I award you no points, OP, and may God have mercy on your soul

The long run eventually and inevitably becomes the present.

Helicopter Ben said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Gawd I hope he is in the Anthropology Dept because to think this came out of the Business ... or Economics Dept is downright frightening.

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I hate to break it to you, but this stuff is coming out of the econ departments now. I was lucky enough to have a professor who taught both schools of thought. Most professors nowadays teach almost exclusively Keynesian and MMT.

As I said in a previous post, my MIL is an economics professor and she teaches almost exactly what the OP is saying. I even tried to get her to read just one book by an Austrian economist and she wouldn't finish the first chapter. I guess it really is like religious fanaticism. As soon as she read something she didn't like, she was done. Never mind how logical or well reasoned his arguments were.

---

It is religious. If they follow their economic dogma it gives them license for the social and political policies they prefer. They are allowed to rationalize away the costs and unintended consequences simply by pretending they don't exist or claiming they are irrelevant. The theory they use is means to an end, and is very much an item of faith, which just enough partial or selective data that backs parts of it for them to rationalize the entirety of it is valid.

Oldag2020 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

---

This reads like a perpetual motion machine.
Put a big fan in front of a windmill to blow on the blades to generate electricity that powers the fan. The fan blowing the windmill will never stop because the windmill keeps turning by the fan blowing on it. Easy.

Look, and endless supply of energy.

---

That is precisely where we are. I don't believe I could have said it any better!

---

Since perpetual motion machines are impossible, your post was sarcasm.

You fooled many of us. Good job.

---

They are in fact, not impossible.

Imagine if you drilled to the earths core, shot water into that hole, and used the steam generated by the earth as a source of power. That is limitless power that theoretically can never run out. The power created by the steam could be used to perpetually power itself, making a perpetual power machine.

This in fact is currently being developed by a team of billionaire investors through one of their family offices.

I am not sarcastic. I fully believe my OP

---

I haven't read the rest of the thread but I really hope it's been made clear that you're trolling, because this is one of the dumbest things I've seen and I'm not even going to DuckDuckGo to see if the project is real.

This is as stupid as believing solar energy is unlimited. Even the Sun will burn out one day. Effectively unlimited? Sure.

But with this core of the Earth theory you would just cool the iron core and ruin our magnetic protection. If anyone is really attempting this they should be killed before they do irreversible damage and I'm not being sarcastic.

MuchosPollos said:

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Helicopter Ben said:

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Look man, I like that you're discussing this topic. Not enough people care about these issues and I think this is the single biggest problem we are facing today. Of course, it's all caused by too much government. Giving government PRIVATE CENTRAL BANKS control of the money supply is what allowed it to metastasize to the destructive monster it currently is.

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FIFY.....

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If you believe the federal reserve is independent of gov't, I've got a bridge to sell you. Janet Yellen is now the secretary of the treasury. I mean they're not even trying to hide it anymore. I forget exactly what he said, but Bernanke inadvertently admitted it in an interview a few years back while he was still chairman.

Maybe it is technically independent, but the gov't and fed are very much in bed together. If you haven't read The Creature from Jekyll Island about the origins of the Federal Reserve System, I highly recommend it. It's a long read, but shocking, to say the least.

Here's a shorter youtube summary by the author:

Oldag2020 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Onceaggie2.0 said:

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I hope OP is not in charge of anything important in their life

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He is the guy with the Capital One credit card being charged 30% for a maxed out card, brand new $50K car at 10% interest, trying to get a $400K mortgage at 5% interest while making $30K/yr and can't understand why he is broke.

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I'm not sure you comprehend the difference in government debt and individual debt.

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Individual debt is no problem at all! I just fire up my own portable printing press when I need another $100k or so...

Still waiting for the OP to tell us his major....

It's not independent at all.......it IS our government. Biden, Trump, Obama, Bush etc. have all been doing what they are told to do. Fed sets policy, Govt implements. Not the other way around.

Just wait and see what happens when they implement the US Digital Dollar with the Banking for All Act. It's already written, tested and ready to roll, just a matter of when they decide to flip the switch. I am guessing within the next 24 months.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3571/text

Win At Life said:

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You keeo saying inflation is transitory. If so, why does a 3B/2B house PERMANENTLY cost more than the $24 000 it did in the 70's. If inflation is only transitory, when will things ever return to what they cost in the 70's?

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Inflation is real. Current inflation levels are transitory.

Fore Left! said:

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"CPA material"? I AM a CPA and this is crap.

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Take a look at the 2020 - 2021 business section

Even from a Keynesian perspective, this is nonsense.

OP is basically saying that using the spending multiplier (1/MPS) will drive growth that makes inflation a non-issue.

However, he's forgetting the supply side of the equation. As aggregate demand grows beyond long-run equilibrium, we see inflation coupled with economic growth. But eventually wages are going to have to start increasing (we are seeing this now). This increase in wages and other factor costs will pull short-run aggregate supply back to the left, increasing the price level while decreasing output (increased unemployment).

Like Mouth said earlier, the long run eventually becomes the present.

Oldag2020 said:

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Fore Left! said:

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"CPA material"? I AM a CPA and this is crap.

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Take a look at the 2020 - 2021 business section

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Go get your shine box

Helicopter Ben said:

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Look man, I like that you're discussing this topic. Not enough people care about these issues and I think this is the single biggest problem we are facing today. Of course, it's all caused by too much government. Giving government control of the money supply is what allowed it to metastasize to the destructive monster it currently is.

But the problem is that "what you know, just aint so."

I'm going to stop beating around the bush and state it plainly. Keynesian thinking is WRONG.

Please be honest here. Have you read ANY opposing viewpoints from Austrian or supply-side economists? People like Hayek, Mises, or Rothbard?

If you read a few books or essays from any of those guys and still think the same way, I'll have to believe you're trolling.

---

I'm about half way through Mises book theory of money and credit. I have debated in the margin about 300+ statements that I completely disagree with.

Oldag2020 said:

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Win At Life said:

---

You keeo saying inflation is transitory. If so, why does a 3B/2B house PERMANENTLY cost more than the $24 000 it did in the 70's. If inflation is only transitory, when will things ever return to what they cost in the 70's?

---

Inflation is real. Current inflation levels are transitory.

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Until they aren't.

Lame troll attempt. But responding for the thousands of lurkers.

Oldag2020 said:

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Win At Life said:

---

You keeo saying inflation is transitory. If so, why does a 3B/2B house PERMANENTLY cost more than the $24 000 it did in the 70's. If inflation is only transitory, when will things ever return to what they cost in the 70's?

---

Inflation is real. Current inflation levels are transitory.

---

Yeah, well the +10% inflation levels of the 70's were transitory in that they came down a decade later. But by then everything cost twice as much. All economic numbers are trasitory. What's the point? The long term trend has been to devalue the currency through either higher inflation, or lower inflation by increasing the quantity of the money supply. So how does current increasing the money supply NOT lead to devaluating the currency through inflation?

Win At Life said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

Win At Life said:

---

You keeo saying inflation is transitory. If so, why does a 3B/2B house PERMANENTLY cost more than the $24 000 it did in the 70's. If inflation is only transitory, when will things ever return to what they cost in the 70's?

---

Inflation is real. Current inflation levels are transitory.

---

Yeah, well the +10% inflation levels of the 70's were transitory in that they came down a decade later. But by then everything cost twice as much. All economic numbers are trasitory. What's the point? The long term trend has been to devalue the currency through either higher inflation, or lower inflation by increasing the quantity of the money supply. So how does current increasing the money supply NOT lead to devaluating the currency through inflation?

---

The economic backdrop of the 1970s inflation and the transitory inflation we are experiencing now is vastly different. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

Oldag2020 said:

---

Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

---

The problem with inflation is prices dont magically go down.

Fore Left! said:

---

Still waiting for the OP to tell us his major....

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

They are in fact, not impossible.

Imagine if you drilled to the earths core, shot water into that hole, and used the steam generated by the earth as a source of power. That is limitless power that theoretically can never run out. The power created by the steam could be used to perpetually power itself, making a perpetual power machine.

This in fact is currently being developed by a team of billionaire investors through one of their family offices.

I am not sarcastic. I fully believe my OP

---

Sounds like a great way to weaken the magnetic field and get our atmosphere destroyed by solar winds. Good thing we are studying Mars' atmosphere, because we would become a hotter version of Mars

Oldag2020 said:

---

BuddysBud said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

BuddysBud said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

---

This reads like a perpetual motion machine.
Put a big fan in front of a windmill to blow on the blades to generate electricity that powers the fan. The fan blowing the windmill will never stop because the windmill keeps turning by the fan blowing on it. Easy.

Look, and endless supply of energy.

---

That is precisely where we are. I don't believe I could have said it any better!

---

Since perpetual motion machines are impossible, your post was sarcasm.

You fooled many of us. Good job.

---

They are in fact, not impossible.

Imagine if you drilled to the earths core, shot water into that hole, and used the steam generated by the earth as a source of power. That is limitless power that theoretically can never run out. The power created by the steam could be used to perpetually power itself, making a perpetual power machine.

This in fact is currently being developed by a team of billionaire investors through one of their family offices.

I am not sarcastic. I fully believe my OP

---

What mechanism do you use to keep the core hot after you have released the pressure and start cooling it with the water?

aTmAg said:

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Remember, keynesians have no clue what they are talking about.

This thread is a good example.

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So true spread the word !!!

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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OP sounds like the product of an undergrad lib arts Econ major.

Worthless degree.

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I was thinking Art History

I don't think that's an option at A & M but I could be wrong.lots of changes of late that I may not be up to speed on.

OP , you do you. As far as me I am concerned about inflation. Transitory may be true but how long the transition is is being extended by crap policy.

Oldag2020 said:

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Win At Life said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

Win At Life said:

---

You keeo saying inflation is transitory. If so, why does a 3B/2B house PERMANENTLY cost more than the $24 000 it did in the 70's. If inflation is only transitory, when will things ever return to what they cost in the 70's?

---

Inflation is real. Current inflation levels are transitory.

---

Yeah, well the +10% inflation levels of the 70's were transitory in that they came down a decade later. But by then everything cost twice as much. All economic numbers are trasitory. What's the point? The long term trend has been to devalue the currency through either higher inflation, or lower inflation by increasing the quantity of the money supply. So how does current increasing the money supply NOT lead to devaluating the currency through inflation?

---

The economic backdrop of the 1970s inflation and the transitory inflation we are experiencing now is vastly different. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

---

Only one thing really defeats inflation and that is an increase in the supply of goods and services. The problem is that many goods do not have elasticity of production: water, good soil availability, labor supply and transportation network all figure in to the supply chain of food products from field to market. In case you hadn't noticed, the western US, including parts of the Midwest, are being hit with drought, reducing available land for production of vegetables, grain and livestock . That's one factor.
The second factor is the transportation network, which will be hit with higher fuel prices for diesel and gasoline thanks to some stupid and ideological moves on the part of the Biden administration.
That's just the agriculture/food supply sector. I am certain people here who work in oil and gas and the energy production can probably give you a much more nuanced and informed view about how higher energy prices affect the economy from their perspectives.

UTExan said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

Win At Life said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

Win At Life said:

---

You keeo saying inflation is transitory. If so, why does a 3B/2B house PERMANENTLY cost more than the $24 000 it did in the 70's. If inflation is only transitory, when will things ever return to what they cost in the 70's?

---

Inflation is real. Current inflation levels are transitory.

---

Yeah, well the +10% inflation levels of the 70's were transitory in that they came down a decade later. But by then everything cost twice as much. All economic numbers are trasitory. What's the point? The long term trend has been to devalue the currency through either higher inflation, or lower inflation by increasing the quantity of the money supply. So how does current increasing the money supply NOT lead to devaluating the currency through inflation?

---

The economic backdrop of the 1970s inflation and the transitory inflation we are experiencing now is vastly different. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

---

Only one thing really defeats inflation and that is an increase in the supply of goods and services. The problem is that many goods do not have elasticity of production: water, good soil availability, labor supply and transportation network all figure in to the supply chain of food products from field to market. In case you hadn't noticed, the western US, including parts of the Midwest, are being hit with drought, reducing available land for production of vegetables, grain and livestock . That's one factor.
The second factor is the transportation network, which will be hit with higher fuel prices for diesel and gasoline thanks to some stupid and ideological moves on the part of the Biden administration.
That's just the agriculture/food supply sector. I am certain people here who work in oil and gas and the energy production can probably give you a much more nuanced and informed view about how higher energy prices affect the economy from their perspectives.

---

Higher energy prices are, in fact, better for the overall economy. Yes, maybe hurts direct consumers and certain corporations directly affected by oil and gas.as a whole, higher oil is a net positive to the US economy.

Fore Left! said:

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Still waiting for the OP to tell us his major....

---

Finance class of 2020. I did not learn Keynesian style only at TAMU. I learned both views. There was a very balanced view by a majority of my professors.

Oldag2020 said:

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Fore Left! said:

---

Still waiting for the OP to tell us his major....

---

Finance class of 2020. I did not learn Keynesian style only at TAMU. I learned both views. There was a very balanced view by a majority of my professors.

---

That's interesting.. you don't espouse any combination of both views. You are fanatically supporting only one.

Even Milton Friedman, who was one of the biggest supporters of leaving the gold standard and the creation of FIAT, eventually came to the conclusion that he was likely wrong because governments can't be trusted to honestly manage the money supply.

And your #1 belief is that the FED is honest, all knowing, and well intentioned, despite history and current events proving its is none of those things.

mazag08 said:

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Oldag2020 said:

---

Fore Left! said:

---

Still waiting for the OP to tell us his major....

---

Finance class of 2020. I did not learn Keynesian style only at TAMU. I learned both views. There was a very balanced view by a majority of my professors.

---

That's interesting.. you don't espouse any combination of both views. You are fanatically supporting only one.

Even Milton Friedman, who was one of the biggest supporters of leaving the gold standard and the creation of FIAT, eventually came to the conclusion that he was likely wrong because governments can't be trusted to honestly manage the money supply.

And your #1 belief is that the FED is honest, all knowing, and well intentioned, despite history and current events proving its is none of those things.

---

I looked around, used deductive reasoning, researched the topic, listened to my employer(bulge bracket asset management in NYC) and came to my conclusion.

Also, I really hope you don't honestly believe we should have remained on the gold standard

Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

---

Can some one please tell me where these corrected lumber prices and steel prices are available. I would like to give the info to my subs that have not been honoring their quotes for the last year due to price increases they are still receiving.

Q-Tip 94 said:

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Oldag2020 said:

---

Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

---

Can some one please tell me where these corrected lumber prices and steel prices are available. I would like to give the info to my subs that have not been honoring their quotes for the last year due to price increases they are still receiving.

---

Lumber futures.