Dan Scott said:
So why can't this just be Russia conducting a war games exercise to rehearse how they'd invade and see how the opposition would react. Countries do that all the time.
Either Putin is a genius how he's manipulating the world or a dumbass going to invade. I don't think he's a dumbass.
It could be and if it is, great. But looking at history makes some of us skeptical. In recent history we have examples of the Russia and Georgia war in 2008. Then we also have Crimea in 2014 and Donbas as a breakaway region where fighting continues to this day. I think there's some parallels between Russia's war with Georgia in 2008 and the current events in Ukraine.
Go back further and the mention by US intelligence of a false flag operation brings the 1939 invasion of Poland to mind.
Edit: Interesting trivia bit, both 2008 and 2014 conflicts were during Olympic Games.