He's right you know.

Putin says Ukraine joining NATO would make nuclear war more likely. - YouTube

wildmen09 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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This is just not true. I witnessed a massive change in Europe, first hand, in 2015. Massive amounts of resources into Ukraine for training and even a training center. Georgians to JMRC in Germany for training rotations with the US and NATO. Deployments of rotational units to Georgia. Does this make headlines? No. Does Russia know? Damn straight.

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Russia is still stronger and would roll them you know it.

Louis_Botha said:

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wildmen09 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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This is just not true. I witnessed a massive change in Europe, first hand, in 2015. Massive amounts of resources into Ukraine for training and even a training center. Georgians to JMRC in Germany for training rotations with the US and NATO. Deployments of rotational units to Georgia. Does this make headlines? No. Does Russia know? Damn straight.

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Russia is still stronger and would roll them you know it.

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At what point did I say that Ukraine had a superior military force?

Don't ever count out a military fighting for their own land. I do think they will surprise people. Unfortunately, I believe the cyber aspect will be too much to handle.

wildmen09 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

---

Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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This is just not true. I witnessed a massive change in Europe, first hand, in 2015. Massive amounts of resources into Ukraine for training and even a training center. Georgians to JMRC in Germany for training rotations with the US and NATO. Deployments of rotational units to Georgia. Does this make headlines? No. Does Russia know? Damn straight.

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Not sure if you're responding to him or me. I should have said "purely diplomatic" like France and Germany had been pushing. I'm aware of all the efforts to modernize the Ukrainian military but without more substantial support from NATO (at least more than Central Europe has let on as being willing to provide), Ukraine can't rebuff a serious effort by Russia to secure and annex even the eastern portion of Ukraine. For all practical purposes Russia already occupies eastern Ukraine.

Putin is on record saying that their goal is to ultimately take Ukraine back, dissolve NATO protection for the Baltic states, and reclaim them as Russian. He's going to keep plugging away at that goal bit by bit unless Europe, NATO, and the US make it too painful a proposition.

I'm not sure it's ultimately possible to maintain an independent Ukraine long term once an invasion begins without some greater degree of military participation apart from simply providing supplies. You have to be able to bridge the gap until Russia has time to feel the impact of sanctions. Though, without Ukraine being part of NATO I'm unsure how much leash everyone has to run with.

I just hope the Ukrainians can put up a better fight than the Afghans

wildmen09 said:

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Louis_Botha said:

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wildmen09 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

---

Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

---

This is just not true. I witnessed a massive change in Europe, first hand, in 2015. Massive amounts of resources into Ukraine for training and even a training center. Georgians to JMRC in Germany for training rotations with the US and NATO. Deployments of rotational units to Georgia. Does this make headlines? No. Does Russia know? Damn straight.

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Russia is still stronger and would roll them you know it.

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At what point did I say that Ukraine had a superior military force?

Don't ever count out a military fighting for their own land. I do think they will surprise people. Unfortunately, I believe the cyber aspect will be too much to handle.

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I think both the US and NATO countries are likely assisting on the Cyber front. Easy to do that without giving away clear evidence of who it is and neither us nor NATO countries have precluded that type of assistance via any statements.

Louis_Botha said:

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He's right you know.

Putin says Ukraine joining NATO would make nuclear war more likely. - YouTube

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Only because Vlad is crazy and he'd threaten offensive nuclear action. NATO is a defensive military alliance by its own definition and charter. Has never and will never pose an offensive military threat to Russia.

Vlad is full of carp. If he's not lying he's not talking. Lyin' Vlad. This is all based in his own political aspirations and cementing both his legacy and the rebirth of the territorial USSR (see Vlad's legacy).

Rossticus said:

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wildmen09 said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

---

Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

---

This is just not true. I witnessed a massive change in Europe, first hand, in 2015. Massive amounts of resources into Ukraine for training and even a training center. Georgians to JMRC in Germany for training rotations with the US and NATO. Deployments of rotational units to Georgia. Does this make headlines? No. Does Russia know? Damn straight.

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Not sure if you're responding to him or me. I should have said "purely diplomatic" like France and Germany had been pushing. I'm aware of all the efforts to modernize the Ukrainian military but without more substantial support from NATO (at least more than Central Europe has let on as being willing to provide), Ukraine can't rebuff a serious effort by Russia to secure and annex even the eastern portion of Ukraine. For all practical purposes Russia already occupies eastern Ukraine.

Putin is on record saying that their goal is to ultimately take Ukraine back, dissolve NATO protection for the Baltic states, and reclaim them as Russian. He's going to keep plugging away at that goal bit by bit unless Europe, NATO, and the US make it too painful a proposition.

I'm not sure it's ultimately possible to maintain an independent Ukraine long term once an invasion begins without some greater degree of military participation apart from simply providing supplies. You have to be able to bridge the gap until Russia has time to feel the impact of sanctions. Though, without Ukraine being part of NATO I'm unsure how much leash everyone has to run with.

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Responding to Valtrex. Your points are 100% correct. My experience yields little insights to the cyber aspect but your thoughts of us providing help seem completely plausible.

Rossticus said:

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Louis_Botha said:

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He's right you know.

Putin says Ukraine joining NATO would make nuclear war more likely. - YouTube

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Only because Vlad is crazy and he'd threaten offensive nuclear action. NATO is a defensive military alliance by its own definition and charter. Has never and will never pose an offensive military threat to Russia.

Vlad is full of carp. If he's not lying he's not talking. Lyin' Vlad. This is all based in his own political aspirations and cementing both his legacy and the rebirth of the territorial USSR (see Vlad's legacy).

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I think this is something the public generally forgets and writes off. You have to realize this isnt the run of the mill guy. You are literally dealing with the KGB with Vlad.

.

ChIef of NATO issued a statement that Russia is adding troops and field hospitals near the border despite claiming they were sending troops home yesterday…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/nato-says-russia-is-increasing-troop-count-at-ukrainian-border.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

BTHOtrolls said:

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ChIef of NATO issued a statement that Russia is adding troops and field hospitals near the border despite claiming they were sending troops home yesterday…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/nato-says-russia-is-increasing-troop-count-at-ukrainian-border.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

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And zerohedge is Russia propaganda

Broke out a new sock today.

Just wait until the ballistic missile launches that are part of the "military drill" start happening... things are gonna spiral quickly, I think.

https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1493884806022713344?t=cUVUYFhzir6B2u9lBdR_tQ&s=19

Cotulla - Ag said:

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https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1493884806022713344?t=cUVUYFhzir6B2u9lBdR_tQ&s=19

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ETA: Well it is Wednesday. Today is the day, right? So says the US.

16 February 2022. Meanwhile in Ukraine@mfa_russia pic.twitter.com/59xuQjqSjQ

— Russia in RSA 🇷🇺 (@EmbassyofRussia) February 16, 2022

BTHOB said:

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Just wait until the ballistic missile launches that are part of the "military drill" start happening... things are gonna spiral quickly, I think.

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Still waiting to randomly open up TA to see a war has started.

NATO's @jensstoltenberg: says Russia retains capability for full-fledged invasion of Ukraine without warning. "What we see is that they (Russia) have increased the number of troops and more troops are on their way. So far, no de-escalation."

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) February 16, 2022

They've stated that they're moving 3 forces. 2 of which are moving to their home bases which were essentially the same distance from the Ukraine as where they were stationed. The third unit hasn't actually moved yet. The Kyiv region is going to see about a half inch of rain over the next week. We'll see. The longer this goes on the less likely that Putin goes, but I just don't see what the West will give them to make things move.

will25u said:

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Cotulla - Ag said:

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https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1493884806022713344?t=cUVUYFhzir6B2u9lBdR_tQ&s=19

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ETA: Well it is Wednesday. Today is the day, right? So says the US.

16 February 2022. Meanwhile in Ukraine@mfa_russia pic.twitter.com/59xuQjqSjQ

— Russia in RSA 🇷🇺 (@EmbassyofRussia) February 16, 2022

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Now this is funny. I assume they are not invading based solely on this tweet.

Although, that's kind of what I would want people thinking if I was going to invade.

aezmvp said:

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They've stated that they're moving 3 forces. 2 of which are moving to their home bases which were essentially the same distance from the Ukraine as where they were stationed. The third unit hasn't actually moved yet. The Kyiv region is going to see about a half inch of rain over the next week. We'll see. The longer this goes on the less likely that Putin goes, but I just don't see what the West will give them to make things move.

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All Russia's asks are non starters which essentially result in Ukraine ceding their sovereignty. Ukraine wants to be a western democracy and not a Russian puppet so I don't see them capitulating. They've taken a "come and take it" approach since 2014 and have been pretty resolute in the face of consistent intimidation since then. I don't see a change in course coming from their side. What Russia does will be interesting.

We have friends in Donetsk, Ukraine. Dad finally heard from them yesterday for first time in months. It was his birthday yesterday. They seem resolute against all of this and told him they would win this. Not much else said because they are probably being monitored. They are/were big wigs in local politics at one point.

Right on cue, mass graves to be investigated by Russia.

Russia’s Investigative Committee is opening an investigation into “mass graves of civilians” found in Donbas. Putin spoke yesterday of “genocide” in Donbas (which there is no public proof of), and indirectly compared it to NATO’s justification for going to war in Kosovo… https://t.co/Jv4jMbaLoQ

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) February 16, 2022

https://instagr.am/p/CaCr4eOrIrr

Low key have to respect Purim's willingness to stick to a plan. Dude gives no ****s if it was broadcast 2 weeks ago this was going to be their MO.

He's following Trudeau's fake mass grave genocide strategy in Canada.

Clever.

wildmen09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Louis_Botha said:

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He's right you know.

Putin says Ukraine joining NATO would make nuclear war more likely. - YouTube

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Only because Vlad is crazy and he'd threaten offensive nuclear action. NATO is a defensive military alliance by its own definition and charter. Has never and will never pose an offensive military threat to Russia.

Vlad is full of carp. If he's not lying he's not talking. Lyin' Vlad. This is all based in his own political aspirations and cementing both his legacy and the rebirth of the territorial USSR (see Vlad's legacy).

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I think this is something the public generally forgets and writes off. You have to realize this isnt the run of the mill guy. You are literally dealing with the KGB with Vlad.

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I agree that NATO is a defensive organization, but this is the sort of thing that's rustling Putin's jimmies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/world/europe/poland-missile-base-russia-ukraine.html

Quote:

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On the Edge of a Polish Forest, Where Some of Putin's Darkest Fears Lurk

A U.S. missile facility in Poland is at the heart of an issue animating the Kremlin's calculations over whether to go to war against Ukraine.
. . .
Tomasz Czescik, a Polish archaeologist and television journalist, walks his dog each morning through a forest near his home here on NATO's eastern flank, wandering along the edge of a green chain-link fence topped with razor wire.

He enjoys the fresh air and morning quiet until loudspeakers on the other side of the fence, strung with "Keep Out" signs in Polish, English, German and Russian, start blasting "The Star -Spangled Banner" at high volume.
. . .
The fence is the outer perimeter, guarded by Polish soldiers, of a highly sensitive U.S. military installation, expected to be operational this year, which Washington insists will help defend Europe and the United States from ballistic missiles fired by rogue states like Iran.

But for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the military base in Poland, and another in Romania, are evidence of what he sees as the threat posed by NATO's eastward expansion and part of his justification for his military encirclement of Ukraine. The Pentagon describes the two sites as defensive and unrelated to Russia, but the Kremlin believes they could be used to shoot down Russian rockets or to fire offensive cruise missiles at Moscow.

As he threatens Ukraine, Mr. Putin has demanded that NATO reduce its military footprint in Eastern and Central Europe which Washington and European leaders have flatly refused to do. Mr. Putin has been fuming about American missiles near Russia's border since the Romanian site went into operation in 2016, but the Polish facility, located near the village of Redzikowo, is only about 100 miles from Russian territory and barely 800 miles from Moscow itself.
. . .
"Are we deploying missiles near the U.S. border? No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep," Mr. Putin said in December at his annual news conference.

The Polish base, the heart of which is a system known as Aegis Ashore, contains sophisticated radars capable of tracking hostile missiles and guiding interceptor rockets to knock them out of the sky. It is also equipped with missile launchers known as MK 41s, which the Russians worry can be easily repurposed to fire offensive missiles like the Tomahawk.
. . .
Ryszard Kwiatkowski, a civil engineer who works in construction, said a customer who reserved an apartment in a new block his company is building recently called to cancel her planned purchase because of worries that Russia could strike the missile defense facility at Redzikowo and send property values through the floor.

Nobody really thinks that is likely it would put Russia into direct conflict with NATO, of which Poland has been a member since 1999. But assumptions of a unified and peaceful Europe that took hold with the end of the Cold War are crumbling as Russian troops mass on the border with Ukraine and the United States sends thousands of additional soldiers to Poland.

Mr. Kwiatkowski, who took part in protests against the American facility at Redzikowo when it was announced in 2016, said Russia had stoked unease by exaggerating the threat posed by NATO. But, he added, both sides have created "a self-propelling machine of fear" fueled by nerve-jangling uncertainty over what the other is up to.
. . .
Thomas Graham, who served as senior director for Russia on President George W. Bush's National Security Council, said Moscow had never believed Washington's assurances that its missile defense system was aimed at Iran, not Russia. The issue, he added, had become a powerful symbol for the Kremlin of a post-Cold War order that it views as dangerously one-sided and which it is now trying to revise through military threats.

"The current crisis is really much broader than Ukraine," Mr. Graham said, "Ukraine is a leverage point but it is more about Poland, Romania and the Baltics. The Russians think it is time to revise the post-Cold War settlement in Europe in their favor."

In a meeting with Mr. Putin on Monday, Russia's foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov emphasized that Russia wanted to see "radical changes in the sphere of European security," far-reaching changes that go beyond just Ukraine to include a pullback of NATO troops now in Eastern Europe, limits on the deployment of offensive weaponry and restrictions on intermediate range missiles.

---

Quote:

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. . .
During the Cold War, Russia and the United States both worked on developing antimissile defenses, but agreed in 1972 to abandon their rocket shield programs so as to preserve mutual vulnerability and, they hoped, peace.
. . .
It worked for nearly 30 years. But, at the end of Mr. Putin's first year as president in December 2001, President George W. Bush infuriated the new Russian leader by pulling out of the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty and directing the Pentagon to build a system to ward off the possible threat of missiles from Iran.
. . .
"We tried for a long time to persuade our partners not to do this," Mr. Putin said this month in the Kremlin. "Nevertheless, the U.S. did what it did withdrew from the treaty. Now antiballistic missile launchers are deployed in Romania and are being set up in Poland."

Should Ukraine draw closer to NATO, Mr. Putin thundered, "it will be filled with weapons. Modern offensive weapons will be deployed on its territory just like in Poland and Romania."

The Aegis Ashore site in Romania has been operating for five years without incident, but Russia views the Polish missile defense facility, previously stalled by construction and other problems, as a more serious menace.
. . .
Washington has also struggled to convince Mr. Putin that its two missile defense sites in Eastern Europe do not also have an offensive capability that could easily be turned against Russian targets.

Responding to Russian complaints, NATO declared last month that interceptor missiles deployed at Aegis Ashore sites "cannot undermine Russian strategic deterrence capabilities" and "cannot be used for offensive purposes." It added that the interceptors contained no explosives and could not hit ground targets, only airborne objects.

"In addition, the site lacks the software, the hardware and infrastructure needed to launch offensive missiles," NATO said.

Some independent experts, however, believe that while requiring a rejiggering of software and other changes, the MK 41 launchers installed in Poland and Romania can fire not only defensive interceptors but also offensive missiles. Matt Korda, an analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, said that "without visual inspections, there is no way to determine whether or not this Tomahawk-specific hardware and software have been installed at the Aegis Ashore sites in Europe."
. . .
So far only American military personnel have been allowed anywhere near the launchers or their control units. The U.S. Navy, which operates the Aegis Ashore site in Poland, did not respond to a request by The New York Times for a visit.
. . .

---

As an aside I was curious if the last word in bold is in the safe zone as far as offensive language. Amusingly, by some accounts it's not, and the NYT possibly just committed a faux pas.

Putin's concerns are political. Not military. His concern for NATO is that it prevents him from carrying out his objectives with near impunity. Not that they'll launch an offensive strike. Impediment to ambition rustles Putin's Jimmies.

I forgot about the Polish missile defense trigger. Actually, thought that had been shelved.

so can someone provide a tl;dr summary on whether this is going to war or not?

tl;dr summary of going to war or not?

50:50

BTHOB said:

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tl;dr summary of going to war or not?

50:50

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lol thats exactly what I'm looking for!

Every day that goes by is good for avoiding conflict. However Russia is still in position and they're still pushing some pretty transparent justifications for invading.

Iirc Putin stated that both Clinton and Bush tried to convince him of withdrawing from the treaty as well due to Iran's nuclear development. Ukraine gave up their Soviet stockpile in 1994 in exchange for security assurances for territorial integrity under the Budapest memorandum of which Russia's annexation of Crimea is a violation of that.