The problem is you can actually check the current vote by mail distributions in Philly and AlleghenySpreadsheetAg said:So let me do this:CrazyRichAggie said:
Right, however they are saying Biden has been getting 70-75% of the mail in votes, in red and blue counties.
105,000 Votes from Philly at 80% Biden
40,000 Votes from Allegheny at 80% Biden
40,000 Votes from Philly Burbs at 80% Biden
185,000 Votes with 80% Biden = 148,000 Biden ,37,000 Trump = +111,000 Biden Votes
BUT>>>
That leave 369,000 - 185,000 = 184,000 Votes in the other counties
If Trump gets those at 50% (VERY RED counties) = 92,000 Biden , 92,000 Trump = 0 Biden Votes
Net = 111,000 Biden Votes...
He needs 111,369 bringing him JUST SHORT, Trump Wins
Philadelphia current split of VBM: Biden 245,425/Trump: 17,073. a split of 93.5%/6.5%.
Philadelphia County - VBM
With 91K votes left in Philadelphia, that is a 79K Biden pickup there alone.