Yeah you guys echo what I'm thinking. Elon's got plenty of leverage and can afford to jettison something that might have question marks.

And I do think there's plenty of room for competition here. Would be great to see another launch provider pick them up (literally I guess!)

Solution to Matthias' wobbly helmet camera issue on his multi-million dollar EMU spacesuit...three dollar wire ties. 😃 pic.twitter.com/bGskeAj1QH

— Chris Bergin - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) March 23, 2022

LOL, I don't think paying $3 for a wire tie is a great price, but for nasa…

Ag_of_08 said:

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First, from a purely financial perspective, the fact they have a spacecraft having serious mechanical issues that endangers both starlink( which is already fighting cost and development schedule issues because starship is being hamstrung so SLS can fly first), AND their customer payloads that they obviously planned to keep using is an issue. Elon is not risk averse, but his, and Shotwell's risks have always been calculated and taken when they NEEDED to be.

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I'd like to think that the FAA delays are truly because of due diligence, but it's very easy to believe that the government organizations are working together to prevent a much more capable spacecraft (starship) from launching from the bloated cost+ government spacecraft (SLS).

Malachi Constant said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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First, from a purely financial perspective, the fact they have a spacecraft having serious mechanical issues that endangers both starlink( which is already fighting cost and development schedule issues because starship is being hamstrung so SLS can fly first), AND their customer payloads that they obviously planned to keep using is an issue. Elon is not risk averse, but his, and Shotwell's risks have always been calculated and taken when they NEEDED to be.

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I'd like to think that the FAA delays are truly because of due diligence, but it's very easy to believe that the government organizations are working together to prevent a much more capable spacecraft (starship) from launching from the bloated cost+ government spacecraft (SLS).

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I think you overestimate how well government organizations work together.

Malachi Constant said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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First, from a purely financial perspective, the fact they have a spacecraft having serious mechanical issues that endangers both starlink( which is already fighting cost and development schedule issues because starship is being hamstrung so SLS can fly first), AND their customer payloads that they obviously planned to keep using is an issue. Elon is not risk averse, but his, and Shotwell's risks have always been calculated and taken when they NEEDED to be.

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I'd like to think that the FAA delays are truly because of due diligence, but it's very easy to believe that the government organizations are working together to prevent a much more capable spacecraft (starship) from launching from the bloated cost+ government spacecraft (SLS).

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And I'd like to believe my employeer didn't just randomly change my schedule to punish me, but you know.

Interesting. (I know the article from the 22nd is posted above, but some comments here are of note, including confidence today that BO is actually going to deliver BE-4's that are flight ready to ULA "soon.")

Two sources also say that Steve Knowles, the New Glenn program manager for Blue Origin, has also left the company. His departure occurred at about the same time as Vilja's. Knowles was well respected inside the company. I don't know what this means for New Glenn's development.

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 24, 2022

To be clear, this is not the end of New Glenn by any means. Blue Origin is committed to the program. But there is a lot of work yet to be done before it launches in a couple of years.

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 24, 2022

This is a thoughtful answer that cuts to the real issue with Artemis and SLS/Orion costs. Congress is willing to pay for development because of jobs, but is there the stomach for expensive operations for the long-term? It's not so clear. pic.twitter.com/U7cHlpNavB

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 25, 2022

Not surprised but seeing it in print is wild. $4.1B per launch!

That budget still blows my mind...

I hope Musk goes straight to the moon on the first launch

Maximus_Meridius said:

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I'm not going to post the actual update, but the FAA has delayed once again to April 29 to " account for further comment review and ongoing interagency consultations."

Lying ****ers…

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Completely predictable. They won't make the Apr 29th date either.

SpaceX won't be ready to launch until May at the earliest.

bthotugigem05 said:

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Malachi Constant said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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First, from a purely financial perspective, the fact they have a spacecraft having serious mechanical issues that endangers both starlink( which is already fighting cost and development schedule issues because starship is being hamstrung so SLS can fly first), AND their customer payloads that they obviously planned to keep using is an issue. Elon is not risk averse, but his, and Shotwell's risks have always been calculated and taken when they NEEDED to be.

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I'd like to think that the FAA delays are truly because of due diligence, but it's very easy to believe that the government organizations are working together to prevent a much more capable spacecraft (starship) from launching from the bloated cost+ government spacecraft (SLS).

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I think you overestimate how well government organizations work together.

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Corruption, incompetence and wasting money are things our govt is good at. This is all three rolled up and stuffed

They could potentially launch a sub orb test of the vehicles they have now if the FAA would let them this is all a stalling tactic to get sls into orbit, combined with some Floridian bribery

Exactly. I'd expect if they had the green light they'd have gladly flown the 420 to its doom.

Decay said:

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Exactly. I'd expect if they had the green light they'd have gladly flown the 420 to its doom.

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And learned a ton! Honestly just getting this thing off the pad is going to be a challenge, they need to stop hamstrining them and let them fly the tests

Ag_of_08 said:

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Decay said:

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Exactly. I'd expect if they had the green light they'd have gladly flown the 420 to its doom.

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And learned a ton! Honestly just getting this thing off the pad is going to be a challenge, they need to stop hamstrining them and let them fly the tests

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Why, again? It has different tanks/header tanks and unreliable engines, per Elon himself. What real data would be gained for future applications vs...well it looks cool and risks blowing up the launch tower and endangering any future approvals?

IMHO there is probably a bunch of good reasons they never loaded it at all with anything but nitrogen, while it sat around for 6 or so months. It is/was a production pathfinder, not a real flight test vehicle.

nortex97 said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Decay said:

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Exactly. I'd expect if they had the green light they'd have gladly flown the 420 to its doom.

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And learned a ton! Honestly just getting this thing off the pad is going to be a challenge, they need to stop hamstrining them and let them fly the tests

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Why, again? It has different tanks/header tanks and unreliable engines, per Elon himself. What real data would be gained for future applications vs...well it looks cool and risks blowing up the launch tower and endangering any future approvals?

IMHO there is probably a bunch of good reasons they never loaded it at all with anything but nitrogen, while it sat around for 6 or so months. It is/was a production pathfinder, not a real flight test vehicle.

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Eh...I think if the FAA had granted approval earlier he might have gone for it. Biggest piece of data I can think of would have come from static fires. You could have gained a lot of resonance shape information, both for the booster (which has only had what...9 engines light at once?) and the full stack. Also would be nice to light something on the OLM just to see if you sustain significant damage (better with a short static fire than finding out you've destroyed the OLM foundation on a full-send launch).

There were definitely things they could have learned with 4/20, but now it appears we will learn with the next stack.

Fair enough, but all of that also assumes that the tank farm/infrastructure was/is ready for such a test fire. In fact, I think they could have gotten approval for a test fire; it's the launch they don't have permission for. All of the tank farm/cryo stuff has been rumored to have had some issues etc.

I think if Elon was ready to launch and government red tape was holding him up, he would've let the world know via Twitter.

For sure if they were incapable, then they would not have launched. But my impression is that they could truck in what they need and don't have to do everything onsite... All that infrastructure is for scaling and cost purposes.

Makes me want to read Liftoff by Eric Berger. I know he had a lot of insight into what early SpaceX looked like and it feels like we're seeing it play out in similar ways again.

nortex97 said:

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Fair enough, but all of that also assumes that the tank farm/infrastructure was/is ready for such a test fire. In fact, I think they could have gotten approval for a test fire; it's the launch they don't have permission for. All of the tank farm/cryo stuff has been rumored to have had some issues etc.

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Totally agree, I was just stating more of a "what good could come from lighting an obsolete Booster 4?" answer.

They've definitely been having issues with the tank farm. I've seen them pull the vertical turbine pumps used for pushing the liquids through a time or two, and I'm sure they've had lots of other ones (methane tank certification was a biggie, if I remember right). Anyone who's been part of a big upgrade or commissioning of a refinery/chem plant unit can probably list off all sorts of the issues you run into trying to get it up and going.

In any case, while they definitely weren't ready, this line of "we need more time for dealing with comments" bull**** from the FAA is infuriating. You've known how many comments you have to deal with for 5 months now, so cut the crap. I try not to be a conspiracy theorist, but I'm having a hard time not falling in line with Ag_of_08's theory that they're being pressured into stalling so SLS can (try to) launch first. I honestly don't think our government is smart enough to actually do something like that, but you can't help but wonder at this point...

Exactly, and the FAA shenanigans are just lazy gov't politics etc. I don't want to get banned for my thoughts on that ongoing series of lies/idiocy...

It could be/have been done with trucks but...that would take a lot of trucks and in truth I bet they know they will need a period of days to tank it up, detank, test etc, and with the V1.0 and 1.5 engines know they would still face a 50/50 odds of even getting them fired up right the first time.

The other audacious part of their plan to me is to wind up doing these launches from a floating oil rig etc. Maybe not as big a deal for methane but that would be a long pipeline, under water, for the LOX, whether from BC (as has been hinted) or via a tanker.

I wish they'd detail some of what the heck they are thinking about, for that. I realize they have a long history of co-opting tech/systems from other industries, but I am curious if any pipeline guys have thoughts about a several mile long methane/LOX line to a rig. (Lot's of them handle methane, I guess mainly as an annoyance? from deep in the sea, of course.)

I think they would get the fuel from tanker ships and have some sort of small tank farm there on/near the platform, or maybe one platform to be the tank farm and the other to be the launch platform.

SpaceX ending production of flagship crew capsule

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/exclusive-spacex-ending-production-flagship-crew-capsule-executive-2022-03-28/?fbclid=IwAR0oUIdMu0R1dMGBbSUrITX8Yaqs6SVaYMNQbpGFcZrAoT8FzgbwuLDTSX0

Quote:

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"We are finishing our final (capsule), but we still are manufacturing components, because we'll be refurbishing," SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told Reuters, confirming the plan to end Crew Dragon manufacturing.

She added that SpaceX would retain the capability to build more capsules if a need arises in the future, but contended that "fleet management is key."

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Given they're publicly having doubts about lack of flame diversion, structural stability, and the lack of testing of the OLM and booster period, I find no reason not to make a sub orbital hop with a full stack.

I maintain they're being pressured to squash it until SLS fails or succeeds regardless of the launch readiness of the vehicle itself. Given the continuing delays, and mounting issues, the Alabama cartel does not want to give Musk any ammunition, especially given the embarrassing loss in the HLS competition. Just an opinion....the FAA approval is bot stopping them from doing an actual orbital test, but there is still valuable engineering data that could be gathered from a short flight with staging, including behavior during a possible lower altitude in flight abort.

That seems to be the prevailing theory, possibly even a second floater rig as a support and logistics storage.

Would the EPA, corps of engineers etc even allow them to run a pipeline from BC? Given they won't even allow fishing piers to be built anymore, I can't see them allowing a pipeline from LOX

Yes, they would.

It'd be another permit and it may cause the EIS to be amended, but it's fairly routine, depending on it's location (BOL and EOL).

Soyuz returning to earth today. Looks like everything going smoothly. The now-former commander of the space station, who was Russian, is also heading down and passed along the "keys", making some nice comments about peace and cooperation in space.

https://www.space.com/nasa-russia-astronauts-space-station-handover

This hints at a May launch readiness window, imho.

First Starship orbital flight will be with Raptor 2 engines, as they are much more capable & reliable. 230 ton or ~500k lb thrust at sea level.

We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 21, 2022

It's worth noting there was absolutely zero Russian war propaganda to be seen in the Soyuz landing zone, or in Moscow Mission Control. I'd take this as further evidence that Russia would like to continue the ISS partnership.

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 30, 2022