Rather have a scrub that a RUD. They'll figure it out and we'll all be back here in a day or two.

Absolutely.

After hour stock price drop to 126.00 (131.11 at close)

Tailgate88 said:

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Rather have a scrub that a RUD. They'll figure it out and we'll all be back here in a day or two.

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Maybe. Full flow staged combustion is hard.

Booster triggered the abort so most likely that these 4 engines failed to light? https://t.co/jahIPnn4BW pic.twitter.com/uRYXtWNd9L

— Robin (@xdNiBoR) July 16, 2026

Roll back might entail engine swaps, FTS removal, need for more cryo/static fire tests etc. Not clear as to the 'deadline' for the 20 satellites loaded into upper stage. The 4 not lit might also be related to other issues (fuel flow/GSE etc.)

Hope I'm wrong, of course. The engineers probably have a real darn good idea already of what the issue was, so that's nice.

More than likely a de stack is incoming. They dont have enough access to the engines while the booster is on the pad.

First V3 full stack static fire complete…

— kate_tice (@kate_tice) July 16, 2026

PJYoung said:

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More than likely a de stack is incoming. They dont have enough access to the engines while the booster is on the pad.

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And they wouldn't crawl under there in any case with the FTS armed onboard.

To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed & replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026

whelp, that's no fun.

Last year Telegeography estimated Earth's "international internet bandwidth" at 1,835 Tbps

This is adding up all the fiber lines that cross borders/oceans

At 1 Tbps per V3 sat, and 60 sats per Starship launch

Starship would roughly double Earth's bandwidth every 30 launches https://t.co/MbCEOY7pvK

— Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) July 16, 2026

Earth is pushing vastly more than 1.8Pb

PJYoung said:

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To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed & replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026

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Static fire required or no?

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Static fire required or no?

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I'm gonna go with 'no.' They did a long static fire already, the issue with the 3-4 engines (generally on the interior rings) I think they can get fixed with the swap outs.

To launch 'early next week' means roll back, remove FTS, swap, putting the FTS back on, then roll to pad. In 3-4 days that wouldn't leave time for a static fire and a further roll back for FTS imho.

Aggie Bus Operator said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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Sitting on the jetty to hopefully catch my first launch.

Benefit of getting laid off i guess.

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Details on best place to park and set up been wanting to take my son to one!

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Never been to yesterday, but learned a lot.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/BWpzUrL5EYUGLUPx6
That pin is where we watched. Could have gone further east down the jetty, but dad's not getting around like he used to and the uneven ground was worrysome. Next time will probably try to move a bit further east using the sandy path just behind the rocks.

Launch window at 5:45... We got to the park later than I hoped due to Google losing it's mind and providing a scenic route outside Raymondville.

Arrived at 2:30 and the closest parking was
26.0728492, -97.1578157
So I would not want to get there any later.

There are public restrooms right behind the jetty along with beach showers here:
26.0691503, -97.1563650
There is a giant pavilion with picnic tables and even some concessions here:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/rhREHHZnoGmmND2e7?g_st=ac

Think next time we'll park, if can get early enough use the lot between the jetty and the pavilion, and put everything in a wagon/cart to the jetty to stake a spot, then go hang out in the shade of the pavilion and eat a picnic lunch there. I saw quite a few staked spots when we arrived that didn't have they're chair owners occupying until later. Are there chair thieves? Sure, probably. An i overly worried? Not really.

I think for suborbital flights like yesterday getting to the gate 3 hours prior was the latest I'd want to get there. For a catch... I think you want to be there MUCH earlier.

Cell service was... ok but spotty after the abort as I think everyone was looking to make plans and get info. If you have a Starlink mini and a power supply, bring it to access Twitter for the updates. I was able to follow everyday astronaut on my phone until about T -1:20. There's stream lags and I didn't want to get caught watching him and not the rocket.

Sunscreen! And if you've got umbrellas for your chair, that too! Saw a few popup tents from the ones that were early enough to get spots in that lot that backs up to the jetty.

I've got a zoom call with Mays on Monday morning. If they launch Monday I can't go. If they launch aim Tuesday... I'm coming back!

Edit... $12 cash to get into the park

Kenneth_2003 said:

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PJYoung said:

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To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed & replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026

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Static fire required or no?

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Seems to depend on how hard the shutdown was.

I personally think the computers caught it in time to abort in a friendly way.

So could booster successfully…boost with four engines out?

double aught said:

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So could booster successfully…boost with four engines out?

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I think the stated limit is 3 but I have no idea if they could do more in theory.

PJYoung said:

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double aught said:

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So could booster successfully…boost with four engines out?

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I think the stated limit is 3 but I have no idea if they could do more in theory.

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Only 13 can gimbal though. I think the ones that didn't light were mostly that set of the 33, and I'd expect they have some algorithm for cut off of those critical ones.

Physically I'm sure they can lose a decent amount, but also I'm sure they're taking into account the possibility of losing more engines on the way up. Remember that one launch that was super slow? Maybe the first full stack launch?

Decay said:

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Physically I'm sure they can lose a decent amount, but also I'm sure they're taking into account the possibility of losing more engines on the way up. Remember that one launch that was super slow? Maybe the first full stack launch?

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It was the 1st full stack launch when the pad got obliterated and the concrete debris knocked out several booster engines on the way up.

nortex97 said:

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PJYoung said:

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double aught said:

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So could booster successfully…boost with four engines out?

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I think the stated limit is 3 but I have no idea if they could do more in theory.

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Only 13 can gimbal though. I think the ones that didn't light were mostly that set of the 33, and I'd expect they have some algorithm for cut off of those critical ones.

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Yep, and all the ones that didn't light were all located on inner ring on one side of the stack. Even if they could make it without four Raptors, the location and loss in maneuverability/control killed any launch attempt.

Wonder how they're going to address this kind of situation when doing rapid reuse. Booster swap or in place engine replacement?

hph6203 said:

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Wonder how they're going to address this kind of situation when doing rapid reuse. Booster swap or in place engine replacement?

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I mean the airliner paradigm would suggest your engines aren't going to be that flaky once it's mature so no need to have a solution for fast engine replacement. Backup boosters does seem to be the closest analogy. They should all be essentially the same, and just the starship is what's unique?

Decay said:

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hph6203 said:

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Wonder how they're going to address this kind of situation when doing rapid reuse. Booster swap or in place engine replacement?

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I mean the airliner paradigm would suggest your engines aren't going to be that flaky once it's mature so no need to have a solution for fast engine replacement. Backup boosters does seem to be the closest analogy. They should all be essentially the same, and just the starship is what's unique?

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I am picturing a "maintenance stand" setup somewhere near the pad but out of the way from launches, where they could take a booster off the pad and drop it on the stand for engine replacement without having to take it all the way back to the gigabay. No way do they want the launch mount/catch tower tied up for hours or days with a ship they can't launch while they swap out engines.

I think they'd just bring another booster.

Monday 5:45pm

SpaceX says they are now targeting Monday, July 20th at 6:45 PM ET for their 13th Starship test flight.https://t.co/1QcL29oqvE pic.twitter.com/Ijad13NDhk

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) July 17, 2026

bthotugigem05 said:

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I think they'd just bring another booster.

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In the near term, yes. But in the long term, when they are trying to launch every hour or two, dragging a booster all the way back to the barn for an engine replacement and rolling a new one out might put a crimp in their schedule. Easier to roll out the new booster to keep the flights going and just set the other one aside somewhere close to do the replacement.

I don't think Boca Chica will be the regular launch site. Florida is where they will launch from at scale.

bthotugigem05 said:

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I don't think Boca Chica will be the regular launch site. Florida is where they will launch from at scale.

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For sure.

txags92 said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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I think they'd just bring another booster.

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In the near term, yes. But in the long term, when they are trying to launch every hour or two, dragging a booster all the way back to the barn for an engine replacement and rolling a new one out might put a crimp in their schedule. Easier to roll out the new booster to keep the flights going and just set the other one aside somewhere close to do the replacement.

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They'll supposedly have boosters going round the clock though. Pull off the ship, swap out the booster, slap it back on, put the booster back to the end of the line. They'll have 10 more ready to go in front of it

Decay said:

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txags92 said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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I think they'd just bring another booster.

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In the near term, yes. But in the long term, when they are trying to launch every hour or two, dragging a booster all the way back to the barn for an engine replacement and rolling a new one out might put a crimp in their schedule. Easier to roll out the new booster to keep the flights going and just set the other one aside somewhere close to do the replacement.

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They'll supposedly have boosters going round the clock though. Pull off the ship, swap out the booster, slap it back on, put the booster back to the end of the line. They'll have 10 more ready to go in front of it

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Will they have a refinery near the pad.

Their fuel and oxygen consumption would be at scales that are hard to comprehend.

Musk lives in fantasy land at times.

bmks270 said:

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Decay said:

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txags92 said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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I think they'd just bring another booster.

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In the near term, yes. But in the long term, when they are trying to launch every hour or two, dragging a booster all the way back to the barn for an engine replacement and rolling a new one out might put a crimp in their schedule. Easier to roll out the new booster to keep the flights going and just set the other one aside somewhere close to do the replacement.

---

They'll supposedly have boosters going round the clock though. Pull off the ship, swap out the booster, slap it back on, put the booster back to the end of the line. They'll have 10 more ready to go in front of it

---

Will they have a refinery near the pad.

Their fuel and oxygen consumption would be at scales that are hard to comprehend.

Musk lives in fantasy land at times.





the dude has a habit of turning fantasy into reality

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bmks270 said:

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Decay said:

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txags92 said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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I think they'd just bring another booster.

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In the near term, yes. But in the long term, when they are trying to launch every hour or two, dragging a booster all the way back to the barn for an engine replacement and rolling a new one out might put a crimp in their schedule. Easier to roll out the new booster to keep the flights going and just set the other one aside somewhere close to do the replacement.

---

They'll supposedly have boosters going round the clock though. Pull off the ship, swap out the booster, slap it back on, put the booster back to the end of the line. They'll have 10 more ready to go in front of it

---

Will they have a refinery near the pad.

Their fuel and oxygen consumption would be at scales that are hard to comprehend.

Musk lives in fantasy land at times.

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Starship uses methane. That would just need to split from any nat gas so no refinery. They have a well onsite but will need a pipeline at some point probably

bmks270 said:

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Decay said:

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txags92 said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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I think they'd just bring another booster.

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In the near term, yes. But in the long term, when they are trying to launch every hour or two, dragging a booster all the way back to the barn for an engine replacement and rolling a new one out might put a crimp in their schedule. Easier to roll out the new booster to keep the flights going and just set the other one aside somewhere close to do the replacement.

---

They'll supposedly have boosters going round the clock though. Pull off the ship, swap out the booster, slap it back on, put the booster back to the end of the line. They'll have 10 more ready to go in front of it

---

Will they have a refinery near the pad.

Their fuel and oxygen consumption would be at scales that are hard to comprehend.

Musk lives in fantasy land at times.

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They are building an air separation facility to get the oxygen and nitrogen they need across the road from the launch complex and they will be building an 8-mile pipeline from the Port of Brownsville and plan to build a plant to convert liquid natural gas to liquid methane at the port.

SpaceX plans to build 'Starpipe' natural gas pipeline to fuel Starship rockets | Reuters

Yeah I mean of all the things to doubt Musk on, building big pipes and logistics management is an odd place to start. You've seen his mile-long buildings right?