Rapier108 said:

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gougler08 said:

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eb93 said:

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based on the data, minus dade county, R registered is up 157,000. So how many Rs defect is question one. There is more slippage of R voters from Trump than D voters from Biden all over the country. Second point is even if you just say 100% R goes Trump, and 100% goes D, you still have a huge advantage for Biden from Miami Dade not factored in. But even erase that, for NPA left, Biden only needs 53.2% to break even with Trump to overcome party registration disadvantage. Do you really think Biden will only win non-party affiliated by 6.4%? I guess we will find out soon enough!

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How do you know this?

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He doesn't. He's a Lincoln Project type "Republican" who hates Trump. He's been trolling this thread all day.

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I assumed as much...his data around Texas being close in this (or another thread) outed him as a troll immediately but I'd at least like to see how he's making his claims

Yes, I get all that. It's still a pretty funny thing for a guy who has been a professional vote guesser for a long time to throw up his hands and say "I dunno what that means" on the day of the election. Party affiliation and crossover vote is one of the most important and studied metrics there is.

I like Silver's book and I've recommended it before, but I think his bias is creeping into his work more every election cycle. Because of his influence, that means his bias is creeping into much of the polling industry.

L2 is non-partisan. Sells data to both sides.

Ulrich said:

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Yes, I get all that. It's still a pretty funny thing for a guy who has been a professional vote guesser for a long time to throw up his hands and say "I dunno what that means" on the day of the election. Party affiliation and crossover vote is one of the most important and studied metrics there is.

I like Silver's book and I've recommended it before, but I think his bias is creeping into his work more every election cycle. Because of his influence, that means his bias is creeping into much of the polling industry.

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Silver lost a lot of credibility with me by deciding to bag on Trafalgar, Rasmussen, RCP, and basically any poll that shows anything positive for Trump while having little to no criticism of some of the crazy Biden polls that said Biden up 17 in Wisconsin for instance. Personally, I think it is mostly about him hating being dunked on in '16 and then Trafalgar having a rough '18 but I don't know how anyone can look at this cycle and think that Trump being on the top of the ticket doesn't change the game significantly.

He also lost some cred by feeding into some of the claims that Biden can only lose if there is fraud nonsense.

It's too bad because I like hearing a Dem pollster perspective I just wish he would be more professional. He's the epitome of an ivory tower liberal snob though.

Ulrich said:

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Yes, I get all that. It's still a pretty funny thing for a guy who has been a professional vote guesser for a long time to throw up his hands and say "I dunno what that means" on the day of the election. Party affiliation and crossover vote is one of the most important and studied metrics there is.

I like Silver's book and I've recommended it before, but I think his bias is creeping into his work more every election cycle. Because of his influence, that means his bias is creeping into much of the polling industry.

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I like Silver too and agree his bias is causing him issues,

but I took his comment as a joke. Maybe it wasn't.

MAROON said:

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fooz said:

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Sir, this is Wendy's.

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looks likes someone got a bit confused with the mini condom they were handing out

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Funny.

will25u said:

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SLAM said:

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Low turnout in democrat areas in VA. State may go Trump!

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This seems to be a recurring theme that Dem strongholds are not turning out in numbers. May be due to the mail in voting in part but I've heard that the Dem turnout in places like Philly, Miami Dade, etc has just not been what's expected. Biden's campaign went all in on Covid and no ground game and it may prove to be a fatal strategy.

So the msm is all in on Biden and his 90% chance to win, but currently it sides doesn't seem that way. How in the hell can they be so wrong?

agsalaska said:

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Ulrich said:

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Yes, I get all that. It's still a pretty funny thing for a guy who has been a professional vote guesser for a long time to throw up his hands and say "I dunno what that means" on the day of the election. Party affiliation and crossover vote is one of the most important and studied metrics there is.

I like Silver's book and I've recommended it before, but I think his bias is creeping into his work more every election cycle. Because of his influence, that means his bias is creeping into much of the polling industry.

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I like Silver too and agree his bias is causing him issues,

but I took his comment as a joke. Maybe it wasn't.

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Today is the most important day for him since 2016 and until 2024. Not sure I'd be publicly cracking a lot of jokes in my official capacity.

These a-holes are scared sh*tless:

4stringAg said:

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SLAM said:

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Low turnout in democrat areas in VA. State may go Trump!

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This seems to be a recurring theme that Dem strongholds are not turning out in numbers. May be due to the mail in voting in part but I've heard that the Dem turnout in places like Philly, Miami Dade, etc has just not been what's expected. Biden's campaign went all in on Covid and no ground game and it may prove to be a fatal strategy.

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Not only that. But scaring your voters half to death to leave the house or gather in large numbers isn't going to help. Shutting down college campuses isn't going to help.

Jet Black said:

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So the msm is all in on Biden and his 90% chance to win, but currently it sides doesn't seem that way. How in the hell can they be so wrong?

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They weren't trying to be accurate

will25u said:

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So they can riot but they can't vote.

Seems reasonable. Definitely not dealing with children.

will25u said:

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Gonna be a long night for the Democrats. And the next four years will seem an eternity.

Jet Black said:

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So the msm is all in on Biden and his 90% chance to win, but currently it sides doesn't seem that way. How in the hell can they be so wrong?

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Because they are infotainment. They are not reputable press. They are nothing more than partisan hacks. They are members of the AFLCIO which donates 97% to the Democrats. This is public information, we have to get passed this idea that the media is some neutral 3rd party who is merely relaying what Kruschev said.

4stringAg said:

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SLAM said:

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Low turnout in democrat areas in VA. State may go Trump!

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This seems to be a recurring theme that Dem strongholds are not turning out in numbers. May be due to the mail in voting in part but I've heard that the Dem turnout in places like Philly, Miami Dade, etc has just not been what's expected. Biden's campaign went all in on Covid and no ground game and it may prove to be a fatal strategy.

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Scared of in person voting and no enthusiasm for their candidate. They hate Trump but at this point don't like Biden enough to vote for him

AggiePetro07 said:

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will25u said:

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So they can riot but they can't vote.

Seems reasonable. Definitely not dealing with children.

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Felons, pedos, and illegals cant vote

will25u said:

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"Indivisible" is a great name for an organization that seeks to sow division.

Jet Black said:

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So the msm is all in on Biden and his 90% chance to win, but currently it sides doesn't seem that way. How in the hell can they be so wrong?

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They're not wrong they're deliberately lying.

will25u said:

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Does "protest" mean riot?

4stringAg said:

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SLAM said:

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Low turnout in democrat areas in VA. State may go Trump!

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This seems to be a recurring theme that Dem strongholds are not turning out in numbers. May be due to the mail in voting in part but I've heard that the Dem turnout in places like Philly, Miami Dade, etc has just not been what's expected. Biden's campaign went all in on Covid and no ground game and it may prove to be a fatal strategy.

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I think a big factor being overlooked is college campus shutdowns, especially in swing states. In 2016 college kids went 65% Democrat and with the indoctrination that's occurred over the last 4 years that number has to be closer to 75% now. When you lose 1-1.5 million college voters that primarily would vote for Biden that will sting.

I also think the ridiculous landslide talk for Biden back-fired on them because Trump voters haven't listened to the MSM for the last 4 years so their suppression tactics were falling on deaf ears. However, the Dems DO listen to the MSM, it validates their confirmation bias and many who didn't VBM or IPEV probably decided they didn't need to vote today or got intimidated when they saw long lines (and certainly didn't want to wait in a line with Trump voters).

4stringAg said:

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This seems to be a recurring theme that Dem strongholds are not turning out in numbers. May be due to the mail in voting in part but I've heard that the Dem turnout in places like Philly, Miami Dade, etc has just not been what's expected. Biden's campaign went all in on Covid and no ground game and it may prove to be a fatal strategy.

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Honestly, this just sounds fake to me. Regardless of what happens, everything up to this point has suggested that we'll see massive, unprecedented participation in this election. Guess we'll see...

I am skeptical of either campaign saying they feel like they will win a state yet. Won't count my chickens until they hatch

The Debt said:

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Jet Black said:

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So the msm is all in on Biden and his 90% chance to win, but currently it sides doesn't seem that way. How in the hell can they be so wrong?

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Because they are infotainment. They are not reputable press.

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They are the new pro wrestling. They don't even believe what they say half the time. Cable is dying. Nuanced approaches don't gain viewers. Strong, opinionated takes do. So do riots.

Watching Fox News coverage right now and they showed a short clip of Biden campaigning in Pa. The dude's facemask has a strange upward tip that makes him look like a drunk triceratops and he can't stop fidgeting with it to be able to see the reporter. Pretty hilarious.

P.U.T.U said:

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I am skeptical of either campaign saying they feel like they will win a state yet. Won't count my chickens until they hatch

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I'm with you.

Jet Black said:

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So the msm is all in on Biden and his 90% chance to win, but currently it sides doesn't seem that way. How in the hell can they be so wrong?

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Bad polling wasn't polling...I've been trying to tell folks that for MONTHS...

Polling was a propaganda tool to try to drive down R enthusiasm at the polls on election day...

They tried to use polls to show Biden running away with the election to discourage high turnout by Rs...