I have a feeling the balloon is about to go up.

40,255 Views | 261 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Sea Speed
Joe Boudain
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If no one has been paying attention for the last 10 years, the entire stock market lives on credit and issued debt. Look at any large drilling contractor and see when they last had a positive earnings per share. How do they keep operating? By taking on debt. What happens when the music stops?
Not a Bot
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Evergrande is about to bite the dust. They are going to miss large bond interest payments in the next 24 hours.

China is facing a huge liquidity crunch. A lot of banks in China are going to be tied down by the issues with Evergrande, and some may go down with it.

This will not even come close to affecting the US banking system like Lehman Brothers did, but there will be some ripple effects here. It will affect our supply chains. If a manufacturing company in China has a hard time getting a loan to set up new equipment for a US manufacturing contract or to build new shipping containers or whatever, it makes life more difficult here. Simple example but you get the picture.

Trying to find information on what banks are putting money in the Fed, quite possibly it's international.
P.U.T.U
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Sinic's stocks were halted after they lost 87% so it looks like there will be 2 large property companies default. I posted this on another thread. We will find out on Wednesday when their market opens back up on what is going to happen, Sinic went from $1.3 billion Monday morning to $250.7 by the afternoon

Sinic sell off

Quote:

NEW DELHI: Trading was halted in shares of Chinese realtor Sinic Holdings on Monday after its shares crashed 87 per cent in Hong Kong. This is on a day when shares of China's second biggest realtor Evergrande plunged 11 per cent on the same exchange, as investors feared defaults in the Chinese real estate sector.

Shares of Sinic holdings fell 87 per cent to hit a low of 0.50 Hong Kong cents. Sinic Holdings is an investment holding company, which along with its subsidiaries, is principal engaged in property development and property leasing, according to Reuters.
Ag In Ok
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I can agree to an extent, but what issue would the mafia have with liquidity if they controlled both banking and monetary policy? It's like a war that costs 100 million lives - it is manageable if you have a pollution over 1.3 billion. So the same for liquidity - what would a bank do when the CCP says it never happened and forced western interests to pony up more? It's breaking bad with the power of a central bank.
Not a Bot
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If China wants to self isolate, have no more dealings with the international community, and collapse their economy, sure. Doing so would also destabilize the CCP due to the resulting economic meltdown.
Joe Boudain
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So guys, it's starting to happen. This is one of our customers (not our main one) and is a smaller drilling contractor.

Gate valve repair kits are out of stock and won't be back in for months as almost all of them are made in India or China and stuck in port, so they're just duct taping the damn things.

This isn't our product line, just something one of my guys snapped while he was out on location.
YouBet
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That seems safe.
titan
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Question: What exactly prevents expediting things "stuck in ports"?

And by that mean, use WW II methods if need-be and build temporary docks and wharfs to offload at if necessary, and use troops to do it?

And in similar ways in whatever is being disrupted. Its bad enough production overseas is down. Its not acceptable to have it available and just not getting through.
TheEternalPessimist
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Joe Boudain said:

So guys, it's starting to happen. This is one of our customers (not our main one) and is a smaller drilling contractor.

Gate valve repair kits are out of stock and won't be back in for months as almost all of them are made in India or China and stuck in port, so they're just duct taping the damn things.

This isn't our product line, just something one of my guys snapped while he was out on location.


Biden's EPA approves!
Joe Boudain
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titan said:


Question: What exactly prevents expediting things "stuck in ports"?

And by that mean, use WW II methods if need-be and build temporary docks and wharfs to offload at if necessary, and use troops to do it?

And in similar ways in whatever is being disrupted. Its bad enough production overseas is down. Its not acceptable to have it available and just not getting through.
politics. Picture the professionalism and efficiency of the post office, and then have them unload containers instead of letters.

Not only that, but part of the reason why the ports are so backed up is that major ports are in liberal states that have draconian covid rules. Imagine having to quarantine everytime someone you passed by is positive.

Also, it's a problem that isn't fixable over night, you can't just train someone to unload containers in a week. By the time the problem gets realized and gains enough political capital to fix, it's still a few years away from being fixed.

I think the problem will explode in a few months, when there are no retail goods for black friday/christmas.
titan
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Joe Boudain said:

titan said:


Question: What exactly prevents expediting things "stuck in ports"?

And by that mean, use WW II methods if need-be and build temporary docks and wharfs to offload at if necessary, and use troops to do it?

And in similar ways in whatever is being disrupted. Its bad enough production overseas is down. Its not acceptable to have it available and just not getting through.
politics. Picture the professionalism and efficiency of the post office, and then have them unload containers instead of letters.

Not only that, but part of the reason why the ports are so backed up is that major ports are in liberal states that have draconian covid rules. Imagine having to quarantine everytime someone you passed by is positive.

Also, it's a problem that isn't fixable over night, you can't just train someone to unload containers in a week. By the time the problem gets realized and gains enough political capital to fix, it's still a few years away from being fixed.

I think the problem will explode in a few months, when there are no retail goods for black friday/christmas.
I understand and can see most of what you are saying. The one thing that is off is if they were right wing or just sensible, they could find ways to offload the cargo faster and incrementally if need be, as they did at the atolls. (They had `traffic jams and backlogs" there then too) . Now maybe valve parts and stuff do not rate that kind of haste, but some more critical items and necessities arguably do.

We really need a big actual right wing party ---- that's what it does, its anti-Left, and pro efficient and effectiveness. Not crony.
Joe Boudain
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titan said:

Joe Boudain said:

titan said:


Question: What exactly prevents expediting things "stuck in ports"?

And by that mean, use WW II methods if need-be and build temporary docks and wharfs to offload at if necessary, and use troops to do it?

And in similar ways in whatever is being disrupted. Its bad enough production overseas is down. Its not acceptable to have it available and just not getting through.
politics. Picture the professionalism and efficiency of the post office, and then have them unload containers instead of letters.

Not only that, but part of the reason why the ports are so backed up is that major ports are in liberal states that have draconian covid rules. Imagine having to quarantine everytime someone you passed by is positive.

Also, it's a problem that isn't fixable over night, you can't just train someone to unload containers in a week. By the time the problem gets realized and gains enough political capital to fix, it's still a few years away from being fixed.

I think the problem will explode in a few months, when there are no retail goods for black friday/christmas.
I understand and can see most of what you are saying. The one thing that is off is if they were right wing or just sensible, they could find ways to offload the cargo faster and incrementally if need be, as they did at the atolls. (They had `traffic jams and backlogs" there then too) . Now maybe valve parts and stuff do not rate that kind of haste, but some more critical items and necessities arguably do.

We really need a big actual right wing party ---- that's what it does, its anti-Left, and pro efficient and effectiveness. Not crony.
Yeah, we're trying both sides are too busy trying to call us fascists and argue over how much money we give to other countries.
titan
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Newsflash: not everything the real fascists did was wrong or even a bad approach.

Ignore labels from those not an ally. I wonder how much the Marines pay attention to "infidel"!

The press uses fascist the same way.
Ag In Ok
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I have no context to give, other than i read Long Beach is backed up.

And Galveston looks backed up as well

FWIW, the number of ships anchored off shore of China is staggering.

padreislandagfan
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Anchorage is often like tat in Galveston.

Some vessels are bunkering.
Sea Speed
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Thats not too terrible for galveston. Houston is one of the busiest ports in the world. Ships are moving like crazy through here.
mwp02ag
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What does a gate repair kit consist of? What would this company be willing to pay for them?

This is an opportunity for the entrepreneur that can figure out how to manufacture them here, sounds like you maybe able to charge what you want for them right about now.
HumpitPuryear
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Ag In Ok said:

I have no context to give, other than i read Long Beach is backed up.

And Galveston looks backed up as well

FWIW, the number of ships anchored off shore of China is staggering.


Are those ships in China loaded and waiting for the ports to unclog or are they waiting on goods from Chinese manufacturers? ie are the goods available but not leaving port or are the goods not even available to be shipped. My suppliers (wireless telecom) are quoting 16+ weeks ARO on parts that were generally stock or 2 weeks ARO. I'm trying to determine if the parts are available but can't get here or they aren't being manufactured at all?
nu awlins ag
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UntoldSpirit said:

Everything seems broken right now. Nothing is working like it should.


And yet the idiots that voted for Biden are clearly clueless because they all majored in art, English, psychology etc. and don't understand basic economical principles.
Joe Boudain
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mwp02ag said:

What does a gate repair kit consist of? What would this company be willing to pay for them?

This is an opportunity for the entrepreneur that can figure out how to manufacture them here, sounds like you maybe able to charge what you want for them right about now.
There's a bunch of seals, fittings, o-rings and the like. The company would be prepared to pay a lot for them. Where do I get the steel? Where do I get the plastic? How do I make the molds for the urethane parts? I actually own a urethane manufacturing facility in Houston, and understand that it takes complex machining to make the molds for the products, as well as FEA to determine how to actually route the plastic through the machine into the mold to make sure it molds correctly.

The first rule I tell every new employee (there are a few who actually post here so they can corroborate) is my favorite scene from the movie fight club. Whenever you are faced with a project, pretend that someone is going to shoot you in the head if you don't succeed in the time frame necessary. Figure out what you would do if your life depended on it, and then with that in mind, scale it back to the most efficient way.

We are way past that now, now you get shot in the head. There just isn't stuff available. I'm having a hard enough time keeping my actual product line in stock than chasing after new products that I don't have the capacity for.
Ag In Ok
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Are you the hardest working man in urethane and naphtha?
Joe Boudain
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Ag In Ok said:

Are you the hardest working man in urethane and naphtha?


Went out and took a pic of my injection molder just for you. Running the first few articles of our Breast Cancer awareness pink edition product line.

That's a urethane injection molder in the back.
YouBet
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The other challenge is that those port jobs are unionized. These are people that make $150k a year or more that went on wage strike a couple of years ago too. Lol.

Sea Speed
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Those cali Longshoreman unions are a real B
titan
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YouBet said:

The other challenge is that those port jobs are unionized. These are people that make $150k a year or more that went on wage strike a couple of years ago too. Lol.


Ah-ha. Got you. Did you know there was even a strike at the Port Darwin docks, during World War II in Australia?? And not when all was winning. That place has always been more than a little unpredictable.
YouBet
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titan said:

YouBet said:

The other challenge is that those port jobs are unionized. These are people that make $150k a year or more that went on wage strike a couple of years ago too. Lol.


Ah-ha. Got you. Did you know there was even a strike at the Port Darwin docks, during World War II in Australia?? And not when all was winning. That place has always been more than a little unpredictable.
No. That's nuts
BAP Enthusiast
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YouBet said:

That seems safe.


Exactly. This is going to be the norm if the supply chain breaks down. We will be running equipment under many psi of pressure that is held together with duct tape and glue. This is not going to end well.
Hammerly High Dive Crips
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BAP Enthusiast said:

YouBet said:

That seems safe.


Exactly. This is going to be the norm if the supply chain breaks down. We will be running equipment under many psi of pressure that is held together with duct tape and glue. This is not going to end well.
They are succeeding in reducing us to third world country status bit by bit. Liberalism is a cancer.
Agnes Moffitt Rollin 60's - RIP Casper and Lil Ricky - FREE GOOFY AND LUCKY!
agracer
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BAP Enthusiast said:

YouBet said:

That seems safe.


Exactly. This is going to be the norm if the supply chain breaks down. We will be running equipment under many psi of pressure that is held together with duct tape and glue. This is not going to end well.
That duct tape isn't holding anything.
Artorias
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SIAP

A record number of cargo ships are stuck outside LA. What's happening? | Los Angeles | The Guardian
Agsquatch
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this is terrible news

hey what's the ticker symbol
BAP Enthusiast
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agracer said:

BAP Enthusiast said:

YouBet said:

That seems safe.


Exactly. This is going to be the norm if the supply chain breaks down. We will be running equipment under many psi of pressure that is held together with duct tape and glue. This is not going to end well.
That duct tape isn't holding anything.


Nothing much else they can except weld it, but I imagine welding supplies are also difficult to find right now.
one MEEN Ag
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Joe Boudain said:

So guys, it's starting to happen. This is one of our customers (not our main one) and is a smaller drilling contractor.

Gate valve repair kits are out of stock and won't be back in for months as almost all of them are made in India or China and stuck in port, so they're just duct taping the damn things.


Most gate valves look similar to this. What are you repairing such that duct tape is holding it all together until help arrives? If the bonnet is loose, there are bolts to tighten. If the bearings have play in them and then packing is leaking, duct tape isn't solving anything.

P.U.T.U
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There are several other docks that are being used to makeup for the backlogs but those take time to build up to their full protentional. That is why things are not likely to start getting better until this time next year.
sanangelo
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Meat processing plant had $4 million in approved financing to be built here. The principles canceled the project. Not enough pull-thru demand for smaller customers like Asian markets and such that the plant would deliver product to. Meanwhile we are paying a fortune for meat at Sam's Club.
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