Roster4Ag said:

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Feelsbad

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Looks like I just moved to the right state to find a good woman. Unfortunately, though, women in Idaho all seem to marry by the time they're 20. All that's left are divorcees with kids, so looks like I'm sol...

DTP02 said:

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SpreadsheetAg said:

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beerad12man said:

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astros4545 said:

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Somebody run the numbers.

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Sigh....

To me it looks like NOT ENOUGH for Biden...

Taking the most conservative approach:

A Secretary of State on remaining ballots:
- 100,000+ in Philadelphia I'll make it 199,999 since these guys are playing with numbers
- 37,000+ votes in Allegheny 37,999 to be sure
- 20,000-40,000 votes in Philadelphia suburbs 40,000 to be sure

...

Philly 80% currently Biden
Allegheny 59% currently Biden
Philly Burbs 63% currently Biden (worst county in that area)

I will add 5% to current percentage tracking and round up to each of these:
Philly 85%B Conservative Estimated %
Allegheny 65%B Conservative Estimated %
Philly Burbs 70%B Conservative Estimated %

All other counties: 550,000 - 277,998 Blue Counties above = 272,002 "red" counties left

If Trump gets 55% of the "red" counties (easily, very likely) and I use all the verbal wizardry worst case scenarios from above... Biden could pull it off...

If the numbers are any worse for Biden than 278,000 Blue County Votes and less than 85%, 65% or 70% respectively in Philly, Allegheny, or Philly burbs, OR Trump does better than 55% in the red counties, TRUMP WINS

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You don't seem to be allowing for the fact that these ballots appear to all, or almost all, be mail-in ballots, which broke more heavily for Biden.

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We know vote by mail was Dems by about 2-1 in PA. The last I checked, Biden needed 1.89-1 of the remaining ballots to tie. What counties these ballots are from will make a huge difference.

I'm not sure the ballots in the rural counties are all VBM necessarily and even if they are they will break more to Trump than Philly or Pittsburgh. Data analytics had the split as 66-30 Biden for the mail in ballots prior to the election. With them breaking at 80% and higher in the urban areas it stands to reason in the rural areas they would have to break way more to Trump to bring overall PA numbers in line. Data analytics was off in this election around the country but not THAT far off.

There's a reason those rural counties sat on results. They know what Philadelphia is capable of. After all they share a state with it.

Those are all mail-ins (even in red counties). He is losing those too. Just at a little lower clip.

Has anyone stated that definitively? Do we have a source?

aginresearch said:

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Has anyone stated that definitively? Do we have a source?

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You're right. I'm assuming that. If that's not true then it's a different ball game.

PA is still accepting mailed in ballots through 11/6, so that's not the total (unless it's the total as of election day, and they aren't currently including the 11/4-11/6 mailed in ballots).

11/6 is also Kentucky and Kansas' deadlines for mail in ballots.

11/9 is Iowa, North Dakota, and West Virginia's deadline.

11/10 for Mississippi and Nevada.

11/12 for North Carolina.

11/13 for Alaska.

11/17 for Utah.

11/20 for California.

11/23 for Washington.

(there are other states listed in the linked article I didn't bother to include - this was just for illustrative purposes)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/30/fact-check-some-mail-ballots-arriving-post-election-day-count/6075311002/

CrazyRichAggie said:

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Right, however they are saying Biden has been getting 70-75% of the mail in votes, in red and blue counties.

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So let me do this:

105,000 Votes from Philly at 80% Biden
40,000 Votes from Allegheny at 80% Biden
40,000 Votes from Philly Burbs at 80% Biden
185,000 Votes with 80% Biden = 148,000 Biden ,37,000 Trump = +111,000 Biden Votes

BUT>>>

That leave 369,000 - 185,000 = 184,000 Votes in the other counties
If Trump gets those at 50% (VERY RED counties) = 92,000 Biden , 92,000 Trump = 0 Biden Votes

Net = 111,000 Biden Votes...

He needs 111,369 bringing him JUST SHORT, Trump Wins

Social conservatism...isn't it beautiful to see.

Roster4Ag said:

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Feelsbad

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I'd like to see the comparison married women vs single women.
Married men vs single men.

FriscoKid said:

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aginresearch said:

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Has anyone stated that definitively? Do we have a source?

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You're right. I'm assuming that. If that's not true then it's a different ball game.

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Yep, my understanding is that as soon as Philly said they were pausing counting on Tuesday night, all the western counties did the same...

So it's reasonable to assume that we're NOT talking just mail-in ballots.

I have a question. What are the odds that countless ballots were sent to the post office on Election Day in Pennsylvania? Do you really think that many Biden supporters would wait until the last minute to submit a ballot in the "most important election of our lives"?

Roster4Ag said:

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Social conservatism...isn't it beautiful to see.

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Leaves a guy with 18-20 year olds or inheriting grown kids. Which is better...?

ValleyRatAg said:

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Roster4Ag said:

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Feelsbad

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I'd like to see the comparison married women vs single women.
Married men vs single men.

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Probably about the same for women. They're just too incapable of reacting based on anything but "muh feelz".

Giving the kids a father?

Faustus said:

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PA is still accepting mailed in ballots through 11/6, so that's not the total (unless it's the total as of election day, and they aren't currently including the 11/4-11/6 mailed in ballots).

11/6 is also Kentucky and Kansas' deadlines for mail in ballots.

11/9 is Iowa, North Dakota, and West Virginia's deadline.

11/10 for Mississippi and Nevada.

11/12 for North Carolina.

11/13 for Alaska.

11/17 for Utah.

11/20 for California.

11/23 for Washington.

(there are other states listed in the linked article I didn't bother to include - this was just for illustrative purposes)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/30/fact-check-some-mail-ballots-arriving-post-election-day-count/6075311002/

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Aren't the ballots which were received after Election Day SUPPOSED to be segregated and not counted yet per court order?

That's probably the one legal fight the Trump campaign would have a good chance of winning IMO, if it came down to that.

Quote:

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Aren't the ballots which were received after Election Day SUPPOSED to be segregated and not counted yet per court order?

That's probably the one legal fight the Trump campaign would have a good chance of winning IMO, if it came down to that.

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Yes, and Philly didn't do it and mixed them all together.

ValleyRatAg said:

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Roster4Ag said:

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Feelsbad

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I'd like to see the comparison married women vs single women.
Married men vs single men.

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Exit polling, not necessarily reliable, shows Trump doing well with married women and much less well with single women, and that the biggest ground he lost vs 2016 was with white men. IDK about single vs married men, but I would assume similar track to the women.

lil99chris said:

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I have a question. What are the odds that countless ballots were sent to the post office on Election Day in Pennsylvania? Do you really think that many Biden supporters would wait until the last minute to submit a ballot in the "most important election of our lives"?

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What if they sent it 2-3 days or more before and it took until 11/4-11/6 to get there?

I doubt any ballot post-marked on 11/3 even makes it by 11/6. Other states doubted it too, as you can see by the deadlines set out much further for those states in my post supra.

You and me both know the answer to that.

Married Men: Probably 40-45 red states

Single Men: Probably 25-35 red states

Married Women: Probably 15-20 red states

Single Women: Probably no red states

Rapier108 said:

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Quote:

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Aren't the ballots which were received after Election Day SUPPOSED to be segregated and not counted yet per court order?

That's probably the one legal fight the Trump campaign would have a good chance of winning IMO, if it came down to that.

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Yes, and Philly didn't do it and mixed them all together.

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Hence the blocking of the Trump observers. Once they are out of the envelope, then no way to know when received or postmarked.

Regardless of above, I think they are being included in count but ballots segregated so they can subsequently be removed from count based on court decision. But I did not research this again, just from memory of last few days.

We were told there was an emphasis by the USPS to prioritize mail in ballots. They would be distributed and legibly labeled.

DTP02 said:

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Faustus said:

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PA is still accepting mailed in ballots through 11/6, so that's not the total (unless it's the total as of election day, and they aren't currently including the 11/4-11/6 mailed in ballots).

11/6 is also Kentucky and Kansas' deadlines for mail in ballots.

11/9 is Iowa, North Dakota, and West Virginia's deadline.

11/10 for Mississippi and Nevada.

11/12 for North Carolina.

11/13 for Alaska.

11/17 for Utah.

11/20 for California.

11/23 for Washington.

(there are other states listed in the linked article I didn't bother to include - this was just for illustrative purposes)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/30/fact-check-some-mail-ballots-arriving-post-election-day-count/6075311002/

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Aren't the ballots which were received after Election Day SUPPOSED to be segregated and not counted yet per court order?

That's probably the one legal fight the Trump campaign would have a good chance of winning IMO, if it came down to that.

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They said they segregated them. If POTUS prevails on that challenge it won't be because ballots were received after 11/3 per se. Lots of states set out mail in ballot deadlines after 11/3. It will be because a PA state Court created that cushion, not the state legislature, and the Constitution says that the state legislature is the one that sets the rules. It's an argument that could find resonance with an originalist court. Set against that is the fact that the S.C punted on it 4-4 a few weeks before the election, and PA voters relied on that ruling and the current rules going into the election.

An easier argument falls on the provisional votes. These are the ones received 11/4-11/6 that have no post-mark or an illegible one. I think those should be culled as there's no proof they were made by 11/3.

I'm not sure whether the segregated votes are being counted and included in the total now or not. It would be better for conservatives if they were, because then if they're tossed POTUS wins going away. If they're not being included then if Biden prevails on the current numbers it's over.

Also PA said they were segregating the ballots, so the S.C. denied the emergency aspect of the challenge as moot (so I don't believe there was an order there directing PA to segregate, they took the state at its word). There are two challenges pending now regarding PA at the S.C., but I don't recall the difference between the two. Getting Barrett on the bench before the election can't hurt POTUS, but I imagine Roberts is going to be lobbying hard to avoid the appearance of deciding the election.

Here is an article about the North Carolina challenge (which made a similar argument about state legislature prerogative in setting the election rules) and one of the PA challenges.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-north-carolina-absentee-ballots.html

Interesting times.

Eliminatus said:

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Pretty sure we are going to see some media outlets call a victory tonight.

Much more turmoil ahead. This may get worse somehow.

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Agreed!

I'm pretty sure they'll call it for the Dems, and seriously turn up the heat on the WH, and all Republicans. We're getting ready to find out if Trump has the chutzpah to get nasty, because that's what's coming. If not tonight, then tomorrow for sure.

For the Dems, nasty is like Tuesday. We couldn't do that for media reasons. Every outlet in the world would crucify the Rupublicans. This will terrify the RINO's. They'll go drink with Biden in his basement.

Women marrying young is right and proper. Beware the 30-year old woman who's hit the wall and has kids she doesn't give a **** about after years of taking [rooster].

Quote:

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the only problems with Trump's suit that was thrown out in Michigan, according to the judge, is that it was based on hearsay, brought the wrong party to court, couldn't give names of any of the people or locations they said broke the law and the relief sought is unavailable because the counting is over.

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PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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the only problems with Trump's suit that was thrown out in Michigan, according to the judge, is that it was based on hearsay, brought the wrong party to court, couldn't give names of any of the people or locations they said broke the law and the relief sought is unavailable because the counting is over.

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Go to the judges house. Force them to throw out the ballots.

Quote:

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John 3:20 For everyone who does wicked things hates the light and does not come to the light, lest his works should be exposed.

Ephesians 5:11 Take no part in the unfruitful works of darkness, but instead expose them.

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Faustus said:

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DTP02 said:

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Faustus said:

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PA is still accepting mailed in ballots through 11/6, so that's not the total (unless it's the total as of election day, and they aren't currently including the 11/4-11/6 mailed in ballots).

11/6 is also Kentucky and Kansas' deadlines for mail in ballots.

11/9 is Iowa, North Dakota, and West Virginia's deadline.

11/10 for Mississippi and Nevada.

11/12 for North Carolina.

11/13 for Alaska.

11/17 for Utah.

11/20 for California.

11/23 for Washington.

(there are other states listed in the linked article I didn't bother to include - this was just for illustrative purposes)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/30/fact-check-some-mail-ballots-arriving-post-election-day-count/6075311002/

---

Aren't the ballots which were received after Election Day SUPPOSED to be segregated and not counted yet per court order?

That's probably the one legal fight the Trump campaign would have a good chance of winning IMO, if it came down to that.

---

They said they segregated them. If POTUS prevails on that challenge it won't be because ballots were received after 11/3 per se. Lots of states set out mail in ballot deadlines after 11/3. It will be because a PA state Court created that cushion, not the state legislature, and the Constitution says that the state legislature is the one that sets the rules. It's an argument that could find resonance with an originalist court. Set against that is the fact that the S.C punted on it 4-4 a few weeks before the election, and PA voters relied on that ruling and the current rules going into the election.

An easier argument falls on the provisional votes. These are the ones received 11/4-11/6 that have no post-mark or an illegible one. I think those should be culled as there's no proof they were made by 11/3.

I'm not sure whether the segregated votes are being counted and included in the total now or not. It would be better for conservatives if they were, because then if they're tossed POTUS wins going away. If they're not being included then if Biden prevails on the current numbers it's over.

Also PA said they were segregating the ballots, so the S.C. denied the emergency aspect of the challenge as moot. There are two challenges pending now regarding PA at the S.C., but I don't recall the difference between the two. Getting Barrett on the bench before the election can't hurt POTUS, but I imagine Roberts is going to be lobbying hard to avoid the appearance of deciding the election.

Interesting times.

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I imagine Roberts is going to be walking funny from whoever coerced his change of heart of Obamacare reaching up his ass to use him as a hand puppet to say whatever they want him to say. Zero confidence that he will do anything courageous that might himder the dem agenda.

PA down to 102k

without reading through this whole thread- latest on AZ? Still looking like a possible flip?

GA 47K votes outstanding.

Just a complete sham of an election