SpaceX and other space news updates

1,432,961 Views | 15958 Replies | Last: 14 hrs ago by TriAg2010
txags92
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FTAG 2000 said:

Probably some Dem with a beach house on Provo threw some scrap metal down in the yard and claimed it was Elon's fault
I am going to go ahead and call BS on the property damage claim by the FAA without some further evidence showing up. The video in the article linked below is reportedly from a family vacationing on Grand Turk. If that is still heading east southeast, there is nothing for nearly 500 miles until you reach the northernmost british virgin islands.

Watch SpaceX rocket explode over Grand Turk island in dramatic stream of fire and smoke | Live Science
TexAgs91
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hph6203 said:

TexAgs91 said:

hph6203 said:

TexAgs91 said:

There's a lot that is wrong about this breathless woman screaming her analysis

Amy said:

Why was this airspace not CLOSED to begin with?

EXPLOSION IN SPACE
Because SpaceX and the FAA calculate what Starship's ALTITUDE will be along its path. Starship was in already in SPACE (~90 miles above the earth) when it exploded.

Not quite space. You can see in this video there's enough atmosphere to provide drag on the debris. It explodes outward and experiences drag.




That "breathless woman" is a commercial airline pilot and the altitude of the ship was known at the time of the explosion. It was at 146km. It wasn't in "not quite space" it was about 4 airliner altitudes into space.
Ok, I have work experience at NASA, a MS in Physics, a pilot's license and 10 years in aviation weather and flight planning.

ETA:
Quote:

It was at 146km. It wasn't in "not quite space" it was about 4 airliner altitudes into space.
Question: When it exploded at 146km over the earth's surface, did the resulting debris disappear? Was it the explosion that ATC was warning pilots about, or was it the debris?
Is 146km space or not quite space?
Technically yes, it's above the Karmen line. As far as calculating drag on the debris, no, it is not in a complete vacuum. There's still enough atmosphere to apply a drag force on debris. Since the debris is lower mass than Ship, it is affected more by the drag force. As it gets lower, that force goes up exponentially.

Now answer my question
When it exploded at 146km over the earth's surface, did the resulting debris disappear?
Was it the explosion that ATC was warning pilots about, or was it the debris?
Decay
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Pretty sure there's a TFR in the immediate area and then NOTAMs further out. So pilots should have reviewed their flight plan that was flying through that area, and been aware of the launch and possible consequences. This holds true for every rocket launch anyway... We just don't see something like this very often because most rockets in development launch from FL or Virginia in the US, or French Guyana, or New Zealand, etc.

Texas is frankly down the list of "best places in the US to launch from" which is why they're working on the Florida starship tower. But IMO we just saw the worst case scenario for damage to civilians from a starship launch, outside of the booster or ship straight up malfunctioning and going off course.
Kenneth_2003
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bmks270 said:

Apparently one commercial flight didn't have enough fuel to delay or divert course and left the pilot to decide on flying through the debris zone or not.


That pilot should lose their license. They're supposed to have fuel to not only divert to a secondary airport past their primary but also then to linger I think up to 15 min in a hold after diverting.

GAC07 Can confirm that though.
Sharpshooter
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Kenneth_2003 said:

bmks270 said:

Apparently one commercial flight didn't have enough fuel to delay or divert course and left the pilot to decide on flying through the debris zone or not.


That pilot should lose their license. They're supposed to have fuel to not only dinner to a secondary airport past their primary but also then to linger I think up to 15 min in a hold after diverting.

GAC07 Can confirm that though.
Doesn't matter. All airport food sucks.
Kenneth_2003
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Typo fixed. That's what I get for one hand swiping while eating!
Scud Runner
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Looks like it might have just skipped off of the firmament.
hph6203
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TexAgs91 said:

Technically yes, it's above the Karmen line. As far as calculating drag on the debris, no, it is not in a complete vacuum. There's still enough atmosphere to apply a drag force on debris. Since the debris is lower mass than Ship, it is affected more by the drag force. As it gets lower, that force goes up exponentially.

Now answer my question
When it exploded at 146km over the earth's surface, did the resulting debris disappear?
Was it the explosion that ATC was warning pilots about, or was it the debris?
So when you said "not quite space" what you meant was technically space.

Before bothering to answer your questions, let's validity test whether or not they need to be answered.

Does her post say that the debris disappeared and that no disruption to flights occurred? Does it say that absent mitigation strategies that the debris still posed no risk to airplanes?


Re-consider that she is not some random dumb woman on the internet (I agree, there are many) with no expertise in what she's commenting about that you presumed her to be and then re-read what she said.

What is the purpose of her post?


The purpose of the post is to convey to people unfamiliar with flight/space travel that the ship blowing up at 146 km was minimally 84 miles away in "not not quite space" also known as "technically space." Far from any flight in the area. That the potential debris area is calculated in advance of the ship's flight, that airlines are notified of the potential debris area and advised to have contingences if a mishap occurs, and that in the event of a mishap they are notified to execute contingences to avoid the falling debris.

That when discussing the amount of disruption to air travel that occurred you need to consider the amount of disruption that is already accepted in the form of weather delays/diversions and presidential delays/diversion that are substantially larger than what the IFT-7 mishap caused. That is not a comment on the urgency of the response, but rather the scale of disruption.


In other words your criticisms are based upon what you imagined she said based upon the presumption she's some dumb woman rather than what she actually said. And what she's actually doing is explaining to the some dumb woman you presumed her to be that the level of risk posed to airplanes in the area was substantially lower than that some dumb woman assumes.
bmks270
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Looks like multiple flights with fuel emergency due to the debris re-entry.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/s/nRSFsC3RlW


AtlAg05
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Video of Starship RUD?

aggiehawg
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Uhm, is this real?

TexAgs91
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It could be. The military want to use this capability too
hph6203
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Wouldn't expect to book that ticket in the next 15 years.
aggiehawg
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hph6203 said:

Wouldn't expect to book that ticket in the next 15 years.
LOL. I won't be alive in 15 years. The reason I asked was because of Las Vegas bomb guy's "manifesto" about an entirely different propulsion system, that according to him, we already had.

This stuff is not in my wheelhouse so I have little to no frame of reference to know whether something is complete BS or not. So I ask you fine folks to educate me.

Thank you for that BTW.
TexAgs91
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hph6203 said:


Quote:

So when you said "not quite space" what you meant was there was still enough atmosphere at 146km to bring it down, especially with it being thousands of lower mass pieces that are more affected by drag than one large aerodynamic massive vehicle
Correct. That is exactly what I meant.

Quote:

Before bothering to answer your questions, let's validity test whether or not they need to be answered.

Does her post say that the debris disappeared and that no disruption to flights occurred? Does it say that absent mitigation strategies that the debris still posed no risk to airplanes?

Her post said:
"ROCKETS TRAVEL IN SPACE & AIRLINERS FLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Most airliners have a max service ceiling of 41,000 feet or ~7 miles above the earth. The explosion, while spectacular, posed no immediate danger to planes far, far below. It occurred more than 83 miles above them!"

She only talked about the explosion. Did anyone express any concern that the explosion itself was too close to the aircraft? Of course not. No one said that. Your airline pilot and you want to completely ignore the debris coming down as a result of the explosion that ATC was redirecting pilots to avoid.


I get that you don't want to touch those questions because it gets into the actual issue that people were concerned about. Your continued dodge is a good enough answer to my question.

Quote:

The purpose of the post is to convey to people unfamiliar with flight/space travel that the ship blowing up at 146 km was minimally 84 miles away in "not not quite space" also known as "technically space." Far from any flight in the area. That the potential debris area is calculated in advance of the ship's flight, that airlines are notified of the potential debris area and advised to have contingences if a mishap occurs, and that in the event of a mishap they are notified to execute contingences to avoid the falling debris.

No, the potential debris area is unknown because you don't know ahead of time when the explosion will happen. This was the NOTAM that was created January 10th before flight


It only extends about 220 miles into the Gulf from Boca Chica. I believe there were other NOTAMs created for FIRs (Flight Information Regions), but I don't have access to that information right now. But those are large areas and they would not divert flights around those regions unless there was a direct threat like what happened yesterday.

Again, this isn't like a presidential TFR or change in a flight path due to changes in weather where you'd have days to hours to give a heads up. This occurred over a timespan of minutes. That is not acceptable for aircraft safety.

Kenneth_2003
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Kenneth_2003 said:

What was that whipping in the wind on ship??
So Scott Manley thinks this is part of the "dummy" equipment that was added to test aerodynamics of the catch hardware. Perhaps part of a doubler or cover to act as a bumper plate where the arms will grab. Marcus House believes it's related to catch hardware as well.

If I've missed this being posted already, I apologize for re-bombing the Turks & Caicos.

hph6203
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Breathless Woman said:

PLAN ACTIVATED

What happens next? SpaceX notifies the FAA of Starship 7s rapid unscheduled disassembly, the FAA activates the warning area, & ATC follows normal procedures and vectors planes out of or around the Warning zone airspacelong before any debris could possibly fall to the altitude of a plane below. These calculations are done, and contingency plans made, in advance. The FAA doesn't HOPE for the safety of the airliners, it KNOWS they will be safe, by DESIGN.
Think you need to re-read her actual post rather than your presumption of what it said.

Think you also need to reconsider what the whole of the internet might be concerned about, because I guarantee you there were people thinking that the explosion could have hit nearby airplanes. People are stupid.
TexAgs91
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hph6203 said:

Breathless Woman said:

PLAN ACTIVATED

What happens next? SpaceX notifies the FAA of Starship 7s rapid unscheduled disassembly, the FAA activates the warning area, & ATC follows normal procedures and vectors planes out of or around the Warning zone airspacelong before any debris could possibly fall to the altitude of a plane below. These calculations are done, and contingency plans made, in advance. The FAA doesn't HOPE for the safety of the airliners, it KNOWS they will be safe, by DESIGN.
Think you need to re-read her actual post rather than your presumption of what it said.

Think you also need to reconsider what the whole of the internet might be concerned about, because I guarantee you there were people thinking that the explosion could have hit nearby airplanes. People are stupid.
Yes, I read that. And yes, that is what the ATC did. You've never acknowledged my response that this diversion away from the debris area had to be done in a matter of minutes. ATC does warn pilots of emergencies that come up in seconds, like when a air to air collision is about to occur, but this is over a large area, much of it over the ocean with few airfields. They were hoping that diversions could be made in time and that pilots had enough fuel to divert. It worked out ok, but it was not guaranteed.

I'm just saying, this needs to be made safer in the future.
will25u
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Kunkle for Congress TX-34
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Damn!
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself."
Kunkle for Congress TX-34
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hph6203 said:

Wouldn't expect to book that ticket in the next 15 years.


7 max.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself."
hph6203
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Nah.
Kunkle for Congress TX-34
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You are right…6!
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself."
will25u
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TexAgs91
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hph6203 said:

Breathless Woman said:

PLAN ACTIVATED

What happens next? SpaceX notifies the FAA of Starship 7s rapid unscheduled disassembly, the FAA activates the warning area, & ATC follows normal procedures and vectors planes out of or around the Warning zone airspacelong before any debris could possibly fall to the altitude of a plane below. These calculations are done, and contingency plans made, in advance. The FAA doesn't HOPE for the safety of the airliners, it KNOWS they will be safe, by DESIGN.
Think you need to re-read her actual post rather than your presumption of what it said.

Think you also need to reconsider what the whole of the internet might be concerned about, because I guarantee you there were people thinking that the explosion could have hit nearby airplanes. People are stupid.
Here she is on Ellie in Space


She comes across better on here than on her X post. But, as I commented there
At 5:08 she says the explosion happened at about 90 miles altitude. That is correct, but the debris wouldn't light up like that at 90 miles altitude... there's not a lot of air up there. It does that at about 40-45 miles altitude. Which means the debris was descending from 90 miles altitude to the point you could see the streaks at about 45 miles, and following that path... continuing to descend. Otherwise, good info.
hph6203
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aggiehawg said:

hph6203 said:

Wouldn't expect to book that ticket in the next 15 years.
LOL. I won't be alive in 15 years. The reason I asked was because of Las Vegas bomb guy's "manifesto" about an entirely different propulsion system, that according to him, we already had.

This stuff is not in my wheelhouse so I have little to no frame of reference to know whether something is complete BS or not. So I ask you fine folks to educate me.

Thank you for that BTW.
Vegas guy's claim was that a propulsion system exists that can distort gravity around the ship, which is a derivative claim of UFO nut Bob Lazar. Is it possible he's not just a crazy person? Sure, but odds heavily favor crazy person over legitimate reality.

Starship has the ability to achieve those travel speeds through combustion and just going really, really fast/traveling through a near vacuum. It's not speed of travel that differentiates Starship from technology from 60 years ago that makes those flight times possible, but rather Starship's ability to land after launching.
nortex97
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I am seeing speculative claims online that Booster 14 will be re-used for IFT9, yet I do think this is just 'rumor mill' types of stuff right now.
lb3
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I don't get the need for fire suppression. They should focus on killing the fire triangle before they add suppression.
TexAgs91
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lb3 said:

I don't get the need for fire suppression. They should focus on killing the fire triangle before they add suppression.


It's for redundancy. I know that's an odd word for SpaceX but until they're sure they can stop the leak, they can add fire suppression and remove it later when they're sure the leak is solved.
Kenneth_2003
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nortex97 said:



I am seeing speculative claims online that Booster 14 will be re-used for IFT9, yet I do think this is just 'rumor mill' types of stuff right now.


Makes sense if they can do it. Seems like they've got a reliable unit. Why not send it up than to the scrap heap? Free up construction resources, time, money, hardware for Booster V2 and getting the Raptor 3 ready.
nortex97
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Well, they are all 'block 1' so far but 15-16 are basically ready, and 17 probably will be fully assembled (if not proofed) by the time the next flight heads upward.

The question is whether the 'reusability' data would be more helpful vs. the iterative changes they want to test on the new-builds. I think Block 2 would be getting raptor 3's, and there are only so many launches (if at 1 per month rate) I would guess they want to use block 1's this spring/summer. The other real issue is I would think they don't want to risk not getting a block 2 upper stage into (sub-) orbit with a re-used booster failure on the next one.
Mathguy64
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Seems to me they need to focus on making Ship more reliable. Right now they can't even get that down. Reusing a booster now just adds an extra massive variable.
Zobel
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likely different teams, no?
jt2hunt
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Mathguy64 said:

Seems to me they need to focus on making Ship more reliable. Right now they can't even get that down. Reusing a booster now just adds an extra massive variable.


Why are those two issues tied together? Why can't they work on both of them at the same time?
Mathguy64
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jt2hunt said:

Mathguy64 said:

Seems to me they need to focus on making Ship more reliable. Right now they can't even get that down. Reusing a booster now just adds an extra massive variable.


Why are those two issues tied together? Why can't they work on both of them at the same time?


So if the reused booster failed before separation what good did a new ship do?

Ship depends on booster to work flawlessly, at least through stage separation.

At some point you want to demonstrate you can reuse a booster. But at the expense of getting nothing out of a new Ship? That seems pointless.
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