NavyAg95 said:

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The SpaceX's bid is predicated on Starship working. NASA will go with the traditional/proven technology approach. Just too much risk for the time frame we are trying to achieve.

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No, NASA will go with what the political forces tell them to.

Which still ****s over SpaceX, but the key here is that while this isn't good optically, the decision was made before this.

While the Starship moon lander will be a completely different vehicle, it will still be dependent on Starship tankers for refueling. They have to get this right for the moon lander to be viable.

The two are really only vaguely related. I HIGHLY doubt it will effect that long term.

NavyAg95 said:

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While the Starship moon lander will be a completely different vehicle, it will still be dependent on Starship tankers for refueling. They have to get this right for the moon lander to be viable.

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The starship itself can fly just fine though, it's the landing part that has proven...iffy.

What are the limitations for private space flight? I mean if SpaceX just keeps pushing ahead and do private moon trips etc. what is stopping them from doing that?

NavyAg95 said:

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Don't get me wrong. I'm a huge fan. I think their approach is the right one for the future but they have a lot of developmental hurdles to get through before this is a viable and reliable system. NASA's Artimis program will go forth utilizing proven but more expensive technology.

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Go forth? Would mean it had to go ANYWHERE, which the SLS is still shakey on(and underpoweredfor the mission), Orion has done one flight test, and they have no clue on a lander beyond propositions.

nortex97 said:

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Maximus_Meridius said:

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NavyAg95 said:

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The SpaceX's bid is predicated on Starship working. NASA will go with the traditional/proven technology approach. Just too much risk for the time frame we are trying to achieve.

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No, NASA will go with what the political forces tell them to.

Which still ****s over SpaceX, but the key here is that while this isn't good optically, the decision was made before this.

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In a perfect world, Elon gets miffed at losing the contract, and decides to build Moonship anyway, without Nasa oversight/requirements/delays, just to prove he can, then gets there 3 years before team bloated bureaucracy, and makes money off of it building a commercial moon base and selling tickets/rides on a tesla on the moon.

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LOL. Artemis isn't going anywhere. Elon could cut SpaceX's development rate in HALF and they would still beat that bureaucratic wet dream by a decade.

And that is just depressing when you think about it...

AgBQ-00 said:

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What are the limitations for private space flight? I mean if SpaceX just keeps pushing ahead and do private moon trips etc. what is stopping them from doing that?

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The limitations are really just about launch permissions/airspace. SpaceX goals are really to colonize mars, with thousands of starships going during each window (every 2 or 3 years).

Yes, it's all pretty crazy in it's scale, but those are the real goals, which is why they're also considering (apparently) a Starship V2.0 that would have double the diameter (quadruple the volume). Setting up a dinky commercial lunar base would seem...childs play by comparison.

I think there's some international treaties that prevent private moon development (and probably also apply to Mars etc) but I doubt that's a real impediment.

nortex97 said:

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The first real question I have, well, now that we know starhopper is ok, is whether it was a manual termination or if it auto-destructed itself.

Next question, as Elon referred above, is what happened with the relight this time? I think they were planning to light all 3 but why do they struggle so much with these raptors right now (changing them out, failure during static fires, repeated issues on relight obviously, failure to throttle to commands etc.)?

This is a very exotic/advanced engine, early in it's flight development yes, but I'd assume they have done a lot of firings on the ground and have made quite a few of these yet they seem highly unreliable.

I really hope the debris is limited to the areas they told the FAA it might be. Also, we criticize the landing etc. but the starships have come closer to landing, and a whole lot more flight time, than the ridiculous SLS has!

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Not to toot my own horn, but I did say a few pages ago that Raptor was kicking their butt. And there's no shame in that, Raptor is the first full-flow staged combustion engine (FFSC) to fly. Ever. Not even Aerojet-Rocketdyne (who I actually have some respect for...or had, maybe) has gotten one airborne. The Russians only got one on the test stand. It is way more mechanically complex, with a lot more moving components than the Merlin.

nortex97 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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What are the limitations for private space flight? I mean if SpaceX just keeps pushing ahead and do private moon trips etc. what is stopping them from doing that?

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The limitations are really just about launch permissions/airspace. SpaceX goals are really to colonize mars, with thousands of starships going during each window (every 2 or 3 years).

Yes, it's all pretty crazy in it's scale, but those are the real goals, which is why they're also considering (apparently) a Starship V2.0 that would have double the diameter (quadruple the volume). Setting up a dinky commercial lunar base would seem...childs play by comparison.

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I really hope I live to see the days we step back on the moon and then see humans step foot on Mars. I will never get to go but knowing that humanity is back to exploration mode will be awesome!

I don't have Twitter but just saw a screenshot. Elon investing in Cameron county schools this morning??? Good timing.

ETA.

SN11

Is that the explosion caught on radar?

ETA just saw the NWS tweet.

Centerpole90 said:

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SN11

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Wow, that radar image is over the middle of the Lower Laguna Madre bay well away from Boca Chica which is on the very south tip of Padre Island, close to the border.

If that is the real radar return, it's pretty far north of the launch site.

That radar echo is strange. It's way north of Port Isabel.

Mathguy64 said:

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That radar echo is strange. It's way north of Port Isabel.

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Maybe the plume floated north after the explosion?

It didn't blow up too far from the launch pad, that is probably mostly the LOX-methane cloud remnant drifting north afterward (still warm).

I think it's the heat signature but caught after it rode the prevailing (currently brisk) SE wind.

What ^nortex said.

I'll say what's been on my mind after SN9 and the SLS Green Run:

SpaceX should fly a little less. NASA should fly a lot more.

Ag87H2O said:

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Centerpole90 said:

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SN11

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Wow, that radar image is over the middle of the Lower Laguna Madre bay well away from Boca Chica which is on the very south tip of Padre Island, close to the border.

If that is the real radar return, it's pretty far north of the launch site.

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No way that is the explosion. If anything, it is heat/pressure wave that shifted north from the southern winds. They were blowing strong this morning.

Quote:

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No way that is the explosion. If anything, it is heat/pressure wave that shifted north from the southern winds. They were blowing strong this morning.

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Could it simply be the cloud of smoke? Grass fires sometimes show up on radar.

Little Bear fire, New Mexico

AgBQ-00 said:

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Just strange all around. How quick do you think for SN15

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My first thought is Elon wanted to get an orbital flight in by July 1st but I'm guessing that's a good target date for SN15 now if the FAA has anything to do with it.

I've heard from some inside sources that the Raptors have been significantly reworked and refined for SN15 and beyond, they're expecting significant improvement.

Not from a source: I'm not sure they particularly cared too much about SN11, the Raptor design was already obsolete as was the Starship design. I'm sure the data was helpful as always but it almost had the feel of a "meh let's go ahead and do it" test.

SN15 and BN2 should be the big tests of flight-ready hardware and software.

I get a similar impression. If SN11 worked, great, but it was still mostly the same hardware from 8-10. There's just so many things to address that I don't think they solve it without design iterations, of which 15 is the largest delta between versions - hence the skipping 12, 13, 14.

NASA spaceflight stream guys mentioned that this one hurt but I disagree. I think 10 hurt simply because it was so close but 15 is where they will really start to sweat.

However they've come so far. Summer seems impossible but never say never with these guys.

So do you hear the booms out in your neck of the woods? I'd ask the inlaws, but I'm afraid they would be like, "What noise?"

Elon is trying to roll SN15 to the pad in a few days! Let's see if the FAA gives them too much grief.

Wow

Several thousand

SPI-FlatsCatter 84 said:

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Wow

Several thousand

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That explains giving 20 million to Cameron County and 10 million to Brownsville to revitalize downtown.

Negative. Anything short of a sonic boom would be hard pressed to reach.

Now, your in-laws; I have many times heard the booms from Louie's summer fireworks displays across the water to their locale.

The kid leaves for college in a few months. Maybe I can move home and work for Elon?

PJYoung said:

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SPI-FlatsCatter 84 said:

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Wow
Several thousand

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That explains giving 20 million to Cameron County and 10 million to Brownsville to revitalize downtown.

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Well, that and the falling debris...

CanyonAg77 said:

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PJYoung said:

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SPI-FlatsCatter 84 said:

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Wow
Several thousand

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That explains giving 20 million to Cameron County and 10 million to Brownsville to revitalize downtown.

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Well, that and the falling debris...

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I was at the launch drone fishing and can say no less than 5 SpaceX employees were combing the jetties for debris after the launch.

They are still here...

Also, people posted online that they have debris but none landed here at SPI that I saw. Nothing hit the land or the water that I could hear.

I saw pics of soft "insulation" or material that landed far away, but If soft debris did in fact make it that far, no dense material landed near us...which is surprising.