People, please.

You only get inflation with monetary policy where money is created. You don't get inflation because Joe buys a treasury and loans his money to the government. In that scenario, the amount of money is the same as it was before the transaction.

When did conservatives quit caring about a balanced budget or solving the deficit? That was one of the major standards in the republican platform I used to subscribe to. It's all a bunch of talk these days, no action.

KorbinDallas said:

---

When did conservatives quit caring about a balanced budget or solving the deficit? That was one of the major standards in the republican platform I used to subscribe to. It's all a bunch of y'all these days, no action.

---

It's why I'm an independent. Probably most identify with Libertarians. I really don't give a **** about social issues but I'm passionate about free markets and fiscal responsibility.

I haven't voted for a major party since 2000.

Cassius said:

---

People, please.

You only get inflation with monetary policy where money is created. You don't get inflation because Joe buys a treasury and loans his money to the government. In that scenario, the amount of money is the same as it was before the transaction.

---

But what if Joe is pretending to buy the debt (big banks) but then turns around and sells it right back to the federal government? Because that's what's happening.

titan said:

---

Quote:

---

I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

---

What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

---

Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

KorbinDallas said:

---

When did conservatives quit caring about a balanced budget or solving the deficit? That was one of the major standards in the republican platform I used to subscribe to. It's all a bunch of talk these days, no action.

---

Agreed. Republicans are a joke. I'm pissed because I don't know WTF were spending all this money on. If I'm driving off a cliff, at least let me do it in a Rolls Royce.

China is in a race to create a middle class before the one child policy burns them but they are likely too late. Children are their retirement package. Two children per four parents, with one being a girl, is a major issue if the children's standard of living doesn't increase massively.

Mas89 said:

---

What debt? Don't you know the government can just print money?
It's all free.

---

Took the words out of my mouth.

Gold hit $843 in 1980. Adjust for CPI and that would be around $2500 in today's dollars. Not a good investnent if bought at high and held. Worse if sold for $1600 and pay tax on $757 long-term gain. Tax could be as much as 23.8%

aggie93 said:

---

titan said:

---

Quote:

---

I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

---

What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

---

Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

---

You last two sentences say it all. The "Party" is everything. As long as the people give their support to the party; China can be it's own self contained feifdom. For better or worse; much of the world is hooked on their supply chain and they have 1.5b consumers. The $$ will still flow to them. The Europeans won't let go; especially the weaker parts of Europe. But neither will the DE or FR as they will do business with any regime. And China is using their $$ to build markets and infrastructure across the rest of SE Asia (Phillipines, Thailand, etc.) and Africa. They are buying influence everywhere in the world with their infrastructure $$ and outright bribes. They are very efficient in their graft overseas. And their domestic press (that is, the Party press) supports their efforts to economically pillage other nations 100%.

Their issue is not land however; they have more of it than they can subjugate today. All their "autonomous" areas are already stretching them (Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.) today to keep under wraps. Their Xinjiang efforts are already taxing their ability to get Han Chinese "occupiers" to volunteer to occupy Uighers homes as it is. Their fear of India is just absolutely pathological. That could result in war; but it will be over a petty border skirmish that could get out of hand; but not anything as bold as vast conquest. The Indians have nukes and no love for China. Pakistan is their oldest ally in the region; recognized the CCCP before any other nation back in the 40's. They are allies. The other 'stan's present too many diverse ethnic considerations for them...no different than Xinjiang.

japantiger said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

titan said:

---

Quote:

---

I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

---

What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

---

Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

---

You last two sentences say it all. The "Party" is everything. As long as the people give their support to the party; China can be it's own self contained feifdom. For better or worse; much of the world is hooked on their supply chain and they have 1.5b consumers. The $$ will still flow to them. The Europeans won't let go; especially the weaker parts of Europe. But neither will the DE or FR as they will do business with any regime. And China is using their $$ to build markets and infrastructure across the rest of SE Asia (Phillipines, Thailand, etc.) and Africa. They are buying influence everywhere in the world with their infrastructure $$ and outright bribes. They are very efficient in their graft overseas. And their domestic press (that is, the Party press) supports their efforts to economically pillage other nations 100%.

Their issue is not land however; they have more of it than they can subjugate today. All their "autonomous" areas are already stretching them (Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.) today to keep under wraps. Their Xinjiang efforts are already taxing their ability to get Han Chinese "occupiers" to volunteer to occupy Uighers homes as it is. Their fear of India is just absolutely pathological. That could result in war; but it will be over a petty border skirmish that could get out of hand; but not anything as bold as vast conquest. The Indians have nukes and no love for China. Pakistan is their oldest ally in the region; recognized the CCCP before any other nation back in the 40's. They are allies. The other 'stan's present too many diverse ethnic considerations for them...no different than Xinjiang.

---

All of that is true but the key is there is more to the story. China has been bribing everyone and trying to spread influence but in the end they can't back it up. Don't underestimate the consequences of TikTok. Basically Trump is pushing the Chinese out and they can't do anything about it. Japan is backing away. UK is pushing out Huawei. China can't project militarily only economically and they are pissing in everyone's cheerios. Essentially all of the countries they have been putting on the payroll can just walk and keep the money and China can't do anything to stop them outside of stop bribing them and threatening.

China makes things but very little of what they make can't be made elsewhere. They do have a corner on some rare earth materials but outside of that they are mainly bluffing. In the end they have a house of cards with so many areas it could all come crashing down. Hell that could happen with Three Gorges anytime. It's a country built on payoffs and corruption. The Ghost Cities are a perfect example. Cities built with printed money from Chinese banks to give citizens a way to invest. Only no one lives there and the cities are falling apart. China has poured massive amounts of money into Africa and Belt and Road. Only Africa is never going to pay off for them and Belt and Road inevitably depends on them sending goods through Iran, Russia, or shipping it around the world through seas they don't have any control of.

China is still definitely dangerous. I expect they will engage in a conflict or two (as they are spoiling with India and others) but it is mainly to distract their people from the collapse that is coming. No sane company is going to invest in China. Companies are going to move manufacturing out at an increasing rate. Countries are going to be wary about doing any type of new business with China or Chinese companies. That's death for a Ponzi scheme, they need a constant flow of new investors or else it all falls apart.

Honestly I think how Trump has dealt with China is by far his best work as President. He understood the threat like very few did and he was on the money. He has played them perfectly and has them exposed and on the run. Now they are doing everything they can to take him down and with as many mistakes as Trump has made he has done a great job of making China toxic and I think he has more to come.

Mostly Sunny Disposition said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

When did conservatives quit caring about a balanced budget or solving the deficit? That was one of the major standards in the republican platform I used to subscribe to. It's all a bunch of y'all these days, no action.

---

It's why I'm an independent. Probably most identify with Libertarians. I really don't give a **** about social issues but I'm passionate about free markets and fiscal responsibility.

I haven't voted for a major party since 2000.

---

Look at me! My vote doesn't count!

japantiger, aggie93,

Just want to say great posts, and the kind that provoke a lot of re-evaluating and consideration.

aggie93 said:

---

japantiger said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

titan said:

---

Quote:

---

I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

---

What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

---

Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

---

You last two sentences say it all. The "Party" is everything. As long as the people give their support to the party; China can be it's own self contained feifdom. For better or worse; much of the world is hooked on their supply chain and they have 1.5b consumers. The $$ will still flow to them. The Europeans won't let go; especially the weaker parts of Europe. But neither will the DE or FR as they will do business with any regime. And China is using their $$ to build markets and infrastructure across the rest of SE Asia (Phillipines, Thailand, etc.) and Africa. They are buying influence everywhere in the world with their infrastructure $$ and outright bribes. They are very efficient in their graft overseas. And their domestic press (that is, the Party press) supports their efforts to economically pillage other nations 100%.

Their issue is not land however; they have more of it than they can subjugate today. All their "autonomous" areas are already stretching them (Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.) today to keep under wraps. Their Xinjiang efforts are already taxing their ability to get Han Chinese "occupiers" to volunteer to occupy Uighers homes as it is. Their fear of India is just absolutely pathological. That could result in war; but it will be over a petty border skirmish that could get out of hand; but not anything as bold as vast conquest. The Indians have nukes and no love for China. Pakistan is their oldest ally in the region; recognized the CCCP before any other nation back in the 40's. They are allies. The other 'stan's present too many diverse ethnic considerations for them...no different than Xinjiang.

---

All of that is true but the key is there is more to the story. China has been bribing everyone and trying to spread influence but in the end they can't back it up. Don't underestimate the consequences of TikTok. Basically Trump is pushing the Chinese out and they can't do anything about it. Japan is backing away. UK is pushing out Huawei. China can't project militarily only economically and they are pissing in everyone's cheerios. Essentially all of the countries they have been putting on the payroll can just walk and keep the money and China can't do anything to stop them outside of stop bribing them and threatening.

China makes things but very little of what they make can't be made elsewhere. They do have a corner on some rare earth materials but outside of that they are mainly bluffing. In the end they have a house of cards with so many areas it could all come crashing down. Hell that could happen with Three Gorges anytime. It's a country built on payoffs and corruption. The Ghost Cities are a perfect example. Cities built with printed money from Chinese banks to give citizens a way to invest. Only no one lives there and the cities are falling apart. China has poured massive amounts of money into Africa and Belt and Road. Only Africa is never going to pay off for them and Belt and Road inevitably depends on them sending goods through Iran, Russia, or shipping it around the world through seas they don't have any control of.

China is still definitely dangerous. I expect they will engage in a conflict or two (as they are spoiling with India and others) but it is mainly to distract their people from the collapse that is coming. No sane company is going to invest in China. Companies are going to move manufacturing out at an increasing rate. Countries are going to be wary about doing any type of new business with China or Chinese companies. That's death for a Ponzi scheme, they need a constant flow of new investors or else it all falls apart.

Honestly I think how Trump has dealt with China is by far his best work as President. He understood the threat like very few did and he was on the money. He has played them perfectly and has them exposed and on the run. Now they are doing everything they can to take him down and with as many mistakes as Trump has made he has done a great job of making China toxic and I think he has more to come.

---

Agree 100% with the last paragraph.

As for paragraph 3; in May for example, foreign investment in China was up 7.5% YoY. So despite trade tensions and general tension with China; foreign companies continue to invest in China. This is being driven by companies trying to tap into 1.5b consumers. It is a powerful inducement. The Chinese economy is still largely dependent on Gov't spending; consumer spending has a long way to grow. Companies need markets. Also, in some markets, China is the global leader now. That draws investment. Finance, tech, batteries, etc., are all growing.

For paragraph 1 and 2; China doesn't wait to be paid back in the traditional sense. They just come in and take resources from Africa in exchange for building ports, airports, etc. For example, in Namibia, they've built a lot of port infrastructure (gave China access to an Atlantic coast port); in exchange, they clear cut valuable timber and exported back to China (did not replant by the way), take Uranium and other rare earths at bargain prices, etc.. So there model is different. Desperate African economies are great with this as they are starved for infrastructure; and as expected; politicians can be bought easily and cheaply there. There are some politicians that don't like it, but SWAPO is in pretty deep on this front. China is now Namibia's leading exporter; they have overtaken South Africa their immediate neighbor. This is much more structural and sustainable across Africa.

We have to make this hard for China; 100% agree we have been and have to lead on this...but it will take a lot more aggressive foreign engagement than what we are currently doing.

Question(s) for those that know -

Doesn't China have a sh*t load of gold?

If this is true why do we want to go back to the gold standard? Won't that just give China the advantage?

Dan Scott said:

---

Could it be that the chickens are coming home to roost? It makes me sick thinking about it, since 2008, we've added $20T to the national debt and nothing to show for it. Public schools suck, healthcare costs suck, infrastructure sucks, life expectancy beginning to drop, college costs too much, homeless people in big cities, Opioid crisis, etc. Too much in this country sucks after all this money spent. I guess it proves money can fix everything.

F U to every scumbag politician since 2008 and I only go back to 2008 because that's when I started following.

Been thinking, a few things are holding up the value of the dollar: rest of world sucking, u.s military, and oil demand. If oil demand is cut in half and not coming back soon, what does that mean for the dollar?

---

another bitcoin thread? What the f?

japantiger said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

japantiger said:

---

aggie93 said:

---

titan said:

---

Quote:

---

I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

---

What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

---

Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

---

You last two sentences say it all. The "Party" is everything. As long as the people give their support to the party; China can be it's own self contained feifdom. For better or worse; much of the world is hooked on their supply chain and they have 1.5b consumers. The $$ will still flow to them. The Europeans won't let go; especially the weaker parts of Europe. But neither will the DE or FR as they will do business with any regime. And China is using their $$ to build markets and infrastructure across the rest of SE Asia (Phillipines, Thailand, etc.) and Africa. They are buying influence everywhere in the world with their infrastructure $$ and outright bribes. They are very efficient in their graft overseas. And their domestic press (that is, the Party press) supports their efforts to economically pillage other nations 100%.

Their issue is not land however; they have more of it than they can subjugate today. All their "autonomous" areas are already stretching them (Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.) today to keep under wraps. Their Xinjiang efforts are already taxing their ability to get Han Chinese "occupiers" to volunteer to occupy Uighers homes as it is. Their fear of India is just absolutely pathological. That could result in war; but it will be over a petty border skirmish that could get out of hand; but not anything as bold as vast conquest. The Indians have nukes and no love for China. Pakistan is their oldest ally in the region; recognized the CCCP before any other nation back in the 40's. They are allies. The other 'stan's present too many diverse ethnic considerations for them...no different than Xinjiang.

---

All of that is true but the key is there is more to the story. China has been bribing everyone and trying to spread influence but in the end they can't back it up. Don't underestimate the consequences of TikTok. Basically Trump is pushing the Chinese out and they can't do anything about it. Japan is backing away. UK is pushing out Huawei. China can't project militarily only economically and they are pissing in everyone's cheerios. Essentially all of the countries they have been putting on the payroll can just walk and keep the money and China can't do anything to stop them outside of stop bribing them and threatening.

China makes things but very little of what they make can't be made elsewhere. They do have a corner on some rare earth materials but outside of that they are mainly bluffing. In the end they have a house of cards with so many areas it could all come crashing down. Hell that could happen with Three Gorges anytime. It's a country built on payoffs and corruption. The Ghost Cities are a perfect example. Cities built with printed money from Chinese banks to give citizens a way to invest. Only no one lives there and the cities are falling apart. China has poured massive amounts of money into Africa and Belt and Road. Only Africa is never going to pay off for them and Belt and Road inevitably depends on them sending goods through Iran, Russia, or shipping it around the world through seas they don't have any control of.

China is still definitely dangerous. I expect they will engage in a conflict or two (as they are spoiling with India and others) but it is mainly to distract their people from the collapse that is coming. No sane company is going to invest in China. Companies are going to move manufacturing out at an increasing rate. Countries are going to be wary about doing any type of new business with China or Chinese companies. That's death for a Ponzi scheme, they need a constant flow of new investors or else it all falls apart.

Honestly I think how Trump has dealt with China is by far his best work as President. He understood the threat like very few did and he was on the money. He has played them perfectly and has them exposed and on the run. Now they are doing everything they can to take him down and with as many mistakes as Trump has made he has done a great job of making China toxic and I think he has more to come.

---

Agree 100% with the last paragraph.

As for paragraph 3; in May for example, foreign investment in China was up 7.5% YoY. So despite trade tensions and general tension with China; foreign companies continue to invest in China. This is being driven by companies trying to tap into 1.5b consumers. It is a powerful inducement. The Chinese economy is still largely dependent on Gov't spending; consumer spending has a long way to grow. Companies need markets. Also, in some markets, China is the global leader now. That draws investment. Finance, tech, batteries, etc., are all growing.

For paragraph 1 and 2; China doesn't wait to be paid back in the traditional sense. They just come in and take resources from Africa in exchange for building ports, airports, etc. For example, in Namibia, they've built a lot of port infrastructure (gave China access to an Atlantic coast port); in exchange, they clear cut valuable timber and exported back to China (did not replant by the way), take Uranium and other rare earths at bargain prices, etc.. So there model is different. Desperate African economies are great with this as they are starved for infrastructure; and as expected; politicians can be bought easily and cheaply there. There are some politicians that don't like it, but SWAPO is in pretty deep on this front. China is now Namibia's leading exporter; they have overtaken South Africa their immediate neighbor. This is much more structural and sustainable across Africa.

We have to make this hard for China; 100% agree we have been and have to lead on this...but it will take a lot more aggressive foreign engagement than what we are currently doing.

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Don't disagree with any of that. China is doing that and far more in Africa and especially the Middle East. They are spending big on their military as well and want to be able to build up to be able to project power. They are still decades away though. The key is going to be to continue to up the pressure on China and they will implode. They have a lot of vulnerabilities and they are making alliances with extremely untrustworthy partners that will screw them without hesitation. The key to their success is discretion and that is what they have lost. Their motives are increasingly clear not only to the US but to Japan, Australia, the UK, India, and others. Israel is also key. If they walk away from China then China cannot survive.

Still, they are the biggest and really the only significant threat to us. We just need to stay strong and they will fold. Unfortunately I don't know if we can.

LOYAL AG said:

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As long as the world operates in dollars we'll be the last one standing. As badly as we've abused the dollar it's held up reasonably well against other currencies. We're basically outsourcing inflation at this point. At some point you'd think "the world" would tell us thats enough but right now there's no other choice. Everybody has the central bank disease and they're all doing the same thing. What keeps us on top is the position of the dollar as the global currency. Well that and the American Middle Class. As long as we have those two things it's not going to stop no matter how big the debt gets.

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The US dollar being the world's reserve currency is not fixed in stone. When it changes, and that could be sooner than most people would imagine, it is going to hit us hard.

The world is telling us to do better, but it is doing that by pushing other currencies or basket of currencies to take the dollar's place.

Buck Turgidson said:

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There is a reason why Trump is stocking the Fed board with advocates of the gold standard.

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If you think that the King of Debt is going to do anything about it, you are going to be greatly disappointed.

One of his 2016 campaign promises was to get rid of the debt. Look how hard he's been pushing that.

Bitcoin....get some its going to 100,000

eric76 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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As long as the world operates in dollars we'll be the last one standing. As badly as we've abused the dollar it's held up reasonably well against other currencies. We're basically outsourcing inflation at this point. At some point you'd think "the world" would tell us thats enough but right now there's no other choice. Everybody has the central bank disease and they're all doing the same thing. What keeps us on top is the position of the dollar as the global currency. Well that and the American Middle Class. As long as we have those two things it's not going to stop no matter how big the debt gets.

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The US dollar being the world's reserve currency is not fixed in stone. When it changes, and that could be sooner than most people would imagine, it is going to hit us hard.

The world is telling us to do better, but it is doing that by pushing other currencies or basket of currencies to take the dollar's place.

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I get what you're saying and on paper you're right but what currency is going to replace the dollar in the near or intermediate future? The rest of the world's major economies are worse off than we are in terms of debt to GDP. It's just not practical sans something unlikely like a significant conflict that cripples the US economy. We basically have a Navy equivalent to the rest of the world combined and use it to protect global trade. Nobody else can do that or is anywhere close to be able to do it. We can hate it all we want as people that want economic stability but it is what it is. There's simply not a currency capable of replacing the dollar right now.

Currencies aside the US middle class is the world's economic engine. As long as that's true the global economy is going to revolve around the US. That as much as anything is protecting the dollar. If you're selling into the US, and if you're anywhere in the world making stuff you are, then you're going to have to take dollars. That's what's really baffling about the left's push the destroy the US. If/when we fail economically the death and destruction will be on an unimaginable level as conflict breaks out globally. The American left is pushing policy that will usher in WWIII and they're too stupid to see it. Or it's what they want which is really scary to imagine. Either way as long as the US middle class is the economic engine the dollar is pretty safe as the reserve currency.

eric76 said:

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Buck Turgidson said:

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There is a reason why Trump is stocking the Fed board with advocates of the gold standard.

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If you think that the King of Debt is going to do anything about it, you are going to be greatly disappointed.

One of his 2016 campaign promises was to get rid of the debt. Look how hard he's been pushing that.

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Your TDS is showing. W doubled the debt. Obama more than doubled the debt. Reagan more than doubled the debt. Prior to Covid Trump wasn't on a course much different than his post-gold standard predecessors. It's way beyond control of the President at this point.

aggie93 said:

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japantiger said:

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aggie93 said:

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japantiger said:

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aggie93 said:

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titan said:

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I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

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What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

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Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

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You last two sentences say it all. The "Party" is everything. As long as the people give their support to the party; China can be it's own self contained feifdom. For better or worse; much of the world is hooked on their supply chain and they have 1.5b consumers. The $$ will still flow to them. The Europeans won't let go; especially the weaker parts of Europe. But neither will the DE or FR as they will do business with any regime. And China is using their $$ to build markets and infrastructure across the rest of SE Asia (Phillipines, Thailand, etc.) and Africa. They are buying influence everywhere in the world with their infrastructure $$ and outright bribes. They are very efficient in their graft overseas. And their domestic press (that is, the Party press) supports their efforts to economically pillage other nations 100%.

Their issue is not land however; they have more of it than they can subjugate today. All their "autonomous" areas are already stretching them (Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.) today to keep under wraps. Their Xinjiang efforts are already taxing their ability to get Han Chinese "occupiers" to volunteer to occupy Uighers homes as it is. Their fear of India is just absolutely pathological. That could result in war; but it will be over a petty border skirmish that could get out of hand; but not anything as bold as vast conquest. The Indians have nukes and no love for China. Pakistan is their oldest ally in the region; recognized the CCCP before any other nation back in the 40's. They are allies. The other 'stan's present too many diverse ethnic considerations for them...no different than Xinjiang.

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All of that is true but the key is there is more to the story. China has been bribing everyone and trying to spread influence but in the end they can't back it up. Don't underestimate the consequences of TikTok. Basically Trump is pushing the Chinese out and they can't do anything about it. Japan is backing away. UK is pushing out Huawei. China can't project militarily only economically and they are pissing in everyone's cheerios. Essentially all of the countries they have been putting on the payroll can just walk and keep the money and China can't do anything to stop them outside of stop bribing them and threatening.

China makes things but very little of what they make can't be made elsewhere. They do have a corner on some rare earth materials but outside of that they are mainly bluffing. In the end they have a house of cards with so many areas it could all come crashing down. Hell that could happen with Three Gorges anytime. It's a country built on payoffs and corruption. The Ghost Cities are a perfect example. Cities built with printed money from Chinese banks to give citizens a way to invest. Only no one lives there and the cities are falling apart. China has poured massive amounts of money into Africa and Belt and Road. Only Africa is never going to pay off for them and Belt and Road inevitably depends on them sending goods through Iran, Russia, or shipping it around the world through seas they don't have any control of.

China is still definitely dangerous. I expect they will engage in a conflict or two (as they are spoiling with India and others) but it is mainly to distract their people from the collapse that is coming. No sane company is going to invest in China. Companies are going to move manufacturing out at an increasing rate. Countries are going to be wary about doing any type of new business with China or Chinese companies. That's death for a Ponzi scheme, they need a constant flow of new investors or else it all falls apart.

Honestly I think how Trump has dealt with China is by far his best work as President. He understood the threat like very few did and he was on the money. He has played them perfectly and has them exposed and on the run. Now they are doing everything they can to take him down and with as many mistakes as Trump has made he has done a great job of making China toxic and I think he has more to come.

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Agree 100% with the last paragraph.

As for paragraph 3; in May for example, foreign investment in China was up 7.5% YoY. So despite trade tensions and general tension with China; foreign companies continue to invest in China. This is being driven by companies trying to tap into 1.5b consumers. It is a powerful inducement. The Chinese economy is still largely dependent on Gov't spending; consumer spending has a long way to grow. Companies need markets. Also, in some markets, China is the global leader now. That draws investment. Finance, tech, batteries, etc., are all growing.

For paragraph 1 and 2; China doesn't wait to be paid back in the traditional sense. They just come in and take resources from Africa in exchange for building ports, airports, etc. For example, in Namibia, they've built a lot of port infrastructure (gave China access to an Atlantic coast port); in exchange, they clear cut valuable timber and exported back to China (did not replant by the way), take Uranium and other rare earths at bargain prices, etc.. So there model is different. Desperate African economies are great with this as they are starved for infrastructure; and as expected; politicians can be bought easily and cheaply there. There are some politicians that don't like it, but SWAPO is in pretty deep on this front. China is now Namibia's leading exporter; they have overtaken South Africa their immediate neighbor. This is much more structural and sustainable across Africa.

We have to make this hard for China; 100% agree we have been and have to lead on this...but it will take a lot more aggressive foreign engagement than what we are currently doing.

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Don't disagree with any of that. China is doing that and far more in Africa and especially the Middle East. They are spending big on their military as well and want to be able to build up to be able to project power. They are still decades away though. The key is going to be to continue to up the pressure on China and they will implode. They have a lot of vulnerabilities and they are making alliances with extremely untrustworthy partners that will screw them without hesitation. The key to their success is discretion and that is what they have lost. Their motives are increasingly clear not only to the US but to Japan, Australia, the UK, India, and others. Israel is also key. If they walk away from China then China cannot survive.

Still, they are the biggest and really the only significant threat to us. We just need to stay strong and they will fold. Unfortunately I don't know if we can.

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I don't think we disagree very much at all on the imperative to pressure China and some of the overall dynamics. I think we differ on 1) the timeline to effect major change ... due to 2) how structurally integrated China has become in everything; thanks to the last 30 years of WTO actions and incentives and 3) China as an economic growth opportunity for companies/nations. If during a time of maximum bad China PR; investors are still pumping $$ in there; it's hard to imagine what would reverse that short of all out war; which frankly is unlikely. This is a multi-generational battle.

I am not buying that investors are putting big money into China. I can see how China is exploiting some 3rd World countries short term but all the big boys are moving away especially the US, Japan, and Australia. I don't trust any numbers that come out of China on pretty much any topic either but especially anything that would make the CCP look terrible is going to be manipulated or just flat out falsified. The Chinese government just like the Soviets only release the information they want released, anyone that takes it at face value is being played. No one can audit or make sure what they are saying is true or accurate anymore than their COVID numbers. Currently there is no telling how many people have already died from the Three Gorges flooding but you certainly aren't going to hear it from the CCP.

I think the key is to continue to ratchet up the pressure on China and they will collapse. It's key to do so before they are able to build up their Navy. If China develops a true Blue Water Navy that can project power and compete with the US then the game shifts dramatically.

BTW, listened to this Podcast this AM and it has some very interesting insights. Hidden Forces-The Death of Engagement: America's New Cold War with China. One thing I learned was apparently GHWB sent Scowcroft on a secret mission to China just after the Beijing riots and basically pleaded with China NOT to disengage. How foolish was that decision? Imagine if instead he went the other direction in 89/90 as the Soviets were falling apart and amped up the pressure on China instead of giving them whatever they wanted? The CCP might have fallen back then and certainly the world would be a very different place. Essentially we openly chose the side of the CCP over the protestors. Though if you listen to the Podcast they actually spin it in a positive way which is at best naive.

aggie93 said:

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I am not buying that investors are putting big money into China. I can see how China is exploiting some 3rd World countries short term but all the big boys are moving away especially the US, Japan, and Australia. I don't trust any numbers that come out of China on pretty much any topic either but especially anything that would make the CCP look terrible is going to be manipulated or just flat out falsified. The Chinese government just like the Soviets only release the information they want released, anyone that takes it at face value is being played. No one can audit or make sure what they are saying is true or accurate anymore than their COVID numbers. Currently there is no telling how many people have already died from the Three Gorges flooding but you certainly aren't going to hear it from the CCP.

I think the key is to continue to ratchet up the pressure on China and they will collapse. It's key to do so before they are able to build up their Navy. If China develops a true Blue Water Navy that can project power and compete with the US then the game shifts dramatically.

BTW, listened to this Podcast this AM and it has some very interesting insights. Hidden Forces-The Death of Engagement: America's New Cold War with China. One thing I learned was apparently GHWB sent Scowcroft on a secret mission to China just after the Beijing riots and basically pleaded with China NOT to disengage. How foolish was that decision? Imagine if instead he went the other direction in 89/90 as the Soviets were falling apart and amped up the pressure on China instead of giving them whatever they wanted? The CCP might have fallen back then and certainly the world would be a very different place. Essentially we openly chose the side of the CCP over the protestors. Though if you listen to the Podcast they actually spin it in a positive way which is at best naive.

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Facts on foreign investment growth in China.
May and June increased over 7% YoY. YTD it is down 1%; but the decline was all in the midst of the flu panic in Q1. Longer term trends below...the bigger impact has been Chinese companies pulling back on investmet in the US.

Also noted:
"a March 2020 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that over 80 percent of US companies are not considering relocating their manufacturing out of China. " Cash talks...political rhetoric (and bull****) walks.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/despite-rhetoric-us-china-financial-decoupling-not-happening
https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/rising-foreign-investment-chinese-stocks-and-bonds-shows-deepening-financial

Quote:

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Also noted:

"a March 2020 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that over 80 percent of US companies are not considering relocating their manufacturing out of China. " Cash talks...political rhetoric (and bull****) walks.

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Relocating? I'm surprised it is 80%, that means 20% are. The key is NEW investment. If you are a company looking to set up manufacturing overseas going forward why would you do it in China outside of straight up bribery? There are plenty of other options out there.

You aren't going to see companies walk away from what are often decades long investments in China overnight. It's more about the future and where to invest. Having manufacturing in China seemed risk free 5 years ago, I don't see how anyone could think that now.

aggie93 said:

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Quote:

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Also noted:

"a March 2020 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that over 80 percent of US companies are not considering relocating their manufacturing out of China. " Cash talks...political rhetoric (and bull****) walks.

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Relocating? I'm surprised it is 80%, that means 20% are. The key is NEW investment. If you are a company looking to set up manufacturing overseas going forward why would you do it in China outside of straight up bribery? There are plenty of other options out there.

You aren't going to see companies walk away from what are often decades long investments in China overnight. It's more about the future and where to invest. Having manufacturing in China seemed risk free 5 years ago, I don't see how anyone could think that now.

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Because it still makes the most economic sense. Here's how this works when deciding where to spend the $$ on manufacturing...it's about the after tax $$.

• China still provides huge local and state incentives to manufacture there.
• At the national level, profits in certain industries are still taxed at very different rates from the "avg" tax rate. So, even though the US lowered corporate taxes to the same level as the global "avg" tax rate; for example, tech profits in China are only taxed at 5%. That's 12% - 17% tax advantage off the top for tech industries.
• Most of the manufacturing being off-shored out of China is only that for goods being shipped into the US to avoid the tariffs. That is, companies are not altering their mfg/dist. strategy for the goods they ship to Europe, Asia, LATAM, etc. There's no reason as those regions have not changed tariffs or other incentives.
• For US bound goods; there's an economic cutoff where it doesn't make sense to move the manufacturing because the tariff cost can't be offset due to the sum of 1) other logistics costs 2) higher manufacturing costs in the "new" country 3) lack of production scale driving up per unit costs. So even in those businesses that choose to move to save costs; there's a limit on how much you can economically move. Also, the absolute cost delta between the China and the other locations generally works the more expensive the goods are....but the further down the cost curve you go (things generally below $600); the absolute $$/unit cost difference doesn't make sense anymore.
• There are not many economically viable options for offshoring. There simply isn't manufacturing capacity for most industries in Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, etc. And the supply chain in those countries does not exist. The component parts still have to come from China.
• Chinese industry didn't just roll over and let the production off-shore. Companies cut costs; and absorbed a good portion of the tariff costs...note you didn't see goods inflation in the US from the tariffs...Chinese businesses and local jurisdictions protected their manufacturing base.
• The list goes on....

I think you underestimate the absolute economic incentive that still exists globally, the structural challenges with trying to move and China isn't standing still in the face of external pressure.

You are still talking about moving out of China, I am talking about new investment in China. You also showed that already 20% are at least thinking about moving out of China, that's a massive amount of manufacturing.

The tax incentives exist elsewhere. China can juice it for a while longer with government making up the difference on tariffs and other means (btw, this is EXACTLY what Trump said would happen. The costs are not being sent down to American consumers because the CCP and Chinese manufacturers are terrified about increasing their costs and companies moving out. China doesn't play fair and this is using that against them). Supply lines are still dependent on China but for how much longer?

Japan and Australia are also offering incentives to companies to leave China and Trump is pushing for it as well, especially in Pharma. My main point is if you are a company that is looking at offshore China may still be an option but it has to be seen as a risky one. Who knows where things will be in 5 years.

Another key thing to consider is a lot of this is Xi. He's now got more power than any Chinese leader since Mao and he is driving this adversarial attitude. Will he be taken out and China resets or does the CCP come crashing down? I think China is far more fragile than most realize.

Well, I give you credit for hanging onto a theory. "In theory, theory and practice are the same thing. In practice, they're not." Either Yogi Berra or Einstein observed this...

aggie93 said:

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China doesn't play fair and this is using that against them.

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My friends who do business in China say " you know what they call a fully executed and signed contract with the Chinese? A good first draft."

LOYAL AG said:

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eric76 said:

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Buck Turgidson said:

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There is a reason why Trump is stocking the Fed board with advocates of the gold standard.

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If you think that the King of Debt is going to do anything about it, you are going to be greatly disappointed.

One of his 2016 campaign promises was to get rid of the debt. Look how hard he's been pushing that.

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Your TDS is showing. W doubled the debt. Obama more than doubled the debt. Reagan more than doubled the debt. Prior to Covid Trump wasn't on a course much different than his post-gold standard predecessors. It's way beyond control of the President at this point.

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Conservative voters and politicians(during their campaign only) support less spending and a balanced budget. Republican politicians know once they are elected they can do anything they want...their voters wont hold them accountable.

triplemiller said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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eric76 said:

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Buck Turgidson said:

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There is a reason why Trump is stocking the Fed board with advocates of the gold standard.

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If you think that the King of Debt is going to do anything about it, you are going to be greatly disappointed.

One of his 2016 campaign promises was to get rid of the debt. Look how hard he's been pushing that.

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Your TDS is showing. W doubled the debt. Obama more than doubled the debt. Reagan more than doubled the debt. Prior to Covid Trump wasn't on a course much different than his post-gold standard predecessors. It's way beyond control of the President at this point.

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Conservative voters and politicians(during their campaign only) support less spending and a balanced budget. Republican politicians know once they are elected they can do anything they want...their voters wont hold them accountable.

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Neither side holds their politicians accountable. That's why incumbents get reelected >75% of the time despite Congress having a <25% approval rating. Let's not pretend this is a Republican problem.

aggie93 said:

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japantiger said:

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aggie93 said:

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titan said:

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I agree that we will be the last ones standing simply because as messed up as we are everyone else is worse to catastrophic. China is our only real threat but the problems China has dwarf our worst nightmares. China is way past the point of no return and I can't even see them existing as a country in 20 years. They are a ponzi scheme built on quicksand.

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What do you mean? If you mean their one child policy and lack of women, they are surrounded by land countries in most directions. If they want, they can just go take them, like the old fashioned days of earlier centuries. It was one of the big motives of conquest in fact. They have the power, and the numbers of men that would have little to lose. Wouldn't be so sure they are so "finished."

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Where will they spread out? Mongolia? Sure. North Korea? Already a puppet state. Neither have any real value. They are not crossing the Himalayas and going against India. There is no scenario that works. Invade South Korea? Oof. Good luck with that. I suppose they could try but it didn't work last time and it's less likely to work this time. Russia? If Hitler and Napolean couldn't do it, China sure as hell can't. Vietnam? Good luck with that, it didn't work for us at the height of our power and even if you win you really don't gain much. Japan? The Japanese Navy would sink every ship in their fleet if they tried. If they go East they still have the Himalayas issue with Pakistan so they would have to go through lovely country like Krygystan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkestan, and Afghanistan to get to Iran. Don't see that happening. Taiwan? Assuming we and Japan don't interfere that's possible. The Philippines? Maybe?

China is boxed in. India on one side. Japan on another. South Korea on another. Russia on another. The US also has influence everywhere. They have no oil. They have mediocre food production. They can make things and ship them to sell so long as they have safe shipping lanes (which they can't protect with their own Navy). Generally though they don't have the IP, they copy the IP of others. The knowledge doesn't come out of China because their culture is one that does not promote research, innovation, and risk taking. They are a threat because they have influence. They have a huge population. They have a large standing army. They are a nuclear power. They have massive manufacturing capabilities. Still they have massive weaknesses and flaws. They also have a currency that is basically worthless outside of China, no one wants Yuan because it is so highly manipulated and they print money at levels that make the Fed look like Ebenezer Scrooge.

China stays together because the CCP has been able to hold onto power primarily through bribing it's people with peace (China has spent much of its history in Civil War) and increased standard of living. If that starts to falter, and it is inevitable, it will collapse.

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You last two sentences say it all. The "Party" is everything. As long as the people give their support to the party; China can be it's own self contained feifdom. For better or worse; much of the world is hooked on their supply chain and they have 1.5b consumers. The $$ will still flow to them. The Europeans won't let go; especially the weaker parts of Europe. But neither will the DE or FR as they will do business with any regime. And China is using their $$ to build markets and infrastructure across the rest of SE Asia (Phillipines, Thailand, etc.) and Africa. They are buying influence everywhere in the world with their infrastructure $$ and outright bribes. They are very efficient in their graft overseas. And their domestic press (that is, the Party press) supports their efforts to economically pillage other nations 100%.

Their issue is not land however; they have more of it than they can subjugate today. All their "autonomous" areas are already stretching them (Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.) today to keep under wraps. Their Xinjiang efforts are already taxing their ability to get Han Chinese "occupiers" to volunteer to occupy Uighers homes as it is. Their fear of India is just absolutely pathological. That could result in war; but it will be over a petty border skirmish that could get out of hand; but not anything as bold as vast conquest. The Indians have nukes and no love for China. Pakistan is their oldest ally in the region; recognized the CCCP before any other nation back in the 40's. They are allies. The other 'stan's present too many diverse ethnic considerations for them...no different than Xinjiang.

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All of that is true but the key is there is more to the story. China has been bribing everyone and trying to spread influence but in the end they can't back it up. Don't underestimate the consequences of TikTok. Basically Trump is pushing the Chinese out and they can't do anything about it. Japan is backing away. UK is pushing out Huawei. China can't project militarily only economically and they are pissing in everyone's cheerios. Essentially all of the countries they have been putting on the payroll can just walk and keep the money and China can't do anything to stop them outside of stop bribing them and threatening.

China makes things but very little of what they make can't be made elsewhere. They do have a corner on some rare earth materials but outside of that they are mainly bluffing. In the end they have a house of cards with so many areas it could all come crashing down. Hell that could happen with Three Gorges anytime. It's a country built on payoffs and corruption. The Ghost Cities are a perfect example. Cities built with printed money from Chinese banks to give citizens a way to invest. Only no one lives there and the cities are falling apart. China has poured massive amounts of money into Africa and Belt and Road. Only Africa is never going to pay off for them and Belt and Road inevitably depends on them sending goods through Iran, Russia, or shipping it around the world through seas they don't have any control of.

China is still definitely dangerous. I expect they will engage in a conflict or two (as they are spoiling with India and others) but it is mainly to distract their people from the collapse that is coming. No sane company is going to invest in China. Companies are going to move manufacturing out at an increasing rate. Countries are going to be wary about doing any type of new business with China or Chinese companies. That's death for a Ponzi scheme, they need a constant flow of new investors or else it all falls apart.

Honestly I think how Trump has dealt with China is by far his best work as President. He understood the threat like very few did and he was on the money. He has played them perfectly and has them exposed and on the run. Now they are doing everything they can to take him down and with as many mistakes as Trump has made he has done a great job of making China toxic and I think he has more to come.

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Very well said. People view China as this major threat -- reality is China is in big trouble in the next two decades. Have you paid your dues China? The check is not in the mail.

Prescott Bush set up the American Chamber of Commerce in China and the Bush family, since the 1970's has been in the hip pocket of China. There was never any hope of the US actively or overtly supporting dissent in China. During GeeDubYa's time lots of internal rules and policies in the treasury department, which oversaw customs at the time, were changed that benefitted China.

All the administrations since Reagan, save for Trump, have been pro China and pro CCP, especially the 12 years of the Bush's. Letting China into the WTO, and then basically kow towing to them and ignoring so many of their actions did benefit Ameican consumers in the shallow and short term, but it came at the cost of forcing a rapid change and shift to basically a service economy, that was for the most part unnatural.

China controls so many raw materials and other inputs that a re-balancing of the world economy may prove too painful and disruptive to really do.