JobSecurity said:

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Social media will be interesting if this happens. First hot war that will get live streamed? Crimea wasn't quite the same intensity and social media is only more pervasive now

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Also much lower population density.

Is it time to surf back in this thread before some edits start happening by those that said "Russia won't invade"?

Rossticus said:

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Latest BBC. Insightful and quick read. Putin still trying to claim genocide of ethnic Russians by Ukrainians in the East as precedent for invasion should he pull the trigger but ceasing these alleged atrocities oddly not part of his demands for deescalation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60392259

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That's a funny point.
Gracias for the link.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Amy reliable twitter follows out there for this situation?

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Take a look back through this thread and look for some of the direct sources. Wading through the **** on Twitter or Reddit to find sources is awful. Btw, you will see people post stuff that Igor Gorkin has posted. Treat that with a high degree of skepticism imo. He was heavily involved the 2014 operations. Here's a live map link:

https://liveuamap.com/

Quote:

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Odds on Twitter going down when Russia actually begins the invasion?

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If Russia does invade, in country? Very, very high. Globally? Unlikely.

Statement from the US Senate

UPDATE: Websites of multiple Ukrainian Ministries appear to be down or disrupted.

— Conflict News (@Conflicts) February 15, 2022

Amerykanie właśnie ewakuują kogoś z granicy PL-UA śmigłowcem. Podjechała terenówka, wysiadło parę osób, szlaban się podniósł. Przeszli, wsiedli, polecieli do Rzeszowa. https://t.co/jxFaHYoOSd pic.twitter.com/RmWU8Trk5m

— Katanga Ministry of Sports and Culture (@emulatorsiersci) February 15, 2022

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Amy reliable twitter follows out there for this situation?

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Take a look back through this thread and look for some of the direct sources. Wading through the **** on Twitter or Reddit to find sources is awful. Btw, you will see people post stuff that Igor Gorkin has posted. Treat that with a high degree of skepticism imo. He was heavily involved the 2014 operations. Here's a live map link:

https://liveuamap.com/

Quote:

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Odds on Twitter going down when Russia actually begins the invasion?

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If Russia does invade, in country? Very, very high. Globally? Unlikely.

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Biden's comments leave a lot of flexibility for US military action. Says we won't send troops to Ukraine but also essentially lays on the table that if NATO countries were to become involved we'd fill the vacuum in NATO territory and ensure that Russia was hemmed in. Doesn't preclude other types of aggressive military support. Just no troops in Ukraine. Something tells me we may not be fully watching from the sidelines. Interesting.

Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Amy reliable twitter follows out there for this situation?

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Take a look back through this thread and look for some of the direct sources. Wading through the **** on Twitter or Reddit to find sources is awful. Btw, you will see people post stuff that Igor Gorkin has posted. Treat that with a high degree of skepticism imo. He was heavily involved the 2014 operations. Here's a live map link:

https://liveuamap.com/

Quote:

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Odds on Twitter going down when Russia actually begins the invasion?

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If Russia does invade, in country? Very, very high. Globally? Unlikely.

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Biden's comments leave a lot of flexibility for US military action. Says we won't send troops to Ukraine but also essentially lays on the table that if NATO countries were to become involved we'd fill the vacuum in NATO territory and ensure that Russia was hemmed in. Doesn't preclude other types of aggressive military support. Just no troops in Ukraine. Something tells me we may not be fully watching from the sidelines. Interesting.

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That sounds kinda like the makings of WW3.

What is your definition of involved in this hypothetical? In the broadest sense, as I understand it, if NATO becomes involved and is attacked by Russia then Article 5 of the NATO agreement could be triggered. I don't think Europe is going realistically want to willingly put itself in a position where basically total war is on the table.

BREAKING: Website of Security Service of Ukraine, the main government security agency, is down. 👀 pic.twitter.com/ActrfVGMv0

— Awake Aggie🍿 (@AwakeAggie) February 15, 2022

If we get involved in a military way without Poland or Romania getting invaded or one our birds getting shot down in Polish airspace/etc it's a huge policy mistake IMO.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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What is your definition of involved in this hypothetical? In the broadest sense, as I understand it, if NATO becomes involved and is attacked by Russia then Article 5 of the NATO agreement could be triggered. I don't think Europe is going realistically want to willingly put itself in a position where basically total war is on the table.

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I don't think they know what is going to happen and they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. They don't want war but there is no legitimate threat to Russia yet it looks like they're still pushing for the bloody land grab.

Hell, we don't even know what degree of support is actually on the table from each respective NATO nation if this all goes live and how Russia will choose to respond to that support.

You're absolutely right. Based on what NATO and Biden have said, this sets up to go sideways all to hell unless Russia maintains exceptional decorum and everyone colors inside the lines.

CharlieBrown17 said:

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If we get involved in a military way without Poland or Romania getting invaded or one our birds getting shot down in Polish airspace/etc it's a huge policy mistake IMO.

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We know how Russia likes to respect airspace.

A war is about to break out and Biden took EXACTLY 0 questions after his press conference.

will25u said:

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A war is about to break out and Biden took EXACTLY 0 questions after his press conference.

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For once that is probably a good thing. **** anytime he talks on this I worry he will break up NATO on accident.

From the BBC:

"The US president also warned the American economy could suffer from disruption to energy supply and price hikes in the likely event that sanctions were levied on Russia in response to any invasion of Ukraine."

"The American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost," the US president said. "I will not pretend this will be painless."

"He said the administration was working on contingency plans with energy producers and shippers to avert potential supply issues. Mr Biden warned the proposed Russian Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Europe "will not happen" if a Ukraine invasion goes ahead."

Quick reminder: just under 40min until it's 3am in Ukraine.

This is going to be (assuming it happens) a fascinating look at war in the modern era.

It's going to be waged with computers as much (if not more) than by troops on the ground. Hacking, social media, news reports, etc.

Yes, *that* Pripyat River.

Looks like the Russians have constructed a temporary bridge. https://t.co/zbAcx8KOHz

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 16, 2022

pic.twitter.com/SsYkj2BmZB

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 16, 2022

Posting this as a must listen. It's about Taiwan but we're mirroring the same strategy in Ukraine as if we're using it as a test case because of the similarities inherent in both scenarios.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/taiwan-china-and-the-poison-frog-strategy/id1079958510?i=1000542217163

https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-poison-frog-strategy

Wrec86 Ag said:

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This is going to be (assuming it happens) a fascinating look at war in the modern era.

It's going to be waged with computers as much (if not more) than by troops on the ground. Hacking, social media, news reports, etc.

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I am getting concerned that there has been a head fake here.

Rossticus said:

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From the BBC:

"The US president also warned the American economy could suffer from disruption to energy supply and price hikes in the likely event that sanctions were levied on Russia in response to any invasion of Ukraine."

"The American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost," the US president said. "I will not pretend this will be painless."

"He said the administration was working on contingency plans with energy producers and shippers to avert potential supply issues. Mr Biden warned the proposed Russian Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Europe "will not happen" if a Ukraine invasion goes ahead."

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Outstanding way to cover for your anti O&G consequences.

Wrec86 Ag said:

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This is going to be (assuming it happens) a fascinating look at war in the modern era.

It's going to be waged with computers as much (if not more) than by troops on the ground. Hacking, social media, news reports, etc.

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Crimean War was a preview of everything from then to 1917 if you paid attention.

Yep. Going to force domestic production and independence. He gains the political benefit with the conflict as cover from the crazy Libs.

Rossticus said:

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Yep. Going to force domestic production and independence. He gains the political benefit with the conflict as cover from the crazy Libs.

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Joementia is 0-fer in his tenure. Not so sure he can even trip up the stairs into the right decision.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Rossticus said:

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Yep. Going to force domestic production and independence. He gains the political benefit with the conflict as cover from the crazy Libs.

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Joementia is 0-fer in his tenure. Not so sure he can even trip up the stairs into the right decision.

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But, yeah, if it happens he totally lucked into it. No argument there.

Ukrainian Podcast in English discussing Ukrainian perspective on what we're seeing. Last few episodes a very good listen.

Ukraine World

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/explaining-ukraine/id1333090403

Cliffs?

Invasion a hoax or not?

aggiehawg said:

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Cliffs?

Invasion a hoax or not?

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Never a hoax. Fishing expedition/negotiation tactic with the willingness to go all in if Ukraine and NATO don't blink. You always throw a feint with conviction and willingness to strike if your opposition doesn't react to the attack the way you want them to.

Putin ultimately wants the unilateral dissolution of NATO security guarantees to Eastern Europe, repatriation of Baltic states, and symbolic/territorial rise of USSR from the ashes. He's a true believer. Even if he backtracks at the very last minute it's only to regroup and account for what is probably a more sizable response than he was anticipating give his Crimean and Georgian experience.

Just my opinion.

Rossticus said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Cliffs?

Invasion a hoax or not?

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Never a hoax. Fishing expedition/negotiation tactic with the willingness to go all in if Ukraine and NATO don't blink. You always throw a feint with conviction and willingness to strike if your opposition doesn't react to the attack the way you want them to.

Putin ultimately wants the unilateral dissolution of NATO security guarantees to Eastern Europe, repatriation of Baltic states, and symbolic/territorial rise of USSR from the ashes. He's a true believer. Even if he backtracks at the very last minute it's only to regroup and account for what is probably a more sizable response than he was anticipating give his Crimean and Georgian experience.

Just my opinion.

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Concur.

His ability to create a maskirovka was blown up the last few weeks.

Reincorporating Ukraine into a ‘greater Russia’ would underpin his now constitutionally-mandated opportunity to reign until 2036, as well as being his biggest legacy, argues @RobinNiblett. https://t.co/WGEA9Y2CNU

— Chatham House (@ChathamHouse) February 14, 2022

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/russias-end-games-and-putins-dilemmas

So, putin gonna back away slowly?

K2-HMFIC said:

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Rossticus said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Cliffs?

Invasion a hoax or not?

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Never a hoax. Fishing expedition/negotiation tactic with the willingness to go all in if Ukraine and NATO don't blink. You always throw a feint with conviction and willingness to strike if your opposition doesn't react to the attack the way you want them to.

Putin ultimately wants the unilateral dissolution of NATO security guarantees to Eastern Europe, repatriation of Baltic states, and symbolic/territorial rise of USSR from the ashes. He's a true believer. Even if he backtracks at the very last minute it's only to regroup and account for what is probably a more sizable response than he was anticipating give his Crimean and Georgian experience.

Just my opinion.

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Concur.

His ability to create a maskirovka was blown up the last few weeks.

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The question is did he need it domestically? Outside long term partners like China, Iran, Pakistan, South America, Africa don't give a thought to it. Maybe Germany? Maybe? No one else would have bought it. They could still launch a first strike to create a situation where a bomb goes off or whatever. Hell bomb a subway in Moscow or St. Petersburg or Kursk. Or set a few bombs off by marshalling points and call it a spoiler attack and then retaliate. The cover story matters very little internationally to be honest.

Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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This is just not true. I witnessed a massive change in Europe, first hand, in 2015. Massive amounts of resources into Ukraine for training and even a training center. Georgians to JMRC in Germany for training rotations with the US and NATO. Deployments of rotational units to Georgia. Does this make headlines? No. Does Russia know? Damn straight.