SpaceX and other space news updates

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PJYoung
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They don't think the raptors are installed yet BTW.

Another crazy marine layer moved in this afternoon. Super weird spring on the coast down here.
Malachi Constant
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PJYoung said:


Good Lord I've never seen engineering or construction move this quickly.

A few weeks ago it was a joke that "maybe catching the Starship with the tower is a good idea" and now they've got a building permit.
PJYoung
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nortex97
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Sounds ok so far.

But moving at the speed of SLS.



Ag_of_08
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Kind of surprising as it means sls continues to be left farther and farther behind, but someone may have pointed out the absolute idiocy of expecting astronauts to climb up a 2 story ladder, with no backup, in an Eva suit if they went with the "favored" option for the lander.

You have BO at least CLAIMING they'll have a heavy lifter flying next year. You have spacex with a heavy lifter already flying now. You have ULA with a smaller lift, but high energy upper stage ready to go.... why are we still not exploring earth orbit rendezvous for Orion? EOR, even if you give ULA 2 billion to build an adapter and set a centaur up for the lunar injection burn, and SpaceX 2 billion to man rate the Falcon Heavy( or hell, don't man rate heavy.... put the orion on heavy empty, rendezvous a dragon with it in orbit, no man rating required), plus pay for an Orion and the 4-6 launches necessary to set it all up with an unmanned test flight and a manned circumlunar flight, you STILL are cheaper than paying for two SLS flights to donthe same thing.

If ULA doesn't want to play ball in a 4 year/fixed price contract, I'm reasonably sure, without doing the numbers, spacex could be talked into doing the whole mission, and the falcon S-2 should be more than capable of making the TLI burn.

There are just simpler options all the way around. We're stuck in the Apollo mindset of minimal number of launches for maximum weight, but the cost per KG and cost per flight difference has made that need less imperative. Starship will be amazing for the weight that it can lift, and more flights definitely reduce complications, but we're going to stand around and kick rocks for a bigger and better rocket until we get left behind.
Ag_of_08
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Angry astronaut has to be taken with a grain of salt, but...

lead
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You have BO at least CLAIMING they'll have a heavy lifter flying next year. You have spacex with a heavy lifter already flying now. You have ULA with a smaller lift, but high energy upper stage ready to go.... why are we still not exploring earth orbit rendezvous for Orion? EOR, even if you give ULA 2 billion to build an adapter and set a centaur up for the lunar injection burn, and SpaceX 2 billion to man rate the Falcon Heavy( or hell, don't man rate heavy.... put the orion on heavy empty, rendezvous a dragon with it in orbit, no man rating required), plus pay for an Orion and the 4-6 launches necessary to set it all up with an unmanned test flight and a manned circumlunar flight, you STILL are cheaper than paying for two SLS flights to donthe same thing.

Nerd rant? I'm a pretty big dork, but I didn't understand any of that. Not even in the slightest.
bthotugigem05
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This cracked me up: https://www.facebook.com/groups/spacexgroup/permalink/10159844769371318/
PJYoung
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Ag_of_08
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Earth orbit rendezvous, at least talking about the moon, would go something like this( with the minimum amount of new tech and development work.):

A falcon heavy would launch an Orion, unmanned.

A crew dragon would launch with the crew of the Orion on board and a support crew, rendezvous with the unmanned Orion, and drop the crew off.

Another launch vehicle would launch, probably a Vulcan centaur, with no payload beyond a docking/mating adapter, and the stage would rendezvous with the orion and it will dock.

They would use the upper stage to burn for the moon, like the Saturn did, then capture just like it would have if the SLS had done it in one go.

It IS more complex, but it's also much cheaper( the development and launch costs of the sls LAUNCH are going to cost more and likely take longer), minimal development time, and the extra complexity is easily aborted all the way up until the TLI burn. After that it's the same thing as the SLS.


This was actually one of the original Apollo plans, but was eventually dropped due to costs. Now we have vulcan/centaur coming online with a good, proven upperstage. We have falcon heavy that can heavy lift, and blue origin is claiming they will be flying the new Glenn next year. The launch costs on all of these are low enough to make the plans viable.
Maximus_Meridius
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Ag_of_08 said:

Now we have vulcan/centaur coming online with a good, proven upperstage. We have falcon heavy that can heavy lift, and blue origin is claiming they will be flying the new Glenn next year. The launch costs on all of these are low enough to make the plans viable.
Ag_of_08
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Lol! I qualified the statement....any statement involving them is qualified!
PJYoung
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Zoomable picture of SN16 heat tiles

https://www.easyzoom.com/imageaccess/ae72156c4466474c8867480378d07430
nortex97
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Maximus_Meridius said:

Ag_of_08 said:

Now we have vulcan/centaur coming online with a good, proven upperstage. We have falcon heavy that can heavy lift, and blue origin is claiming they will be flying the new Glenn next year. The launch costs on all of these are low enough to make the plans viable.

Exactly. I do respect Bezos ability to do two things;

1. Distribute products in a very efficient way.
2. Hire propagandists to spread his messaging.

I don't in any way respect his ability to build space launch vehicles, especially not on a promised timeline. Their plant down in Florida looks pretty but there is zero evidence of actual flight test article production even starting yet.
Maximus_Meridius
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And yet, think about how much of space travel is currently hinging on Blue Origin actually being able to, you know...do something besides a suborbital launch carrying absolutely nothing...

1 - New Glenn
2 - Vulcan/Centaur, which is using the BE-4 (supposedly they've run full duration tests, but that engine ain't flown yet)
3 - They're going to get the lander contract, we all know it, might as well just get the crying over with...

As much as I despise Bezos (I have some friends that had to take jobs in Amazon warehouses thanks to losing their jobs in the lockdowns up here...not pleasant), the reality is that he has somehow managed to position BO into a position of influence in the space industry despite not really having done a damn thing. We pretty much have to hope that BO does something resembling success, or space travel will just be that much more hindered going forward.
Ag_of_08
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They might get the contract, but I don't think it will ever fly. There's too much private money getting thrown at space.

I personally think artmeis will implode within three years, especially if SLS has ANY failures.They'll make a big scene if the "national " team lander getting the contract, but I don't see one ever landing...

The BE-4 appears to be ready to go. I think ULA knows what's riding on the whole thing, and would have ditched them a year ago if delivery wasn't in sight. ULA cannot afford o have vulcan hamstrung, they don't have the engine supply to keep atlas going, and a loss of the vulcan as an option would effectively bankrupt them. They'd go hat in hand begging to buy Merlins or raptors before they'd give it up, or transition to a man rate-able version of something like the rs-60
nortex97
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Yep, it's frustrating.

Some good news though; nuclear thermal propulsion award to GA. I do believe that for nuclear thermal to advance Nasa support is needed, and General Atomics is a great partner here. BWXT I believe is the other one we discussed here a ways back (also moving forward).



Quote:

General Atomics' Christina Back: Nuclear thermal propulsion "will enable spacecraft to travel immense distances quickly"

WASHINGTON The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency awarded a $22 million contract to General Atomics to design a small nuclear reactor for space propulsion, the agency announced April 9.

General Atomics, based in San Diego, California, was selected for the first phase of a program known as a DRACO, short for demonstration rocket for agile cislunar operations. The project is to demonstrate nuclear thermal propulsion or the use of a nuclear reactor to heat up rocket fuel to generate thrust.

DARPA's Tactical Technology Office in May 2020 solicited proposals in a "broad agency announcement." The goal is to test a nuclear thermal propulsion system in orbit by 2025.

Space propulsion systems in use today include electric and chemical propulsion, but other options might be needed for future exploration beyond Earth's orbit, DARPA noted. "The DRACO program intends to develop novel nuclear thermal propulsion technology. Unlike propulsion technologies in use today, NTP can achieve high thrust-to-weights similar to chemical propulsion but with two to five times the efficiency.'

The ability to monitor cislunar space the volume of space between the Earth and the moon will require a "leap-ahead in propulsion technology," said DARPA.

The DRACO program will attempt to demonstrate a nuclear thermal propulsion system on orbit. A nuclear reactor will heat propellant to extreme temperatures before expelling the hot propellant through a nozzle to produce thrust.

Christina Back, vice president of nuclear technologies and materials at General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems, said nuclear thermal propulsion is a "leap ahead of conventional propulsion technology and will enable spacecraft to travel immense distances quickly."

"Agile spacecraft are critical to maintain space domain awareness and significantly reduce transit times in the vast cislunar region," Back said in a statement to SpaceNews.

For space exploration such as human missions to Mars, Back said, "nuclear propulsion will allow for more versatility of launch windows, and enable longer stays on the planet itself."
Maximus_Meridius
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Ag_of_08 said:

They might get the contract, but I don't think it will ever fly. There's too much private money getting thrown at space.

I personally think artmeis will implode within three years, especially if SLS has ANY failures.They'll make a big scene if the "national " team lander getting the contract, but I don't see one ever landing...

The BE-4 appears to be ready to go. I think ULA knows what's riding on the whole thing, and would have ditched them a year ago if delivery wasn't in sight. ULA cannot afford o have vulcan hamstrung, they don't have the engine supply to keep atlas going, and a loss of the vulcan as an option would effectively bankrupt them. They'd go hat in hand begging to buy Merlins or raptors before they'd give it up, or transition to a man rate-able version of something like the rs-60
Honestly speaking? I think SLS will (eventually) fly, and I might actually be convinced it would be this decade. Will Artemis reach the moon this decade? Nope. I personally believe Elon has time to get Starship ironed out, fly to the moon, build a stadium and sell tickets to tourists to see Artemis land on the moon.

The thing about ULA/Vulcan that is so confusing to me is you're right. They've got to get Vulcan going and they cannot afford significant problems. That is what makes it so weird that ULA went with BO instead of Aerojet-Rocketdyne. Hell, ULA now essentially owns AR. For them to go with a company that has yet to successfully prove they can really do anything of note (hell, amateur rocketeers have hit the same altitudes New Shepherd has) instead of a company with decades of provenance and know-how on a rocket that is this important really boggles my mind.
CanyonAg77
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Did I miss the Google Translate for this thread?

ULA BO SLS LSMFT????

"Excuse me stewardess, I speak Nerd."
Ag_of_08
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I think the biggest issue they had, at the time, with aj-rd was what aj-rd was proposing. The functionally where pushing for a version of the rs-60 from what I remember, but ULA new the hurdles in place to man rate that.

Either BO has the BE-4 ready, or they're in for a helluva lawsuit/legal battle. There's almost no alternative at this point, and I can't come up with a viable scenario at all, unless the figure out how to make some rs-25b derivative work.... I mean Boeing is not a confidence inspiring organization, but even they know that it will likely cost them the entire company to have the engines fail at this point.
Ag_of_08
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CanyonAg77 said:

Did I miss the Google Translate for this thread?

ULA BO SLS LSMFT????

"Excuse me stewardess, I speak Nerd."


Lsmft I'm not sure off the top of my head what you're referring to.

Bo is blue origin
Sls is the space launch system ( big orange waste of money)
ULA is united launch alliance... Boeing/Lockheed/Grumman/others

We're talking about blue origin's big dreams of a heavy lifter rocket called New Glenn, and the BE-4 engine that will power it. ULA are also buying that engine to replace the controversial use of the Russian engine they're currently using on the Atlas V launch vehicle. Both are either super well kept secrets, or BO is full of **** and going to take ULA down with them.

SLS is the bloated, obsolete orange monstrosity, designed by committee for the sole purpose of keeping certain Alabama senators constituents happy. It is the current center of the artemis program, allegedly NASAs plan for moon and Mars flights.
Kenneth_2003
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Didn't realize ULA was going with the BE-4.
That means that they have flight ready Vulcans on the floor waiting for an engine? Geez!

Smarter Everyday got a remarkable behind the scenes tour of the plant with the ULA CEO a while back and put out a heck of a video documenting his trip.

Kenneth_2003
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Ag_of_08 said:

CanyonAg77 said:

Did I miss the Google Translate for this thread?

ULA BO SLS LSMFT????

"Excuse me stewardess, I speak Nerd."


Lsmft I'm not sure off the top of my head what you're referring to.

Bo is blue origin
Sls is the space launch system ( big orange waste of money)
ULA is united launch alliance... Boeing/Lockheed/Grumman/others

We're talking about blue origin's big dreams of a heavy lifter rocket called New Glenn, and the BE-4 engine that will power it. ULA are also buying that engine to replace the controversial use of the Russian engine they're currently using on the Atlas V launch vehicle. Both are either super well kept secrets, or BO is full of **** and going to take ULA down with them.

SLS is the bloated, obsolete orange monstrosity, designed by committee for the sole purpose of keeping certain Alabama senators constituents happy. It is the current center of the artemis program, allegedly NASAs plan for moon and Mars flights.
Lucky Strike Means Fine Tobacco?
Maximus_Meridius
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Ag_of_08 said:

I think the biggest issue they had, at the time, with aj-rd was what aj-rd was proposing. The functionally where pushing for a version of the rs-60 from what I remember, but ULA new the hurdles in place to man rate that.

Either BO has the BE-4 ready, or they're in for a helluva lawsuit/legal battle. There's almost no alternative at this point, and I can't come up with a viable scenario at all, unless the figure out how to make some rs-25b derivative work.... I mean Boeing is not a confidence inspiring organization, but even they know that it will likely cost them the entire company to have the engines fail at this point.
I'm guessing you meant the RS-68?

Found the below when I was trying to figure out if there was an "RS-60" that I didn't know about. ULA CEO about choosing BO's BE-4 (That's "Blue Engine-4" in laymen's terms).

Quote:

Q: How does Blue Origin fit into the NGLS plans?
A: One of the things policymakers have said is that it's time to move off the Russian engine, the venerable RD-180 that we have underneath the Atlas, and move onto an American engine. I agree. I think now is the time. We went out looking for candidate engines to put underneath our rocket, specifically our Next Generation, and we found that the Blue Origin engine had a couple advantages. First off, it was three years into a development cycle. It takes five to seven years to develop an engine. They were the only folks out there really actively developing a new engine anywhere near our size class. And, with the partnership we put together with Blue Origin and (owner) Jeff Bezos, that engine is largely funded. So we chose that engine. ...
I'm also going to share with you that we have a backup. Engines are tough. Rockets are hard in general, and the engine is probably the most complex thing on a launch vehicle of the nature we build. We have a backup plan. Aerojet Rocketdyne (which has a Huntsville facility) also has come forward with a rocket engine that is very attractive in its technology and its performance. They're a couple of years behind Blue. We're going to bring them both along parallel for at least a couple more years until it's clear. Now I fully expect Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin to succeed, but I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't manage that risk by having this backup plan.
What's hilarious is that this interview was in 2015.

What should make everyone nervous is that the chief problem they had with BE-4, per ULA's CEO, was the turbopumps. And that was as recent as late 2019, I think. Supposedly they've got it "ironed out", but color me skeptical. Those things are notoriously difficult to design properly, and theirs are supposedly 75,000 hp units. I foresee at least one engine failure in flight in their future.
CanyonAg77
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Thanks! I'd just appreciate it if you guys who are really into it, remember that not all of us are that far down the rabbit hole. Acronyms are great, an occasional spelling out helps us old farts out.

And anytime people over-acronym, I drag out the old cigarette ad

PJYoung
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TexAgs91
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lead said:

Quote:

You have BO at least CLAIMING they'll have a heavy lifter flying next year. You have spacex with a heavy lifter already flying now. You have ULA with a smaller lift, but high energy upper stage ready to go.... why are we still not exploring earth orbit rendezvous for Orion? EOR, even if you give ULA 2 billion to build an adapter and set a centaur up for the lunar injection burn, and SpaceX 2 billion to man rate the Falcon Heavy( or hell, don't man rate heavy.... put the orion on heavy empty, rendezvous a dragon with it in orbit, no man rating required), plus pay for an Orion and the 4-6 launches necessary to set it all up with an unmanned test flight and a manned circumlunar flight, you STILL are cheaper than paying for two SLS flights to donthe same thing.

"Freedom is never more than one election away from extinction"
Fight! Fight! Fight!
nortex97
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This would also mitigate risk quite a bit, as all of that crap wouldn't be at risk of a sudden RUD in any given launch. Even if all of the people (heaven forbid) blow up on a launch all of the rest would be safely waiting in orbit for the next crew.
double aught
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Pretty sure it'd be waiting up there a long time if that happened.
Ag_of_08
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Yes 68 not 60. Brain fart sorry
Ag_of_08
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It would delay it a lot, but the orion may at least be able to stay in orbit, and the use of an uncrewed launch means even with an accident on the crewed launch,(given either crewed starliner or crewed dream chaser comes online) an alternate launch system could be used to continue.

If a centaur is used without modification, it would have to launch reasonably close to the TLI burn, cryogenic tanks tend to suffer boil off. The good thing is, they can probably launch to rendezvous with it if they're careful, and the orion could be used to maneuver away from the stage if a guidance failure or other issue occurred.

It's a much more complicated thing than it sounds like, but aside from the adapting of Orion to the falcon heavy, and the docking adapter on the centaur, there really shouldn't be a lot of new hardware developed. All the other spacecraft involved should already have the capability , it's just a matter of developing the maneuvering programming and making it happen. Once the TLI( trans lunar injection)burn is made and centaur is cut loose and cleared, it should be the same set of maneuvers no matter the launch mode.

I wish I had more knowledge of the physics behind it... the observed performance of the stages points towards it working, the Sim stuff shows it to work out..... I have to wonder if I'm right.

The problem right now is that Lockheed has control of rj/ad, which builds every engine involved in orion and sls. There's no way they're going to let the cash cow go down without a fight.
nortex97
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I agree with you but it is complicated. Bridenstine over a year ago hinted at the option quite directly, after all. Yet, to those who don't follow this stuff it is complicated to consider;



Here's a very recent analysis some guy did; spoiler, he doesn't think it works.



The real problem is the Orion started out as...something to go to the Kuiper belt for goodness sakes, and then was designed to be enormous relative to what is really needed for a lunar mission, yet here we are building/relying on an enormous/expensive SLS system to get it there as a consequence.
Ag_of_08
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I've watched Tim's and the other video. The second guy fixated heavily on the man rating of the falcon heavy, and the need to orion AND the ICPS on falcon heavy if I remember right. I propose to eliminate the ICPS, and use an on orbit rendezvous with a centaur or suitable upper stage, and to launch the orion uncrewed with no LES weighing it down( which falcon heavy can quite easily.

I think that's the problem most sls alternatives run into, they don't advocate a 3 or 4 launch system, but a 2 launch at max system. Basically his 4 points aren't factors with the three part EOR mission.
nortex97
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The aerodynamics still have to work for FH at vmax. And, the centaur upper version isn't going to be produceable once they toss the tooling now for Vulcan Centaur.

I dunno, ultimately it sure sounds like it won't matter; NASA ain't doing it over the next two years at least (until/unless SLS blows up).

Cool discussion/video;

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/mln27q/spacex_and_failure_philosophy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
PJYoung
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Blue Origin should launch in about 25 minutes or so.

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