erudite said:

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aezmvp said:

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BTHOB said:

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Russia "said" they were in the process of pulling troops back, but actual surveillance shows no actual withdrawal. In fact, more assets moving into place and field hospitals being constructed near border. Russia is playing the misinformation game - which would be the MO for imminent invasion.

This situation has NOT de-escalated, despite the propaganda being distributed by Russia.

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I'm watching for social media posts on fuel bowsers moving up or trains moving out. Until then nothing has changed. You don't fly air assets 9000 km and pull active duty soldiers from every military district in the country and activate and pull the national guard from Chechnya without getting SOMETHING in return. So far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything. Maybe a guarantee that Ukraine won't join NATO behind the scenes? But what else is he getting to back off?

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If he can ruin Ukraine's economy by making air/shipping uninsurable that also works.

Russia cannot, and will not tolerate Ukraine in the EU/NATO. It has three avenues to this approach.
1) The best method is to have the rulers be friendly to Moscow (see Belarus, pre EuroMaidan Ukraine)
2) The second best method is to make Ukraine completely unappealing to the EU/NATO (See: Current day)
3) The last method is to invade and make it politically impossible to join NATO/EU due to territory dispute (See: 2014 Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea).

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Technically, you already have 2 and 3 in the current day. The ongoing conflicts in the east of Ukraine and Crimea make it so that the country cannot currently be accepted into NATO. I'm pretty sure Putin is aware of this so that near term goal is already achieved.

The issue for Russia is if NATO and Ukraine recognize them Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea as independent regions and not part of Ukraine any longer. This would alleviate some issues for Ukraine's attempt to enter NATO at the expense of dividing the Ukrainian populace and legitimizing Russia. I think this would be a wildly unpopular move in country.

I also don't think that the NATO members have any interest in actually accepting Ukraine into NATO. That's just going to piss off Putin even if he does get more puppet states.

And therein lies the issue, as Ukraine wants a Euro/western style political system and close ties, if not membership in the EU. There is no middle ground in the equation as this is unacceptable to Russia. They want control of Ukraine in one form or another.

So, do we support Ukraine and attempt to thwart Russia or look the other way while Russia grinds a sovereign nation under their heel?

Imagine if Russia was trying to move Mexico into the Warsaw pact..Leave Putin and Ukraine to duke it out. WGAS

It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

Valtrex11 said:

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Imagine if Russia was trying to move Mexico into the Warsaw pact..Leave Putin and Ukraine to duke it out. WGAS

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Your comparison is moronic. A more apt comparison is if the US had annexed Baja and the Yucatn by force first with stated goals that in no uncertain terms outlined the US's position that Mexico should be a part of the US. Now, take it from there genius.

I don't necessarily disagree, I just don't know that, from Putin's perspective, he has those assurances. Could he split off Donbass and Luhansk regions (see Duma vote today)? Yes. Does it make the situation in Ukraine more or less likely to push for Western integration even if they can't get NATO membership? I'd say more likely. That's not a situation he wants.

Without this being a massive waste of resources and/or a massive loss of face I think regime change is the goal here. Maybe some other concessions will salsify him if he evaluates it and says the cost is too much.

I definitely think based on the helicopter deployments, the guard deployments and so forth that there will be a go/no go called this week. I still expect tomorrow or Thursday. You've already seen a huge flight of business leaders from the country in private jets today and yesterday. The Russians just got their last full Combined Arms Army deployed yesterday. You need 24-48 hours to push those units in to place and refuel/supply.

There is so much force forward deployed from under their own power to jump off positions, the whole thing stinks. You could have gotten all this reaction with a quarter or half the cost on their part. Why surge those ships from Baltic to Black? If Putin backs down here it's 100% because he got cold feet. Nothing NATO has done shows me that they'll do anything about this other than sit behind their borders. So diplomatically I think he needs something big or he will go.

The only thing that might not have gone his way right now was the deployment of some German forces to Lithuania. That might show some changing German feelings towards the whole situation but I haven't read into that enough.

This level of force screams a functional invasion plan being executed and not a bluff. (Yes a bluff would look like that, but this seems like too many resources from Russia in one spot to not have a legitimate option on the table to go in.).

100%

Rossticus said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Imagine if Russia was trying to move Mexico into the Warsaw pact..Leave Putin and Ukraine to duke it out. WGAS

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Your comparison is moronic. A more apt comparison is if the US had annexed Baja and the Yucatn by force first with stated goals that in no uncertain terms outlined the US's position that Mexico should be a part of the US. Now, take it from there genius.

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Again I think material support and arms sales 100% justified. After whatever this is is over, doing joint training specifically in Poland or some other regional allies 100% okay. Getting Ukraine to join NATO or putting full formations into Ukraine, I'm against. All the logistical, political, and intelligence support you want. And I give a **** because the US is not an island. If we don't do certain things then we will face problems here from Central and South America worse than we already do. Portions of our economy will be locked out world wide due to resources being denied us from hostile nations when we withdraw into our own little cave. This isn't 1790 or 1840 or even 1910. Out economy is based on material resources coming from all over the world and while we could and should do more to increase production of those materials domestically and in nations friendly to us, sticking your head in the sand and saying none of that @(*$#& over there matters is incredibly short sighted and will cause us bigger problems later.

Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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Any NATO action by that time would have been retaliatory and not defensive. Situations completely different than this one. And those also weren't NATO countries. Georgia hoped for NATO intervention but knew it was a coin flip.

Putin will incur heavy losses on all fronts if he makes this move. Could very well backfire against his ultimate goals of reduced US and NATO presence in NATO countries along Russian borders for a long time to come. Russia would still get their ass kicked if they step out of line and encroach into NATO territory. Because Russia is still, ultimately, only capable of picking on the little kids.

Rossticus said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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Any NATO action by that time would have been retaliatory and not defensive. Situations completely different than this one. And those also weren't NATO countries. Georgia hoped for NATO intervention but knew it was a coin flip.

Putin will incur heavy losses on all fronts if he makes this move. Could very well backfire against his ultimate goals of reduced US and NATO presence in NATO countries along Russian borders for a long time to come. Russia would still get their ass kicked if they step out of line and encroach into NATO territory. Because Russia is still, ultimately, only capable of picking on the little kids.

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Current NATO military strength is not near enough to stop Russia if ever decided to advance would need huge troop allotment from the USA. They would move so fast through Suwalki gap by the time any significant NATO forced could be mobilized by then it would be on to peace talks. Russia would control the Baltics in 3 days max

Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Valtrex11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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It's impossible to walk the fence forever. Russia will keep taking bites till there's nothing left. NATO needs to decide where they stand because there is no diplomatic solution that doesn't eventually end with Europe turning their back on Ukraine and letting Russia take them bit by bit.

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Another dumb take. NATO didn't do **** when they invaded Georgia and Crimea. Putin can pretty much go as far as he wants..

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Any NATO action by that time would have been retaliatory and not defensive. Situations completely different than this one. And those also weren't NATO countries. Georgia hoped for NATO intervention but knew it was a coin flip.

Putin will incur heavy losses on all fronts if he makes this move. Could very well backfire against his ultimate goals of reduced US and NATO presence in NATO countries along Russian borders for a long time to come. Russia would still get their ass kicked if they step out of line and encroach into NATO territory. Because Russia is still, ultimately, only capable of picking on the little kids.

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Current NATO military strength is not near enough to stop Russia if ever decided to advance would need huge troop allotment from the USA. They would move so fast through Suwalki gap by the time any significant NATO forced could be mobilized by then it would be on to peace talks. Russia would control the Baltics in 3 days max

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Sounds like a no brainer. Wonder why they're still torn over the cost/benefit of entering eastern Ukraine?

Quote:

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The State Emergency Service of Ukraine is preparing for large-scale emergencies of various nature that can affect its civilian population. In accordance with the procedures at reference, the EADRCC has received on 15 February 2022, a request for international assistance by Ukraine.

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https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_191889.htm

Ukraine getting cyber attacked at their banks yet?

TTUArmy said:

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Ukraine getting cyber attacked at their banks yet?

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There was a DDoS attack earlier yes. This seems to have ended I believe.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Ukraine getting cyber attacked at their banks yet?

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There was a DDoS attack earlier yes. This seems to have ended I believe.

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2 banks, Ministry of Defense, military branches. Affected some payment systems but that was limited and I'm not 100% sure accurate. Was in initial reports and they have done so in the past in Baltic countries.

I'd imagine they've received some assistance from euro nations on the DL in order to mitigate potential cyber attacks/infiltration. That's an area where their capabilities are significantly lagging otherwise.

Latest BBC. Insightful and quick read. Putin still trying to claim genocide of ethnic Russians by Ukrainians in the East as precedent for invasion should he pull the trigger but ceasing these alleged atrocities oddly not part of his demands for deescalation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60392259

Biden up speaking now. He actually go there on time!

Do these govt leaders think Russia isn't considering the sanctions or that the sanctions scare them?

When putin was considering this action I can with confidence say potential sanctions were a top 5 item on his list. Unlike Biden, putin probably does plan for every contingency. Holding Germany and a lot of Europe by the balls certainly hedges against potential sanctions.

Sanctions are a non starter and to think this is a decent response is silly.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Do these govt leaders think Russia isn't considering the sanctions or that the sanctions scare them?

When putin was considering this action I can with confidence say potential sanctions were a top 5 item on his list. Unlike Biden, putin probably does plan for every contingency. Holding Germany and a lot of Europe by the balls certainly hedges against potential sanctions.

Sanctions are a non starter and to think this is a decent response is silly.

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I certainly don't think it's the deciding factor. Would really depend on what Europe has the stomach for. Current sanctions are costing Russia roughly 1.5% GDP and are impacting Germany the hardest.

Germany is adamantly ideologically opposed to German military assistance so even though it'll kick them in the nuts harder than any other country they have to lead by example and back massive sanctions or they lose all credibility.

I think NATO, EU, USA are trying to present a death by a thousand cuts scenario to Russia should they go through with this since nobody is under any illusions that NATO ground troops become involved unless Russia made the mistake of "coloring outside the lines".

Sure, but it's not going to stop Russia from doing what it wants. Putin and his cronies have already factored potential sanctions in their calculations. Simply enforcing them won't dissuade putin, especially in the near term.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Sure, but it's not going to stop Russia from doing what it wants. Putin and his cronies have already factored potential sanctions in their calculations. Simply enforcing them won't dissuade putin, especially in the near term.

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Nope. You're absolutely correct. They're hell bent on getting the USSR band back together and primary influence in or control over Ukraine is the necessary first step strategically speaking.

Granted, without getting into a hot war with Russia, I'm not sure there's an adequate response beyond sanctions and sending weapons.

Perhaps the US could conduct a cyber war but that can only stop so many bullets

removed the tweet, possible bad info

Is this the same reports from yesterday or new?

The ma ipulation of the markets continues

Good question, it was from a group that follows the stock market. They posted at the end of the day for information on after hours

Agthatbuilds said:

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Is this the same reports from yesterday or new?

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No way to tell. That's a terrible follow.

aezmvp said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Is this the same reports from yesterday or new?

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No way to tell. That's a terrible follow.

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It's new and comes from the CBS News' David Martin. I haven't found the clip where he said this yet though. Mary Walsh tweeted it though.

@CBSDavidMartin reporting US can see Russia units moving out of assembly areas toward the Ukraine border; it looks like Russian military uncoiling in preparation for an invasion

— Mary Walsh (@CBSWalsh) February 15, 2022

Saw a report on a Ukrainian website that all leaves have been cancelled, ammo issued, and brigade deployed. I do not know anything about this group.

https://censor.net/ua/news/3316428/vsi_syly_oborony_ukrayiny_pryvedeni_u_boyiovu_gotovnist_butusov

aezmvp said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Is this the same reports from yesterday or new?

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No way to tell. That's a terrible follow.

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Numerous sources reporting it within the last hour. Not looking good for Ukraine.

Balls

Amy reliable twitter follows out there for this situation?

Odds on Twitter going down when Russia actually begins the invasion?

Social media will be interesting if this happens. First hot war that will get live streamed? Crimea wasn't quite the same intensity and social media is only more pervasive now