Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
