NPH- said:

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BTHOB said:

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tl;dr summary of going to war or not?

50:50

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lol thats exactly what I'm looking for!

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Coin flip. Russia is essentially fully drawn up for an invasion. Whole 9 yards. Pontoon bridges over rivers, field hospitals, multiple armies on several key regions including surged helicopter formations, lots of air assets including theatre and strategic missiles capable of hitting European capitals as deterrence and naval assets moved into the Black Sea.

We saw fueling bowsers moving in the region yesterday which we would expect 24-48 hours before an invasion.

GAC06 said:

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Every day that goes by is good for avoiding conflict. However Russia is still in position and they're still pushing some pretty transparent justifications for invading.

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Conversely, everyday that goes by makes this even more expensive to just be a bluff

He's still setting up pretext to justify additional troop movements into Donbas (plan B. Plan a was Ukrainian and NATO capitulation).

He's primarily setting up a narrative to sell within his sphere of control and to his allies who have tightly controlled/restricted information flow (China) in order to further demonize Europe and the US in the East thereby setting up next steps.

You can invade without "attacking" first. He's setting up Ukraine to have to either shoot first or allow Putin to send a flood of troops into Donbas undeterred as a "humanitarian force" that will subsequently take full control of the region.

Putin playing 4-D Chess......Biden playing Connect 4......

Salute CornPops Message said:

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Putin playing 4-D Chess......Biden playing Connect 4......

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Yep Putin is running rings around President Poopy Panties.

Louis_Botha said:

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Salute CornPops Message said:

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Putin playing 4-D Chess......Biden playing Connect 4......

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Yep Putin is running rings around President Poopy Panties.

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Oh, great. Someone opened the sock drawer.

Eliminatus said:

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BTHOB said:

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Just wait until the ballistic missile launches that are part of the "military drill" start happening... things are gonna spiral quickly, I think.

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Still waiting to randomly open up TA to see a war has started.

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I was thinking the other day about that stomach drop feeling when a TV show is interrupted for a special news bulletin. That 5-10 second waiting when you don't know if a war has started, a Space Shuttle has exploded, a Supreme Court justice kicked the bucket, or what.

I was half wondering if Putin would pick the Super Bowl to invade to just totally depants Biden while every American household was looking at their TVs.

https://liveuamap.com/

This is a neat spot to get caught up at.

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016?s=20&t=Lm9ie-K82ChuxK2Su1319A

Clob94 said:

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https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016?s=20&t=Lm9ie-K82ChuxK2Su1319A

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First of all, **** that guy.

Second, T-80's and T-90's seen in Belgorod. Videos likely taken yesterday imo. I had been wondering if we would get a look at this since most of the track vehicle videos are during nighttime, but looks like Russians are fine with tearing up their road infrastructure for an "exercise."

If you don’t have it, columns of T-90’s and T-80’s unloaded in Tamarovka, Belgorod, 27km from Ukraine, yesterday and today it seems and are driving away from the train station

Video of T-90’s uploaded 1 hour ago was taken from 50°40'22"N 36°14'15"E https://t.co/0eoVKyCrh4 pic.twitter.com/bXmXlppOcm

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) February 16, 2022

Gotta admire Putin he does not mess around.

I've been following that account too lol.

aezmvp said:

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I've been following that account too lol.

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Yeah, there's a few that are good follows. Doing hashtag or keyword searches right now is pointless since there are so many retweets, some of information several days old. The map link you posted is pretty great though.

Louis_Botha said:

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Gotta admire Putin he does not mess around.

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You do not have to admire Putin.

TriAg2010 said:

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Louis_Botha said:

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Gotta admire Putin he does not mess around.

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You do not have to admire Putin.

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Disagree! Don't like his positions but he's a hell of a leader for his people/ causes. Can you imagine if we had a strong leader, none of this BS would be happening

Maybe semantics; maybe not.

I do not admire Putin at all.

However, I can respect his strategies and tactics if I remove my personal beliefs from the situation. He's potentially executed a master class in politics against his foes here. Ultimate outcome will determine final opinion.

I don't admire him, but damn he is a welterweight going above his class. I respect him.

Louis_Botha said:

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Gotta admire Putin he does not mess around.

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I don't admire him in any sense of the word but he is extremely effective as an authoritarian autocrat, if that's your thing.

He's a twisted fork with no respect for anything (including truth, decency, honor, and human life; not that I'm under any illusions regarding American purity) apart from his legacy and maintaining a narrative of Russian greatness.

But yes. Ruthlessly effective in bringing his machinations to fruition because he adheres to no rule or constraint.

LRHF said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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Louis_Botha said:

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Gotta admire Putin he does not mess around.

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You do not have to admire Putin.

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Disagree! Don't like his positions but he's a hell of a leader for his people/ causes. Can you imagine if we had a strong leader, none of this BS would be happening

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Yeah, Putin has only presided over what, 9-10 countries that used to be in the USSR joining NATO (and I'm not counting the 1999 additions when Putin first took power).

So far he's batting .000, and somehow managed to let Ukraine ditch its pro-Moscow government and swing to the West creating the current crisis. It's hard to imagine how he could have done worse in protecting Russia's borders as such a "strong" leader. Every country that's wanted to bail on him in Europe and join the other side has successfully done so to date. [/gazes longingly at Putin]

Even in some of the countries directly bordering Russia (e.g. Ukraine, Georgia), all he's been able to do is chomp off tiny bits of what used to be full country bastions. You don't lose Ukraine while retaining Crimea and call it a victory.

NOW: Speaking in Brussels, NATO's @jensstoltenberg calls the Russian threat vs Ukraine the "most serious security crisis in decades."

"There are signs from Moscow diplomacy should continue. But so far we see no signs of de-escalation on the ground, not troops or equipment."

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 16, 2022

"Russia maintains a massive invasion force ready to attack," @jensstoltenberg says. Russia's military buildup around Ukraine is "the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the Cold War."

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 16, 2022

.@jensstoltenberg says Russia's military moves show it is willing to contest the fundamental principles of Europe's security, including by using force.

"This is the new normal in Europe."

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 16, 2022

I am interested to see how the Javelins do against Russian tanks that have installed the metal cages on top of the turret to defeat Javelin attacks (since they come from above).

YouBet said:

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Maybe semantics; maybe not.

I do not admire Putin at all.

However, I can respect his strategies and tactics if I remove my personal beliefs from the situation. He's potentially executed a master class in politics against his foes here. Ultimate outcome will determine final opinion.

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Putin's strategy is to undermine western powers starting with the EU and USA.

Putin's tactics are intimidation, extortion, and violence.

That's what you respect? Like I get the psychology of why some people yearn for the strongman, but there's pretty much no moral system by which you can ascribe anything "good" to Vladimir Putin.

Putin has managed to stay in power by any means necessary for quite some time, so yeah, for that he has some chops. He has had some small victories, but, I'd put those in the category of Reagan's invasion of Grenada or any win over Prairie View A&M or Sam Houston State.

I will be as well. Most of their active defenses were built around these types of systems and TOW from what I understand. That's why they got so screwed up by the RPGs in Chechnya way back when I followed that adventure. Also whoever designed an APC to have a fuel tank in the rear door is a real peach.

Putin going all in on his "blame the west for staged genocide and invade so as to sell the West Bad, Russia and China Good" narrative within Russia and China as justification for conflict with the west. Can see it coming from miles away.

#Russia's Investigative Committee claims mass graves of hundreds of civilians killed by #Ukrainian shelling found. Could be an attempt to "substantiate" #Putin's genocide accusations. Could be used as a sort of false flag.

— Tzvi Joffre (@TzviJoffre) February 16, 2022

These aggressive remarks by a spokesperson from China's MOFA during today's briefing are quite telling---an indication that #China is further backing up #Russia's rhetoric over #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/O8oSwtAtQQ

— VOA Nike Ching 张蓉湘 (@rongxiang) February 16, 2022

Seeing quite a bit about multiple Blackhawks having flown to the border of Romania and Ukraine having picked up uniformed soldiers. They were picked up at or near the border of Ukraine, but it's not clear where or what these soldiers were doing. Some pictures and videos on Twitter.

Embassy security personnel?

EU putting their money where their mouth is.

the European Parliament has now officially approved (598 for, 55 against, 41 abstentions) the 1.2 billion euro macro-financial assistance package for #Ukraine. the hope is that the first disbursement can happen in early March.

— Rikard Jozwiak (@RikardJozwiak) February 16, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Embassy security personnel?

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I mean maybe, but the staff was reportedly in Lviv. That's closer to Poland than to Romania I believe. The helicopter that landed at the Poland-Ukraine border was supposedly for a non-injury medical condition related to embassy staff.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Embassy security personnel?

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I mean maybe, but the staff was reportedly in Lviv. That's closer to Poland than to Romania I believe. The helicopter that landed at the Poland-Ukraine border was supposedly for a non-injury medical condition related to embassy staff.

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Sounds dubious but impossible to know.

Bubblez said:

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I just hope the Ukrainians can put up a better fight than the Afghans

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WHICH Afghans?!?

the Taliban outlasted the US Army and Biden forced the US military to retreat in disgrace after 20 years.

that's a pretty good fight in anyone's book.

Rossticus said:

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Putin going all in on his "blame the west for staged genocide and invade so as to sell the West Bad, Russia and China Good" narrative within Russia and China as justification for conflict with the west. Can see it coming from miles away.

#Russia's Investigative Committee claims mass graves of hundreds of civilians killed by #Ukrainian shelling found. Could be an attempt to "substantiate" #Putin's genocide accusations. Could be used as a sort of false flag.

— Tzvi Joffre (@TzviJoffre) February 16, 2022

These aggressive remarks by a spokesperson from China's MOFA during today's briefing are quite telling---an indication that #China is further backing up #Russia's rhetoric over #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/O8oSwtAtQQ

— VOA Nike Ching 张蓉湘 (@rongxiang) February 16, 2022

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well from 1941-1945 the Russians and Chinese were allies.

time to bring the band back together!

Rossticus said:

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He's still setting up pretext to justify additional troop movements into Donbas (plan B. Plan a was Ukrainian and NATO capitulation).

He's primarily setting up a narrative to sell within his sphere of control and to his allies who have tightly controlled/restricted information flow (China) in order to further demonize Europe and the US in the East thereby setting up next steps.

You can invade without "attacking" first. He's setting up Ukraine to have to either shoot first or allow Putin to send a flood of troops into Donbas undeterred as a "humanitarian force" that will subsequently take full control of the region.

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what's the deal with the Russian Duma passing that resolution for annexation of Donbass and Luhansk?!?

not a word in the mainstream USA media about that yesterday- too busy crowing about how Putin "was withdrawing troops because of Biden scaring them"

Rossticus said:

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Louis_Botha said:

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He's right you know.

Putin says Ukraine joining NATO would make nuclear war more likely. - YouTube

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Only because Vlad is crazy and he'd threaten offensive nuclear action. NATO is a defensive military alliance by its own definition and charter. Has never and will never pose an offensive military threat to Russia.

Vlad is full of carp. If he's not lying he's not talking. Lyin' Vlad. This is all based in his own political aspirations and cementing both his legacy and the rebirth of the territorial USSR (see Vlad's legacy).

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that's not the way Putin, the Russians and an unbiased observer could view history

NATO pledged at the end of the Cold War not to move east into threatening Russia.

look at the last 20 years with numerous eastern bloc countries moving into NATO orbit.

now imagine you are a russian nationalist- that sure looks "offensive" rather than "defensive"

If any media outlet crowed then it was dumb because even the Biden admin said they saw no evidence of troop withdrawals and considered the situation to still be escalatory. They've been pretty consistent in saying that nothing has changed from where they stand.