Consolidated Fall of Kabul Update Thread

423,978 Views | 3966 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Señor Chang
74OA
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It's too bad we stepped on our dick on the way out, but after 20 years of our blood and treasure I'm damn glad we've stopped pouring sand down that particular rathole.
titan
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Iran? That's going to get kind of odd with the Taliban in full control and not having to do pretenses--- they are not Shi'ia as far as know --- they take from Iran for opportunistic reasons, but wonder how much actually like them. Would have expected perhaps more Pakistani involvement.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
cbr
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I'm no expert but i know enough about military operations to know that combat power is founded in logistics, information superiority, and air superiority/flank control, even more than individual unit potential firepower or even skill.

no food, no water, no bullets, no data, no win, most of the time.

the biden administration dumped 5000 light infantry into a theater which it already gutted of all of these foundations. These troops are strategically just 5000 more victims or hostages if the taliban chooses to contest the air space and attack their positions with 10x numbers or more, especially now with our armored vehicles, US weapons and night vision equipment.

the lack of worry about a message from the whitehouse, and the tone of the messages from the taliban, prove that this was all foreseen and allowed by this administration, in a deal made with the Taliban before hand, and probably under chinese influence.

it also demonstrates that the DNC doesnt even care at all what the american people think anymore, they know we wont do **** about it.



aggiehawg
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titan said:


Iran? That's going to get kind of odd with the Taliban in full control and not having to do pretenses--- they are not Shi'ia as far as know --- they take from Iran for opportunistic reasons, but wonder how much actually like them. Would have expected perhaps more Pakistani involvement.
Iran just wants training bases for their terrorist groups that they support. China wants rare earth minerals, etc.
Beat40
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74OA said:

It's too bad we stepped on our dick on the way out, but after 20 years of our blood and treasure I'm damn glad we've stopped pouring sand down that particular rathole.
I actually think most people on both sides agree we should get out and be out.

However with the thumbs up and wording like "it's too bad" we bungled the extraction really does a disservice to the US citizens who are non-military and are there currently wondering if they're going to get out.

We can all agree we don't want to be there, but let's at least be honest and highly critical of our government for leaving US citizens in harms way when it certainly seems like they had little or no plan to get them out before pulling the military out.
BAP Enthusiast
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YouBet said:

I do not believe the Taliban spokesman for a minute. However, it will be incredible if they stick to the script here and make us look like fools even further if they come out of this with a more secure and stable country by kicking us out.


If they are successful and build a stable country and slowly build up infrastructure while improving quality of life then it will be interesting to see how all of the early figures of the Taliban are viewed 50 years from now. I don't expect they would ever be allowed to go their own way, the globalists of the world will never allow that to happen without their oversight.
aggiehawg
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cbr said:

I'm no expert but i know enough about military operations to know that combat power is founded in logistics, information superiority, and air superiority/flank control, even more than individual unit potential firepower or even skill.

no food, no water, no bullets, no data, no win, most of the time.

the biden administration dumped 5000 light infantry into a theater which it already gutted of all of these foundations. These troops are strategically just 5000 more victims or hostages if the taliban chooses to contest the air space and attack their positions with 10x numbers or more, especially now with our armored vehicles, US weapons and night vision equipment.

the lack of worry about a message from the whitehouse, and the tone of the messages from the taliban, prove that this was all foreseen and allowed by this administration, in a deal made with the Taliban before hand, and probably under chinese influence.

it also demonstrates that the DNC doesnt even care at all what the american people think anymore, they know we wont do **** about it.




In theory, we can resupply with planes coming into the airport. Notice I said in theory. Listening to the Major General in charge of logistics was less than encouraging this morning that he remotely has handle on any of that.
aggiehawg
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BAP Enthusiast said:

YouBet said:

I do not believe the Taliban spokesman for a minute. However, it will be incredible if they stick to the script here and make us look like fools even further if they come out of this with a more secure and stable country by kicking us out.


If they are successful and build a stable country and slowly build up infrastructure while improving quality of life then it will be interesting to see how all of the early figures of the Taliban are viewed 50 years from now. I don't expect they would ever be allowed to go their own way, the globalists of the world will never allow that to happen without their oversight.
What do you consider a "stable government"??
Ag In Ok
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Tajikistan May want to reunite with their fellow Tajiks. And their mineral rich mountains. China won't be able to get the spoils of war if the Tajiks consolidate.
cbr
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aggiehawg said:

cbr said:

I'm no expert but i know enough about military operations to know that combat power is founded in logistics, information superiority, and air superiority/flank control, even more than individual unit potential firepower or even skill.

no food, no water, no bullets, no data, no win, most of the time.

the biden administration dumped 5000 light infantry into a theater which it already gutted of all of these foundations. These troops are strategically just 5000 more victims or hostages if the taliban chooses to contest the air space and attack their positions with 10x numbers or more, especially now with our armored vehicles, US weapons and night vision equipment.

the lack of worry about a message from the whitehouse, and the tone of the messages from the taliban, prove that this was all foreseen and allowed by this administration, in a deal made with the Taliban before hand, and probably under chinese influence.

it also demonstrates that the DNC doesnt even care at all what the american people think anymore, they know we wont do **** about it.




In theory, we can resupply with planes coming into the airport. Notice I said in theory. Listening to the Major General in charge of logistics was less than encouraging this morning that he remotely has handle on any of that.
i dont think we have air superiority assets in place to fight our way in and conduct a contested airlift anymore. that would require probably 3 full carrier groups, with land based refueling assets, and i dont think we can pull that off right now. i dont see us having enough land based airpower to do it with any kind of acceptable loss rate, but i could definitely be wrong. i have not studied it.
Ag In Ok
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One carrier, one Amphibious Group in the Arabian Sea. That's it.
titan
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aggiehawg said:

titan said:


Iran? That's going to get kind of odd with the Taliban in full control and not having to do pretenses--- they are not Shi'ia as far as know --- they take from Iran for opportunistic reasons, but wonder how much actually like them. Would have expected perhaps more Pakistani involvement.
Iran just wants training bases for their terrorist groups that they support. China wants rare earth minerals, etc.
Exactly. But what do the Taliban want? And the Pakistan connection --- its hard to imagine they like Iran a great deal. It will get a little interesting for China.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
aggiehawg
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Ag In Ok said:

Tajikistan May want to reunite with their fellow Tajiks. And their mineral rich mountains. China won't be able to get the spoils of war if the Tajiks consolidate.
That's an authoritarian regime. Same "President" since 1994.

Don't think the Taliban will want to share power.
cbr
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Ag In Ok said:

One carrier, one Amphibious Group in the Arabian Sea. That's it.
thats all it would take or thats all we have?

because i think the taliban could overrun the air base on the ground and prevent an airlift even if we did have the air assets in place to overcome whatever ground to air capability they have without significant losses.
Sea Speed
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Probably do not have enough auxiliary fleet support ships to send over more carrier groups anyways, so its kind if a moot point.
BAP Enthusiast
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aggiehawg said:

BAP Enthusiast said:

YouBet said:

I do not believe the Taliban spokesman for a minute. However, it will be incredible if they stick to the script here and make us look like fools even further if they come out of this with a more secure and stable country by kicking us out.


If they are successful and build a stable country and slowly build up infrastructure while improving quality of life then it will be interesting to see how all of the early figures of the Taliban are viewed 50 years from now. I don't expect they would ever be allowed to go their own way, the globalists of the world will never allow that to happen without their oversight.
What do you consider a "stable government"??


One that improves the lives of its citizens and has little internal issues. Hint: our government does not meet this definition.
aggiehawg
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titan said:

aggiehawg said:

titan said:


Iran? That's going to get kind of odd with the Taliban in full control and not having to do pretenses--- they are not Shi'ia as far as know --- they take from Iran for opportunistic reasons, but wonder how much actually like them. Would have expected perhaps more Pakistani involvement.
Iran just wants training bases for their terrorist groups that they support. China wants rare earth minerals, etc.
Exactly. But what do the Taliban want? And the Pakistan connection --- its hard to imagine they like Iran a great deal. It will get a little interesting for China.
Taliban can bought off by the mullahs of Iran easily enough. I honestly don't know what the Pakis are thinking.

China has made their intentions clearer. They will formally recognize the Islamic Emirate (or whatever it is being called) and then offer the Belts and Roads approach to keep the money flowing.
Not a Bot
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There is absolutely nothing in that for them. It is so abundantly clear from that press conference that they do not want to cause an international incident. They want things to go as smoothly as possible.

According to Fox News:

Quote:


A White House official told Fox News Tuesday that military and civilian flights from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul are resuming.

The official said that over the last 24 hours, the U.S. has been able to move more than 700 people out of Afghanistan, including 150 American citizens.

The official said the State Department has sent messages to some American citizens in Afghanistan sharing information with them on how to safely assemble at the airport for flights out.


That's another sign that there has been a negotiated exit.
titan
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BAP Enthusiast said:

aggiehawg said:

BAP Enthusiast said:

YouBet said:

I do not believe the Taliban spokesman for a minute. However, it will be incredible if they stick to the script here and make us look like fools even further if they come out of this with a more secure and stable country by kicking us out.


If they are successful and build a stable country and slowly build up infrastructure while improving quality of life then it will be interesting to see how all of the early figures of the Taliban are viewed 50 years from now. I don't expect they would ever be allowed to go their own way, the globalists of the world will never allow that to happen without their oversight.
What do you consider a "stable government"??


One that improves the lives of its citizens and has little internal issues. Hint: our government does not meet this definition.
That is absolutely true at present, yes.

The thing to look for with this Taliban-redux is whether they do actually enforce the few limits on mis-conduct that even sharia offers women. You see, under the more fundamentalist versions, even those thin protections are lacking. Strictly speaking, if you hold to a 10th Amendment view of the world, then ultimately the choice must be theirs what they will allow. You can't live lives for another person.

FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
cbr
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Captain Positivity said:

There is absolutely nothing in that for them. It is so abundantly clear from that press conference that they do not want to cause an international incident. They want things to go as smoothly as possible.

According to Fox News:

Quote:


A White House official told Fox News Tuesday that military and civilian flights from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul are resuming.

The official said that over the last 24 hours, the U.S. has been able to move more than 700 people out of Afghanistan, including 150 American citizens.

The official said the State Department has sent messages to some American citizens in Afghanistan sharing information with them on how to safely assemble at the airport for flights out.


That's another sign that there has been a negotiated exit.
We are saying the same thing. It was bought and paid for.
Not a Bot
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They already say they are offering more in terms of women's rights than what the prior version did. They've also clearly embraced technology, photography, etc.

Ultimately these sorts of decisions on sharia are going to be up to whatever premier they choose. There is no actual spelled out sharia law in the Koran. It is very open to interpretation. Different countries with Sharia law will treat women very differently from one another.
aggiehawg
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Meanwhile, in Kabul. Warning: graphic.

Ag In Ok
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Not share power - Tajiks take the land in their tribal region. It would be a huge boost to Tajikistan. They just need casus belli. And maybe a little Russian support.
Ag In Ok
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It's all we have - we don't have enough to flex control over the airport. Short handed.
Not a Bot
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Frankly, that's fine with me. Just get our folks out. Don't have any of them left as hostages or bargaining chips. I don't think the Taliban can go that route either based on what they have been telling everyone publicly.

Unfortunately I think this means a lot of our Afghan people are not going to make it out unless we have made arrangements for them too. It's possible we have. But Taliban guy was pretty adamant about people staying in country. We will see. Hoping for the best. We were able to get 1200 people out in last 24 hours including several hundred Afghanis.
titan
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Captain Positivity said:

They already say they are offering more in terms of women's rights than what the prior version did. They've also clearly embraced technology, photography, etc.

Ultimately these sorts of decisions on sharia are going to be up to whatever premier they choose. There is no actual spelled out sharia law in the Koran. It is very open to interpretation. Different countries with Sharia law will treat women very differently from one another.
As other posters say, username checks out. I hope you are right, and it is just possible it is true. I have zero confidence in our govt and Left and press ever learning from history, but that doesn't mean the Taliban themselves did not. Who knows, perhaps, they at least will offer a less even "sub-Islam" version -- like you also note and are aware, the strict range of Sharia itself actually varies on the tribal mindset involved.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
OldArmyBrent
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Why is everyone in that video dressed up like it's cold? Didn't seem like cold weather from the other pictures and videos.
Not a Bot
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My primary fear at this point is that the Taliban don't have total control of their own people.
BAP Enthusiast
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OldArmyBrent said:

Why is everyone in that video dressed up like it's cold? Didn't seem like cold weather from the other pictures and videos.


Look at the account that posted it. It's pure propaganda.
Not a Bot
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Hoping some of these are old videos and not really from today. Obviously don't speak whatever language he speaking. Also noted that person who posted it appears to be hardcore Israeli.
Not a Bot
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I hope that's true.
Not a Bot
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My user name checks out today. I have to make myself be positive. This is distressing. I've been awake for the better part of four days straight with maybe just a few hours of sleep. I've lost over 10 pounds.

I actually found a lot of hope in the press conference. I'm not saying I believe them long-term, but they are still in the very early stages of trying to win support from the people and international support. If they do not follow through with their promise of keeping foreign civilians safe and attack/prevent foreign citizens from moving out, very few will want to do business with them in the future. Their economy cannot survive without significant outside investment. They need good international relations right now.
TommyBrady
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They are executing people all over the country. Reality might be hard to deal with it but thats reality. They are already marrying off women and killing men. The Taliban is as hard line as ever they are just more savvy in front of cameras.

aggiehawg
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Our "leaders" have spoken.

Ag In Ok
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Yet again they answer the questions not asked.
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