Jock 07 said:

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Who didn't see this coming?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10608023/amp/Video-posted-Russias-space-program-threatens-leave-astronaut-55-aboard-space-station.html

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Putting him back on that capsule is going to take a lot more than just trust in your relationships with Roscosmos. You've got to trust that Putin's jackboots don't simply kidnap him or arrest him on some made up charges when he tries to fly home.

I'm for paying Elon to go get him.

bthotugigem05 said:

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Axiom's new modules will have to have life support functions so I think you're right.

I've been told unofficially that ULA is in possession of functional BE-4 engines, not just pathfinders.

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Not to be an ass, but I've got a real hard time believing that Bezos and Bruno are both being quiet about it if they have operational BE-4s. As much crap that's been thrown at them, they'd love to shut people up there.

Not being an ass at all. I trust my source but I would think the same thing.

Thank you for the offer, but such excellent training would give me too much of an advantage.

If he is afraid to fight, I will agree to use only my left hand and I am not even left-handed.

Elona

— Elona Musk (@elonmusk) March 15, 2022

He changed his name to Elona

Build It said:

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I'm for paying Elon to go get him.

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When does Crew 3 come home? Put a SpaceX suit for him on the Crew 4 launch in April?

Edit based on the post below mine... I'd REALLY be inclined to bring him home with the Axiom tourists. Plus it'd be kinda funny for the tourists to make the 1yr veteran sit in the back row since "you don't know how to fly this ship."

Richard Aboulafia, who is sort of a blow-hard of aerospace analysts/journalists or whatever, yet is overall pretty well informed had this note this month about the RD-180's;

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Second, Space. Since I know little about this, I asked AeroDynamic Senior Analyst Martha Neubauer for her views. She says: "The invasion increases a trend already present in the space industry sovereignty. While it's unlikely collaboration will end on the ISS, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions and retaliations have increased pressure on the US and Europe to become fully independent in space launch capabilities.

"Up until last year the US was dependent on Russian rockets to get astronauts to the ISS, and the EU relies partly on Russia to get navigation satellites into orbit. Russia has halted deliveries of RD-180 engines to the US, which power the Atlas V rocket to launch communications, reconnaissance, and missile warning satellites, but the Atlas V replacement, the Vulcan Centaur, uses US engines and is slated for first flight this summer. The US now has more satellite launch vehicle options thanks to SpaceX's Falcon 9, so the loss of RD-180s is far from catastrophic, particularly since there's an inventory of around 24 RD-180s at ULA. Still, the feared loss of navigation, communication, and reconnaissance will drive increased US space budgets and benefit US space launch companies for years."

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What I don't know is why the US inventory of RD-180's matters. Lockheed has scrapped the ability to construct more Atlas Centaur V's I believe (per Tim Dodd's video 6 or so months ago), to bring the Vulcan Centaur stuff online. Anyway...

No sign of schedule changes;

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On March 30, Soyuz MS-19 will undock from the ISS and return to Earth carrying Russian cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov as well as NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei.

Both Dubrov and Vande Hei are returning home after a year in space.

Recent Russian actions and provocative statements from Roscosmos head Dimitry Rogozin had led to concern that Vande Hei may not return home on the Soyuz. But Montalbano said during a US-79 spacewalk preview briefing on March 14 that "I can tell you for sure Mark is coming home on that Soyuz.

We are in communication with our Russian colleagues. There's no fuzz on that."

The statement from Montalbano was the first confirmation from NASA that such a return for Vande Hei was a certainty.

Nevertheless, on the same day that Vande Hei is scheduled to depart the ISS and return to Earth on Soyuz, a SpaceX Crew Dragon will launch with the Axiom-1 crew, carrying four international private astronauts on a week-long mission to the outpost.

The Axiom-1 mission will arrive one day after launch and undock and return to Earth on April 8 after a one-week stay.

Just a week after Axiom-1's departure, another Crew Dragon will launch on April 15, this time for the Crew-4 long-duration mission. Crew-4 will carry astronauts Kjell Lindgren, Bob Hines, and Jessica Watkins from NASA as well as Samantha Cristoforetti for the European Space Agency.

Crew-4 will dock on April 16 for a five-month stay at the station.

Concluding the busy period of operations, the Crew-3 Dragon, carrying astronauts Raja Chari, Thomas Marshburn, Kayla Barron, and Matthias Maurer, will undock on April 21 and return home following a nearly six-month mission.

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'Fully focused' James Webb Space Telescope beats expectations https://t.co/q7Ib7Q1jZs

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) March 17, 2022

They're supposed to take over from the Russian block anyway. The eventual plan is apparently to build their 4-5 modules out, and once ISS is to be decommissioned, they'll grab the Japanese lab module and the candarms, then punt what's left of the old station loose.

Wasn't part of the CRS requirement that the dragon 2 be able to integrate onto centaur, and the starliner onto falcon so that a launch vehicle loss wouldn't ground either system? That was one of the big selling points I remember being flogged on with Boeing getting so much money, that it would mean redundancy with both vehicles AND launch systems?

Ag_of_08 said:

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They're supposed to take over from the Russian block anyway. The eventual plan is apparently to build their 4-5 modules out, and once ISS is to be decommissioned, they'll grab the Japanese lab module and the candarms, then punt what's left of the old station loose.

Wasn't part of the CRS requirement that the dragon 2 be able to integrate onto centaur, and the starliner onto falcon so that a launch vehicle loss wouldn't ground either system? That was one of the big selling points I remember being flogged on with Boeing getting so much money, that it would mean redundancy with both vehicles AND launch systems?

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Thanks for sending me down that rabbit hole...

What I've found so far is that it was not a requirement per se, but in Alan Lindenmoyer's (Commercial Crew Program director) presentation announcing the candidates back in 2010, Boeing advertised that Starliner would be compatible with Atlas V, Delta IV, and Falcon 9. Crew Dragon has never been advertised as having the ability to fly on a Centaur. I've seen nothing that indicates any work has been done at all regarding being able to launch Starliner on an F9, and it would probably take 2 years (at least) of solid design and analysis work to make it so. You're going to need a new adapter at a minimum.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if SpaceX hasn't had a couple guys at least looking at this (it's exactly the kind of flex Elon loves to make), but my guess is we'll never see it happen.

Raptor said:

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And now I have a new Lock Screen pic!

Part of the issue isn't just the fairing/mechanical integration, but again the F9 is integrated horizontally, something for which the Starliner is not designed at all. I would think that would be less an issue for Dreamchaser, even though it is doing vertical as well, today, since it is after all designed to re-enter/land horizontally…

The Cignus cargo could be used for reboost most easily though, in lieu of the Russians. The NG Antares which predominantly launches this, is not grounded. I'd forgotten that this is probably why the inventory of RD-180's (around 24) might matter; the Antares uses 2 on the 1st stage.

Maximus_Meridius said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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They're supposed to take over from the Russian block anyway. The eventual plan is apparently to build their 4-5 modules out, and once ISS is to be decommissioned, they'll grab the Japanese lab module and the candarms, then punt what's left of the old station loose.

Wasn't part of the CRS requirement that the dragon 2 be able to integrate onto centaur, and the starliner onto falcon so that a launch vehicle loss wouldn't ground either system? That was one of the big selling points I remember being flogged on with Boeing getting so much money, that it would mean redundancy with both vehicles AND launch systems?

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Thanks for sending me down that rabbit hole...

What I've found so far is that it was not a requirement per se, but in Alan Lindenmoyer's (Commercial Crew Program director) presentation announcing the candidates back in 2010, Boeing advertised that Starliner would be compatible with Atlas V, Delta IV, and Falcon 9. Crew Dragon has never been advertised as having the ability to fly on a Centaur. I've seen nothing that indicates any work has been done at all regarding being able to launch Starliner on an F9, and it would probably take 2 years (at least) of solid design and analysis work to make it so. You're going to need a new adapter at a minimum.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if SpaceX hasn't had a couple guys at least looking at this (it's exactly the kind of flex Elon loves to make), but my guess is we'll never see it happen.

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Ah, so it was a talking point, but never actually made a requirement. That's funny, because a lot of thebspace bloggers/tubers still use it as a talking point.

Nortex: isn't spacex building a vertical integration facility at the cape for NROL/space force launches?

As an aside, it is pretty comical to me that OneWeb is basically reduced to begging SpaceX for help...after their antics just 6 or so months ago.

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Capitalism in space: In an FCC filing on April 20th, SpaceX accused a lobbyist for OneWeb to have made false claims against SpaceX in connection with a close approach between Starlink and OneWeb satellites.

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In yesterday's filing to the FCC, SpaceX said that "OneWeb's head lobbyist recently made demonstrably inaccurate statements to the media about recent coordinations of physical operations. Specifically, Mr. McLaughlin of OneWeb told the Wall Street Journal that SpaceX switched off its AI-powered, autonomous collision avoidance system and 'they couldn't do anything to avoid a collision.' Rather, SpaceX and OneWeb were working together in good faith at the technical level. As part of these discussions, OneWeb itself requested that SpaceX turn off the system temporarily to allow their maneuver, as agreed by the parties."

SpaceX's "autonomous collision avoidance system was and remains fully functional at all times," SpaceX also wrote.

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SpaceX also claimed that OneWeb admitted that the claims of its lobbyist were false, but OneWeb subsequently denied this.

It appears overall that OneWeb and its lobbyist tried to use this event to not only attack SpaceX, but to hinder SpaceX's development of Starlink. According to SpaceX's filing,

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OneWeb's misleading public statements coincide with OneWeb's intensified efforts to prevent SpaceX from completing a safety upgrade to its system. For instance, immediately after the first inaccurate quotes came out in media accounts, OneWeb met with Commission staff and Commissioners demanding unilateral conditions placed on SpaceX's operations. Ironically, the conditions demanded by OneWeb would make it more difficult to successfully coordinate difficult operations going forward, demonstrating more of a concern with limiting competitors than with a genuine concern for space safety.

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Based on SpaceX's overall past history and the track record of its competitors, I tend to believe SpaceX here. While the company has a very aggressive development culture, it also reacts instantly to any circumstances where its actions conflict with others. This doesn't mean it backs off completely, only that it has always been willing to work with others to address their concerns.

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Maybe this 'disruption' of Soyuz launches will wind up really benefiting some of the smaller start ups, with an inflow of somewhat desperate customers who might break up launches into multiple smaller ones.

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SpaceX in the frame

"The launch industry is in a state of major transition, making it very difficult to absorb near-term demand," Quilty Analytics senior analyst Caleb Henry said.

"With the exception of SpaceX, all of the world's heavy-lift launch providers are retiring their flagship vehicles," he said. "That means manufacturing of trusted and true rockets is slowing to a halt while new vehicles are just beginning to ramp production."

Additionally, new launch vehicles always take longer than expected to debut and settle into a flight rhythm, Henry said, meaning "launch rates will be low for many vehicles in the coming years."

The industry is still waiting for Arianespace's Ariane 6, ULA's Vulcan and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' H3 next-generation rockets and Blue Origin's New Glenn to make their maiden flights following delays.
As Russia was massing troops near Ukraine in December under the pretense of military exercises, satellite executives gathered in Paris for Euroconsult's annual World Satellite Business Week conference noted the potential for schedule pressure and geopolitics to create a bottleneck. "If I was a commercial satellite operator, I'd be very concerned, and we are hearing those concerns," said Tiphaine Louradour, president of International Launch Services, a U.S.-based company that markets Proton and Soyuz.

Like Krebs and others, Henry noted that SpaceX is the only launch provider outside of China with an operational, high-cadence, heavy-launch capability that is not fully booked or winding down production.
SpaceX, Henry said, would be "an undesirable choice for OneWeb."

Even though SpaceX's Starlink broadband constellation is principally geared toward consumers, and OneWeb toward enterprises, he said the two still compete for government customers "and risk greater competition as they flesh out different services."
SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.

Claude Rousseau, a consultant for Northern Sky Research, also sees "very little room to absorb a higher cadence of launch for Soyuz-class capacity" as "most of the current launch vehicles are fully manifested for the next 24 to 36 months."

However, Rousseau believes this also offers "opportunities for those who wanted to rise to the occasion," pointing to multiple emerging small satellite launchers that are working toward launching at a regular cadence.

"These unproven vehicles are making many potential customers uneasy, but they will eventually help unclog the launch bottleneck," Rousseau said.

Relativity Space's Terran 1, Firefly's Alpha and ABL's RS1 are all advertising capabilities to send 1,000-kilograms or more to low Earth orbit.

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I bet Rocketlab really wishes they were at least a year further along with their Neutron plans (slated for 2024 initial launch as of now).

Yes, I know of all the issues with the SLS, but as someone who grew up watching every space shuttle flight and hearing from my parents and relatives about the moon landings, I think it is still awesome to see.

Platform retraction: COMPLETE 🤩

All of the platforms surrounding @NASA_SLS & @NASA_Orion have been retracted in preparation for rollout. On March 17, the #Artemis I stack will begin the journey to Launch Complex 39B ahead of the wet dress rehearsal test: https://t.co/eE4C0EEZP0 pic.twitter.com/YlWBQ8Q3ag

— NASA's Kennedy Space Center (@NASAKennedy) March 16, 2022

Ah, I forgot/didn't know that. I haven't been able to find an update on it since 2020 though, and with all of their plans that have changed since then I am not sure where they are with that.

I still can't get over their pace. It took like a week to pull back the arms?!

I know Astra is doing better in the last 24hrs on the stock prices.... hope people are getting excited

From Ben Cooper

Still moving along.

NEWS: Netflix has released the trailer for Return To Space.

It'll offer rare inside access to NASA and SpaceX, and tell the thrilling story of the nearly 20 year journey to send American astronauts back to space aboard U.S. rockets. It releases April 7th. @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/lEfJRiKlEX

— Sawyer Merritt 📈🚀 (@SawyerMerritt) March 17, 2022

Whoa.

Here's the color of the flight suits worn by the most recent Soyuz mission to the ISS, which docked in December 2021. pic.twitter.com/JhoIpjGg9j

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 18, 2022

These colors are just not subtle. pic.twitter.com/CyA12JzTWB

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 18, 2022

I'm sorry. They need to get back on their Soyuz and go home. That's a blatant political statement and it's go no place up there. Whatever else is being said on the ground that's got no place up there.

Yeah, keep your politics on your own planet!

I had to reprogram sone of my tractor guidance units today because they had a glitch with the GLONASS satellites. It was limited to older units that had to be 'opened up' to use GLONASS via a patch in the first place and it was just something in the code - not related to Ruskies. However…. I had an OH sH*T "they've turned us off moment!!

Mathguy64 said:

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I'm sorry. They need to get back on their Soyuz and go home. That's a blatant political statement and it's go no place up there. Whatever else is being said on the ground that's got no place up there.

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And the head of the Russian space agency saying he'd let the ISS fall on the US or Europe isn't reason enough to disband the partnership?

Mathguy64 said:

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I'm sorry. They need to get back on their Soyuz and go home. That's a blatant political statement and it's go no place up there. Whatever else is being said on the ground that's got no place up there.

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I think it's an amazing way for them to show they are supporting Uktaine. Pretty brave of all of them.

PJYoung said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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I'm sorry. They need to get back on their Soyuz and go home. That's a blatant political statement and it's go no place up there. Whatever else is being said on the ground that's got no place up there.

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I think it's an amazing way for them to show they are supporting Uktaine. Pretty brave of all of them.

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Maybe I'm missing something. I think it's the Russians saying "Ukraine is ours". But you may be right. If so they just committed suicide.

I think the definition of the word "facetious" would b ehel0ful here ;-)

Yeah if they were making some kind of anti-Ukraine statement, they wouldn't wear those colors. They'd show up looking like Ivan Drago with red uniforms and the hammer and sickle.

You're not going to wear the colors of the country you're invading unless you're against the invasion.

Like this Russian conscripts mother painting her fingernails blue and yellow at an antiwar protest in Moscow.

You rarely hear from mothers of Russian soldiers. This lady came up to us at an anti-war protest in Moscow, desperate for the safety of her 22 yr old son. She told us there were only 10 men left in his regiment. If there are voices Putin fears, it’s these pic.twitter.com/CNAY3gK0uj

— James Longman (@JamesAALongman) March 17, 2022

Centerpole90 said:

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I had to reprogram sone of my tractor guidance units today because they had a glitch with the GLONASS satellites. It was limited to older units that had to be 'opened up' to use GLONASS via a patch in the first place and it was just something in the code - not related to Ruskies. However…. I had an OH sH*T "they've turned us off moment!!

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So, how many tanks do your tractors have, now?