Might have a static fire in less than 10 min of SN11.

Looks like it was a start-immediate abort. So I'd say we're definitely not flying tomorrow, looks like we're going to see yet another Raptor change.

Lots of interesting updates here...
Starship SN11 prepares to fly as SpaceX pushes for Orbital flight this summer

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Following SN11's flight, SpaceX will move on to SN15, 16, and 17, alongside testing with Super Heavy prototypes BN1 and BN2, before shooting for an orbital launch with SN20 and BN3. In typical SpaceX-style, that orbital launch has an astonishing and unlikely "by July 1" target. At the very least, this target portrays SpaceX's Starship drive to push the vehicle into operation.

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Quote:

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BN1 is not expected to fly. Instead, it will be stacked and rolled to the Starship suborbital pad for ground testing, including a potential Static Fire test. This will provide vital data ahead of the test flight of BN2, of which sections have already been spotted waiting for stacking.

The BN1 test campaign is expected to occur before SN15 goes to the pad for its test flight.

Once SN15 enters its pad flow, this will mark the start of what is likely to be a new test campaign involving three Starships, with SN16 and SN17 joining.

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Quote:

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Notably, the information seen by NASASpaceflight and always subject to change also adds a fascinating note about the first orbital flight, which is cited as involving Super Heavy BN3 and Starship SN20, "with a goal to get to orbit by July 1".

Notably, the information seen by NASASpaceflight and always subject to change also adds a fascinating note about the first orbital flight, which is cited as involving Super Heavy BN3 and Starship SN20, "with a goal to get to orbit by July 1".

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Quote:

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The aforementioned information also noted that the Orbital Launch Pad would indeed be capable of catching the booster in lieu of having landing legs, as previously noted by Elon on social media. This would involve catcher arms on the Integration Tower. This is unlikely to be ready in time for BN3's flight, if SpaceX continues to target BN3 for the orbital mission, given plans are continually changing at SpaceX Boca Chica.

Despite the impressive construction pace at the launch site, being ready for a BN3/SN20 launch "by July 1" can be all-but ruled out. However, with the Integration Tower potentially a week or so away from rising out of the ground, the potential of an orbital mission later this year is now becoming almost a certainty.

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TexAgs91 said:

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Lots of interesting updates here...
Starship SN11 prepares to fly as SpaceX pushes for Orbital flight this summer

Quote:

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Following SN11's flight, SpaceX will move on to SN15, 16, and 17, alongside testing with Super Heavy prototypes BN1 and BN2, before shooting for an orbital launch with SN20 and BN3. In typical SpaceX-style, that orbital launch has an astonishing and unlikely "by July 1" target. At the very least, this target portrays SpaceX's Starship drive to push the vehicle into operation.

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Quote:

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BN1 is not expected to fly. Instead, it will be stacked and rolled to the Starship suborbital pad for ground testing, including a potential Static Fire test. This will provide vital data ahead of the test flight of BN2, of which sections have already been spotted waiting for stacking.

The BN1 test campaign is expected to occur before SN15 goes to the pad for its test flight.

Once SN15 enters its pad flow, this will mark the start of what is likely to be a new test campaign involving three Starships, with SN16 and SN17 joining.

---

Quote:

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Notably, the information seen by NASASpaceflight and always subject to change also adds a fascinating note about the first orbital flight, which is cited as involving Super Heavy BN3 and Starship SN20, "with a goal to get to orbit by July 1".

Notably, the information seen by NASASpaceflight and always subject to change also adds a fascinating note about the first orbital flight, which is cited as involving Super Heavy BN3 and Starship SN20, "with a goal to get to orbit by July 1".

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Quote:

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The aforementioned information also noted that the Orbital Launch Pad would indeed be capable of catching the booster in lieu of having landing legs, as previously noted by Elon on social media. This would involve catcher arms on the Integration Tower. This is unlikely to be ready in time for BN3's flight, if SpaceX continues to target BN3 for the orbital mission, given plans are continually changing at SpaceX Boca Chica.

Despite the impressive construction pace at the launch site, being ready for a BN3/SN20 launch "by July 1" can be all-but ruled out. However, with the Integration Tower potentially a week or so away from rising out of the ground, the potential of an orbital mission later this year is now becoming almost a certainty.

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Just let it bell flop onto a giant foam pit!

No go for test fire today, apparently another instant/last second abort, with engine change to follow (so no launch tomorrow).

TexAgs91 said:

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Here's the Starship stacked on top of a BN3 sized booster with a 747 for size comparison...

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For those of you familiar with SPI, the combined Starship will be as tall as The Pearl

Oh it's going to be a heck of a site.

Possibly by late June, stacked:

Quote:

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NASASpaceflight reports that SpaceX wants to begin orbital Starship launch attempts as early as July 1st, 2021, less than four months from now.

In no uncertain terms, this is an internal target, meaning that it's far likelier than not that SpaceX's first orbital Starship launch attempt wont happen in July. Nevertheless, the target's existence implies that SpaceX sees a real, viable path however narrow to launching Starship into orbit for the first time just four months from now.

Put a different way, SpaceX believes it has six months of margin to get through preliminary Super Heavy booster testing (possibly including one or several hops), qualify an upgraded Starship design (SN15 onwards), roughly complete an orbital launch complex, and deliver around two-dozen orbit-capable Raptor engines before the end of the year. While unclear, it's also possible that the milestone would require SpaceX to qualify and ship the first flightworthy Raptor Vacuum engines another major challenge.

On its own, completing any one of those major feats of engineering would be impressive. Completing all of them simultaneously even if the effort suffers more than five months of delays would be nothing short of extraordinary. As such, it's fair to assume that SpaceX will fall well short of its incredibly ambitious development schedule, even if the company almost invariably does what it sets out to do.

In this case, that means that there is a very real chance that Starship reaches orbit before the end of 2021, achieving a target that both SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and COO/President Gwynne Shotwell have reiterated within the last several months.

Even after reaching orbit for the first time, SpaceX will likely continue Starship development largely unchanged, treating the orbital regime as just another sandbox to test and refine Starship prototypes with. Given all the extraordinary problems SpaceX will need to solve to reach orbit, there's also a decent chance that Starship or Super Heavy's first orbital launch attempt will fail. If the launch is initially successfully, it's just as likely that Super Heavy will fail its first hypersonic launch and landing attempt.

If Starship itself reaches orbit in one piece, any number of issues could kill the vehicle in space. If it survives long enough complete a 90-minute orbit and line up for reentry, descent, and landing, Starship's first orbital-velocity atmospheric reentry one of the biggest challenges in aerospace engineering could easily destroy the spacecraft. If Starship somehow makes it through reentry on its first try, the stresses of orbital spaceflight and that reentry could prevent its Raptor engines from performing nominally during its powered flip maneuver and landing burn.

This is all to say that even as SpaceX sets its sights on orbital flight, the trajectory is still a continuation of an ongoing test program and iterative development process. While orbit-capable Starships will likely be much more expensive than their suborbital brethren, the differences are small enough that SpaceX will undoubtedly continue to push the envelope and risk losing prototypes to uncover and fix bugs and design flaws as early as possible.

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Sounds like it could happen Friday.

I know Elon Musk reads this thread so this is a request to launch SN15 or later on May 21st when I'll be at SPI.

nortex97 said:

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That's pretty cool. So is this:

Two pretty serious heavy lift vehicles sitting in port ready to be unloaded and re-used, again.

Reminder, **** is getting real this year;

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Musk is an extremely effective leader. That's undeniable. The growth of Tesla and SpaceX looks like a rare fluke except both are led by the same person.
His ability to drive an organization to produce is not in doubt. I am a critic of his reported lack of empathy, and some of his impractical ideas, but he does get things done.

Well, ok, no issue with your take on that stuff, I dunno what his empathy level is, and again I think he's sort of a nut. I do think it's pertinent to reference what he himself said he is; a very good engineer who is also excellent at identifying good/great engineers and getting them to work together as a team.

That's my recollection of what he said on a podcast with a car guy recently (not exact), but it sounds about correct. The rare entrepreneur-genius-engineer-leader class of folks is indeed small, and it's unsurprising he'd as such have quirks/flaws that manifest in odd ways.

He's weird as hell. Any normal human is at a minimum put off by him, if not totally out of sync with him. I'm assuming we're just needing a Musk compatibility upgrade that's not available to our model number yet.

Decay said:

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He's weird as hell. Any normal human is at a minimum put off by him, if not totally out of sync with him. I'm assuming we're just needing a Musk compatibility upgrade that's not available to our model number yet.

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Geniuses operate at a level few of us can understand. I worked closely with one and it is hard. Wicked smart, super arrogant, multi multi millionaire. But personal relationships were never his strong suit. I would not trade his money for his life. But imagine the advances we have had over the years because of people like that! Steve Jobs comes to mind.

Is it sad for me, a non genius, to understand him? I get it and what he is doing, pure common sense. That said, his "ship" is Steve Job's inner circle times ten.

fyi: I updated my post above to include Kyle Field with Starship/BN3 for size comparison

TexAgs91 said:

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fyi: I updated my post above to include Kyle Field with Starship/BN3 for size comparison

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Incredible! My five year old remembered how big Kyle Field was from his last visit and he was shocked at how tall the rocket is in that picture... As am I. Very nice visualization!

Looks like NASA is going for an Artemis I hot fire today at 2 CDT.

nortex97 said:

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Well, ok, no issue with your take on that stuff, I dunno what his empathy level is, and again I think he's sort of a nut. I do think it's pertinent to reference what he himself said he is; a very good engineer who is also excellent at identifying good/great engineers and getting them to work together as a team.

That's my recollection of what he said on a podcast with a car guy recently (not exact), but it sounds about correct. The rare entrepreneur-genius-engineer-leader class of folks is indeed small, and it's unsurprising he'd as such have quirks/flaws that manifest in odd ways.

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I believe I remember Musk saying that he expects every member of his companies to be as driven as he is, which is why he has the reputation of working people into the ground and having a poor work/home balance. I believe SpaceX has a pretty high turnover rate, which probably explains why there are so many "low payload" startup launch companies that are run/staffed by former SpaceX guys (Firefly, Relativity, and a few others come to mind). On the one hand...it's hard to argue with the results of what SpaceX has accomplished. On the other, though, I wonder about the longevity of the company should they lose someone like Shotwell, or if (God forbid) something happens to Musk.

That's fair. What makes Musk somewhat unique as a business executive (vs. for instance Jobs/the guy who ran Zenith or Andrew Carnegie for instance), in my opinion is still his focus on the engineering side/team. He has that background, and focus which is different from the business folks in industrial giants from American history (who of course were very good at hiring/selecting/driving teams working for them, and quite demanding as well).

Here's a link to an article about the Munro interview.

Anyone who names their kid something bizarre like Musk did immediately sets off my 'this guy's a little off/weirdo' radar, but I again think it works out well for them. He keeps the key leaders he needs to, imho, like Tom Mueller etc. (yes he recently retired but he completed the key projects Musk really identified/needed him to).

Yes, as well, SpaceX would probably become a disaster in waiting if something terrible happened to him. I don't want to see that at all.

I know quite a few former SpaceX employees and they've said the same. He's inspiring but regularly works 16-20 hours/day. For most it's a place to put up with for a few years to have it on your resume and it's exciting work but they end up ground into a pulp.

nortex97 said:

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Anyone who names their kid something bizarre like Musk did immediately sets off my 'this guy's a little off/weirdo' radar, but I again think it works out well for them. He keeps the key leaders he needs to, imho, like Tom Mueller etc. (yes he recently retired but he completed the key projects Musk really identified/needed him to).

Yes, as well, SpaceX would probably become a disaster in waiting if something terrible happened to him. I don't want to see that at all.

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And see, that's the part that scares me. Yeah, Musk is absolutely brilliant at identifying the talent, but nobody has a perfect batting average. What if "the guy" (or gal, not trying to be sexist) that he picked to be the new "Mueller" turns out to not be up to the level they thought/need? What if one of the engineers you ground to a pulp that left would've done better?

Right now, I firmly believe the Raptor is kicking their butts, as the SN11 aborted static fire (which I will now call FARTs - Fire And Rapid Termination) only further supported. Yes, the header fuel pressure is probably the leading cause of failure on the 2.5 crash landings (let's give 10 some credit), but that engine still ain't where it needs to be. It's just one of those things that I wonder if there's a design flaw that they might have learned earlier that got lost in "transition" of a turnover between engineers. Or if someone now gone would have had an idea that worked better.

I think a good analogy right now is that SpaceX is built like a 400m relay team, but I think at some point Musk is going to have realize that he needs to build something more like a marathon team if he wants sustainable success all the way to Mars. Then again, what do I know? The man's gotten this far, who am I to say what he should do?

A rather depressing topic is to ask what you think Musk has done to "plan" for an untimely demise to his person. You have to think he's got something figured out, but my guess is SpaceX would get bought out by Boeing/Lockheed/Northrop and then so long spaceflight advancement...

So pessimistic

To each his own, but I see it as more like a law firm; they know they'll burn thru 80 percent or more of their young associates, but that works to the partners advantage long term, hence the 'system.'

I don't know the stats at all but not worried about junior/mid level engineers working elsewhere after starting at SpaceX. It is what it is.

Funny, SpaceX bid on a contract with Starship (they lost).

Quote:

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In a routine source selection statement published by NASA on March 11th, reporter Jeff Foust was first to catch on to some oddities included in the brief. Notably, SpaceX was one of four companies to submit a viable proposal and enter the competition not exactly shocking behavior. However, in the statement, the NASA contracting officer included information heavily implying that SpaceX didn't propose to launch TROPICS on its proven workhorse Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy rockets.

As Foust went on to note, the "weaknesses" raised to explain why SpaceX wasn't chosen (namely an unproven, unlicensed launch vehicle with low schedule certainty) meshed suspiciously well with SpaceX's next-generation Starship rocket. A source familiar with NASA launch procurement has now confirmed to Teslarati that SpaceX did, in fact, bid Starship to launch the TROPICS constellation.

Starship is currently in the early to middle stages of development, only recently graduated beyond short hop tests, and has yet to secure an orbital launch license from the FAA. While SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently confirmed the company's ambition to launch Starship on its first orbital mission(s) as early as July 2021, it's safe to say that there is a huge amount of uncertainty in that schedule.

On the scale of Starship's payload target of 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit (LEO), the TROPICS constellation is quite literally a rounding error. Assuming three separate launches are a fundamental requirement for the constellation, each Starship a rocket substantially larger than a 737 passenger jet would be carrying the equivalent of a single briefcase containing two shoebox-sized satellites.

While the source was unable to provide the specific price of the offer, they confirmed that SpaceX bid Starship and Super Heavy not a single-stage-to-orbit Starship configuration as some later speculated. It's still unclear if SpaceX intended to perform three separate launches or if Starship would have been capable of delivering the entire constellation in a single launch with the huge performance margins offer by such a tiny payload.

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My suspicion is this was basically a practice run for their bid team. Funny, though, either way.

Tanks are loaded for SLS fire.

https://www.nasa.gov/live/

Window started at 2 PM central but not sure when they will actually fire.

Live stream slated for 2:45 CST now. Should be an awesome show (if exorbitantly expensive).

I have such mixed emotions about this test. I love space stuff so I hope it goes well but at the same time it just seems to make such little sense.

bthotugigem05 said:

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I have such mixed emotions about this test. I love space stuff so I hope it goes well but at the same time it just seems to make such little sense.

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Same. I think it's because I know I'm helping to foot the bill here...

T-9ish minutes

3:37ish fire time