The Russians? No. That ship sailed long ago, they'll be lucky to maintain a manned program in the next 20 years.

The Chinese? If we don't get off our asses the Chinese will be taking selfies with the Apollo landers while we're arguing over which branch of Lockheed or Boeing needs a bigger paycheck.

Bingo.

Some great analysis that I agree with going on here...

I'm just glad Starship was redesigned to be more pointy. Seems more spaceshipy to me this way

FIDO*98* said:

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I'm just glad Starship was redesigned to be more pointy. Seems more spaceshipy to me this way

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I dunno, I loved the comedy of a dented-up silo flying around.

FIDO*98* said:

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I'm just glad Starship was redesigned to be more pointy. Seems more spaceshipy to me this way

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This confused me.. are you talking about a redesign, or when they were doing hover tests without the nosecone?

Pretty sure this is steel not iron

aTmAg said:

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FIDO*98* said:

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I'm just glad Starship was redesigned to be more pointy. Seems more spaceshipy to me this way

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This confused me.. are you talking about a redesign, or when they were doing hover tests without the nosecone?

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https://www.reddit.com/r/StarshipDevelopment/comments/lhtsw7/elon_made_starship_more_pointy_because_of_sacha/

^
This. I love that scene in the Dictator and busted out laughing when I heard Musk on JRE

NASA moves from SLS to commercial launch for Europa mission, saving up to $1.5 Billion;

Quote:

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WASHINGTON NASA is no longer considering launching the Europa Clipper mission on the Space Launch System, deciding instead to launch the spacecraft on a commercial rocket it will procure in the next year.

During a Feb. 10 presentation at a meeting of NASA's Outer Planets Assessment Group (OPAG), leaders of the Europa Clipper project said the agency recently decided to consider only commercial launch vehicles for the mission, and no longer support a launch of the spacecraft on the SLS.

"We now have clarity on the launch vehicle path and launch date," Robert Pappalardo, project scientist for Europa Clipper at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said. That clarity came in the form of a Jan. 25 memo from NASA's Planetary Missions Program Office to "immediately cease efforts to maintain SLS compatibility" and move forward with a commercial launch vehicle, or CLV, he said.

Congress had directed NASA for several years to launch Europa Clipper on SLS, including provisions to that effect in annual spending bills. NASA, though, requested the flexibility to procure an alternative launch vehicle, arguing it needed the SLS to support its Artemis human lunar exploration program and claiming that a commercial vehicle could save NASA as much as $1.5 billion.

The project continued to support both launch options, but warned doing so would become increasingly complex and expensive. A complicating factor emerged in August, when NASA disclosed "potential hardware compatibility issues" between the spacecraft and SLS.

NASA got the relief it sought in the fiscal year 2021 appropriations bill enacted in December, which allowed NASA to use an alternative to the SLS if the agency determined the vehicle was not available or if the hardware compatibility issue could not be resolved. In January, NASA issued a "sources sought" solicitation for commercial launch options for the mission "in anticipation of a full and open competition for the acquisition of launch services of the Europa Clipper mission," but did not state that the agency had decided to move ahead with a commercial launch of the mission.

The planned trajectory is the same as outlined in the solicitation, with a launch during a 21-day window in October 2024, with the spacecraft arriving at Jupiter in April 2030. The Mars Earth Gravity Assist, or MEGA, trajectory includes a flyby of Mars in February 2025 and of Earth in December 2026.

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Still believe some of Elon's tweets leading up to the election caused the cancel culture to attack SpaceX.

Edit: Or the CC are sending him a message to get back in line, perhaps require him to move back to Cali as penance.

oldyella said:

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Still believe some of Elon's tweets leading up to the election caused the cancel culture to attack SpaceX.

Edit: Or the CC are sending him a message to get back in line, perhaps require him to move back to Cali as penance.

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That ship( staying in cali) has sailed.

He puased people off, but they've been after him for years. He's done a really good job of being a typical libertarian.... thebluberala and the Republicans neither one like all of his politics. The liberals especially are hell bent on finding a way to make him evil...

I still think this is revenge for the regulations he apparently spear headed a move to change.

Well, except he sells all of the cars Tesla can make, yet congress wants to figure out a way to subsidize it again by 7500 bucks a car. Which is fine by me, really, whatever.

I don't know why it makes economic/policy/fiscal sense but it is more profit for Tesla/Elon which he'll likely roll substantially into spacex. I think outside of carbon credit sales to other auto makers they are basically just cash flow neutral from operations, so this is going to lead to a basic price increase and more profit, imho.

Spacex of course doesn't report financials but I am curious if they are cash flow positive on F9 launches nowadays. Starlink has to be a cash bonfire right now, but the hope is with roll out they make big money shortly/in 2022.

Separately, Perseverance should be on Mars in about 5 days, hopefully some good video of that happens/is released.

Next SLS test is week of Feb 21.

I don't blame him for making the profit when he can... better than what Chevy is doing with it.

I'm sure starlink is costing them out the arse, but I think it will be profitable in the end.... I look for it to split.off into an independent company at some point as well.

I really wonder what will happen if we see another green run failure, or an em-1 failure. Em-1 having an IFA could change the whole game 100%

Ag_of_08 said:

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I don't blame him for making the profit when he can... better than what Chevy is doing with it.

I'm sure starlink is costing them out the arse, but I think it will be profitable in the end.... I look for it to split.off into an independent company at some point as well.

I really wonder what will happen if we see another green run failure, or an em-1 failure. Em-1 having an IFA could change the whole game 100%

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I'm highly skeptical that SLS will ever fly.

Another failure on this green run and I'd bet the entire program is axed. That sounds severe, but with the lunar gateway and now Europa clipper getting on commercial launches, it won't be long before the political will behind NASA building rockets completely dries up. Plus Shelby is retiring.

NASA does amazing work outside of launch vehicles. Looking forward to perseverance next week!

The analogy I read that I think is apt is how it originally took government sponsorship/funding/ships to get across the Atlantic etc., but eventually private enterprise picked up the tab themselves in the interest of profits and made it safer/cheaper etc.

Gross oversimplification, yes, but we are past needing NASA to build the follow on to Saturn V, space shuttle etc. It shouldn't be a partisan issue to look at SLS and say "Do we really need to launch all of this on one rocket at the same time or is there a better/cheaper way to do it?"

If I were to put on my Democrat-thinker-what-if hat, I'd look at SLS and say "Is this really good for the environment, or a step backward in technology, re-usability, and expense/risk per launch?" If they want bipartisan funding for nasa (LOL @ wanting anything bipartisan, yes) to do more environmental research, saving money on SLS by competing the launch stuff commercially for Artemis makes a lot of sense. Especially after already saying so about Europa mission and lunar gateway.

Malachi Constant said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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I don't blame him for making the profit when he can... better than what Chevy is doing with it.

I'm sure starlink is costing them out the arse, but I think it will be profitable in the end.... I look for it to split.off into an independent company at some point as well.

I really wonder what will happen if we see another green run failure, or an em-1 failure. Em-1 having an IFA could change the whole game 100%

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I'm highly skeptical that SLS will ever fly.

Another failure on this green run and I'd bet the entire program is axed. That sounds severe, but with the lunar gateway and now Europa clipper getting on commercial launches, it won't be long before the political will behind NASA building rockets completely dries up. Plus Shelby is retiring.

NASA does amazing work outside of launch vehicles. Looking forward to perseverance next week!

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I agree whole heartedly, although I don't see the green run failing. They will do everything but let it take the test stand out to finish it I think.

If you want to compare NASA versus SpaceX look no closer than this comparison.

NASA test stand versus SpaceX test stand.

In NASA's defense that's the a-1/2 stand originally built to test the Saturn V. That's one of the few things they've re-used.

Ag_of_08 said:

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In NASA's defense that's the a-1/2 stand originally built to test the Saturn V. That's one of the few things they've re-used.

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Oh I know. And I'm being unfair in that SpaceX pic as well. It's really not a full power static Raptor test stand. But still the two approaches to test equipment is radically different. NASA is "design once and never iterate. Spend billions on the design". SpaceX is "test cheap, test often and iterate the hell out of it. Test models are cheap. "

And that's a brand new engine that's purpose built, and at maturity will be the state of the art, versus and engine we spent decades launching successfully...not similar engines, THESE engines, and have spent BILLIONS to get to that price tag....

Government money, like health care charges and insurance payments, isn't real $$

I fear that one thing that NASA has in it's back pocket is the FAA. Space X can get good enough where they can land 50 of these in a row, but the FAA could always deny them permits for human travel as long as they don't have an abort system.

Then he'll leave. I hate to say it, but at some point, the national security powers that be are going to override the pettiness of the FAA and NASA, and tell them to let him fly before he packs his crap up and goes to another country with them.

Good lord we built the Russians a nodule for their space station, and propped their program up for decades to keep their scientists from bailing, could you imagine the fallout if Musk or the SpaceX team looked at India and said "hey, yall want to go to mars right, cause apparently the US does not...."

They'll play petty, but this is already costing them.good will and political points with the public. Biden was seen as an anti space goon, even by his own supporters, coming in to this, all he needs is Musk, who is also about to have his own ISP, pissed off publicly blasting the admin and threatening to take his toys and go play, because they won't let him fly.

Effing with the actual richest dude in the country, who even has his own internet provider, is....difficult

Ag_of_08 said:

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Then he'll leave. I hate to say it, but at some point, the national security powers that be are going to override the pettiness of the FAA and NASA, and tell them to let him fly before he packs his crap up and goes to another country with them.

Good lord we built the Russians a nodule for their space station, and propped their program up for decades to keep their scientists from bailing, could you imagine the fallout if Musk or the SpaceX team looked at India and said "hey, yall want to go to mars right, cause apparently the US does not...."

They'll play petty, but this is already costing them.good will and political points with the public. Biden was seen as an anti space goon, even by his own supporters, coming in to this, all he needs is Musk, who is also about to have his own ISP, piased off publicly blasting the admin and threatening to take his toys and go play, because they won't let him fly.

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The military is already served pretty well enough by Falcon 9 and FH. While they would be all over cargo launches for $2M each, they probably couldn't care less about manned starships or missions to moon/mars. I don't seen them trying to override any of that.

And I think Biden could easily ITAR the crap out of SpaceX and not let them export any of their technology.

SIAP and I didn't know where else to put this, but it's a screen grab I took from an ISS video that was pulled from a couple of years back, but someone had a bootleg copy of it and this blue sprite is utterly astonishing.

Bregxit said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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In NASA's defense that's the a-1/2 stand originally built to test the Saturn V. That's one of the few things they've re-used.

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Oh I know. And I'm being unfair in that SpaceX pic as well. It's really not a full power static Raptor test stand. But still the two approaches to test equipment is radically different. NASA is "design once and never iterate. Spend billions on the design". SpaceX is "test cheap, test often and iterate the hell out of it. Test models are cheap. "

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The differences are crazy. Consider this...

SpaceX Raptor engines have a cost of about $1MM each with an eventual goal of reusing them once all the landing/recovery stuff is mastered.

SLS RS-25 engines have a price tag of $146MM each and there is no recoverability in the SLS design!!!

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And we drop that $146M in the OOOCEAN!

It's amazing how inefficient NASA is.

Or maybe it's the reverse, it's amazing how efficient SpaceX is.

bmks270 said:

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It's amazing how inefficient NASA is.

Or maybe it's the reverse, it's amazing how efficient SpaceX is.

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Mixture of both.

aTmAg said:

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bmks270 said:

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It's amazing how inefficient NASA is.

Or maybe it's the reverse, it's amazing how efficient SpaceX is.

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Mixture of both.

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And people want to hand over healthcare to government. Yikes.

bmks270 said:

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aTmAg said:

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bmks270 said:

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It's amazing how inefficient NASA is.

Or maybe it's the reverse, it's amazing how efficient SpaceX is.

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Mixture of both.

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And people want to hand over healthcare to government. Yikes.

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Blue parachute of honor for you.

He can itar them all he likes, when the man leaves, and the dozens of brilliant minds he's had working for him leave, and take the knowledge with them, not much they can do.

I'm not talking about the DoD saving money, im talking about them not wanting the engineers to leave and go to other countries with fewer laws.

Ag_of_08 said:

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He can itar them all he likes, when the man leaves, and the dozens of brilliant minds he's had working for him leave, and take the knowledge with them, not much they can do.

I. Not talking about the DoD saving money, im talking about them not wanting the engineers to leave and go to other countries with fewer laws.

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So fundamentally I agree with you. But I don't think Musk has as much power as you think he does. I think at best he could publicly shame the Biden as being anti-science by saying "we had freedom to work under Trump but are being stifled under Biden." But if Biden didn't change anything, then there isn't much that Musk can do.

I don't think most of those employees would leave. Would you leave the US to work in India for the rest of your career? I sure as hell would not. And if I were to leave and tell the Indians what I know, then the USG can come after my ass. Are you thinking the USG just won't go after former Space X employees in this case?

I think a lot of those brilliant minds won't leave the country, they would be offered huge jobs at Lockheed, Boeing, etc. I think Space X would therefore destroy itself if they were to try to leave. The FAA, NASA, etc. know this.