Inflation is beginning to slow - and will continue to slow over the next several months.

Lesson learned - An Increase in spending does not lead to an increase in long term inflation.

Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

There are many bright days ahead here in America. We should all be extremely bullish.

rose from March to June, then seemed to plateau in July. I'd like to see how August and September shape out before spiking football, but so far the handwringing over "hyperinflation" seems like hyperbole

Quote:

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The Earth's core is going to cool into solid rock eventually, nothing escapes the law of entropy. I think the estimate is about 90 billion years, but I imagine drilling a hole to it to generate steam power would radically accelerate that timeline.

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Uh... The Earth won't even be around in ~5 billion years when the sun expands to halfway between Earth and Mars.

Oldag2020 said:

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Inflation is beginning to slow - and will continue to slow over the next several months.

Lesson learned - An Increase in spending does not lead to an increase in long term inflation.

Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

There are many bright days ahead here in America. We should all be extremely bullish.

---

F&$% are you still this dense?

An increase in spending does not lead to an increase in the rate of change of inflation long term.

There is a big difference between the rate of change of inflation and absolute inflation. The former will go down, but the latter is here forever.

Go back and read your economics textbooks again sony-boy; and closely this time. You are confusing a couple similar metrics and making a fool out of yourself over and over again.

Earl_Rudder said:

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Quote:

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The Earth's core is going to cool into solid rock eventually, nothing escapes the law of entropy. I think the estimate is about 90 billion years, but I imagine drilling a hole to it to generate steam power would radically accelerate that timeline.

---

Uh... The Earth won't even be around in ~5 billion years when the sun expands to halfway between Earth and Mars.

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Wrong. The Earth will never be completely destroyed. God assures us of this in his Word. Heaven and Earth will be united at the conclusion of all eschatological events, and the Earth will be restored to is creative pinnacle, and inhabited by the saints in eternal communion.

What a dunce. If government spending is no problem at all why stop at 3.5 trillion? Let's give every American a billion dollar stimulus and implement a 900 trillion infrastructure package. That should send the economy to the moon!

Giving two tea theory a run for its money.

Oldag2020 said:

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Inflation is beginning to slow - and will continue to slow over the next several months.

Lesson learned - An Increase in spending does not lead to an increase in long term inflation.

Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

There are many bright days ahead here in America. We should all be extremely bullish.

---

How and when it is calculated will continue to change. Buy whatever story you want, but if i change the formula in excel it has no impact on reality.

Let's spend and borrow our way to a prosperous life!

OP watch this....




The DunningKruger effect is a hypothetical cognitive bias stating that people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability.

As described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the bias results from an internal illusion in people of low ability and from an external misperception in people of high ability; that is, "the mis-calibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the mis-calibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others". It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from people's inability to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their level of competence.

The effect, or Dunning and Kruger's original explanation for the effect, has been challenged by mathematical analyses and comparisons across cultures.

Oldag2020 said:

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This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.

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Ok, I get it now. This guy is a complete communist.

GDP growth only equals tax revenue growth when the government owns all of the means of production.

I think the 6 pages of this thread represent the biggest collection of incredibly stupid ideas/posts in the history of TexAgs.

Congrats!!! That is truly an accomplishment.

OP is why the stock market is so volatile. For every trader who knows what they are doing, there are several ignorant traders who have little to no understanding of economics.

Oldag2020 said:

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Helicopter Ben said:

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Look man, I like that you're discussing this topic. Not enough people care about these issues and I think this is the single biggest problem we are facing today. Of course, it's all caused by too much government. Giving government control of the money supply is what allowed it to metastasize to the destructive monster it currently is.

But the problem is that "what you know, just aint so."

I'm going to stop beating around the bush and state it plainly. Keynesian thinking is WRONG.

Please be honest here. Have you read ANY opposing viewpoints from Austrian or supply-side economists? People like Hayek, Mises, or Rothbard?

If you read a few books or essays from any of those guys and still think the same way, I'll have to believe you're trolling.

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I'm about half way through Mises book theory of money and credit. I have debated in the margin about 300+ statements that I completely disagree with.

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Mises is the father of economics. He did have some beliefs that turned out to be incomplete / wrong, but he was a lot more right than incorrect, and a visionary during his time.

The fact that you are in the process of reading Mises for the first time, and think you are smart enough in the field to "disagree" with some basic principles, [such as expanding the money supply has no real impact on wealth transfer] is laughable.

------------------------

"Shakespeare is terrible. [Stupid reasons 1, 2, and 3]"

"You're totally wrong, look at all the people in the industry that disagree with you"

"They don't know anything. His plays should be more like Hamilton. I've read halfway through Romeo and Juliet, and I found 300 places where I could make it better."

When the supply of dollars doubles in the next 5 years, where is all of the money going to go? What will it be spent on?

Quote:

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Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

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Your, uh, idea lumps all spending the same. Let's ignore your statement that government spending won't affect inflation. That's another topic. Let's specifically talk about this one piece of "evidence" you give to support your argument.

We have been paying individuals almost $60,000 PER PERSON to specifically NOT WORK. Don't work? Here is $60k. If someone works for less than $28.80/hr, they get a paycut. That raises wages pretty much across the board. That will directly cause inflation, and has caused an incredible amounts of inflation to date. The reason the MASSIVE inflation has happened is directly tied to this very specific payment.

The reason inflation has slowed is that capitalism required businesses to adjust and pay alot more for labor right away. if not, they go out of business. That's happened, pricing has been adjusted and thus, no more inflation. This incredibly horrible "infrastructure" bill WILL add to that.

While your premise "spending won't cause inflation" is incredibly stupid, your "evidence" that inflation is slowing down was at a level of incredibly stupid I just could NOT ignore it. This is straight out of the lib narrative the media is spouting in order to try to give some cover for our demented, old, socialist POTUS.

Not this MFing shlte again.

I was hoping that the rona had gotten the op.

OP has filed for Bankruptcy at least 3 times

He's that good with his money and finances.

Science Denier said:

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Quote:

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Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

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Your, uh, idea lumps all spending the same. Let's ignore your statement that government spending won't affect inflation. That's another topic. Let's specifically talk about this one piece of "evidence" you give to support your argument.

We have been paying individuals almost $60,000 PER PERSON to specifically NOT WORK. Don't work? Here is $60k. If someone works for less than $28.80/hr, they get a paycut. That raises wages pretty much across the board. That will directly cause inflation, and has caused an incredible amounts of inflation to date. The reason the MASSIVE inflation has happened is directly tied to this very specific payment.

The reason inflation has slowed is that capitalism required businesses to adjust and pay alot more for labor right away. if not, they go out of business. That's happened, pricing has been adjusted and thus, no more inflation. This incredibly horrible "infrastructure" bill WILL add to that.

While your premise "spending won't cause inflation" is incredibly stupid, your "evidence" that inflation is slowing down was at a level of incredibly stupid I just could NOT ignore it. This is straight out of the lib narrative the media is spouting in order to try to give some cover for our demented, old, socialist POTUS.

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The temporary increase to inflation was created by bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions. There was too much pent up demand and not enough supply to handle the temporary disequilibrium in the markets. It had nothing to do with people refusing to work.

Let me try to get my thoughts straight.

Infinite government spending using printed money, actually flipping switches inside computer chips because the process of printing money would be too slow, just creates a greater amount of money for the government than what they had just created out of a vacuum.

Since excessive government debt is a such a good thing, one would think that taxes become irrelevant because spending is so much greater than any possible revenue brought in by taxation.

Although taxes are no longer necessary "to pay the bills", taxes are still necessary because they mysteriously somehow can be used to control inflation, which already is irrelevant regardless of how irresponsible the government spends money.
The old ways of government are gone. Now our government can do whatever it wants without consequences.

Woody, please let me know when to wake up at the point that we find that vegetables are unhealthy but sugars and sweets and fatty meats are the most healthy things we can eat. And of course we are eagerly waiting for the introduction of the orgasmatron.

Oldag2020 said:

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Science Denier said:

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Quote:

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Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

---

Your, uh, idea lumps all spending the same. Let's ignore your statement that government spending won't affect inflation. That's another topic. Let's specifically talk about this one piece of "evidence" you give to support your argument.

We have been paying individuals almost $60,000 PER PERSON to specifically NOT WORK. Don't work? Here is $60k. If someone works for less than $28.80/hr, they get a paycut. That raises wages pretty much across the board. That will directly cause inflation, and has caused an incredible amounts of inflation to date. The reason the MASSIVE inflation has happened is directly tied to this very specific payment.

The reason inflation has slowed is that capitalism required businesses to adjust and pay alot more for labor right away. if not, they go out of business. That's happened, pricing has been adjusted and thus, no more inflation. This incredibly horrible "infrastructure" bill WILL add to that.

While your premise "spending won't cause inflation" is incredibly stupid, your "evidence" that inflation is slowing down was at a level of incredibly stupid I just could NOT ignore it. This is straight out of the lib narrative the media is spouting in order to try to give some cover for our demented, old, socialist POTUS.

---

The temporary increase to inflation was created by bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions. There was too much pent up demand and not enough supply to handle the temporary disequilibrium in the markets. It had nothing to do with people refusing to work.

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You live in a fantasy world. In the real world the supply chain interruptions continue and are expected into next year (according to my suppliers). The primary cause of supply chain interruptions is caused by a lack of truck drivers who decided that they could get paid the same, more, or even a little less by the government without risking their lives on the road, to stay home. Secondly a shortage of cargo containers in China, India, and SE Asia is slowing imports.

The current inflation has been artificially created. We likely have not begun to see the effects of excessive and irresponsible government spending. If China and Great Britain quit buying US bonds because irresponsible spending has destroyed the value of the dollar, we are in deep doo doo.

Inflation is going to increase a lot when the new Infrastructure Gas/Diesel tax hits....genius move

You could've save yourself the length of this post by just putting up a bumper sticker that says I know nothing about economics.

TheEternalPessimist said:

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Earl_Rudder said:

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Quote:

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The Earth's core is going to cool into solid rock eventually, nothing escapes the law of entropy. I think the estimate is about 90 billion years, but I imagine drilling a hole to it to generate steam power would radically accelerate that timeline.

---

Uh... The Earth won't even be around in ~5 billion years when the sun expands to halfway between Earth and Mars.

---

Wrong. The Earth will never be completely destroyed. God assures us of this in his Word. Heaven and Earth will be united at the conclusion of all eschatological events, and the Earth will be restored to is creative pinnacle, and inhabited by the saints in eternal communion.

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Username does not check out.

annie88 said:

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You could've save yourself the length of this post by just putting up a bumper sticker that says I know nothing about economics.

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Excellent summary.

Oldag2020 said:

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Science Denier said:

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Quote:

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Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.

---

Your, uh, idea lumps all spending the same. Let's ignore your statement that government spending won't affect inflation. That's another topic. Let's specifically talk about this one piece of "evidence" you give to support your argument.

We have been paying individuals almost $60,000 PER PERSON to specifically NOT WORK. Don't work? Here is $60k. If someone works for less than $28.80/hr, they get a paycut. That raises wages pretty much across the board. That will directly cause inflation, and has caused an incredible amounts of inflation to date. The reason the MASSIVE inflation has happened is directly tied to this very specific payment.

The reason inflation has slowed is that capitalism required businesses to adjust and pay alot more for labor right away. if not, they go out of business. That's happened, pricing has been adjusted and thus, no more inflation. This incredibly horrible "infrastructure" bill WILL add to that.

While your premise "spending won't cause inflation" is incredibly stupid, your "evidence" that inflation is slowing down was at a level of incredibly stupid I just could NOT ignore it. This is straight out of the lib narrative the media is spouting in order to try to give some cover for our demented, old, socialist POTUS.

---

The temporary increase to inflation was created by bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions. There was too much pent up demand and not enough supply to handle the temporary disequilibrium in the markets. It had nothing to do with people refusing to work.

---

OK, let's stay in fantasy land for a moment. Why, in your world, are there bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions? Are those not due to the labor shortage that was created by paying people to stay home? I mean, almost every business out there is crying about labor shortages.

I continue to be astonished by how much this kid thinks he know versus how much he actually does not.

I'm not sure it's really his fault though. Business schools have turned into Keynesian economist factories....which then morphed into Modern Monetary Theory.

They just ignore the mountain of world history where massive spending and debt have led to bad outcomes.

Oldag2020 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

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This reads like a perpetual motion machine.
Put a big fan in front of a windmill to blow on the blades to generate electricity that powers the fan. The fan blowing the windmill will never stop because the windmill keeps turning by the fan blowing on it. Easy.

Look, and endless supply of energy.

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That is precisely where we are. I don't believe I could have said it any better!

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Since perpetual motion machines are impossible, your post was sarcasm.

You fooled many of us. Good job.

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They are in fact, not impossible.

Imagine if you drilled to the earths core, shot water into that hole, and used the steam generated by the earth as a source of power. That is limitless power that theoretically can never run out. The power created by the steam could be used to perpetually power itself, making a perpetual power machine.

This in fact is currently being developed by a team of billionaire investors through one of their family offices.

I am not sarcastic. I fully believe my OP

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A team of billionaires would go broke trying to drill to the Earth's core.

That is, of course, highly appropriate, considering the premise of the government spending all that they wish.

Oldag2020 said:

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Fightin_Aggie said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

---

This reads like a perpetual motion machine.
Put a big fan in front of a windmill to blow on the blades to generate electricity that powers the fan. The fan blowing the windmill will never stop because the windmill keeps turning by the fan blowing on it. Easy.

Look, and endless supply of energy.

---

That is precisely where we are. I don't believe I could have said it any better!

---

Since perpetual motion machines are impossible, your post was sarcasm.

You fooled many of us. Good job.

---

They are in fact, not impossible.

Imagine if you drilled to the earths core, shot water into that hole, and used the steam generated by the earth as a source of power. That is limitless power that theoretically can never run out. The power created by the steam could be used to perpetually power itself, making a perpetual power machine.

This in fact is currently being developed by a team of billionaire investors through one of their family offices.

I am not sarcastic. I fully believe my OP

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But what happens if you are wrong?

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Wrong about what? The team of investors developing this technology? Or are you referring to my OP about reasons we shouldn't worry about inflation?

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I've got to see this "technology" that can build casings that can withstand molten rock and its constant movement.

Grapes said:

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Also the fastest way for the US to eliminate its debt is hyper inflation.

Problem solved, debt crisis averted. Also reparations crisis resolved. Inequality issue resolved. Income inequality issue reset.

Everyone back to zero!

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Repudiating the debt would be faster, but no less of a disaster.