Dad-O-Lot said:

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What a new American Civil War would look like

I've always considered another American Civil War as not at all likely.

Given our current state of affairs, I'm beginning to believe otherwise. My faith in patriots in positions of power has disappeared. I see that there are people at all levels of government who really do seem to want to end our current form of government to replace with something they see as more "egalitarian".

I also believe that most Americans also don't see it as possible and trust the few "grown ups" in government to have at least a "bend but don't break" attitude about "revolution".

The biggest difference I see in the US now and the historical examples given, is that there is a much greater percentage of armed citizens than there were in any of the examples.

However, if there are people in leadership positions of the military who are sympathetic to the leftist cause, a well-armed citizenry may not be able to stop them.

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I do not wish to be alarmist. But what I describe here is a plausible scenario. And have no doubt, our nation's enemies are resolute and determined. The continued existence of our great country, the United States of America, will depend on the bravery, strength, resourcefulness, and patriotism of her most loyal citizens. We must stand prepared for all possible threats.

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You should ask what would Texas look like?

The last Civil war, Texas was divided between the pro-Unionist and pro-secessionist. The pro-secessionist used violence to silence the pro-Unionist and in the end the state convention (packed by pro-secessionists) voted 168 to 8 for secession. The voters approved (46,129 to 14,697) and Texas succeeded. During the war about 25% of all Texans were still pro-Union (although in secret, due to pro-secessionist violence).

Given this, today I would estimate over 1/3 of all Texans would be on one side and the rest on the other.

Not a pretty sight.

The thing that keeps coming up in my mind is Venezuela. Those folks have taken 20 years worth of crap and not even one whimper of throw those suckers out. Their system is broken and there seems to be no initiative to change anything. In conclusion, people seem to be willing to take an immeasurable amount of repression without change. They are sheep at this point.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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In general I find most of the Civil War scenarios on here highly unlikely. Most people are content with their lives and don't want to tear down the country to replace the government, even if they deeply dislike said government. The most vocal groups that advocate for violence, Antifa and some black separatist movements on the left and the militia movements on the right, don't have anywhere near enough supporters to do anything significant. Those groups alone won't start a war.

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I think Pareto principle applies here. Every election cycle since I've been old enough to pay attention seems to get more and more hyperbolic. The ranks of the hyper-politicized has on both sides seem to grow and get harsher. At a certain point, what were formerly (and likely still are) the fringes will bring this horror down on all of us and most of the remainder will neither cease to find a side nor have anything left that is t worth tearing down. I worry terribly that we may already be there.

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The only scenario I could see as remotely plausible would come out of a disputed election. Let's say Trump loses, claims that the election was invalid due to fraud and refused to leave office. Or on the other side let's say Trump wins but Democrats claim the election is invalid due to government interference. In both of these situations I think it would be very possible to get out of hand pretty quickly. The last time we had a disputed election was in 2000. Gore eventually conceded after the Supreme Court decision. What happens if the other candidate doesn't concede? I could see a situation where different states recognize their preferred candidate as the legitimate president.

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I actually think this is the goal today. There's so much about today's environment that has an do or die/last chance feel to it. Anything short of a landslide Trump victory is very worrying to me as a spark. A landslide a Republican victory after this year would represent a largely undisputed rejection of the left-wing identity/equity terror that the Democrats have embraced. A narrow victory by either side will likely devolve into refusal to concede victory. A landslide Democrat victory will come with accusations of fraud and conspiracy given the push for mail-in voting and Covid-driven suppression of in person voting. NY primaries this summer are pretty much proving why that accusation can't be dismissed as right wing lunacy, and national election isn't going to have 3-4 months to unravel the mess. Bush vs Gore seems like lifetime ago sometimes when you think about civility. I can't see one side blinking this time.

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If there ever is another civil war there likely won't be just two sides. You'd have other factions such as socialists or those fighting for a more right wing authoritarian style of government as well. I'd also expect China, Russia, and the EU to be heavily involved, including the possibility of sending troops to help support their preferred factions.

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Agreed, and I can't say I'd blame them. Geopolitical posturing aside, an American Civil War in the 21st century should terrify the hell out of every living being on this planet. The rapidity of the US dollar collapse would be devastating to global markets. The inevitable collapse of US agriculture would create global food shortages with cascading effects into other industries. I'm also not sure mutually assured destruction would apply as much when we're pointing weapons at each other with little strategic plan for what comes after right now. The results of such a conflict could be globally catastrophic.

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In general most overestimate Antifa. Even if you add up all the people who've protested recently (even including peaceful protests) it's still less than 1% of the population. These groups are flashy, but largely irrelevant. They don't have the capability to start a civil war. The internet has made it seem that these groups are more influential than they are.

Even a landslide Trump victory won't escape allegations of an invalid election. Dems are already framing moves at the USPS as efforts to interfere with the election. Not to mention a large victory by Trump would run so counter to polling data (even worse than 2016) that I'm certain there would be allegations that the vote counts were manipulated.

The decisive factors are going to come down to high ranking unelected officials. No matter what the dispute is, if the Supreme Court, the Joint Chiefs, and others all back one side then the likelihood of conflict is significantly diminished. The trouble comes if our institutions become divided in who they support.

TXCityAggie said:

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Maybe y'all could just create one big Civil War thread like the Q thread? Might be easier.

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There you go!

just watch, our navy will atogonize the chinese and they will slip up and bomb one of our ships and bam no more of this civil war or communist uprising

FrankK said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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torrid said:

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Maybe other than the Left Coast, there is no well-defined geographic dividing line like the Mason-Dixon. It's more like an urban-suburban divide.

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I used to believe that was something that would prevent a Civil War, then I realized that there are many historical examples of Civil Wars that were not based on geography at all. Frankly, this could be worse. It truly would be "neighbor versus neighbor".

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And that is why you should download the publicly published political contribution list for your zip code. Know who your friendly neighbors are so that you know who to call upon if ever needed.

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This is flat out creepy. You think that alone will define who's a friend and what they are thinking. And if they'll come to your aid. Even if they contributed to the "correct" candidate, they might just come in and take all your ammo and food for themselves.

Americans are too dependent on modern infrastructure to ever engage in an actual civil war. It would be so easy to cut all power, water, communications, and supplies (food) off to urban areas...and then what? Surrender.

Rural Americans would have the upper hand...as they are more apt to have actual survival skills and resources that don't depend on infrastructure. Urban folks would fold almost immediately.

TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

FrankK said:

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Yikes, I didn't realize that I was recommending that we all right away invite all of them to come sleep with my wife. That's a huge leap in assumptive progressions from simply downloading a list.

Come on! If yer gonna attempt to discredit my suggestion, you gotta give it more thought and effort than than lame attempt.

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Your comment on what the list is for " Know who your friendly neighbors are so that you know who to call upon if ever needed." That's not just simply downloading a list. You state to know who to call based on the list - and my comment still stands and is valid that you don't know what you'll get when you call.

If something starts it will be initiated by the right. An alt right group might target some critical infrastructure, resulting in mass interruption in power and transportation that could be bad news for cities in the north and northeast during the winter months.

The above alone does not directly cause a civil war but rather the subsequent reaction. The left will be galvanized against the "fascists" with hard government control policies on guns, free speech, and broader use of invasion of privacy for "security", which limp wristed Republicans accept without a fight just as they do now. It's these policy changes that ultimately result in full scale civil conflict by those on the right who no longer feel any representation by either party. I expect that civil conflict will primarily be 3D tactics of continued attacks on critical infrastructure, including utilities, major roadways, etc. Where it goes from there who knows. I think it will come down to how exactly the government reacts to the resulting low morale and hunger and whether foreign parties become actively involved.

Presence of statues indicates it's still being fought.

MaxPower said:

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If something starts it will be initiated by the right. An alt right group might target some critical infrastructure, resulting in mass interruption in power and transportation that could be bad news for cities in the north and northeast during the winter months.

The above alone does not directly cause a civil war but rather the subsequent reaction. The left will be galvanized against the "fascists" with hard government control policies on guns, free speech, and broader use of invasion of privacy for "security", which limp wristed Republicans accept without a fight just as they do now. It's these policy changes that ultimately result in full scale civil conflict by those on the right who no longer feel any representation by either party. I expect that civil conflict will primarily be 3D tactics of continued attacks on critical infrastructure, including utilities, major roadways, etc. Where it goes from there who knows. I think it will come down to how exactly the government reacts to the resulting low morale and hunger and whether foreign parties become actively involved.

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You watch too many movies

HoustonAg2106 said:

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MaxPower said:

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If something starts it will be initiated by the right. An alt right group might target some critical infrastructure, resulting in mass interruption in power and transportation that could be bad news for cities in the north and northeast during the winter months.

The above alone does not directly cause a civil war but rather the subsequent reaction. The left will be galvanized against the "fascists" with hard government control policies on guns, free speech, and broader use of invasion of privacy for "security", which limp wristed Republicans accept without a fight just as they do now. It's these policy changes that ultimately result in full scale civil conflict by those on the right who no longer feel any representation by either party. I expect that civil conflict will primarily be 3D tactics of continued attacks on critical infrastructure, including utilities, major roadways, etc. Where it goes from there who knows. I think it will come down to how exactly the government reacts to the resulting low morale and hunger and whether foreign parties become actively involved.

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You watch too many movies

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Like Red Dawn

LOL, exactly

MaxPower said:

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If something starts it will be initiated by the right. An alt right group might target some critical infrastructure, resulting in mass interruption in power and transportation that could be bad news for cities in the north and northeast during the winter months.

The above alone does not directly cause a civil war but rather the subsequent reaction. The left will be galvanized against the "fascists" with hard government control policies on guns, free speech, and broader use of invasion of privacy for "security", which limp wristed Republicans accept without a fight just as they do now. It's these policy changes that ultimately result in full scale civil conflict by those on the right who no longer feel any representation by either party. I expect that civil conflict will primarily be 3D tactics of continued attacks on critical infrastructure, including utilities, major roadways, etc. Where it goes from there who knows. I think it will come down to how exactly the government reacts to the resulting low morale and hunger and whether foreign parties become actively involved.

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really! We have leftists/Antifa actively attacking Federal buildings and local law enforcement, and you think it'll be a right wing group that will target some critical infrastructure.

If the violence progresses to the point that it is considered a "civil war", I think historians will look back at the summer of 2020 as the start of it. The escalation will be considered retaliatory.

A more likely scenario would be if certain states or the U.S. Congress goes full Democrat and they start outlawing various types of weapons.

When the citizens refuse to comply, it could turn ugly fast.

Dad-O-Lot said:

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MaxPower said:

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If something starts it will be initiated by the right. An alt right group might target some critical infrastructure, resulting in mass interruption in power and transportation that could be bad news for cities in the north and northeast during the winter months.

The above alone does not directly cause a civil war but rather the subsequent reaction. The left will be galvanized against the "fascists" with hard government control policies on guns, free speech, and broader use of invasion of privacy for "security", which limp wristed Republicans accept without a fight just as they do now. It's these policy changes that ultimately result in full scale civil conflict by those on the right who no longer feel any representation by either party. I expect that civil conflict will primarily be 3D tactics of continued attacks on critical infrastructure, including utilities, major roadways, etc. Where it goes from there who knows. I think it will come down to how exactly the government reacts to the resulting low morale and hunger and whether foreign parties become actively involved.

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really! We have leftists/Antifa actively attacking Federal buildings and local law enforcement, and you think it'll be a right wing group that will target some critical infrastructure.

If the violence progresses to the point that it is considered a "civil war", I think historians will look back at the summer of 2020 as the start of it. The escalation will be considered retaliatory.

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Antifa is just a bunch of provocateurs. You've got to hand it to them, they're damn good at it. But if they know one thing, it's that they are better off poking the bear, hoping the bear reacts, and then pleading for help to put the bear down.

Some folks on the alt right though, they have the means, skills and fortitude to perform meaningful acts of terrorism.

The reality is neither the alt right or Antifa really represents a meaningful portion of the American population but we have seen in history where there's significant political strife that these types of groups can act as a match igniting the forest fire.

Only a small percentage of each side actually believes that civil war is actually plausible/necessary. Most people recognize that no matter how screwed up things are in this country, we are still far too advanced of a nation to actually tailspin into a full out civil war

Most people couldn't get off their smartphones long enough to fight in a civil war.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

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I said "Which is how this country will go full on socialist.". What am I referring to?
a) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

b) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

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I said "Which is how this country will go full on socialist.". What am I referring to?
a) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

b) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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I don't see how that will make the country socialist, I just don't think a civil war is likely to happen because most people have other priorities in their life rather than getting involved in this silliness and going to war with each other

HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

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I said "Which is how this country will go full on socialist.". What am I referring to?
a) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

b) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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I don't see how that will make the country socialist, I just don't think a civil war is likely to happen because most people have other priorities in their life rather than getting involved in this silliness and going to war with each other

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A cold civil war has already started before this year. There was an ongoing coup attempt against the president, and left leaning companies stifling free speech. And then this year came and now they're burning cities and literally trying to seize land away from the US by force. So it's getting hotter. But a full on hot civil war probably won't be necessary.

I'll assume you mean a hot civil war. Do you think it won't happen because the left will stop where they are and will not try to continue taking away free speech, our guns, trash law and order? Or do you think it won't happen because people are too busy to be bothered to save their country?

AG81xx said:

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Aggiebrewer said:

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AG81xx said:

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Study the Spanish Civil war....right vs left... scattered pockets of each....communism vs fascism.....not too far off

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the communists here ARE THE FASCISTS

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It was a little harder to figure out who were the good/bad guys in the Spanish Civil War.

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Depends on your point of view. I had a grandfather and great uncles that fought in the war, two of them died in exile. They certainly had their opinions of who was good and who was bad. And I have mine.

TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

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I said "Which is how this country will go full on socialist.". What am I referring to?
a) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

b) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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I don't see how that will make the country socialist, I just don't think a civil war is likely to happen because most people have other priorities in their life rather than getting involved in this silliness and going to war with each other

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A cold civil war has already started before this year. There was an ongoing coup attempt against the president, and left leaning companies stifling free speech. And then this year came and now they're burning cities and literally trying to seize land away from the US by force. So it's getting hotter. But a full on hot civil war probably won't be necessary.

I'll assume you mean a hot civil war. Do you think it won't happen because the left will stop where they are and will not try to continue taking away free speech, our guns, trash law and order? Or do you think it won't happen because people are too busy to be bothered to save their country?

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Yes I mean a hot civil war where the country is literally at war, is that not what this thread is talking about? If it comes to that obviously every day people like myself won't be able to avoid it and life as we know it changes completely, you won't be able to do business between states, cities, or even counties at that point

You're so called "cold civil war" is just politics and riots that have obviously gotten out of hand and have been mishandled by certain local governments, but will go away eventually (just like they all have before)

HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

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So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

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I said "Which is how this country will go full on socialist.". What am I referring to?
a) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

b) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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I don't see how that will make the country socialist, I just don't think a civil war is likely to happen because most people have other priorities in their life rather than getting involved in this silliness and going to war with each other

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A cold civil war has already started before this year. There was an ongoing coup attempt against the president, and left leaning companies stifling free speech. And then this year came and now they're burning cities and literally trying to seize land away from the US by force. So it's getting hotter. But a full on hot civil war probably won't be necessary.

I'll assume you mean a hot civil war. Do you think it won't happen because the left will stop where they are and will not try to continue taking away free speech, our guns, trash law and order? Or do you think it won't happen because people are too busy to be bothered to save their country?

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Yes I mean a hot civil war where the country is literally at war, is that not what this thread is talking about? If it comes to that obviously every day people like myself won't be able to avoid it and life as we know it changes completely, you won't be able to do business between states, cities, or even counties at that point

You're so called "cold civil war" is just politics and riots that have obviously gotten out of hand and have been mishandled by certain local governments, but will go away eventually (just like they all have before)

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So you think that the left will stop where they are and will not try to continue taking away free speech, our guns, trash law and order? That would be something all together new. The level of Marxism in this country has only gone up since the height of the Cold War. The only reason the left has given in on letting our kids go back to school is that they realize there's an election coming up and they need to get back to indoctrinating them and turn them in to good little Marxists.

TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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Which is how this country will go full on socialist. Just make sure people keep their jobs and we're all good right?

---

So having a job makes you a socialist now?

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You have an ag tag, so I know you can read. Try again.

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You said people keeping their jobs will make this country socialist. What am I missing?

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I said "Which is how this country will go full on socialist.". What am I referring to?
a) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

b) Personally, like most Americans, I'm too busy going to work and providing for a family to get involved in something like that

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I don't see how that will make the country socialist, I just don't think a civil war is likely to happen because most people have other priorities in their life rather than getting involved in this silliness and going to war with each other

---

A cold civil war has already started before this year. There was an ongoing coup attempt against the president, and left leaning companies stifling free speech. And then this year came and now they're burning cities and literally trying to seize land away from the US by force. So it's getting hotter. But a full on hot civil war probably won't be necessary.

I'll assume you mean a hot civil war. Do you think it won't happen because the left will stop where they are and will not try to continue taking away free speech, our guns, trash law and order? Or do you think it won't happen because people are too busy to be bothered to save their country?

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Yes I mean a hot civil war where the country is literally at war, is that not what this thread is talking about? If it comes to that obviously every day people like myself won't be able to avoid it and life as we know it changes completely, you won't be able to do business between states, cities, or even counties at that point

You're so called "cold civil war" is just politics and riots that have obviously gotten out of hand and have been mishandled by certain local governments, but will go away eventually (just like they all have before)

---

So you think that the left will stop where they are and will not try to continue taking away free speech, our guns, trash law and order? That would be something all together new. The level of Marxism in this country has only gone up since the height of the Cold War. The only reason the left has given in on letting our kids go back to school is that they realize there's an election coming up and they need to get back to indoctrinating them and turn them in to good little Marxists.

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I don't know about all that, sounds like a mix of politics and paranoia to me. I'm just saying that I'm not expecting any of us to be forced to become "soldiers" in a civil war in my lifetime.