Another great example of the uselessness of the UN peace keepers should have just been lined up on the Ukraine and Russia border before the incursion ever happened.

Something tells me he doesn't. He knows war would be extremely costly and Ukraine probably isn't worth it. However, it would be worth it if he doesn't have to go to war and intimidates his way through it.

That's why the Russians fabricated a pretext. They don't need a reason to invade their neighbor. They don't have to ask anyone permission. However, doing that would invite a lot of international blowback. The point of the slow build up and false flag operations is to test the waters and gauge the western response to the next escalation. They've been politically probing. Now they're acting because the political calculus had determined that the kinetic cost will be minimal, but if the kinetic cost escalates or risks escalating, the cost/benefit calculation is altered substantially. If it's low enough, Russia will back off. I think a combination of international sanctions and the risk of spending hundreds of millions on lost equipment and ammunition would force that if NATO got involved.

Rossticus said:

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aezmvp said:

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Every town a tank trap and sniper nest. Lots and lots of stuff planted to support guerilla actions. Mines like you said and tank/helicopter hunting teams. The Russians have moved a lot of armor in but if the Ukrainians can use their Javelins well it would at least bloody their nose.

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This has to be the equivalent of Viet Cong, Al Qaeda, Taliban, IS and every other low down brutal dirty "unfair" style of combat in a blender. With a dash of WW1 thrown in. Hell, start digging tunnels.

They HAVE to make this a bloody war of will. They can't go head to head with armament but they can shred the people. That's their only chance. Turn Ukraine into a Russian soldier's nightmare. Utter remorseless brutality. I hate it but there's no other option if they don't get substantive outside support.

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Ukraine has to bleed Putin's army for every yard it advances and hope nonstop casualties will create a domestic outcry in Russia. Kiev's conventional forces are in a "use it or lose it" dilemma due to Moscow's overwhelming advantage in the air and artillery of all types, so they need to do maximum damage before they're inevitably overrun. But once the war devolves to isolated skirmishes, close-quarter urban fighting and the constant drain of irregular resistance in the countryside, if Ukrainians can hold on long enough, they have a slim chance of retaining at least part of their country.

Foil, Not Defeat

Breaking: Ukrainians are not fleeing Ukraine, they’re flying in. On my plane from Gdańsk, busy flight. pic.twitter.com/gsHTF4G40q

— Maria Romanenko (@rommari) February 23, 2022

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Holy ***** That's huge. No fly zone, I mean. Would NATO enforce!?!?! Game changer if so.

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Unclear, that's the first report I've seen of that. If it is true and it actually happened (doubtful), then we/the US military is going to be the backbone of that. It also exponentially increases the likelihood of some Russian/separatist (really no difference) ****ing up and causing another international incident like MH17.

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This is where we find out if NATO actually means some of the stuff they've been saying about firm resistance or if they're really telling Ukraine:

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To be fair, NATO has been pretty consistent in their message that NATO will not be fighting the Russians in Ukraine for some time now. I don't see that changing.

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You don't have to fight them. You just have to make Putin believe that you're willing to. That's where he has us. He's got these weenies scared to death that he'll go to war with the whole world and they're scared ishtless.

Has anyone ever played Risk?



Russia is playing the classic strategy of build up your units on territory you plan to take and waiting for the right turn to make your move.

Move too early, risk not having enough troops to hold. Move too late, and you give your opponent enough time to recognize what you are doing to counter.

My opinion (as an expert Risk player) --- Russia is about to strike.

TomFoolery said:

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Another great example of the uselessness of the UN peace keepers should have just been lined up on the Ukraine and Russia border before the incursion ever happened.

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Ah, but the UN has issued a stringent rebuke! That's not enough to make a difference?

NPH- said:

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Has anyone ever played Risk?



Russia is playing the classic strategy of build up your units on territory you plan to take and waiting for the right turn to make your move.

Move too early, risk not having enough troops to hold. Move too late, and you give your opponent enough time to recognize what you are doing to counter.

My opinion (as an expert Risk player) --- Russia is about to strike.

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Hell yeah, we played Risk all of the time when I was young.

aggiehawg said:

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NPH- said:

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Has anyone ever played Risk?



Russia is playing the classic strategy of build up your units on territory you plan to take and waiting for the right turn to make your move.

Move too early, risk not having enough troops to hold. Move too late, and you give your opponent enough time to recognize what you are doing to counter.

My opinion (as an expert Risk player) --- Russia is about to strike.

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Hell yeah, we played Risk all of the time when I was young.

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This one was my favorite to play when I was a kid.

Ukraine is not weak!

This is close to the frontline in Donbas. Very touching. https://t.co/bmVWKuXYHR

— Anders Östlund (@andersostlund) February 23, 2022

Kramatorsk, UA-controlled part of Donetsk obl, 40 km to division line. People sign UA hymn and do not want “Russkiy mir” to come pic.twitter.com/BOD4RwHNHp

— Maria Zolkina (@Mariia_Zolkina) February 23, 2022

Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

Jay Reimenschneider said:

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Ukraine is not weak!

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Rossticus said:

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Breaking: Ukrainians are not fleeing Ukraine, they’re flying in. On my plane from Gdańsk, busy flight. pic.twitter.com/gsHTF4G40q

— Maria Romanenko (@rommari) February 23, 2022

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Ukrainians are actually fleeing Russia. Headed Home

"Ukraine said it was ordering its citizens to leave Russia because "escalating Russian aggression" could limit consular assistance. Around two million Ukrainians live permanently in Russia and another one to two million more are thought to be staying there as migrant workers."

JB!98 said:

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Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

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Not so sure. If they go house to house, so much is going to be destroyed and killed. It is the most brutal type of warfare possible and largely no holds barred. And Russia has PLENTY of experience with it. If they cave they can still keep their infrastructure and most of their lives. If not, and Russia commits, there will be no real mercy. Especially if there are no cameras around.

JB!98 said:

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Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

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Huge sense of pride and also a large animus towards Russia for the famines. If you have ever run into a Hungarian they're very similar in my experience. I was taught by Hungarian Cistercian monks and yeah it's a thing, they REALLY don't like communists.

Eliminatus said:

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JB!98 said:

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Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

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Not so sure. If they go house to house, so much is going to be destroyed and killed. It is the most brutal type of warfare possible and largely no holds barred. And Russia has PLENTY of experience with it. If they cave they can still keep their infrastructure and most of their lives. If not, and Russia commits, there will be no real mercy. Especially if there are no cameras around.

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Sure. Give up your freedom for Russian occupation. I'd fight. We're Americans so I hope you would too.

javajaws said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Being invaded is something I just can't fathom. We are lucky we live where we do.

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We ARE being invaded.

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I see your point, but I was referencing an invasion with a superpowers military.

Rossticus said:

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Eliminatus said:

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JB!98 said:

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Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

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Not so sure. If they go house to house, so much is going to be destroyed and killed. It is the most brutal type of warfare possible and largely no holds barred. And Russia has PLENTY of experience with it. If they cave they can still keep their infrastructure and most of their lives. If not, and Russia commits, there will be no real mercy. Especially if there are no cameras around.

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Sure. Give up your freedom for Russian occupation. I'd fight. We're Americans so I hope you would too.

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That's not the question here. Not trying to derail. Was responding to assertion that giving up now vs fighting would result in same outcome. I don't think that is true.

Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Eliminatus said:

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JB!98 said:

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Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

---

Not so sure. If they go house to house, so much is going to be destroyed and killed. It is the most brutal type of warfare possible and largely no holds barred. And Russia has PLENTY of experience with it. If they cave they can still keep their infrastructure and most of their lives. If not, and Russia commits, there will be no real mercy. Especially if there are no cameras around.

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Sure. Give up your freedom for Russian occupation. I'd fight. We're Americans so I hope you would too.

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That's not the question here. Not trying to derail. Was responding to assertion that giving up now vs fighting would result in same outcome. I don't think that is true.

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Ok. Got it.

Eliminatus said:

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JB!98 said:

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Any NATO no fly zone would be a game changer for sure. My rudimentary research shows that Ukraine has some military capability and has held training with NATO and the US for interoperability. I tend to think that the Ukraine could bleed Russia pretty good if they have a good plan and a willing to fight for every inch. I have no idea about Ukrainian's sense of national pride. If they just roll over the consequences will be the same as if they fight.

---

Not so sure. If they go house to house, so much is going to be destroyed and killed. It is the most brutal type of warfare possible and largely no holds barred. And Russia has PLENTY of experience with it. If they cave they can still keep their infrastructure and most of their lives. If not, and Russia commits, there will be no real mercy. Especially if there are no cameras around.

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No doubt, that's why I asked about national pride etc. If I am going to lose everything that I have, I would rather go out fighting than on my knees regardless of the collateral damage.

Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Holy ***** That's huge. No fly zone, I mean. Would NATO enforce!?!?! Game changer if so.

---

Unclear, that's the first report I've seen of that. If it is true and it actually happened (doubtful), then we/the US military is going to be the backbone of that. It also exponentially increases the likelihood of some Russian/separatist (really no difference) ****ing up and causing another international incident like MH17.

---

This is where we find out if NATO actually means some of the stuff they've been saying about firm resistance or if they're really telling Ukraine:

---

To be fair, NATO has been pretty consistent in their message that NATO will not be fighting the Russians in Ukraine for some time now. I don't see that changing.

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You don't have to fight them. You just have to make Putin believe that you're willing to. That's where he has us. He's got these weenies scared to death that he'll go to war with the whole world and they're scared ishtless.

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I understand what your point is, but my statement stands. NATO/the Western European powers have no will to become involved further than what they already are. To be clear, there is no will even for deception that they have displayed.

If I was South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan I'd start making contingencies not based on US support. We, at least politically, clearly don't have the will. Japan has already reinterpreted article 9 of its constitution to allow aid of allies in combat.

javajaws said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Being invaded is something I just can't fathom. We are lucky we live where we do.

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We ARE being invaded.

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I'm sure the Ukrainians would be thrilled if what they're going through was the same as what we have over here.

Goes into effect midnight February 24th, lasts 30 days.

— Doge (@IntelDoge) February 23, 2022

SouthTex99 said:

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Sounds like this is a GREAT time the US to claim some natural resources in the Artic region.

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But...but... the polar bears...

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Holy ***** That's huge. No fly zone, I mean. Would NATO enforce!?!?! Game changer if so.

---

Unclear, that's the first report I've seen of that. If it is true and it actually happened (doubtful), then we/the US military is going to be the backbone of that. It also exponentially increases the likelihood of some Russian/separatist (really no difference) ****ing up and causing another international incident like MH17.

---

This is where we find out if NATO actually means some of the stuff they've been saying about firm resistance or if they're really telling Ukraine:

---

To be fair, NATO has been pretty consistent in their message that NATO will not be fighting the Russians in Ukraine for some time now. I don't see that changing.

---

You don't have to fight them. You just have to make Putin believe that you're willing to. That's where he has us. He's got these weenies scared to death that he'll go to war with the whole world and they're scared ishtless.

---

I understand what your point is, but my statement stands. NATO/the Western European powers have no will to become involved further than what they already are. To be clear, there is no will even for deception that they have displayed.

If I was South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan I'd start making contingencies not based on US support. We, at least politically, clearly don't have the will. Japan has already reinterpreted article 9 of its constitution to allow aid of allies in combat.

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I hope Taiwan is smart enough at this point to have an advanced nuclear weapons program in progress. We aren't building a bunch of microchip plants in the US because the tech industry expects us to defend Taiwan aggressively against China.

Trump should have got us Greenland

txags92 said:

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I hope Taiwan is smart enough at this point to have an advanced nuclear weapons program in progress. We aren't building a bunch of microchip plants in the US because the tech industry expects us to defend Taiwan aggressively against China.

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Actually we are but it should have started years ago.

At around 8 pm tonight, more than 50 employees of the plant were evacuated. https://t.co/RycO8vSYHv

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 23, 2022

Such evil isht.

Pure political theatre. Putin's "unscheduled" live emergency meeting with his security council was broadcast at 5pm. Sergei Shoigu & Sergei Lavrov watches both say 11:45.