Texas now a Tossup?

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jrdaustin
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2:40p, 10/28/20
AG
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-non-partisan-political-handicapper-moves-texas-to-toss-up-in-white-house-race

This right here is what tells me that all the polling is a sham.

Interesting as well as I look at the bios of this "non-partisan" polling group, I see a political consultant for NBC News, a past political director for ABC News, a political analyst for NBC News, etc. Not the most apolitical lineup I've seen. The non-partisan tag comes from 83 year-old Bob Schieffer and the New York Times. Riiight.

Most interesting, however, is that there is absolutely no information on the Cook website regarding the methodology used for them to come to their conclusions. Near as I can tell, it is a bunch of MSM reporters writing stories based on data found in the MSM echo chamber.

Fox has lost its edge.
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Red Red Wine
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2:41p, 10/28/20
AG
So some are trying to claim that Texas is a "Toss-Up" State.

Well, I decided to go to RCP (real clear politics) and look at the recent polling.

On the Dallas poll (biden up +3) and the Houston poll (Trump up +5).

Let's look at some internals shall we:

1. Polls didn't consider 65% of the voters in 2016 were white (demo shows less than 50% white in Texas)
2. Dallas poll: 60% of those polled were white. So poll was close on this part of it - no change to Trump.
3. Houston poll: 58% white so adjusting to 65% gave Trump one more point to 51.3% up from 50%.

In both polls 63% of white voters favored Trump so that's how I got to the additional 1% for Trump on the UH poll.

The kicker on the two polls is this: Independents.

On the DMN poll: 25.6% were IND but breaking for Biden 51% to 29% (rest undecided)
On the Houston: 32% were IND but breaking for Trump 51% to 34%


Can't find party affiliation numbers for Texas, but nationwide is about 30% Independent. So DMN under-polled indies and UH slightly over-polled Indies.


But the bigger question is this: These are both Statewide polls. How do you get two completely separate groups of Independent voters on the phone!? Maybe by the area code you dial up with an expected outcome as a result?

So which way are Independents leaning?

29% in NY Times/Sienna about even 41% to 40% Tr over Bi.
27% in Quinn, but no breakdown that I saw on how Indies voted. (Cornyn up 6% in same poll so there's that).
30% in Rasmussen where Trump is +7 over Biden and interestingly enough he has Trump with 48% of the Hispanic vote. The UH/DMN polls above only had Trump at 38% and 21%, respectively.

So the DMN has some explaining to do on it's Independents number favoring Biden when all other polls DO NOT and the Hispanic Trump vote at 21% vs 38% and 48% in the UH and Rasmussen poll.

Hmmmmmm........

Me thinks Texas is NOT a battleground State in any way shape or form.

Trump 52%
Biden 43%

That's by bet.
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Ellis Wyatt
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2:41p, 10/28/20
It isn't.
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suburban cowboy
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2:41p, 10/28/20
AG
It's just part of the narrative of what the left and MSM wants you to believe
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ironmanag
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2:41p, 10/28/20
AG
I voted straight red but tell every text and phone call that I voted straight blue.

I am not the only one doing this.
Aggie Class of '97 and '16, Proud father of Aggie classes of '25 and '29
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Red Red Wine
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2:42p, 10/28/20
AG
PS. This assumes that VOTER FRAUD in San Antonio, Houston, Austin, and Dallas is STAMPED out enough for the "true" vote to be tallied accurately.
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deddog
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2:42p, 10/28/20
AG
If Texas is a toss up state, both Biden and Trump would be campaigning here.
Do you see them?

Exactly.

This is cover for the nefarious activities going on in Harris county
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titan
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2:43p, 10/28/20
S

No but Kamala is coming to Ft.Worth to give the ballot cheating some illusion of credibility.

If you saw enthusiasm for Biden like you see for Trump, could believe it. But you are not even seeing Beto level. And that was a campaign against an incumbent who barely ran, despite being top notch. (Cruz).

FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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Rapier108
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2:43p, 10/28/20
The Cook Report is "nonpartisan" in so much as that is what they declare themselves to be.

They are really no different than RCP. Garbage in and garbage out.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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2:44p, 10/28/20
Is winning a state by 8-10% or roughly a million votes close?

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JB99
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2:44p, 10/28/20
AG
Propaganda. These pollsters should start learning to code
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aggiehawg
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2:44p, 10/28/20
AG
Cook Political Report was non-partisan back in the day when both parties had a liberal, moderate and conservative faction within them. Hasn't really been non-partisan since the early 2000s.

And they have been all over the place during this cycle.
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AlexNguyen
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2:44p, 10/28/20
I think we are seeing that there is very little independent verification and corroboration within journalism especially when numbers come into the picture. All the outlets will tell the same stories with the same sources and then use each other evidence or support for their reporting.

You see it with the so-called infallible Nate Silver. He's a rockstar now and he will stay one until the circlejerk ends.
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titan
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2:44p, 10/28/20
S

Put another way -- would believe New York flipping on basis of sheer enthusiasm seen in those displays, than would Texas flipping to Biden. And both unlikely to the point of eyebrow raising. New York at least has provided motive from Marxist mayor in NYC and a shutdown crazed governor ----- Abbot hasn't done anything to make Biden look like a solution.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to titan • 2:45p, 10/28/20
AG
titan said:

No but Kamala is coming to Ft.Worth to give the ballot cheating some illusion of credibility.

If you saw enthusiasm for Biden like you see for Trump, could believe it. But you are not even seeing Beto level. And that was a Nationally Funded campaign in an off year against an incumbent who barely ran, despite being top notch. (Cruz).

FIFY
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Always_Right
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2:46p, 10/28/20
AG
Republicans have a 975k vote lead in early voting so far.
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beerad12man
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2:47p, 10/28/20
AG
Nah
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4stringAg
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2:49p, 10/28/20
AG
Part of me wonders if this is a concerted effort to knock Trump off his schedule and try to get him to waste time in Texas instead of in real battleground states.

I will say the recent Veritas video makes me nervous if that kind of open cheating is going on statewide.
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Burrus86
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2:49p, 10/28/20
AG
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Tom Doniphon
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2:49p, 10/28/20
I'll eat my hat if Biden wins Texas... not gonna happen.
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Iraq2xVeteran
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2:49p, 10/28/20
AG
There are transplants from California and New York, who will bring their voting habits with them. That is why Texas is trending from red to purple. I am a California transplant myself, but I have always voted Republican, including two weeks ago. A Democrat has not won a state-wide election since Ann Richards defeated Clayton Williams in the 1990 Texas gubernatorial election. Joe Biden will not win Texas' 38 electoral votes, and MJ Hegar won't win the US Senate race.
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TomFoolery
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2:50p, 10/28/20
AG
Calling Texas a toss up is a attempt to energize the Dems base to try and secure house seats and down ballot elections in particular districts... if Dems sit it out thinking their vote doesn't matter, republicans can pick up a lot more in Texas than just the electoral votes.

Look what Beto's campaign did to some of the Judge elections
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Martin Q. Blank
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2:50p, 10/28/20
2018 Senate race. Remember the Beto signs, the craze, the money pouring in from all over the country to support him?

Cruz basically did nothing.

Beto raised $80 million vs. Cruz at $45 million.

Cruz beat him 50.9% to 48.3%.

Now compare that to today. Are Democrats as enthusiastic about Biden as they were about Beto?
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AggieDub25
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2:50p, 10/28/20
As mentioned above, I was polled. Voted straight R. Told them I voted straight Dem. I consider it payback for what they have put us through these past 4 years. It will be fun watching the heads explode election night.

Edit to say, I think the polls help both sides when it comes to driving up the number of people voting. However, I think it helps the side that is being told it's losing much more.
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Rapier108
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In reply to TomFoolery • 2:51p, 10/28/20
TomFoolery said:
Calling Texas a toss up is a attempt to energize the Dems base to try and secure house seats and down ballot elections in particular districts... if Dems sit it out thinking their vote doesn't matter, republicans can pick up a lot more in Texas than just the electoral votes.

Look what Beto's campaign did to some of the Judge elections
Exactly
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Ginormus Ag
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2:54p, 10/28/20
AG
Trump beat Hilldawg by 9% in 2016 without people like me who voted 3rd party. With people like me who will vote for him this time, I bet Trump gets move votes in Texas this time. Anyone who believes Texas is a toss up this time has less sense than is what is in my 2 year olds diaper.
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Gigem314
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In reply to Ginormus Ag • 2:55p, 10/28/20
AG
Ginormus Ag said:
Trump beat Hilldawg by 9% in 2016 without people like me who voted 3rd party. With people like me who will vote for him this time, I bet Trump gets move votes in Texas this time. Anyone who believes Texas is a toss up this time has less sense than is what is in my 2 year olds diaper.
Same here. 3rd party in 2016 to Trump in 2020.
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No Bat Soup For You
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2:55p, 10/28/20
AG
If Biden is within 7 points in Texas then voter fraud needs to be investigated not just here but every state. That or just refuse to accept the results of the election.
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Tramp96
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2:55p, 10/28/20
If Texas goes blue, I'm moving to South Dakota. Been trying to learn the language:

Arighty then.
Oh you betcha.
Don't you know.
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Glenlivet
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2:58p, 10/28/20
AG
No
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ttu_85
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In reply to deddog • 2:58p, 10/28/20
deddog said:
If Texas is a toss up state, both Biden and Trump would be campaigning here.
Do you see them?

Exactly.

This is cover for the nefarious activities going on in Harris county
No apathy. Maybe that is the motivation. Its a good one. every texager get out and vote
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The TC Jester
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In reply to AggieDub25 • 2:58p, 10/28/20
AggieDub25 said:
As mentioned above, I was polled. Voted straight R. Told them I voted straight Dem. I consider it payback for what they have put us through these past 4 years. It will be fun watching the heads explode election night.

Edit to say, I think the polls help both sides when it comes to driving up the number of people voting. However, I think it helps the side that is being told it's losing much more.
I did the same with Beto and will always do that when polled.
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GCP12
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2:58p, 10/28/20
AG
Texas is a toss-up, but Obama and Biden are campaigning in Michigan the final weekend before the election
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Gigem314
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In reply to GCP12 • 2:59p, 10/28/20
AG
GCP12 said:
Texas is a toss-up, but Obama and Biden are campaigning in Michigan the final weekend before the election
And they're pulling resources from Florida to put in the midwest.
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American Hardwood
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In reply to TomFoolery • 3:01p, 10/28/20
AG
TomFoolery said:
Calling Texas a toss up is a attempt to energize the Dems base to try and secure house seats and down ballot elections in particular districts... if Dems sit it out thinking their vote doesn't matter, republicans can pick up a lot more in Texas than just the electoral votes.

Look what Beto's campaign did to some of the Judge elections
In retrospect, I'm thinking Raquel Rodriguez and her ilk may have had more to do with some of these elections than Beto's coattails.
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