Reports of smoke escaping from the Russian embassy in Kiev. pic.twitter.com/L2E7FPUNQf

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022

To understand level of escalation, here is a chart of number of ceasefire violations per 24 hours reported by JFO starting 1th October 2021 pic.twitter.com/mUofxZgbcg

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 17, 2022

Yeah that seems like a big jump but I'm betting to provoke a response.

It's getting harder and harder to see how this does NOT transpire into a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Deputy US Ambassador Gorman expelled from Russia https://t.co/s4Zv8VrP1b #Russia

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 17, 2022

There is still plenty of time to save the women for some of you.

USAF RC-135S Cobra Ball departed Eielson AB Alaska, last pos. about an hour ago.

BENDY95 61-2663 pic.twitter.com/qMENm3B1nj

— RivetJoint (@SpeckleBelly64) February 17, 2022

Russian state media (similar to the Washington Post): https://t.co/yQ5yCnk7es

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) February 17, 2022

TChaney said:

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USAF RC-135S Cobra Ball departed Eielson AB Alaska, last pos. about an hour ago.

BENDY95 61-2663 pic.twitter.com/qMENm3B1nj

— RivetJoint (@SpeckleBelly64) February 17, 2022

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Most likely a normal reconnaissance flight along Russia's Pacific coast and especially the Kamchatka Peninsula.

TChaney said:

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Reports of smoke escaping from the Russian embassy in Kiev. pic.twitter.com/L2E7FPUNQf

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022

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It is now confirmed that the smoke was seen yesterday and not today as originally thought.

Thanks @ikhurshudyan and @MarQs__ for the update :) https://t.co/wktCY6vdbA

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022

BTHOB said:

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It's getting harder and harder to see how this does NOT transpire into a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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I dont think Russia is going to invade

Agthatbuilds said:

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BTHOB said:

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It's getting harder and harder to see how this does NOT transpire into a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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I dont think Russia is going to invade

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At this point, I think Russia is going to invade.
But, I hope you're right.

BTHOB said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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BTHOB said:

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It's getting harder and harder to see how this does NOT transpire into a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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I dont think Russia is going to invade

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At this point, I think Russia is going to invade.
But, I hope you're right.

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I'm cautiously optimistic. But if we continue to see provocations from Russia (likely) we'll see. Russia is looking for a provocation to my eyes, I'm not sure why other than they want some light diplomatic cover.

Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

Rossticus said:

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Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

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That would definitely do it. Ukraine would reject and then Russia would go in to "protect these people, prevent racial genocide, etc. etc."

Just my opinion but the reaction from Russian media and sources makes me think that the 16th announcement by the US probably scrambled their thinking a bit. We don't normally do stuff like that. We tend to sit on intel and not make announcements like that. May have been the best move of the Biden administration so far. Not a high bar, granted, but maybe credit where it is due.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Deputy US Ambassador Gorman expelled from Russia https://t.co/s4Zv8VrP1b #Russia

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 17, 2022

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I haven't seen any reasons yet, but one would assume the Kremlin is attributing the leaks to the embassy (obvious) and holding him accountable.

aezmvp said:

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Rossticus said:

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Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

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That would definitely do it. Ukraine would reject and then Russia would go in to "protect these people, prevent racial genocide, etc. etc."

Just my opinion but the reaction from Russian media and sources makes me think that the 16th announcement by the US probably scrambled their thinking a bit. We don't normally do stuff like that. We tend to sit on intel and not make announcements like that. May have been the best move of the Biden administration so far. Not a high bar, granted, but maybe credit where it is due.

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Not getting into specifics but can confirm your line of thought.

Rossticus said:

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Odd

BREAKING: Israel told Russia ahead of a possible invasion of Ukraine it will need help in evacuating its citizens & diplomats from the country. Israeli officials said the message was passed today in a phone call between foreign ministry DG @AlonUshpiz & Russian DFM Bogdanov

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) February 16, 2022

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why is that odd? hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian Jews moved to Israel in the 1990s

there are 30,000 Israelis who have Ukrainian citizenship living in Ukraine.

it's going to be hard to get them all out.

Rossticus said:

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Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

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more details here please

flesh out what you are hypothesizing

Rossticus said:

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Wasn't aware of Damascus. Explains why they're not focused on evac. Could also be doing us a solid and buying some time since Israel and Russia are cordial. Russia wouldn't want to piss them off by disrespecting the request. The fact that Israel would feel the need to ask further legitimizes the realistic possibility of some form of Russian incursion, IMO.

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another interesting and disturbing change-

while Russia has had air patrols and squadrons in Syria the last few years they have not challenged Israeli bombing missions which are directed at the Iranians/Hizbullah in Syria

suddenly a week ago, Russia started conducting JOINT air patrols with Syrian fighter planes over Syria.

not a good sign.

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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Odd

BREAKING: Israel told Russia ahead of a possible invasion of Ukraine it will need help in evacuating its citizens & diplomats from the country. Israeli officials said the message was passed today in a phone call between foreign ministry DG @AlonUshpiz & Russian DFM Bogdanov

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) February 16, 2022

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why is that odd? hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian Jews moved to Israel in the 1990s

there are 30,000 Israelis who have Ukrainian citizenship living in Ukraine.

it's going to be hard to get them all out.

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Because it legitimizes that an invasion is planned, against the Russian narrative. If this was not the case then Israel would have been quietly assured via direct communication that they had nothing nothing to worry about prior to their feeling the need to reach out AND release it publicly.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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TChaney said:

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Reports of smoke escaping from the Russian embassy in Kiev. pic.twitter.com/L2E7FPUNQf

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022

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It is now confirmed that the smoke was seen yesterday and not today as originally thought.

Thanks @ikhurshudyan and @MarQs__ for the update :) https://t.co/wktCY6vdbA

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 17, 2022

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burning all their documents like the Japs in 1941?

aezmvp said:

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We tend to sit on intel and not make announcements like that. May have been the best move of the Biden administration so far. Not a high bar, granted, but maybe credit where it is due.

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Then for sure it was a mistake they blundered in to.

Jayhawk said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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Russia is in Syria. Russia has been letting Israel hit targets in Syria without a word said. If Russia starts WW3 Russian units would be hit in Syria by Israel along with all Syria and Hezbollah sites. Plus Iran.
Basically annihilate the area.

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Not the smallest chance Israel gets into a fight with Russia because of some hegemonic contest between the US and Russia. Israel leverages the US military to its ends, not the other way around. Israel actually practices sound and realistic statesmanship based on their own national interests.

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Soviets nearly launched a nuclear strike in October 1973 after the israelis were able to counter-attack and cross the Suez Canal.

we have Russian planes flying 20 miles from the israeli border over the Golan heights and israeli planes firing missiles into Syria to destroy Iranian precision guided munitions

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

---

more details here please

flesh out what you are hypothesizing

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What aezmvp said. Once Russia officially recognizes those area of Ukraine as independent from Ukraine they can move on the territory under the pretext of providing aid and protection to the ethnic Russians who live there and the Russian military elements already occupying the territory. They're setting up a justifying narrative.

The west won't believe them but this isn't for the west. This is so that they can paint themselves as the good guys in countries where they either control the media or have strong disinformation networks (mostly Middle East, Asian, and Spanish speaking). They're not negotiating in good faith and, truth be told, aren't listening to us or Ukraine barring an offer of complete capitulation, which isn't happening.

EU and NATO are unifying around Ukraine. Buckle up.

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

---

more details here please

flesh out what you are hypothesizing

---

Not to put words in his mouth but my line of thinking is that if they do this (Duma has already passed a bill calling for Putin to recognize them to give Putin flexibility) then it basically carves out two new countries or semi states independent of Ukraine and from their territory. Obviously this is an act of war. It'd be like Mexico supplanting Texas with militias then Texas declaring Independence from the US at Mexico's behest.

The Ukraine has already said, repeatedly, that they will reject this. A large part of Russian propaganda efforts centers around Ukrainian atrocities, mass graves, shelling civilians that are ethnic Russians in those regions.

Russia knows this is a red line, so do the Ukrainians. For me it fits in best with their international propaganda and especially their domestic propaganda as justification.

That or some faked atrocity in those regions. The US announcement of a potential fake massacre video struck me as a real possibility. Not saying they couldn't still do that. Very easy to say the West knew about this and then claimed we would fake it to cover it up.

But the recognition would be a massive escalation.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Lots of pictures of sv-300 and s-400 SAM batteries. Maybe looking for those? Do we still use the Wild Weasel F-16 variant for counter HARM missions? I wonder if we have any around?

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The RQ-4 drone, forte 12, made a 180 and looks to be returning to base. Shortly after it made the turn Homer49 took off. Homer49 is apparently an RC-135U and per Wikipedia specializes in collecting intelligence on radar systems.

There's been F-16's over Romania off and on today. To the best of my knowledge, the airframe can fulfill the SEAD role with HARM missiles. I'm not sure on the range of the Russian systems though. I highly doubt any kind of involvement unless one of ours gets shot.

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where does everyone get this flight information?

it seems insane that USAF assets can be tracked by Joe Shmoe sitting at his computer in Flower Mound, Texas.

aezmvp said:

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LMCane said:

---

Rossticus said:

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Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

---

more details here please

flesh out what you are hypothesizing

---

Not to put words in his mouth but my line of thinking is that if they do this (Duma has already passed a bill calling for Putin to recognize them to give Putin flexibility) then it basically carves out two new countries or semi states independent of Ukraine and from their territory. Obviously this is an act of war. It'd be like Mexico supplanting Texas with militias then Texas declaring Independence from the US at Mexico's behest.

The Ukraine has already said, repeatedly, that they will reject this. A large part of Russian propaganda efforts centers around Ukrainian atrocities, mass graves, shelling civilians that are ethnic Russians in those regions.

Russia knows this is a red line, so do the Ukrainians. For me it fits in best with their international propaganda and especially their domestic propaganda as justification.

That or some faked atrocity in those regions. The US announcement of a potential fake massacre video struck me as a real possibility. Not saying they couldn't still do that. Very easy to say the West knew about this and then claimed we would fake it to cover it up.

But the recognition would be a massive escalation.

---

why wouldn't they just add Donbass and Luhansk to Russia?

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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aezmvp said:

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We tend to sit on intel and not make announcements like that. May have been the best move of the Biden administration so far. Not a high bar, granted, but maybe credit where it is due.

---

Then for sure it was a mistake they blundered in to.

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Biden isn't running this show. He signs off on things based on recommendation but this has gotten to the level of granularity where the pros have, in great part, taken the wheel. Not just here but US, UK, etc. He and the Dems will try to take credit but this is all military and intelligence at this point.

LMCane said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

---

more details here please

flesh out what you are hypothesizing

---

Not to put words in his mouth but my line of thinking is that if they do this (Duma has already passed a bill calling for Putin to recognize them to give Putin flexibility) then it basically carves out two new countries or semi states independent of Ukraine and from their territory. Obviously this is an act of war. It'd be like Mexico supplanting Texas with militias then Texas declaring Independence from the US at Mexico's behest.

The Ukraine has already said, repeatedly, that they will reject this. A large part of Russian propaganda efforts centers around Ukrainian atrocities, mass graves, shelling civilians that are ethnic Russians in those regions.

Russia knows this is a red line, so do the Ukrainians. For me it fits in best with their international propaganda and especially their domestic propaganda as justification.

That or some faked atrocity in those regions. The US announcement of a potential fake massacre video struck me as a real possibility. Not saying they couldn't still do that. Very easy to say the West knew about this and then claimed we would fake it to cover it up.

But the recognition would be a massive escalation.

---

why wouldn't they just add Donbass and Luhansk to Russia?

---

Ultimately that's part of the plan but all of this, as stated, is an act of war and egregious violation of international law. He has to fabricate an excuse, even if just to sell to allied countries and the people of Russia. Russian state media has been building the narrative of Ukrainian atrocities toward ethnic Russians since 2014. This is the culmination of a long term plan, not some big Putin got in his ass 6 months ago.

Rossticus said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

---

aezmvp said:

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We tend to sit on intel and not make announcements like that. May have been the best move of the Biden administration so far. Not a high bar, granted, but maybe credit where it is due.

---

Then for sure it was a mistake they blundered in to.

---

Biden isn't running this show. He signs off on things based on recommendation but this has gotten to the level of granularity where the pros have, in great part, taken the wheel. Not just here but US, UK, etc. He and the Dems will try to take credit but this is all military and intelligence at this point.

---

You might have seen that level of control from GHW Bush as a former CIA director or maybe Reagan, but it happened in such a way as to make me think it wasn't part of a direct decision. Was probably told at a Presidential Daily Brief or if there was a special meeting of his national security team. I could go look at logs but it probably wouldn't tell me much. Gut feeling from an amateur on my part.

Rossticus said:

---

LMCane said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

Look for Russian recognition of DNR/LNR as their threshold to begin.

---

more details here please

flesh out what you are hypothesizing

---

Not to put words in his mouth but my line of thinking is that if they do this (Duma has already passed a bill calling for Putin to recognize them to give Putin flexibility) then it basically carves out two new countries or semi states independent of Ukraine and from their territory. Obviously this is an act of war. It'd be like Mexico supplanting Texas with militias then Texas declaring Independence from the US at Mexico's behest.

The Ukraine has already said, repeatedly, that they will reject this. A large part of Russian propaganda efforts centers around Ukrainian atrocities, mass graves, shelling civilians that are ethnic Russians in those regions.

Russia knows this is a red line, so do the Ukrainians. For me it fits in best with their international propaganda and especially their domestic propaganda as justification.

That or some faked atrocity in those regions. The US announcement of a potential fake massacre video struck me as a real possibility. Not saying they couldn't still do that. Very easy to say the West knew about this and then claimed we would fake it to cover it up.

But the recognition would be a massive escalation.

---

why wouldn't they just add Donbass and Luhansk to Russia?

---

Ultimately that's part of the plan but all of this, as stated, is an act of war and egregious violation of international law.

---

Sausage strategy. First you break them off and keep them external autonomous, then independent then annex. Crimea was a different strategy but if you look at the area of Georgia that they split off it looks like a VERY similar playbook just on a much wider scale. IIRC the only reason that they didn't swallow up Georgia was the quick insertion of Georgian troops from Iraq/Afghanistan with US air cover/advisors coming with and neither the Russians or the US wanting to escalate things. But I wasn't privy to any details, just OSINT stuff that I could piece together.

Russian foreign Ministry comments on response:

it is inappropriate to demand to withdraw troops from certain regions of Russia. Russia demands Ukraine implements Minsk agreements, the West should stop weapons delivery to Ukraine, withdraw what was delivered already, recall all instructors and advisors from Ukraine, prohibition of NATO joint exercises with Ukraine. Russia demands all U.S. troops and weapons withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic countries. Russia expects proposals on non-expansion of NATO. Russia highlights that questions on arms control cannot be considered separately from other points

Is Russia advancing into Alaska yet on the empirical offensive to take over the world?