod where they have a LOT of men and equipment is from there. But the most important, at least to my mind, toward Kyiv to isolate, surround and capture both the government and the weight of the country would be North-South. You can't factor everything on one position. If Belgorod doesn't move or does extra shelling and air to mud air work that's not going to throw off your whole offensive and in fact the uncertainty might help paralyze the opposing general staff with indecision.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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LMCane said:

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aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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The average infantry? Not. Spetznaz (sp?), drones and a good bit of their armored forces? They'll have light amplification and the drones/air will likely be running thermal especially with ground temps in the 30's/40s once you get the Ukrainians moving and out of positions it would likely be a large advantage for the Russians. Also to the sun position only a few of their axis's of attack would be from the east. The 2nd most important one out of Belgorod where they have a LOT of men and equipment is from there. But the most important, at least to my mind, toward Kyiv to isolate, surround and capture both the government and the weight of the country would be North-South. You can't factor everything on one position. If Belgorod doesn't move or does extra shelling and air to mud air work that's not going to throw off your whole offensive and in fact the uncertainty might help paralyze the opposing general staff with indecision.

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what does Zelensky and Klitschko do if this thing kicks off?!

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Ukrainian president @ZelenskyyUa says that there is no other path for #Ukraine than joining @NATO:https://t.co/WNKcnBw79O

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 17, 2022

aezmvp said:

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Ukrainian president @ZelenskyyUa says that there is no other path for #Ukraine than joining @NATO:https://t.co/WNKcnBw79O

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 17, 2022

Uh that will calm things down.

Sorry I'm doing a quick catch up. The amount of escalation from both sides is ramping up. I'm not sure what the Ukrainians are thinking here. Maybe that there really isn't a down side because the Russians are going to go anyway. The Estonian intelligence service is saying publicly that they think the Russians will try and do in Southern Ukraine what they did in Luhansk and Donbass but You do that without putting 150,000 soldiers on 3 borders.

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aezmvp said:

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LMCane said:

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aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

---

if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

---

The average infantry? Not. Spetznaz (sp?), drones and a good bit of their armored forces? They'll have light amplification and the drones/air will likely be running thermal especially with ground temps in the 30's/40s once you get the Ukrainians moving and out of positions it would likely be a large advantage for the Russians. Also to the sun position only a few of their axis's of attack would be from the east. The 2nd most important one out of Belgorod where they have a LOT of men and equipment is from there. But the most important, at least to my mind, toward Kyiv to isolate, surround and capture both the government and the weight of the country would be North-South. You can't factor everything on one position. If Belgorod doesn't move or does extra shelling and air to mud air work that's not going to throw off your whole offensive and in fact the uncertainty might help paralyze the opposing general staff with indecision.

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what does Zelensky and Klitschko do if this thing kicks off?!

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Best guess is Zelensky risks sticking it out in Kyiv. And Klitschko as well. I'm sure that if the Russians get in a certain range they'll try and get him out, might even try and do that at the kick off. But The guy has always been a kinda in your face populist. He funded a volunteer battalion if memory serves during the previous stuff 8 years ago. I think he'd try and stay as long as possible. Which might not be very long really.

Edit: Zelensky was at the front lines in Luhansk region today.

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GAC06 said:

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Kind of shocking Zelensky would say that now after downplaying this thing for so long. Is there a direct link for that? I don't see anything about it at the bbc site

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aezmvp said:

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Ukrainian president @ZelenskyyUa says that there is no other path for #Ukraine than joining @NATO:https://t.co/WNKcnBw79O

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 17, 2022

Uh that will calm things down.

Sorry I'm doing a quick catch up. The amount of escalation from both sides is ramping up. I'm not sure what the Ukrainians are thinking here. Maybe that there really isn't a down side because the Russians are going to go anyway. The Estonian intelligence service is saying publicly that they think the Russians will try and do in Southern Ukraine what they did in Luhansk and Donbass but You do that without putting 150,000 soldiers on 3 borders.

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Rossticus said:

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aezmvp said:

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Ukrainian president @ZelenskyyUa says that there is no other path for #Ukraine than joining @NATO:https://t.co/WNKcnBw79O

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 17, 2022

Uh that will calm things down.

Sorry I'm doing a quick catch up. The amount of escalation from both sides is ramping up. I'm not sure what the Ukrainians are thinking here. Maybe that there really isn't a down side because the Russians are going to go anyway. The Estonian intelligence service is saying publicly that they think the Russians will try and do in Southern Ukraine what they did in Luhansk and Donbass but You do that without putting 150,000 soldiers on 3 borders.

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Russia will never allow Ukraine to exist as an independent sovereign nation outside of their control (see Belarus). Ukraine wants what all western democratically fashioned countries want and that's to determine their own fate by the will of their people.

They want European economic ties, they want to self govern by way of a western Democratic system. Russia will never allow them that voluntarily. Hence there is only one course of action. As Americans we, of any country, should be able to understand them and empathize.

Better to go down fighting for freedom than capitulate and slowly be eaten alive by Putin's beast.

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LMCane said:

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aezmvp said:

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Ukrainian president @ZelenskyyUa says that there is no other path for #Ukraine than joining @NATO:https://t.co/WNKcnBw79O

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 17, 2022

Uh that will calm things down.

Sorry I'm doing a quick catch up. The amount of escalation from both sides is ramping up. I'm not sure what the Ukrainians are thinking here. Maybe that there really isn't a down side because the Russians are going to go anyway. The Estonian intelligence service is saying publicly that they think the Russians will try and do in Southern Ukraine what they did in Luhansk and Donbass but You do that without putting 150,000 soldiers on 3 borders.

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that is war if Zelensky really just stated that Ukraine is going for NATO membership

that was the least crazy demand for Putin

if even that one the Ukrainians throw back in the Russians' face, I can't see Putin backing down.

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Rossticus said:

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Reposting here. Posted elsewhere because I'm fed up with the narrative that the USA is so weak that Joe Biden automatically makes us a loser at everything, everywhere.

You're overestimating Biden's involvement in this and a potential Taiwan engagement unless he just inexplicably chooses to back out. There are too many other players involved in both matters. If this was unilateral US action then I'd get your point but we're talking about Biden PLUS the leaders of most of Europe. President dementia's impact is sufficiently diluted.

The whole "US is automatically a loser because Biden is president" is starting to piss me off. I don't define myself or my country by who the temporarily elected leader is. Russia IS Vladimir Putin. The United States of America IS NOT Joe ****ing Biden. We have a lot of brilliant and brave folks working on our behalf and I refuse to discount their impact based on one doddering old man.

Even in the midst of the Cold War, Reagan's onset of Alzheimer's didn't sink us. FDR didn't sink us in WW2. Biden will not sink us. We're better than that. We're more than that.

This is far more on the Obama administration (now President creepy pee-paw included) setting the stage with their "non deterrence doctrine". They set this stage but we're not going to be defined by them.

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LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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Reposting here. Posted elsewhere because I'm fed up with the narrative that the USA is so weak that Joe Biden automatically makes us a loser at everything, everywhere.

You're overestimating Biden's involvement in this and a potential Taiwan engagement unless he just inexplicably chooses to back out. There are too many other players involved in both matters. If this was unilateral US action then I'd get your point but we're talking about Biden PLUS the leaders of most of Europe. President dementia's impact is sufficiently diluted.

The whole "US is automatically a loser because Biden is president" is starting to piss me off. I don't define myself or my country by who the temporarily elected leader is. Russia IS Vladimir Putin. The United States of America IS NOT Joe ****ing Biden. We have a lot of brilliant and brave folks working on our behalf and I refuse to discount their impact based on one doddering old man.

Even in the midst of the Cold War, Reagan's onset of Alzheimer's didn't sink us. FDR didn't sink us in WW2. Biden will not sink us. We're better than that. We're more than that.

This is far more on the Obama administration (now President creepy pee-paw included) setting the stage with their "non deterrence doctrine". They set this stage but we're not going to be defined by them.

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Reagan did not have Alzheimer's until he left office.

he was basically Biden in his last year of 1988

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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Did the Russian Generals just watch Josey Wales?

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BREAKING: Footage of the invasion of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/euJbU9hTHR

— 🅹🅾🅴🆈աrecκ ☭ (@joeywreck) February 17, 2022

Putin & Biden preparing for war in Ukraine.....!

🤣 pic.twitter.com/PCcIWKkaLr

— Zaid Hamid (@ZaidZamanHamid) February 17, 2022

Putin's Ukraine strategy#RussiaUkraineCrisis #russianinvasion pic.twitter.com/nJ2a8nEgfu

— Samar Dwivedi (@_SAM619_) February 16, 2022

#UKRAINE/@Reuters—The straw that broke the camel’s back. Reuters reportedly decided to terminate its livestream of #Russia|n invasion of the #Kiev #Maidan square after some enterprising entrepreneur started using a drone to advertise the sale of his garage in #Solomyanka. pic.twitter.com/fyNbnywujL

— Gleb Bazov (@gbazov) February 16, 2022

Attention !!! 🚨 🚨 🚨

Confidential information from 🇺🇸 (Cia sources) , conformed that #Russia 🇷🇺 will invade #Ukraine 🇺🇦 , on 30 February !!! pic.twitter.com/q9tKrHhTdM

— Info Warrior - 1821 (@InfoWarriorNews) February 17, 2022

Biden: I’m sending Kamala to secure Ukraine’s border.

Ukraine: pic.twitter.com/nk0OmIsG6k

— Lauren Boebert (@laurenboebert) February 9, 2022

Imagery acquired by @capellaspace on 16FEB2021 shows loading/unloading activity of a Ropucha-class LST at Sevastopol. (sry typo fix*) pic.twitter.com/PfIBfTJSN7

— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) February 17, 2022

Nearly half of Russian forces massed near Ukraine are now within 30 miles (48 km) of the border, British sources say - Guardian

— BNO News (@BNONews) February 17, 2022

GAC06 said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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if/when the Russkies invade..

would they kick it off in darkness or during the daylight?

---

Personally, I'd expect probably twilight or daybreak. Daybreak would put light behind the Russians and silhouette their forces. Twilight if limited capacity with optics or other equipment would limit the amount they could effectively move until complete darkness. I don't know how well equipped for the night the Russian military at large is though.

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Russia isn't as good at night as we are but they probably still have an advantage over the Ukrainians. If that tweet about about shelling in Luhansk is accurate, we may be seeing this kick off

Javelins work great at night though

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BREAKING: The Times reports the UK government believes Russia has decided to invade Ukraine

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 17, 2022