Rossticus said:

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Russian foreign Ministry comments on response:

it is inappropriate to demand to withdraw troops from certain regions of Russia. Russia demands Ukraine implements Minsk agreements, the West should stop weapons delivery to Ukraine, withdraw what was delivered already, recall all instructors and advisors from Ukraine, prohibition of NATO joint exercises with Ukraine. Russia demands all U.S. troops and weapons withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic countries. Russia expects proposals on non-expansion of NATO. Russia highlights that questions on arms control cannot be considered separately from other points

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This confirms it. Nobody is backing down. There are no commonly accepted points for negotiation. Russia taking an all or nothing stance. "Give us what we want or we'll try and take it".

redsquirrelAG said:

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Is Russia advancing into Alaska yet on the empirical offensive to take over the world?

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What the hell are you blabbering about?

Rossticus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian foreign Ministry comments on response:

it is inappropriate to demand to withdraw troops from certain regions of Russia. Russia demands Ukraine implements Minsk agreements, the West should stop weapons delivery to Ukraine, withdraw what was delivered already, recall all instructors and advisors from Ukraine, prohibition of NATO joint exercises with Ukraine. Russia demands all U.S. troops and weapons withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic countries. Russia expects proposals on non-expansion of NATO. Russia highlights that questions on arms control cannot be considered separately from other points

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This confirms it. Nobody is backing down. There are no commonly accepted points for negotiation. Russia taking an all or nothing stance. "Give us what we want or we'll try and take it".

---

Reminiscent of Serbia circa 1914.

I realize it doesn't have to make sense but how would they be trying to justify an occupation of the entirety of Ukraine from the supposed actions of two tiny regions?

Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian foreign Ministry comments on response:

it is inappropriate to demand to withdraw troops from certain regions of Russia. Russia demands Ukraine implements Minsk agreements, the West should stop weapons delivery to Ukraine, withdraw what was delivered already, recall all instructors and advisors from Ukraine, prohibition of NATO joint exercises with Ukraine. Russia demands all U.S. troops and weapons withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic countries. Russia expects proposals on non-expansion of NATO. Russia highlights that questions on arms control cannot be considered separately from other points

---

This confirms it. Nobody is backing down. There are no commonly accepted points for negotiation. Russia taking an all or nothing stance. "Give us what we want or we'll try and take it".

---

Reminiscent of Serbia circa 1914.

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Russian demands are utterly insane and unrealistic. That, of course, is the point.

UK, Poland, and Ukraine announce trilateral… cooperation?

Quote:

---

To this end, we agreed today to develop a Trilateral Memorandum of Co-operation. This will demonstrate our commitment to further strengthening the strategic cooperation and engagement between our three nations on the highest priority issues in support of Ukraine.

We will work together to advance our cooperation, which includes but not limited to co-ordinating support to the International Crimea Platform, increasing our collaboration on cyber security, energy security, and boosting strategic communications to counter disinformation.

The UK and Poland will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.

---

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-poland-and-ukraine-17-february-2022

If Central Europe = Poland, not going to happen

Putin really hates Catholics. This is likely his larger goal, to isolate Poland, yet again.

I personally use the Flightradar24 app.

This is why you can see them, especially in Europe, because of how dense the population is/how built up infrastructure is.

https://flightaware.com/adsb/mlat/

Mode S which is what MLAT is using provides traffic advisories and resolution advisories. Basically tells you when another plane is too close and then how to fly to avoid the other plane.

Boils down to it currently being safer to have mode S on versus hiding what's flying where.

JobSecurity said:

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I realize it doesn't have to make sense but how would they be trying to justify an occupation of the entirety of Ukraine from the supposed actions of two tiny regions?

---

Unless they roll all the way through Moldova, which I don't think is realistic, they won't occupy the whole thing. They will invade. Depose the current government with special forces and paratroopers cutting off the escape routes from Kyiv while armored columns move in from Belarus with advances especially out of Belgorod and Crimea to pin down and keep Ukrainian military forces pinned against the Dnieper.

Then they install a puppet regime, get rights out of Odessa, carve off the Russian portions of the Ukraine for eventual annexation.

That's my read on the objectives.

JobSecurity said:

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I realize it doesn't have to make sense but how would they be trying to justify an occupation of the entirety of Ukraine from the supposed actions of two tiny regions?

---

Because they're going to send troops into sovereign Ukrainian territory under the pretext of humanitarian aid and protection of ethnic Russians and Ukrainian is going to try and stop them. Russia will call it an act of war and engage fully.

Like if Mexico said that the US were inflicting atrocities on illegal aliens in the valley and sent troops into Texas to "protect them". Then when we try to stop them Mexico accused us of aggression and sent in an invasionary force across the entire US/Mexico border.

Rossticus said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian foreign Ministry comments on response:

it is inappropriate to demand to withdraw troops from certain regions of Russia. Russia demands Ukraine implements Minsk agreements, the West should stop weapons delivery to Ukraine, withdraw what was delivered already, recall all instructors and advisors from Ukraine, prohibition of NATO joint exercises with Ukraine. Russia demands all U.S. troops and weapons withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic countries. Russia expects proposals on non-expansion of NATO. Russia highlights that questions on arms control cannot be considered separately from other points

---

This confirms it. Nobody is backing down. There are no commonly accepted points for negotiation. Russia taking an all or nothing stance. "Give us what we want or we'll try and take it".

---

Reminiscent of Serbia circa 1914.

---

Russian demands are utterly insane and unrealistic. That, of course, is the point.

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Yup. So were Austria-Hungary's. Which was also the point back then.

Just hope there is enough deterrence in play to make a difference.

Ag In Ok said:

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If Central Europe = Poland, not going to happen

Putin really hates Catholics. This is likely his larger goal, to isolate Poland, yet again.

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I don't read it this way but maybe? If by isolate you mean eventually force Poland, the Balkans and the Baltics out of NATO? Sure I think that's in the long term goals but it's not on the near term agenda imho.

LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Lots of pictures of sv-300 and s-400 SAM batteries. Maybe looking for those? Do we still use the Wild Weasel F-16 variant for counter HARM missions? I wonder if we have any around?

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The RQ-4 drone, forte 12, made a 180 and looks to be returning to base. Shortly after it made the turn Homer49 took off. Homer49 is apparently an RC-135U and per Wikipedia specializes in collecting intelligence on radar systems.

There's been F-16's over Romania off and on today. To the best of my knowledge, the airframe can fulfill the SEAD role with HARM missiles. I'm not sure on the range of the Russian systems though. I highly doubt any kind of involvement unless one of ours gets shot.

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where does everyone get this flight information?

it seems insane that USAF assets can be tracked by Joe Shmoe sitting at his computer in Flower Mound, Texas.

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It's ADS-B data, which must be transmitted for air traffic control purposes. Self-reporting position is basically replacing radar in more and more places. If military aircraft are operating in U.S. civilian airspace, they're supposed to enable ADS-B, but there are definitely exceptions where they can disable this.

ETA.. looks like CharlieBrown17 beat me to it.

aezmvp said:

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JobSecurity said:

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I realize it doesn't have to make sense but how would they be trying to justify an occupation of the entirety of Ukraine from the supposed actions of two tiny regions?

---

Unless they roll all the way through Moldova, which I don't think is realistic, they won't occupy the whole thing. They will invade. Depose the current government with special forces and paratroopers cutting off the escape routes from Kyiv while armored columns move in from Belarus with advances especially out of Belgorod and Crimea to pin down and keep Ukrainian military forces pinned against the Dnieper.

Then they install a puppet regime, get rights out of Odessa, carve off the Russian portions of the Ukraine for eventual annexation.

That's my read on the objectives.

---

Yep. They only need to destabilize and gain control of the government. At that point it's just the Belarusian playbook all over again.

Russia's TASS news agency has posted the Russian Foreign Ministry response in its entirety. While you can translate the website to English, the statement is quite long. I'm sure one of the western news agencies will pick it up.

Rapier108 said:

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TChaney said:

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USAF RC-135S Cobra Ball departed Eielson AB Alaska, last pos. about an hour ago.

BENDY95 61-2663 pic.twitter.com/qMENm3B1nj

— RivetJoint (@SpeckleBelly64) February 17, 2022

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Most likely a normal reconnaissance flight along Russia's Pacific coast and especially the Kamchatka Peninsula.

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That's a Cobra Ball... equipped with specialized optics to examine ballistic missile plumes.

akaggie05 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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TChaney said:

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USAF RC-135S Cobra Ball departed Eielson AB Alaska, last pos. about an hour ago.

BENDY95 61-2663 pic.twitter.com/qMENm3B1nj

— RivetJoint (@SpeckleBelly64) February 17, 2022

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Most likely a normal reconnaissance flight along Russia's Pacific coast and especially the Kamchatka Peninsula.

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That's a Cobra Ball... equipped with specialized optics to examine ballistic missile plumes.

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Kamchatka is where the Russians test the their missile systems and have tested their ICBM's. The Russian Navy is supposed to also hold training now or in the not so distant future that would likely include this area.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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UK, Poland, and Ukraine announce trilateral… cooperation?

Quote:

---

To this end, we agreed today to develop a Trilateral Memorandum of Co-operation. This will demonstrate our commitment to further strengthening the strategic cooperation and engagement between our three nations on the highest priority issues in support of Ukraine.

We will work together to advance our cooperation, which includes but not limited to co-ordinating support to the International Crimea Platform, increasing our collaboration on cyber security, energy security, and boosting strategic communications to counter disinformation.

The UK and Poland will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.

---

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-poland-and-ukraine-17-february-2022

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If I am Putin I am invading today just to forestall these types of developments

if Putin doesn't act, Ukraine and Zelensky are going to be MORE powerful than before.

LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

---

UK, Poland, and Ukraine announce trilateral… cooperation?

Quote:

---

To this end, we agreed today to develop a Trilateral Memorandum of Co-operation. This will demonstrate our commitment to further strengthening the strategic cooperation and engagement between our three nations on the highest priority issues in support of Ukraine.

We will work together to advance our cooperation, which includes but not limited to co-ordinating support to the International Crimea Platform, increasing our collaboration on cyber security, energy security, and boosting strategic communications to counter disinformation.

The UK and Poland will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.

---

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-poland-and-ukraine-17-february-2022

---

If I am Putin I am invading today just to forestall these types of developments

if Putin doesn't act, Ukraine and Zelensky are going to be MORE powerful than before.

---

We're getting out ahead of this, which defies Putin's expectations. He thought that between NATO, US, UK, and our desire to avoid conflict that this would all bog down and result in a stranded Ukraine which illuminated the weakness and selfishness of the west. We managed to transcend the likelihood of this happening. Thank God for small favors.

LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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UK, Poland, and Ukraine announce trilateral… cooperation?

Quote:

---

To this end, we agreed today to develop a Trilateral Memorandum of Co-operation. This will demonstrate our commitment to further strengthening the strategic cooperation and engagement between our three nations on the highest priority issues in support of Ukraine.

We will work together to advance our cooperation, which includes but not limited to co-ordinating support to the International Crimea Platform, increasing our collaboration on cyber security, energy security, and boosting strategic communications to counter disinformation.

The UK and Poland will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.

---

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-poland-and-ukraine-17-february-2022

---

If I am Putin I am invading today just to forestall these types of developments

if Putin doesn't act, Ukraine and Zelensky are going to be MORE powerful than before.

---

The question is whether or not this is just lip service and whether Putin thinks its just lip service or whether he believes there is force behind these words.

jabberwalkie09 said:

---

UK, Poland, and Ukraine announce trilateral… cooperation?

Quote:

---

To this end, we agreed today to develop a Trilateral Memorandum of Co-operation. This will demonstrate our commitment to further strengthening the strategic cooperation and engagement between our three nations on the highest priority issues in support of Ukraine.

We will work together to advance our cooperation, which includes but not limited to co-ordinating support to the International Crimea Platform, increasing our collaboration on cyber security, energy security, and boosting strategic communications to counter disinformation.

The UK and Poland will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.

---

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-poland-and-ukraine-17-february-2022

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So they're setting up some sort of Trilateral Commission?

I don't think anyone really knows what he is thinking - i can only go off of what he has said in the past. I bet they are working with Chinese intelligence on what we are thinking, and adjusting accordingly.
I still believe his best play is to drag this out emphasizing how little support we will provide a partner in a time of need. China will modify and do the same in due time.

China has already been conducting pre invasion psy-ops in Taiwan. Broadcasting (even leaflet air drops) that they're going to retake Taiwan no matter the cost and that their allies, particularly the US, will abandon them.

Rossticus said:

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China has already been conducting pre invasion psy-ops in Taiwan. Broadcasting (even leaflet air drops) that they're going to retake Taiwan no matter the cost and that their allies, particularly the US, will abandon them.

---

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-watching-ukraine-crisis-concern-anxiety-says-diplomat-n1289101

Quote:

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. . .
Taiwan is watching events in Ukraine with "much concern and anxiety" but plans to make any possible Chinese military attack on Taiwan "too painful" to consider, Taipei's representative in Washington, Bi-khim Hsiao, said in an interview.
. . .
Asked about a recent joint declaration from Moscow and Beijing in which Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed support for Russia's stance on Ukraine, Hsiao said the two countries were cooperating in ways that posed a challenge to democracies.

"I think it's pretty clear to all of us around the world that those undermining stability are China and Russia," she said.

Russia's troop buildup around Ukraine began last year, but Taiwanese and U.S. officials say China has been engaged in threatening behavior toward Taipei for years, including deploying missiles near the island and repeatedly flying into the island's air defense zone.

Hsiao, who was raised in Taiwan and educated at Oberlin College in Ohio and Columbia University in New York, said Taiwan has made it clear that it wants to resolve the dispute with Beijing peacefully and has focused on strengthening its defenses to send a signal to Beijing that it would pay a price for any aggression.

"The Chinese must not miscalculate our resolve to defend Taiwan's democracy and the peace and stability of the region," Hsiao said, adding, "Our goal, everything that we are doing, is to bolster our self-defenses in a way that would make any consideration or operationalization of the threat too painful to consider."
. . .
China has accused the U.S. of fueling tensions in the Pacific with naval patrols, trying to block Beijing's rise as a world power and provoking conflict by selling fighter jets and other weaponry to Taiwan.
. . .
Hsiao said Taiwan and the U.S. were engaged in "intense cooperation and engagement to bolster Taiwan's self-defenses" with the aim of persuading Beijing not to launch a military attack.

"We are not in a position to engage in an arms race with China. What we are doing is to fortify our defenses in a smart and strategic way so that we have the capacity to deter a military threat," she said.

Governments that have refused to sever ties with Taiwan or that have criticized Beijing have faced economic retaliation from China, including those of Lithuania and Australia, she said. Democratic countries need to rally, she said, and show China that Beijing's "coercion" will not succeed.

"Bullies bully because they think they can get away with it," she said. "And I think it's all the more important now that democracies work together to look into the toolbox we have in terms of countering economic coercion."

China's crushing of democracy in Hong Kong had "destroyed any credibility" that Beijing would be willing to grant more democratic rights or autonomy to some regions under the "One Country, Two Systems" formula, she said.
. . .

---

is it possible that Putin is planning to just slice off another section of the Ukraine? (a la the Crimea)

and not actually invade or conquer the entire country

W said:

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is it possible that Putin is planning to just slice off another section of the Ukraine? (a la the Crimea)

and not actually invade or conquer the entire country

---

Still an act of war that Ukraine has signaled as an unacceptable act that they will oppose militarily.

Here's where social media makes things interesting. Self propelled artillery near Ukrainian border in Borki.

Борки , Бєлгородська обл. 17.02.2022 pic.twitter.com/CMVjyNaptL

— 4emberlen (@4emberlen) February 17, 2022

Rossticus said:

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W said:

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is it possible that Putin is planning to just slice off another section of the Ukraine? (a la the Crimea)

and not actually invade or conquer the entire country

---

Still an act of war that Ukraine has signaled as an unacceptable act that they will oppose militarily.

---

They're tolerating the status quo that has the Russians nominally in charge of a fairly large swath of territory in the East with "militias" running the show. Some are militias but there are plenty of honest to God Russian troops in there helping run communications, intelligence/counter intel, artillery, etc. They're just not in Russian uniforms. Been this way for a bit, that's why Rossticus was talking about the Donbass/Luhansk regions being recognized as a bright red line. Formalizing that or annexing it (much less likely imo) would be a massive massive escalation.

That's a nice deployment by a cross roads a few miles from the border and not in a bunched group or at a laager. Looks like an aggressive forward deployment to me.

aezmvp said:

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That's a nice deployment by a cross roads a few miles from the border and not in a bunched group or at a laager. Looks like an aggressive forward deployment to me.

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"Training Exercises"

What some on this board have intimated as well.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was expecting to intimidate Ukraine, the European Union and NATO by amassing troops at the Ukrainian border, but received a backlash instead, former presidential advisor Fiona Hill believes.https://t.co/Avne0FN9bb

— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) February 17, 2022

2/3 of the RAF's RC-135s are currently up pic.twitter.com/uRWVDROe4N

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 17, 2022

Fiona Hill? The woman who testified during the first impeachment that she believed the Steele dossier was likely Russian disinformation.

aggiehawg said:

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Fiona Hill? The woman who testified during the first impeachment that she believed the Steele dossier was likely Russian disinformation.

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Her political predilection doesn't preclude her subject matter expertise on Europe. That runs both ways despite which side you're on. If this was a Trump matter or domestic political matter I wouldn't waste my time. Discounting the validity of people's experience in all areas due to politics is a favorite Liberal tactic that I don't find prudent (NOT calling you a liberal, to be clear).

Additionally, the article is short and doesn't focus exclusively on her. There are a couple of other interesting points of information.