Nuke_Ag05 said:

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buzzardb267 said:

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I just saw a Biden ad where he is promising middle class tax cuts. Is that new? I don't watch a lot of his ads, but he has promised to reverse Trumps tax cuts and has been getting hammered about that.

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Yeah it's new and its full of ****, just like him and his "running mate". Remember when he called her his running mate?

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He might be the biggest liar to ever grace Washington, which pretty much makes him the grand champion of liars in the world's history of lying. I think his dementia may have actually been caused by lying so much throughout his entire life that his brain no longer recognizes reality

eb93 said:

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Exactly...he's basically saying he's guessing and doesn't know how indies will break...he's worried...

It would be nice if she did reap what she has sown.

RiskManager93 said:

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Did Nate Silver really just say this?

"The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for."

That's Ketch-level insight right there, I tell ya'.

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Yes, he's perplexed at how the polls are "this bad" once again, and now he's questioning his assumptions and hoping indies pull his predictions from the fire...

I don't think it's worry. It's that most pollsters are stuck right now with filling time for the next four hours and trying to stay relevant. They place a lot of importance on it because they don't want to look like idiots, for sure.

I'm not really paying attention until this evening. Lot of crap being pushed around on social media most of it for eyeballs or fake/disinfo.

FireAg said:

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RiskManager93 said:

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Did Nate Silver really just say this?

"The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for."

That's Ketch-level insight right there, I tell ya'.

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Yes, he's perplexed at how the polls are "this bad" once again, and now he's questioning his assumptions and hoping indies pull his predictions from the fire...

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Username checks out.

Cactus Jack said:

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" The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for. " - Nate Silver, expert on elections

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I'll help.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." Sherlock Holmes

Oogway said:

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I don't think it's worry. It's that most pollsters are stuck right now with filling time for the next four hours and trying to stay relevant. They place a lot of importance on it because they don't want to look like idiots, for sure.

I'm not really paying attention until this evening. Lot of crap being pushed around on social media most of it for eyeballs or fake/disinfo.

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Not paying attention... so I'll just weigh in on a political conversation to kill the time while I am not paying attention... nice try!

eb93 said:

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And you were in the biz?

Most people on the biz would say that if you told them turnout and party affiliation numbers for key counties they could predict the outcome of an election to a reasonable certainty. It's pretty scientific, much moreso than polling.

As for the independents in FL:
- people sympathetic to Biden most likely voted early
- Trump closed stronger leaning toward momentum with any undecided on ED
- Massive Trump rallies with lots of NPA attendees
- NPAs typically break incumbent late
- NPAs went Trump in 2016
- FL has been a freedom favoring state re COVID19
- lots of great indicators for Latinos swinging toward Trump and major inroads in the black vote

So lots of indicators that Trump should hold serve or improve w NPAs this year, but even if you give them to Biden 55-45 Trump still wins last model I saw.

You don't know until all the votes are counted, but anyone tracking this that really knows their stuff can see where this is very likely headed.

eb93 said:

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For not having much to tell without knowing who people are voting for...

This dewsh sure has a lot to say over the past 6 months. I mean, his entire website and existence in life is dedicated to him "telling" us what is going to happen before 1 vote was cast.

RiskManager93 said:

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Did Nate Silver really just say this?

"The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for."

That's Ketch-level insight right there, I tell ya'.

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Isn't the reason his malnourished-looking ass is on TV to figure out how they voted? What good is a polling 'expert' who can't guess how people voted?

Oogway said:

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I don't think it's worry. It's that most pollsters are stuck right now with filling time for the next four hours and trying to stay relevant. They place a lot of importance on it because they don't want to look like idiots, for sure.

I'm not really paying attention until this evening. Lot of crap being pushed around on social media most of it for eyeballs or fake/disinfo.

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And just as I did on Election Night in 2016 until about 3:00am CDT, I will watch a lot of CNBC, MSNBC, etc. to see their faces as, little by little - half hour by half hour, they realize it slipped away again.

And then start planning their subterfuge for 2024.

will25u said:

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To be fair, what's actually going on in that video is the guy is recommending everyone to wait or come back later. He confirmed with a deputy that someone was on the way to fix the machines. At the end, he said they had the option of voting and putting the ballots into the emergency slot where they would be scanned when the machines were back online. It did not sound like it was any sort of attempt at having people waste votes.

And these machines produce a QR code if I'm not mistaken and not written lists of who the vote is for. Someone going through the paper ballots would not be able to see or interpret who the vote is actually for. So there would be no use in tossing out paper ballots before they are slid through the machine if you are trying to stack the deck in favor of one candidate or the other.

It looks like these are very similar machines to the ones we are using in Texas, where you get a print out after you vote and you slide it through the scanner at the end.

SLAM said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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When the reading rainbow man blows you the **** out, that's when you know no one likes you.

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wiggythump said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Well look at that. The antichrist is quoting scripture.

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I thought the anti-christ was supposed to be popular? Everyone hates that *****...

fooz said:

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Sir, this is Wendy's.

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Yeah, id be pulling back the curtain. Are you cheating, or doing something that could spread the rona?

Cactus Jack said:

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will25u said:

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To be fair, what's actually going on in that video is the guy is recommending everyone to wait or come back later. He confirmed with a deputy that someone was on the way to fix the machines. At the end, he said they had the option of voting and putting the ballots into the emergency slot where they would be scanned when the machines were back online. It did not sound like it was any sort of attempt at having people waste votes.

It looks like these are very similar machines to the ones we are using in Texas, where you get a print out after you vote and you slide it through the scanner at the end.

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An issue like this was brought up when I voted early in Texas...polling station was at a park in Fort Bend County.

They made a big fuss about either shutting your phone off or putting it on airplane mode....reason being is that they were operating off of a hotspot and someone's Bluetooth on their phone could knock them off (apparently happened on another day). When that happened, they had to reset the registration system which took about half an hour.

Sometimes legit **** happens

Cliff notes on trends going on good or bad for either candidate?

Toptierag2018 said:

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Cliff notes on trends going on good or bad for either candidate?

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Florida looking really good for Trump.
Pennsylvania is a cluster **** of epic proportions.
That's pretty much the gist of this thread so far.