believe what you want, but that dude isn't Barnes.

I'm not vouching for anyone here, but id bet my check on this not being Barnes. I feel like I am goaltending and that wasn't what I set out to do so ill drop it.

Joe Boudain said:

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I've been seeing the tremors for the last few months or so, but I think the big one is on the horizon.

The US is about to be out of stuff, and by stuff I mean literally everything.

I own the biggest privately owned drilling products manufacturer in my section of the industry, and I have been getting panic calls from virtually every main drilling contractor trying to find equipment which nobody has.

I'm the exclusive manufacturer for the #4 largest drilling contactor in North America, and I'm contractually obligated to keep 6 months of consumption on hand for them, and if I didn't have that, they would be going dark.

Outside of my product they can't get rig wash, top drive spares, bop spares, pd spares, handling tool spares you name it. Other companies are in much worse shape, and are having rigs on npt due to lack of availability of critical items.

Outside of my industry I have a buddy who is a big wig at Aldi, and he says paper goods, plastic goods, and consumer good lead times are pushing out to 20 weeks, and they only have about 6 weeks supply that they're confident of.

In short, I think you'll see emptier grocery stores, public utilities without spare parts, drilling rigs idle from lack of equipment, and product trickling in from the ports which are running at 15% capacity.

Imagine what this country looks like when people have limited food, no water, no power, and gas costs $8/gallon. It ain't gonna be pretty.

---

My local HEB was out of Gatorade and juice boxes today with a tag referencing plastic shortages, now it makes sense. Thanks OP

Walking Dead... here we come!

agsalaska said:

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Hardest working man in oil!

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Even if it's him, he's not wrong. China and The Taliban have us by the balls right now.

I work in pricing. Used to be in transportation but now in building supplies. Cost of shipping a container of nails from China 1-2 years ago: $1700-1900. Last week cost $27000. This literally doubles the cost of those same nails outside of the cost of materials. This is crazy.

Tanya 93 said:

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bonfarr said:

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HEB in San Antonio had not a single juice box or Capri Sun on the shelf and not a single bagger in the store on Labor Day.


What the hell is going on.

---

Honestly?

They probably cannot get the plastic straws combined with back to school and they go in everyone's lunches

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You probably don't know this, but supply chains plan for seasonal demand. COVID and global unrest? Not so much.

I can unequivocally say that he isn't barnes.

Bidens leg hairs said:

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What's the cause? Bottleneck at the ports?

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You know, the thing.

bonfarr said:

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HEB in San Antonio had not a single juice box or Capri Sun on the shelf and not a single bagger in the store on Labor Day.


What the hell is going on.

---

I went to HEB for onion rings and there were none! I wanted some with my hamburgers.

FriscoKid said:

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Tanya 93 said:

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bonfarr said:

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HEB in San Antonio had not a single juice box or Capri Sun on the shelf and not a single bagger in the store on Labor Day.


What the hell is going on.

---

Honestly?

They probably cannot get the plastic straws combined with back to school and they go in everyone's lunches

---

You probably don't know this, but supply chains plan for seasonal demand. COVID and global unrest? Not so much.

---

I do know this
But there are not as many plastics available for straws due to the last 18 months
So they produce what they can but it is not an easily replaced thing now if they are bought for school but no more straws can come.

Predmid said:

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THere's a supply shortage of quite literally everything in construction right now.


Hell, my contractors had to go to cash only concrete deliveries for a while because the main portland manufacturers were rationing supply to other regions.


It's utterly ridiculous everywhere.

Try to find a reasonably priced 50 lb tub of pool chlorine. Pool store wanted $250 for it. I'd rather my pool turn green than pay that price.

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I paid $185 for shock

TAMU1990 said:

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Predmid said:

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THere's a supply shortage of quite literally everything in construction right now.


Hell, my contractors had to go to cash only concrete deliveries for a while because the main portland manufacturers were rationing supply to other regions.


It's utterly ridiculous everywhere.

Try to find a reasonably priced 50 lb tub of pool chlorine. Pool store wanted $250 for it. I'd rather my pool turn green than pay that price.

---

I paid $185 for shock

---

i mean, they say pools are expensive, but this **** is ridiculous.

Not only plastics and straws, I went to a subway that had solo cups, I've heard a few other places had regular Styrofoam without their typical brand.

The only good thing is black Friday might be a lot more tame with covid restrictions and lack of merchandise.

I'm not an economist but I think it goes like this.

1. Covid shuts down all demand
2. Government prints money and mails it to the masses.
3. Government puts a freeze on rent payments which combined with #2 gives low wage earners very little incentive to go to work
4. Covid slows down and demand comes back. Supply is still lagging. Demand is outpacing supply which is causing delays and price increases across the board.
5. Labor is still difficult to come by as people have not felt the pain yet.

Seems like the wheels are about to fall off. Rising prices in a consumer economy where the populace isn't working. What happens when the populace runs out of funny money? No demand and rising prices is what you'd call a stall.

Got a call from my cabinet maker today.

Glides and rollers are basically sold out. His supply was getting 2000 this week but already has orders for 8000.

It's happening.

rudy99 said:

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Bidens leg hairs said:

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What's the cause? Bottleneck at the ports?

---

You know, the thing.

---

Several things. New fuel requirements for ocean shipping. Crunch on containers that 90%+ are made in China which has experienced numerous work interpretations and slow downs due to COVID restrictions that arent always well reported on. A continuing shortage of truckers right after switching to ELD (electronic logging) meant to cut down on driving too many hours, a spike in drug and alcohol use by drivers over the last year also reducing supply (you don't seat someone showing up drunk), labor shortages at most major ports but especially on the west coast, a suction of drivers away from long haul and drayage (to railroad spurs) and towards local deliveries ( better pay, more home time ), similarly last year when fuel shippers laid drivers off that sucked licensed fuel drivers out of the system amd it doesnt really pay more, manufacturers of rigs and trailers having issues with parts (chips), repairs same thing, etc.

And the system likes to rubber band. Do it enough and yeah bad back ups. Oh and you have to pay for the ships and their crews while anchored off port which means big shipping overruns that pass into your rail, FTL, LTL, air and small pack shipping too.

So as a person running the finances of a household, how do you prepare? Investment moves, things to be hoarding, anything specific?

Don't forget the shortage of computer chips

And our country doesn't have its eye on the ball.

Joined TexAgs in July of this year….

You wouldn't happen to work for Patriot Supply would you?

Joe Boudain said:

---

I've been seeing the tremors for the last few months or so, but I think the big one is on the horizon.

The US is about to be out of stuff, and by stuff I mean literally everything.

I own the biggest privately owned drilling products manufacturer in my section of the industry, and I have been getting panic calls from virtually every main drilling contractor trying to find equipment which nobody has.

I'm the exclusive manufacturer for the #4 largest drilling contactor in North America, and I'm contractually obligated to keep 6 months of consumption on hand for them, and if I didn't have that, they would be going dark.

Outside of my product they can't get rig wash, top drive spares, bop spares, pd spares, handling tool spares you name it. Other companies are in much worse shape, and are having rigs on npt due to lack of availability of critical items.

Outside of my industry I have a buddy who is a big wig at Aldi, and he says paper goods, plastic goods, and consumer good lead times are pushing out to 20 weeks, and they only have about 6 weeks supply that they're confident of.

In short, I think you'll see emptier grocery stores, public utilities without spare parts, drilling rigs idle from lack of equipment, and product trickling in from the ports which are running at 15% capacity.

Imagine what this country looks like when people have limited food, no water, no power, and gas costs $8/gallon. It ain't gonna be pretty.

---

MFBarnes - You're going to have to try harder.

It is eerie driving by car dealerships and the lots are 3/4ths empty.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Bidens leg hairs said:

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What's the cause? Bottleneck at the ports?

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You have to tear everything down, if you want to "Build Back Better."

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The Paul Krugman economic strategy!

agsalaska said:

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Sea Speed said:

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Illustrious Potentate said:

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agsalaska said:

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Hardest working man in oil!

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Certainly smells like it.

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No, this is a long time poster who i won't out but everyone here knows him. Back in the day he posted more info than this and it was easy to figure out who he was and what his business was.

One time he complained about the stupid handicap parking spots at his facility and I thought that was hilarious.

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Yea maybe.

He also has a thread in the religion board saying that Christians need to be more like the Taliban.

I don't know not saying we don't have supply issues. I'm just saying…

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It's not who you think it is. I know the OP personally and he's legit. If he's saying this, then we should absolutely be concerned.

Joe Boudain said:

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Not only plastics and straws, I went to a subway that had solo cups, I've heard a few other places had regular Styrofoam without their typical brand.

The only good thing is black Friday might be a lot more tame with covid restrictions and lack of merchandise.

---

Many places are out of large cups or cups of a certain size, seen it myself everywhere.

Sea Speed said:

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I'm not vouching for anyone here, but id bet my check on this not being Barnes. I feel like I am goaltending and that wasn't what I set out to do so ill drop it.

---

Well, since you joined TexAgs in May of '21, you've got plenty of cred to splash around defending or running decoy for a MFBarnes sock.

MSCAg said:

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It is eerie driving by car dealerships and the lots are 3/4ths empty.

---

CSTXAg92 said:

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Sea Speed said:

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I'm not vouching for anyone here, but id bet my check on this not being Barnes. I feel like I am goaltending and that wasn't what I set out to do so ill drop it.

---

Well, since you joined TexAgs in May of '21, you've got plenty of cred to splash around defending or running decoy for a MFBarnes sock.

---

It isn't Barnes.

BAP Enthusiast said:

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CSTXAg92 said:

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Sea Speed said:

---

I'm not vouching for anyone here, but id bet my check on this not being Barnes. I feel like I am goaltending and that wasn't what I set out to do so ill drop it.

---

Well, since you joined TexAgs in May of '21, you've got plenty of cred to splash around defending or running decoy for a MFBarnes sock.

---

It isn't Barnes.

---

Says another poster sock that joined July 14th, 2021

Tanya 93 said:

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FriscoKid said:

---

Tanya 93 said:

---

bonfarr said:

---

HEB in San Antonio had not a single juice box or Capri Sun on the shelf and not a single bagger in the store on Labor Day.


What the hell is going on.

---

Honestly?

They probably cannot get the plastic straws combined with back to school and they go in everyone's lunches

---

You probably don't know this, but supply chains plan for seasonal demand. COVID and global unrest? Not so much.

---

I do know this
But there are not as many plastics available for straws due to the last 18 months
So they produce what they can but it is not an easily replaced thing now if they are bought for school but no more straws can come.

---

With all do respect, I don't think that you do. The process to get a simple straw in your kid's milk is more complex than you could imagine. You don't just buy a pound of plastic and turn it into something that you can consume.

Before you can even put the pellets in the injection molding die you have to get the raw materials from the peteo plant that made the raw plastic compounds in the first place and sent them to another company that turned them into those pellets. Then the straw manufacturer has to manufacture or buy the molds that would shape the straw and electronics would have to melt the plastic and inject that liquid plastic into the mold to form the straw. Then the mold will quickly cool and open up to spit out the straw that you can find in your school.

You also have dyes that are mixed with the plastic pellets to give them the "cute" lines that make it appealing for you the consumer. Then comes the supply chain and forecasting for delivering that straw to your school. The company that makes the straws knows that they will be selling millions of straws to schools and also filling orders to companies like Starbucks where they make smaller straws for coffee stir sticks.

The electronics, equipment, chemistry, etc would blow your mind. You can't just say "make more plastics" and it happens like some unicorn appearing on a magic cloud. The modern world and your creature comfort doesn't work that way. If China stops shipping us finished goods then we are screwed. You have no idea how complex it is to make the most simple thing.

CSTXAg92 said:

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BAP Enthusiast said:

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CSTXAg92 said:

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Sea Speed said:

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I'm not vouching for anyone here, but id bet my check on this not being Barnes. I feel like I am goaltending and that wasn't what I set out to do so ill drop it.

---

Well, since you joined TexAgs in May of '21, you've got plenty of cred to splash around defending or running decoy for a MFBarnes sock.

---

It isn't Barnes.

---

Says another poster sock that joined July 14th, 2021

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Let's just say I'm not new and leave it at that.

Secolobo said:

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Almost……..like………..it…….was……….all………..planned.

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Sure looks that way.

Quote:

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And we would all be naked because we don't have any textile anymore.

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You have no idea how accurate that statement is. Last big time, big money comissioned study I got to look at, paid for by a huge world wide bedding company, attributed at least 68% of the worlds fibers, as in cotton and all man made stuff i.e. basically 68% of every textile, to China. They basically control the modern/accessible textile equipment manufacturing in the world as well.

What this country did to the best, most vibrant, and most decent textile industry the world has ever seen was basically criminal.

CSTXAg92 said:

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Sea Speed said:

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I'm not vouching for anyone here, but id bet my check on this not being Barnes. I feel like I am goaltending and that wasn't what I set out to do so ill drop it.

---

Well, since you joined TexAgs in May of '21, you've got plenty of cred to splash around defending or running decoy for a MFBarnes sock.

---

you can believe what you want, but neither of the things you just said are true. im not going to prove it because that would be stupid, but its the truth. i dont have anything against you for being skeptical, im skeptical about almost everything posted on this site, but im being 100% honest with you.

bonfarr said:

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HEB in San Antonio had not a single juice box or Capri Sun on the shelf and not a single bagger in the store on Labor Day.


What the hell is going on.

---

My friend near SA has a son who is an HEB store manager. He is telling her that early evidence of unnecessary buying is evident at his and other HEB stores. His first clues were declining delivery volumes and purchases clearly in excess of routine needs.

She lives in an area where there are no large grocery stores nearby, so he brought her meat, dairy, eggs, soup, TP, bottled water, bread, soda, rice, pinto beans, and other staples, in case things get crazy.

Fortunately, she has an acre of refrigerator and freezer space.

If people sense a return to Covid-related shortages, the problem will explode.