The reason we should not be concerned about inflation

108,199 Views | 916 Replies | Last: 13 days ago by Helicopter Ben
TRADUCTOR
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ProgN saying "We gonna trap him"

Awesome lol.
Redstone
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AG
Another data point, one of a great many since the original post:

Mortgage rates are now over 6% on the average.
For the first time since 2008.
Last September, the number was 2.86%.
Redstone
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An analysis from the Joint Economic Committee Republicans estimates inflation is now costing households an extra $717 each month...
even higher in Colorado ($937), Utah ($910), and Arizona ($833)

On an annual basis, the committee estimates that households will have to fork out an extra $8,607.

Here is the state inflation tracker:
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2022/8/state-inflation-tracker-july-2022
Redstone
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AG
Red Pear Realty
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See my post at the top of the last page. Nailed it.

Redstone said:


Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Manhattan
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html

The American worker is holding up against JPow.
ABATTBQ87
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Manhattan said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html

The American worker is holding up against JPow.
Holiday hiring is increasing, as well as working 2 jobs to pay for the increase in groceries and other items
ProgN
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ABATTBQ87 said:

Manhattan said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html

The American worker is holding up against JPow.
Holiday hiring is increasing, as well as working 2 jobs to pay for the increase in groceries and other items
Don't frustrate yourself by trying to talk about economics with 2 teas.
CDUB98
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ProgN said:

ABATTBQ87 said:

Manhattan said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html

The American worker is holding up against JPow.
Holiday hiring is increasing, as well as working 2 jobs to pay for the increase in groceries and other items
Don't frustrate yourself by trying to talk about economics with 2 teas.


THIS

It's clearly obvious to the casual observer that referenced 2 teas has zero understanding of economics or how business works.
Manhattan
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2 jobs doesn't affect people apply for unemployment benefits…. But it is "uniquely American"
samurai_science
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Manhattan said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html

The American worker is holding up against JPow.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-economy-shrank-in-the-first-half-of-2022-new-gdp-figures-confirm-11664455599

U.S. economy shrank in the first half of 2022, updated GDP confirms
Manhattan
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See my post on interest rates.
samurai_science
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Manhattan said:

See my post on interest rates.
No, I already know you don't have an understanding of Economics.
samurai_science
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CDUB98 said:

ProgN said:

ABATTBQ87 said:

Manhattan said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html

The American worker is holding up against JPow.
Holiday hiring is increasing, as well as working 2 jobs to pay for the increase in groceries and other items
Don't frustrate yourself by trying to talk about economics with 2 teas.


THIS

It's clearly obvious to the casual observer that referenced 2 teas has zero understanding of economics or how business works.
Correct
Loren Visser
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Reading that OP never gets old.
If the pay's right, and it's legal, I'll do it...Well, if the pay's right, I'll do it.
Robert L. Peters
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Still waiting on some of those profits OP promised
ProgN
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PCE inflation August 2022: Inflation accelerated even more than expected in August (cnbc.com)
Quote:

Inflation in August was stronger than expected despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring down prices, according to data Friday that the central bank follows closely.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July. That was faster than the 0.5% Dow Jones estimate and another indication that inflation is broadening.

On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 4.9%, more than the 4.7% estimate and up from 4.7% the previous month.

Including gas and energy, headline PCE increased 0.3% in August, compared with a decline of 0.1% in July. It rose even with a sharp decline in gas prices that took the cost at the pump well below the nominal record above $5 a gallon earlier in the summer.

The Fed generally favors core PCE as the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for consumer behavior. In the case of either core or headline, the data Friday from the Commerce Department shows inflation running well above the central bank's 2% long-run target.


ProgN
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Consumer price index September 2022: (cnbc.com)
Quote:

Prices consumers pay for a wide variety of goods and services rose more than expected in September as inflation pressures continued to weigh on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index for the month increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a 12-month basis, so-called headline inflation was up 8.2%, off its peak around 9% in June but still hovering near the highest levels since the early 1980s.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI accelerated 0.6% against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% increase. Core inflation was up 6.6% from a year ago.

The report rattled financial markets, with stock market futures plunging and Treasury yields moving up.


"TRANSITORY"
Quote:

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

Owlagdad
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Futures this morning went from +300 to -300 after announcement. no evidence of inflation, right, OP?
riverrataggie
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AG
This thread is like inflation and this administration. You think it can't get worse, but yet always seem to find a way.
LMCane
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Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes


KEY POINTS
  • Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September and were up 8.2% from a year ago, according to BLS data released Thursday.
  • Excluding food and energy, the core consumer price index accelerated 0.6% and 6.6% respectively.
  • Worker wages took another hit, falling 0.1% monthly and 3% year over year when adjusted for inflation.
  • Markets now expect the Fed could institute consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hikes in November and December.
CDUB98
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Owlagdad said:

Futures this morning went from +300 to -300 after announcement. no evidence of inflation, right, OP?


Short timeline investors not smart enough to realize this is a long term inflationary problem, so they are now reacting to the "unexpected" inflation. That's mostly it.

Probably 90% of traders today have never been through something like this, and they have no clue how to play it. They don't understand a world where the Fed is not propping up their continual gains.

If you've been in an inverse ETF this year, you've had a lot of opportunities to make money. Sadly, I have been too stupid and busy to make the plays.
LMCane
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ac04
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Oldag2020 said:

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences.
i wonder if keynesians are starting to figure out how stupid this idea is yet.
txaggie_08
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AG
OP hasn't posted in 7 months. What sock is he currently using??
Red Pear Realty
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Two words: Wage Price Spiral.

Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Sims
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Red Pear Realty said:

Two words: Wage Price Spiral.

Potentially. A counterpoint would be the damage done by fed hiking into (probably) mid 2023 will destroy demand and company's desire to even retain the workers.

The employees have been empowered since 2020 but that will flip this year. No raise is better than no job.
Krombopulos Michael
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Serious question…..why are we still letting the Fed manage our economy?

They've been wrong over and over and over. Whether it was Bernanke's - Sub-prime is contained, or Yellen's " I Don't See a Financial Crisis Occurring 'In Our Lifetimes" or the Fed Presidents insider trading, or insert any unexpected print for employment/inflation

These people are supposed to be the best and brightest of the economic world. Sorry I just don't see it.

Time for a change imo
Sims
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MuchosPollos said:

Serious question…..why are we still letting the Fed manage our economy?

They've been wrong over and over and over. Whether it was Bernanke's - Sub-prime is contained, or Yellen's " I Don't See a Financial Crisis Occurring 'In Our Lifetimes" or the Fed Presidents insider trading, or insert any unexpected print for employment/inflation

These people are supposed to be the best and brightest of the economic world. Sorry I just don't see it.

Time for a change imo
What's the alternative? They don't do a great job but many of our ills are fiscal policy and not monetary policy. The Fed controls the latter but not the former. Fiscal policy, in my opinion, is our downfall.
lb3
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MuchosPollos said:

Serious question…..why are we still letting the Fed manage our economy?

They've been wrong over and over and over. Whether it was Bernanke's - Sub-prime is contained, or Yellen's " I Don't See a Financial Crisis Occurring 'In Our Lifetimes" or the Fed Presidents insider trading, or insert any unexpected print for employment/inflation

These people are supposed to be the best and brightest of the economic world. Sorry I just don't see it.

Time for a change imo
Change to what? Politicians? They would adjust rates to meet political needs and would be a complete disaster.

Set a fixed rate and force politicians to address inflation through fiscal policy? No thanks, politicians would increase taxes to soak up excess liquidity and still never cut spending.

I might be interested in an AI based system with no emotion, no confirmation bias, no political aspirations, etc…. Of course the leftists would still claim it was racist and screw that up too.
aTmAg
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lb3 said:

MuchosPollos said:

Serious question…..why are we still letting the Fed manage our economy?

They've been wrong over and over and over. Whether it was Bernanke's - Sub-prime is contained, or Yellen's " I Don't See a Financial Crisis Occurring 'In Our Lifetimes" or the Fed Presidents insider trading, or insert any unexpected print for employment/inflation

These people are supposed to be the best and brightest of the economic world. Sorry I just don't see it.

Time for a change imo
Change to what? Politicians? They would adjust rates to meet political needs and would be a complete disaster.

Set a fixed rate and force politicians to address inflation through fiscal policy? No thanks, politicians would increase taxes to soak up excess liquidity and still never cut spending.

I might be interested in an AI based system with no emotion, no confirmation bias, no political aspirations, etc…. Of course the leftists would still claim it was racist and screw that up too.
A real gold standard would be the obvious choice.
Ribeye-Rare
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txaggie_08 said:

OP hasn't posted in 7 months. What sock is he currently using??
You haven't heard? The Feds have him in the witness protection program with a new identity.

He's pushing a broom in a CVS just outside of Phoenix for his new gig.
Heineken-Ashi
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MuchosPollos said:

Serious question…..why are we still letting the Fed manage our economy?

They've been wrong over and over and over. Whether it was Bernanke's - Sub-prime is contained, or Yellen's " I Don't See a Financial Crisis Occurring 'In Our Lifetimes" or the Fed Presidents insider trading, or insert any unexpected print for employment/inflation

These people are supposed to be the best and brightest of the economic world. Sorry I just don't see it.

Time for a change imo
The Creature From Jekyll Island. Read it.

Once you realize that the US is run by a cartel created by the banks to protect and bail out the banks from THEIR OWN MISTAKES by transferring their debt to the middle class in the form of taxes and inflation, then you will understand. The government is happy to do their bidding as they enrich themselves in the process. And they continue to tell you it's for your own good. And you continue to buy it. Look at the post directly below yours for proof, then go look at every recession since the creation of the FED, what caused it, who was bailed out because of it, why they were bailed out, and who paid the price. Ask yourself, why has the organization created to prevent this instances never been able to predict them? Why do these instances seem to get worse after that organization intervenes? Why is the answer always something related to bailing someone out because "to do otherwise would be catastrophic"? One answer. The FED is doing exactly what they were created to do.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
VegasAg86
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Red Pear Realty said:

Two words: Wage Price Spiral.


It's that four-letter word, W A G E S
Redstone
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A few months ago:
Inflation Reduction Act

Confirmed, this morning:
Inflation surges and rises to a 40-year high
 
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