chase128 said:

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Cool story bro.

In a contested state, I'd vote for Trump. In states that have a large favorite one way or another ( real favorite not polling favorite) I see no reason not to vote for the chance of eventually having another choice.

3,684,726 registered voters in wisconsin.

That's big because James is still clinging to a 20k vote lead with 96% in

MI is a lost cause. 6K votes when he is down 30K with bad votes (Detroit) still coming is useless.

I don't like Schweikart, but ...

BoerneAg11 said:

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MI is a lost cause. 6K votes when he is down 30K with bad votes (Detroit) still coming is useless.

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Here's the thing if those are wrong how many others are

BoerneAg11 said:

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Can our resident AZ sunshine pumper give us a specific path on AZ? something besides "AZ IS RED"

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Believe me - I wish I could predict the future.

However, my views are, and have been, simply consistent with the campaigns'. They believe they have the votes in Arizona. I agree.

Whether I'm proven correct or not, time will tell. But I'm optimistic.

So if Trump can take Arizona and loses MI what does he need to do?

FbgTxAg said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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Can our resident AZ sunshine pumper give us a specific path on AZ? something besides "AZ IS RED"

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Believe me - I wish I could predict the future.

However, my views are, and have been, simply consistent with the campaigns'. They believe they have the votes in Arizona. I agree.

Whether I'm proven correct or not, time will tell. But I'm optimistic.

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So this is less based on facts and more just a gut feeling?

Great.

CharlieBrown17 said:

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Cool story bro.

In a contested state, I'd vote for Trump. In states that have a large favorite one way or another ( real favorite not polling favorite) I see no reason not to vote for the chance of eventually having another choice.

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If you look at the maps, there are no "uncontested" states where there is enough slack to allow enough people to vote third party to accomplish anything meaningful regarding ballot status, debate participations, etc. The Libertarian Party has a great set of platform issues and I would gladly vote for them if it meant accomplishing anything. They need to spend their time and efforts on local and state races that are winnable to position the party as the "swing vote" between the D and R. Then when they develop name recognition and party identity, they can start trying for national level races with a chance for a meaningful victory.

Win PA, GA and NC.

BoerneAg11 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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Can our resident AZ sunshine pumper give us a specific path on AZ? something besides "AZ IS RED"

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Believe me - I wish I could predict the future.

However, my views are, and have been, simply consistent with the campaigns'. They believe they have the votes in Arizona. I agree.

Whether I'm proven correct or not, time will tell. But I'm optimistic.

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So this is less based on facts and more just a gut feeling?

Great.

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You must be new to this thread.

Tyrone_The_Tuna said:

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So if Trump can take Arizona and loses MI what does he need to do?

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He needs AZ,PA,GA,NC

Aggie_3 said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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MI is a lost cause. 6K votes when he is down 30K with bad votes (Detroit) still coming is useless.

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Here's the thing if those are wrong how many others are

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The likelihood of multiple counties making the same elementary mistake is incredibly small.

AustinAg008 said:

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Tyrone_The_Tuna said:

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So if Trump can take Arizona and loses MI what does he need to do?

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Win GA, NC and PA.

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If he keeps PA, NC, and GA, he needs any other state to win.

Tyrone_The_Tuna said:

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So if Trump can take Arizona and loses MI what does he need to do?

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If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska, he'll be at 258.

He then needs Nevada AND Wisconsin OR Pennsylvania.

BoerneAg11 said:

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Aggie_3 said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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MI is a lost cause. 6K votes when he is down 30K with bad votes (Detroit) still coming is useless.

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Here's the thing if those are wrong how many others are

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The likelihood of multiple counties making the same elementary mistake is incredibly small.

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If it was a "mistake", yes.

FbgTxAg said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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Can our resident AZ sunshine pumper give us a specific path on AZ? something besides "AZ IS RED"

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Believe me - I wish I could predict the future.

However, my views are, and have been, simply consistent with the campaigns'. They believe they have the votes in Arizona. I agree.

Whether I'm proven correct or not, time will tell. But I'm optimistic.

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AZ seems to be the ONE "what the ****?!?" state from last night... That is the state where I think the Trump campaign cannot connect the dots, and many other news agencies cannot either...

I think the battle comes down to AZ...

Not sure about the math, but...

There are libertarians down ballot in plenty of local elections. Imo there's not a way to broadcast the option of a third party without a national presidential nominee.

Gary in 16 and Jo in 20 obviously have the worst odds of any libertarian running but still provide exposure for the party and platform national.

CrazyRichAggie said:

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Tyrone_The_Tuna said:

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So if Trump can take Arizona and loses MI what does he need to do?

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He needs AZ,PA,GA,NC

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I'm allowing myself to get sucked back in... This is possible

Georgia will hopefully be called soon.

CharlieBrown17 said:

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Nope. Currently 3mm less gold votes than 2016.

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Then yeah, they may have split blue, which makes no sense. "We're fighting for individual liberty by voting for collectivism." Maybe Gary Johnson is just part for the course...

CrottyKid said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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Aggie_3 said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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MI is a lost cause. 6K votes when he is down 30K with bad votes (Detroit) still coming is useless.

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Here's the thing if those are wrong how many others are

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The likelihood of multiple counties making the same elementary mistake is incredibly small.

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If it was a "mistake", yes.

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But the claimed mistake in this county is that votes for Biden went to Trump and vice versa because of a tech error.

To believe that this is going to save Trump in MI you'd need to see multiple counties that are blue this time and weren't in 2016.

Other than Antrim county there are two counties blue in 2020 that were red in 2016.

Saginaw: biden only up like 300 votes.
Leelanau: Biden up 800 votes.

If all Trump leads hold right now and he flips Nevada (only 8,000 vote difference) Trump wins the election.

BillYeoman said:

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If all Trump leads hold right now and he flips Nevada (only 8,000 vote difference) Trump wins the election.

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But the votes left in NV are from Vegas (Biden lean) and mail in (Biden big). only path is either a miracle in AZ or lawsuit-a-palooza.

BillYeoman said:

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If all Trump leads hold right now and he flips Nevada (only 8,000 vote difference) Trump wins the election.

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I WANNA BELIEVE

BoerneAg11 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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Can our resident AZ sunshine pumper give us a specific path on AZ? something besides "AZ IS RED"

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Believe me - I wish I could predict the future.

However, my views are, and have been, simply consistent with the campaigns'. They believe they have the votes in Arizona. I agree.

Whether I'm proven correct or not, time will tell. But I'm optimistic.

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So this is less based on facts and more just a gut feeling?

Great.

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Lol. Did you think I was Nostradamus??

It's more than a gut feeling. But if you need a 100% prediction on how all this turns out, I really can't help you.

I think Arizona will (eventually) go for Trump.

aeroag14 said:

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BoerneAg11 said:

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Can our resident AZ sunshine pumper give us a specific path on AZ? something besides "AZ IS RED"

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86% of vote in. Trump needs 60% of the remaining vote to win. He has been averaging 60% in the in person vote.

Not going to say he is going to win. But it will end SUPER close.

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Yes, not sure how much vote is outstanding but assuming 86% exactly and holding Jorg constant...