Cactus Jack said:

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That's where the model messes up. The model is giving Trump Arizona, which he has already lost.

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That's not 538s. It's his own projections using a tool on their site.

It all depends on how they are calculating the outstanding vote. Is it 6% of precincts? 6% of expected votes? Every source you look at is describing it differently.

BigHead 04 said:

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Took me a minute on that one too. It's late.

But I think so. Biden gets 840k, trump gets 560k. Net 280k

For ****s and giggles if Biden gets 70% he nets 560k.

He would have to get 73% or more of those 1.4 mil to tie

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And that is just based on the current 650k lead and only the 1.4 million reported.

But like someone above said, some Trump leaning areas involved in that. So 75% or more would probably be required. I think that's a stretch myself

Aggies2009 said:

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TxAgPreacher said:

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astros4545 said:

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I'm calling Wisconsin

Biden needs like 78% of the reminaing 6% of the vote to catch up

94% reporting and a 110K vote lead

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If true

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Fix Arizona and make it blue.

And make Georgia "up in the air" like Michigan.

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C@LAg said:

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Aggies2009 said:

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Fix Arizona and make it blue.

And make Georgia "up in the air" like Michigan.

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I have been told, many times and most vociferously by a certain poster that Arizona is most definitely Red.

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Lmao

TxAgPreacher said:

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Aggies2009 said:

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TxAgPreacher said:

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astros4545 said:

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I'm calling Wisconsin

Biden needs like 78% of the reminaing 6% of the vote to catch up

94% reporting and a 110K vote lead

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If true

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Fix Arizona and make it blue.

And make Georgia "up in the air" like Michigan.

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More realistic.

Hemmer was also saying earlier that Biden wasn't at Hillary's pace in Wayne County (Detroit). So I think Michigan looks good for Trump too

The Debt said:

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but but but atlanta

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Hope they're right.

Edit. Blah, quoted myself. That's a pretty good sign it's time for bed. Night '16. It was fun and I'd put money on POTUS prevailing.

The Debt said:

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but but but atlanta

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Hope that's true.

TxAgPreacher said:

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Let's face it without fraud Trump has already won.

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The sad things is is the libs are likely thinking Biden would have already won if it wasn't for fraud as well cause of "but but but the polls!"

Let's go WI. Get this ****show over with

This is GA(I think its safe), and WI (if they call it soon). Conceding AZ (not yet)

CharlieBrown17 said:

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Let's go WI. Get this ****show over with

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I thought the milwaukee dump wasn't for another hr

TxAgPreacher said:

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This is GA(I think its safe), and WI (if they call it soon). Conceding AZ (not yet)

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I'm not sure Georgia is safe.

Got done with my run. I'm still up, I'm still drinking. I'M STILL WEARING THE LUCKY SOCKS I'VE BEEN WEARING ALL DAY. NOT TAKING THEM OFF.

redsquirrelAG said:

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Just remember Democrats. You voted for a man and family that hurts children. That is tied to the country that released a virus on the world and wants to raise taxes. You are a threat to this nation.

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wwg1wga

10s of thousands of Aggies are a threat to this nation (probably considered true based on party politics instead of the anon predilection for persecution for alleged pedophilia by anyone in the crosshairs).

Follow the white rabbit.

Yada, yada.

Damn, even my insomniac ass is going to have to call a lid for the night.

Noches friends, Hope to see WI blazing red when I wake up.

Quote:

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I'm not sure Georgia is safe.

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That's called fraud.

WI been at 94% according to AP for a while now.

51.1% - 47.4% in favor of Trump. 109,125 vote lead for Trump.

Verne Lundquist said:

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Is this math right?

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According to the Fox nerd, Biden has a 25 percent lead in ALL states EV ballots across the board -- Alabama/Arkansas or California/Mass. Thus, he'd likely get about 62.5 percent of these. However, that's aggregate. I think it is more important to look at locales and see how Biden is doing compared to how Hillary did (worse) and how Trump did against himself in 2016 (better), particularly in the midwest. At the very least, you should consider both factors.

Does that take it down to 60 percent? Probably at a minimum. Down to 55? Maybe. 50? That's pushing it. 55 may indeed be pushing it. But we don't know for sure. We also don't know if there are outstanding election day votes that are uncounted as well.

I thought people had said on here 3.

If it's 4, ya boy is out.

Hold onto your butts.

Cactus Jack said:

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Hold onto your butts.

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So what percent of those do we think go Biden? At 65% that would give him 110k votes and Trump 60k. Trump leads by 109k.

Milwaukee would have to go for Biden on the order of 150K - 30K to pass Trump in Wisconsin.

That's a big stretch.

flashplayer said:

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Milwaukee would have to go for Biden on the order of 150K - 30K to pass Trump in Wisconsin.

That's a big stretch.

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What did it look like in 2016?

I couldn't see any info on the Biden mail advantage in Wisc, but it is +33 in Michigan as a good proxy

So 184k mail in votes could yield Biden about 60k pickup

That doesn't seem like enough for Biden

By my estimate, Biden would need 82% of those absentee ballots to pull even with Trump