The SA v Austin thread got me curious on this. Here are Texas counties of over 300k people. Beto percentage and Hillary percentage. (I don't think this shows any trend because "Beto mania" didn't carry over to Lupe and no reason to think it will carry over to 2020, the democrat number likely falls in line with 2016 numbers)


Harris 58 54
Dallas 66.1 60.8
Tarrant 49.9 43.1
Bexar 59.5 54.2
Travis 74.3 65.8
Collin 46.5 38.9
Hidalgo 68.8 68.5
El Paso 74.4 69.1
Denton 45.5 38.9
Fort Bend 55.7 51.4
Montgomery 27 22.4
Williamson 50.8 41.6
Cameron 62.6 64.5
Brazoria 40.5 35.6
Nueces 50.4 47.1
Bell 44.4 39.8
Galveston 39.7 35.5
Lubbock 35 28.3

most interesting to me is that the only place that didn't fall for Beto mania were Hidalgo and Cameron county.

So looks like Montgomery County remains the most conservative big county, El Paso most liberal with Travis trying to catch them.

That interesting. Beta got like an extra 5-6 ish% per county it seems like over GCF. Who are these people?

It will be interesting to see what happens in the down ballet races now that single click voting has been eliminated. Do these voters care enough to go down the ballot to the state rep race, DA race, etc..

78_Pacecar said:

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It will be interesting to see what happens in the down ballet races now that single click voting has been eliminated. Do these voters care enough to go down the ballot to the state rep race, DA race, etc..

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I think that is going to make a very big difference that many far underestimate. Its not even certain which party it will benefit more, but it is going to make a difference.

And to a suffrage purist, they would be satisfied either way. Theoretically you want every vote to be an informed or invested in it, one.

Proud product of Montgomery County.

BenFiasco14 said:

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That interesting. Beta got like an extra 5-6 ish% per county it seems like over GCF. Who are these people?

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People enamored with media defined style and zeitgeist over substance.

BenFiasco14 said:

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That interesting. Beta got like an extra 5-6 ish% per county it seems like over GCF. Who are these people?

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Soccer moms who got all horny for O'Dork.

Cruz didn't campaign much until the last minute, and he has had some rocky history. I don't agree with this in principal, but I think some of that 5ish percent likely did in favor of beto.

I literally saw almost no Cruz signs in yards until the last week before voting. When I went to get a Cruz sign I had to pay for it at the local GOP office if that gives you any indication.

There were beto signs everywhere (wonder who really paid for all of those signs....)

It really helped Beto that no one really knew anything about him, so he could play the part of a fun candidate. Hillary... can't. He also campaigned a LOT in Texas, Hillary (and Cruz) really didn't.

I would love to see how many Beto voters regret that choice after he went full wacko in the presidential campaign. He was actually humiliated. I don't know too many people who want to support a loser who wasn't lovable.

Up here along the DEW line, Potter and Randall County are almost one county. Amarillo is the county seat for Potter, but about 2/3 of the city is in Randall County. Both are fairly "red", but Randall (county seat, Canyon) is a heck of a lot redder.

Total population combined (255,000) would bring them in at about #22 in size, just after Jefferson County. Randall is 134,500, Potter 120,500

Trump vs Hilllary 2016
Potter: 69 v 27
Randall: 81 v 16
Combined: 75 v 21

Cruz v Irish Guy 2018
Potter 68 v 31
Randall 79 v 20
Combined 74 v 25

The interesting thing to me is that the (R) vote didn't change much, but a lot of the Beto fans must have gone 3rd party in the Presidential.

for Potter, Beto got 7521 total votes compared to 7657 for Hillary.

Who wants to bet there were more votes cast in Cameron, Hidalgo, et al, than registered voters?

BMX Bandit said:

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for Potter, Beto got 7521 total votes compared to 7657 for Hillary.

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I was just running percentages. Different turnouts and different number of candidates could skew things. Bottom line, even with the (D) votes in Potter, the two counties were among the most conservative metro area in Texas.

For fun, look at some of the low population counties in the Panhandle. Roberts County, for example. Total votes 530. Hillary got 20. In the Senate Race, 460 votes cast, Beto got 19.

One possibility for Hillary having a lower percentage of the vote is that she is genuinely unliked around here. A number of Trump votes were more like anti-Hillary votes.

Denton County's numbers would be a lot better without the City of Denton.

Considering there are two universities where every student is pushed hard on campus to go vote liberal and old central/north Denton is Austin-level way left liberal, the rest of the county came in strong to counter the liberals.

White liberals are the absolute fuggin worst. The are going to ruin the greatest state to ever exist on a long enough timeline.

Out here, everyone keeps yelling to keep "Fort Bend red", or "lets turn Fort Bend purple", however looks to me like it's already blue.

The Democrat Party didn't bother holding primaries in my county from 2000 to 2012. In 2016, the turnout in the Democratic Primary was something like 36.

BenFiasco14 said:

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That interesting. Beta got like an extra 5-6 ish% per county it seems like over GCF. Who are these people?

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Suburban housewives who got all creamy for beta

I think the thrill wore off quickly though

Williamson County is in trouble, glad I got out of there.

Beto was the like the foreign exchange student from France my senior year of high school.

He dressed like a euro and sounded cool and so different and exciting. All the girls were in love with him. Then someone convinced him to join Football. He quit after a week because he didn't like hitting or getting hit then openly mocked the sport to anyone that would listen. As the weeks went on be basically complained about everything. Everything we did was wrong. Our food sucked. No culture. The US was a bully. The guidance counselor suggested that maybe he would be happier at home so at Christmas he left. And no one noticed.

Thinice said:

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Williamson County is in trouble, glad I got out of there.

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Californicated

Not really. The poors of Travis can't afford to live in Austin, so they moved to Williamson

A little of both

Updated with 2020 results.

Numbers are Biden, Beto, Hillary

Harris 55.8 58 54
Dallas 64.9 66.1 60.8
Tarrant 49.3 49.9 43.1
Bexar 58.3 59.5 54.2
Travis 71.4 74.3 65.8
Collin 46.8 46.5 38.9
Hidalgo 58 68.8 68.5
El Paso 66.3 74.4 69.1
Denton 45.1 45.5 38.9
Fort Bend 54.5 55.7 51.4
Montgomery 27.4 27 22.4
Williamson 49.5 50.8 41.6
Cameron 56 62.6 64.5
Brazoria 40.1 40.5 35.6
Nueces 47.8 50.4 47.1
Bell 44.5 44.4 39.8
Galveston 37.9 39.7 35.5
Lubbock 33.1 35 28.3

Hidalgo and Cameron county had 10 and 8 points less for Biden than Hillary.

Collin County 8 points more for Biden than Hillary

Updated with 2022 results.

Numbers are Beto 22, Biden, Beto 18, Hillary

Harris 54 55.8 58 54
Dallas 62.8 64.9 66.1 60.8
Tarrant 47.2 49.3 49.9 43.1
Bexar 57.5 58.3 59.5 54.2
Travis 72.6 71.4 74.3 65.8
Collin 44.3 46.8 46.5 38.9
Hidalgo 58.5 58 68.8 68.5
El Paso 63.4 66.3 74.4 69.1
Denton 42,9 45.1 45.5 38.9
Fort Bend 51.6 54.5 55.7 51.4
Montgomery 25.3 27.4 27 22.4
Williamson 48.9 49.5 50.8 41.6
Cameron 54 56 62.6 64.5
Brazoria 39.5 40.1 40.5 35.6
Nueces 45.3 47.8 50.4 47.1
Bell 39.5 44.5 44.4 39.8
Galveston 36.3 37.9 39.7 35.5
Lubbock 29.2 33.1 35 28.3

Beto down in every county except Travis county compared to Biden. i doubt he reads the tea leaves, but this should tell him "beto mania" is over.

Updated with 2024 results.

Numbers: Kamala 25, Allred 24, Beto 22, Biden 20, Beto 18, Hillary 16, change from Hillary to kamala

Harris 51.9 54.3 54 55.8 58 54 -2.1
Dallas 60.1 63 62.8 64.9 66.1 60.8 -.07
Tarrant 46.7 48.9 47.2 49.3 49.9 43.1 +3.6
Bexar 54.3 56.8 57.5 58.3 59.5 54.2 +.01
Travis 68.7 70.4 72.6 71.4 74.3 65.8 +2.9
Collin 43 46.2 44.3 46.8 46.5 38.9 +4.1
Hidalgo 48.1 52 58.5 58 68.8 68.5 -20.4
El Paso 56.9 57.9 63.4 66.3 74.4 69.1 -12.2
Denton 42.6 44.7 42.9 45.1 45.5 38.9 +3.7
Fort Bend 49.4 52.4 51.6 54.5 55.7 51.4 -2
Montgomery 26.8 28.3 25.3 27.4 27 22.4 +4.4
Williamson 47.9 49.4 48.9 49.5 50.8 41.6 +6.3
Cameron 46.7 50.9 54 56 62.6 64.5 -17.8
Brazoria 39.5 41.5 39.5 40.1 40.5 35.6 +3.9
Nueces 43.7 46 45.3 47.8 50.4 47.1 -3.4
Bell 41.3 42.8 39.5 44.5 44.4 39.8 +1.5
Galveston 35.7 37.4 36.3 37.9 39.7 35.5 +2.2
Lubbock 29.7 30.2 29.2 33.1 35 28.3 +1.4

Every big county went Allred more than Kamala. still a small contingency out there that just doesn't like Cruz. not enough to matter thankfully.

Those presidential numbers in Hidalgo, El Paso and Cameron are pretty remarkable.

on raw numbers, In Hidalgo County, Trump went from 48,642 votes in 2016 to 110,541 in 2024.

Very interesting. Trump must have been running some greats ads in RGV. That is a massive 8 year swing. The dems should give up on their make Texas blue wet dream

This topic pushed me to focus on Allreds congressional district. TX32.

This district is now about 68% Hispanic/Black/Asian. The Democrat that just won this district is a white middle aged lesbian.

I realize that because Allred was running for senate both primaries for this district would be open primaries so neither party knows who they are running against.

But good lord. How does a middle aged white lesbian win a district like this by 23 points?

Judging by the turnout numbers, it's pretty easy. The Dems won because of very low voter engagement.

TX 32 needs its own version of Scott Presler over the next two years. I don't really know anything about this district, but it looks to be Eastern Dallas and parts of North Dallas Burbs. You can't tell me that the Latino, Black, and Asian communities of TX 32 want to be represented by some Middle aged white lady who seems to have made a career out of LGBT activism in state government and ran(according to campaign ad i just watched) on taking the LGBT fight to US Congress. Is there a huge minority LGBT community in East and North Dallas I've never heard of?

This doesn't make any sense to me and tells me the GOP of Texas still has a lot to learn from GOP of Florida. They are missing opportunities to maximize voter turnout and making their case to minority communities that are currently nonvoters.

TX-32 was drawn specifically to be a democrat district. the state legislature draws the district to put as many democrats as possible in it. they do this so they can have more safe republican districts and fewer "toss up" districts. same thing with TX-7

BMX Bandit said:

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TX-32 was drawn specifically to be a democrat district. the state legislature draws the district to put as many democrats as possible in it. they do this so they can have more safe republican districts and fewer "toss up" districts. same thing with TX-7

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Yes I know. That's my point of bringing it up. D+12 is only a registration number. It's not written in stone where all voters living in that district must fall in line. As evidenced by the shifts in voting across the state of Texas this week. I grew up in the Valley. Right next to Starr County and Hidalgo County. If Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron can go Trump, the right GOP candidate can certainly flip TX 32. Only 229k people voted in 32 the other night. I'm guessing that the Latino vote was very very low and the democrats counted on it and whoever the GOP candidate was could not capitalize on the fact that the Democrat primary voter in 32 chose a Middle Aged white lesbian to represent them. It's a huge miss.

The GOP has to capture a vision for making their case to voters in urban areas and go make their case. Especially in states like Texas. This is why Miami-Dade just went Trump. Dallas, Harris, and Bexar counties could vote GOP. The party has to get on the ground and make their case to the nonvoters. There are tons of them!

The four RGV counties voting for Trump is astounding, yet logical. Starr Cty voting for a GOP POTUS for the first time since 1896. I guess when you're on the front lines of a war and the administration ignores you it changes things.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in Tarrant County Primary Early Voting, and nope, trend continues.

After 5 days of EV, Democrats have now outvoted Republicans by over 14k votes. It gets bigger every day. The Dem / Rep ratio is 1.38. We have not been here before. pic.twitter.com/jQKCcAJmeO

— Chris Tackett (aka See It Name It Fight It) (@cjtackett) February 22, 2026

Does Tarrant flip in November?