Bayside Tiger Ag said:

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Quote:

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Quit with the independent crap. You are a plain old Republican.

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lol I guess that's why I'm pro gay marriage, pro choice, pro amnesty, for the reduction of military size, non religious, etc. I'm about as independent as it gets and I routinely vote for democrats on down ticket elections. But keep pretending you've got me all figured out.

Don't be pissed because you can't think for yourself like an independent.

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Sounds like you are not so much an independent as you are a liberal. There has been an evolution in terminology. Once liberals hated that label, they started calling themselves progressives. And now they call themselves independents.

WES2006AG said:

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What has changed in the methodology of the polls or the institutions creating them that has caused this board to become such a believer in polls that they believed were inaccurate only a week ago?

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Three things have changed in the last one to two weeks:

1. Obamacare sticker shock -- people hit with 50%+ increases in health care cost, and pissed about it.

2. WikiLeaks -- dropping more and more emails that are unfavorable for HRC.

3. FBI Investigation reopened -- enough said.

The question is... "how much has this changed people's preference for president?" And is it accurately captured in the polls? And does voter turnout match what the pollsters predict?

We won't really know the answer until next Tuesday.

Vernada said:

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No over sampling dismissals in this thread? Weird.

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Look up. I proposed that the ARG New Hampshire poll over sampled republicans.

WES2006AG said:

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The people hanging their hats on this polling data today are the same people who didn't believe the polling data when Hillary was up as recently as last week.

What has changed in the methodology of the polls or the institutions creating them that has caused this board to become such a believer in polls that they believed were inaccurate only a week ago?

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Still is rigged, Trump is winning by bigger margins than what are coming out. This is why Clinton is sending people to Michigan and putting all her thugs in Philadelphia before and on election day.. She has went from Florida and NC being her firewall, to defending Michigan and putting a huge firewall in Philly.

It's like WW2 but instead of Nazi being surrounded in Berlin, it's Clinton Camp surrounded in Philly. Funny they are making their stand in possibly the most corrupt city in the past two elections

libertyag said:

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Bayside Tiger Ag said:

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Quote:

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Quit with the independent crap. You are a plain old Republican.

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lol I guess that's why I'm pro gay marriage, pro choice, pro amnesty, for the reduction of military size, non religious, etc. I'm about as independent as it gets and I routinely vote for democrats on down ticket elections. But keep pretending you've got me all figured out.

Don't be pissed because you can't think for yourself like an independent.

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Sounds like you are not so much an independent as you are a liberal. There has been an evolution in terminology. Once liberals hated that label, they started calling themselves progressives. And now they call themselves independents.

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If I'm a liberal why I am against gun control, affirmative action, Obamacare and UHC, for reduced taxes across the board, against most global warming controls, anti-union, etc?

West Point Aggie said:

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You have to admit...the newsrooms at several biased outlets would be covered in brain matter from the hundreds of consecutive head explosions...

Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow would literally atomize!

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Watching the Today Show the day after a Clinton defeat would be incredible!

Romney should have won, but white vote turnout doomed Romney.
Trump wins because:
1. Surge and record turnout of white votes
2. Black votes on Immigration issue
3. Hispanic votes on immigration issue

e=mc2 said:

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West Point Aggie said:

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You have to admit...the newsrooms at several biased outlets would be covered in brain matter from the hundreds of consecutive head explosions...

Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow would literally atomize!

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Watching the Today Show the day after a Clinton defeat would be incredible!

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They'd probably cancel it.

The left will literally freak out if Trump wins. They will all be harbingers of doom. Yet not one of the celebrities that threatened to move will likely move, so that a bummer.

Dad-O-Lot said:

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Kellso said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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Kellso said:

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The Democrats have structural advantages in Presidential Elections which you all still do not comprehend.

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But it's not rigged...

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Its not.

Here is what conservatives don't want to understand. Elections are just a game of numbers.
If your side has 20 voters and my side has 21 voters.....I win.

You could have 100 of the most fired up, ready to go Republicans aka Likely Voters and If I bring 98 of My Likely Voters plus 40 Unlikely Voters....Guess What? I still win

An Unlikely Voters vote counts just as much as a likely voter.

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I think you miss two major things in your calculations:

1) Trump has the advantage with "unlikely" voters

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How do you figure?

I'm going to fill you in on a little secret. I am going to tell you how Obama won Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.
It is also the key to how the pollsters did not see Obama beating Romney in the Electoral College 332-206.

This is also why I know that Hillary is going to win big on Tuesday night.

After the 2012 election people were asking me how I predicted that Obama was going to win big, and I stated that where the Right got suckered was in an over reliance of polls that used the term "Likely Voter"

Likely Voters are you guys. White people between the age of 35-70. They are people that follow politics and take it very seriously. They vote in every election.
Unlikely voters tend to be Blacks, Hispanics and young people from the age of 18-24.

If you get people that do not traditionally vote to the polls it will skew the normal polls that are typically measuring only "Likely Voters". An Unlikely voters vote counts just as much as a likely voter.

But hey.....what the hell do I know. Trump is just going to magically make up this huge deficit with Non white voters in the last 7 days of the election.

I want so badly to believe that Trump is going to win I am willing to ignore the mountain of data that shows that his chances of winning are slim. Some polls are now giving me good news and here is my chance to (prematurely) touchdown dance and talk noise to the Left.

You all see what will happen on Tuesday night. I do not want any of you to say that I did not warn you what was going to happen.

Aggie4Life02 said:

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Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to steal elections.

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I've been saying this for a while. Since 2008 they have been working on and put in place an infrastructure of voter fraud in key states which is going to give them a permanent path to the whitehouse. It would take a massive turn out of fed up people to counter their fraud and with the apathy of most mouth breathing americans, that ain't gonna happen. Democrats have been playing chess while republicans have been playing checkers. Checkmate was in 2012. We were just too stupid to realize it.

Kellso said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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Kellso said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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Kellso said:

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The Democrats have structural advantages in Presidential Elections which you all still do not comprehend.

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But it's not rigged...

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Its not.

Here is what conservatives don't want to understand. Elections are just a game of numbers.
If your side has 20 voters and my side has 21 voters.....I win.

You could have 100 of the most fired up, ready to go Republicans aka Likely Voters and If I bring 98 of My Likely Voters plus 40 Unlikely Voters....Guess What? I still win

An Unlikely Voters vote counts just as much as a likely voter.

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I think you miss two major things in your calculations:

1) Trump has the advantage with "unlikely" voters

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How do you figure?

I'm going to fill you in on a little secret. I am going to tell you how Obama won Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.
It is also the key to how the pollsters did not see Obama beating Romney in the Electoral College 332-206.

This is also why I know that Hillary is going to win big on Tuesday night.

After the 2012 election people were asking me how I predicted that Obama was going to win big, and I stated that where the Right got suckered was in an over reliance of polls that used the term "Likely Voter"

Likely Voters are you guys. White people between the age of 35-70. They are people that follow politics and take it very seriously. They vote in every election.
Unlikely voters tend to be Blacks, Hispanics and young people from the age of 18-24.

If you get people that do not traditionally vote to the polls it will skew the normal polls that are typically measuring only "Likely Voters". An Unlikely voters vote counts just as much as a likely voter.

But hey.....what the hell do I know. Trump is just going to magically make up this huge deficit with Non white voters in the last 7 days of the election.

I want so badly to believe that Trump is going to win I am willing to ignore the mountain of data that shows that his chances of winning are slim. Some polls are now giving me good news and here is my chance to (prematurely) touchdown dance and talk noise to the Left.

You all see what will happen on Tuesday night. I do not want any of you to say that I did not warn you what was going to happen.

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That's a very good post. I sure hope you are wrong, but I haven't studied the individual polls.

AgNav93 said:

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Aggie4Life02 said:

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Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to steal elections.

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I've been saying this for a while. Since 2008 they have been working on and put in place an infrastructure of voter fraud in key states which is going to give them a permanent path to the whitehouse. It would take a massive turn out of fed up people to counter their fraud and with the apathy of most mouth breathing americans, that ain't gonna happen. Democrats have been playing chess while republicans have been playing checkers. Checkmate was in 2012. We were just too stupid to realize it.

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Everything in this post is correct except for the term "voter fraud."

Voter fraud is what a sore loser would say. Do you know that voter participation rates in United States elections are only like 55%?

The Democrats model to winning elections is increasing turnout among people that do not normally vote. What makes the United States the greatest country in the World is One Man= One vote.

Subsequently the reason the GOP does so well in Mid term elections is that very few people vote. The turnout tend to be incredibly low in non presidential elections.

Democrats know exactly what they are doing when they have Pop Stars, Musicians and Actors on MTV and E Online talking about:
"I don't care who you vote for....just ROCK the VOTE"

They are targeting this message to a voting Demographic that is more receptive to their message that might not normally vote. You won't see to many of those Rock to Vote commercials on the Hunting and Wildlife channel.

But I don't Know what Im talking about. Trump is going to kick ass on November 8. All the forecasting and the polls are wrong.

Polls don't reflect lib cheating.

When they say Hillary is mobilizing in certain states, that probably means something different than what a lot of folks think.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f10aec20836843bc9b21948d8dc720b8/obama-worries-black-vote-not-solid-enough-clinton

Quote:

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An Associated Press analysis of early voting data in North Carolina shows blacks have cast 111,000 fewer ballots than at this point four years ago, when Obama lost the state by about 92,000 votes.

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And this is just one state.

The idea that "unlikely voter" enthusiasm for Hillary is the same as it was for Obama in 2012 is based on blind assumption...not fact.

This is anyone's election. Don't let the ignorant tell you otherwise.

Gigem314 said:

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http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f10aec20836843bc9b21948d8dc720b8/obama-worries-black-vote-not-solid-enough-clinton

Quote:

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An Associated Press analysis of early voting data in North Carolina shows blacks have cast 111,000 fewer ballots than at this point four years ago, when Obama lost the state by about 92,000 votes.

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And this is just one state.

The idea that "unlikely voter" enthusiasm for Hillary is the same as it was for Obama in 2012 is based on blind assumption...not fact.

This is anyone's election. Don't let the ignorant tell you otherwise.

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Its not anyone election. Donald Trump has almost no chance of winning.

The cool think about all this trash talking is that in less than a week we get to see who is right and who is wrong.

This board is making the exact same arguments that you guys did in 2012. You all were foaming at the mouth at the thought of President Obama being a one term president.

Trump has to be outside the margin of fraud, which he is not.

The Democrat machine will steal elections that are within a few percentage points.

The difference between 2012 and 2016 is candidate likeability. Turnout will be important and Hillary will not get Obama level turnout with all of the negative attention.

JBAggie00 said:

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The difference between 2012 and 2016 is candidate likeability. Turnout will be important and Hillary will not get Obama level turnout with all of the negative attention.

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Yep.

There's a reason the polls have tightened. There's a reason the Clinton camp is scrambling and sending out Obama to 'rile up' the unlikely voters.

This is nothing like 2012. Trump may not win, but I don't see either candidate winning in a landslide. The lack of voter enthusiasm, particular on the dem side, cannot be ignored.

But facts and context aren't important to those whose only narrative is "The democrat will win in a blowout every time...it's already a certainty!".

TurkeyBaconLeg said:

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I have been predicting a landslide Trump victory on this board since June 2016.

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I hope you are correct. And not because I like Trump. I think he has come along at a time in our countries history when we need a political outsider to shake up our political class. Trump has said he has been affected by traveling the country and talking to people from across the land. Ben Carson travels with him and has said he sees a change in him. Trump may be, as many have said, a terrible president. But right now with the problems we have we need someone like him, if nothing else, to shake things up. A landslide by Trump will be a reset.

Fox News reporting:
NH now toss up
OH now lean Trump
IN solid Republican
MO solid Republican

There will be plenty of cushion, enough to be out of reach of corruption

I might actually have to watch the liberal media if Trump pulls this off. I used to watch Fox and CNN every night to get both takes, but CNN just got way too biased for me. Not that Fox isn't...every network spins. I got turned off by CNN when they wouldn't call out BLM supporters for their violence (or as CNN says "peaceful" protesting).

I would love to see the look on their faces.

Let's just say you are arrogant. It has hurt you before and it will hurt you again.

Just because people don't view the world through your self-serving and biased views means that they are stupid.

Let me tell you how I know you are wrong. Blacks and Latinos are tired of Hillary's lies and they are going to stay home....at least more so than they voted for Obama. Blacks voted in record numbers for Obama because he was black. They won't show up for Hillary because she is a liar.

Romney did not have a lead in enough states in 2012 to win the electoral college. Trump does.

Yes it could change but it likely won't. Nothing good is going to come out for Hillary between now and Tuesday morning. People have liar fatigue! They did not have liar fatigue in 2012. They apparently had white fatigue. Doesn't really help HRC now does it.

You sound just like Rachel Madcow. Facts be damned. The election is Trump's to lose as of now.

He leads in Colorado. He leads in Arizona. He leads in Nevada. He leads in New Hampshire. He leads in Ohio. He leads in Florida. He leads in North Carolina. He leads in Iowa.

If you can to the math you will recognize that that gives him more than 269.

It may change but it likely won't.

No the forecasting polls are right. You just don't like the results.

Trump actually leads HRC in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia. That is enough to send Hillary straight to prison for being the bad person that she is.

Kellso has a problem with math. Probably had a liberal arts degree.

Keep in mind this guy is a Baylor fan and used to say that the only way Briles would leave would be for the Dallas Cowboys job.

I'd take what he says with a 5 pound bag of salt.

Just bring up the rape scandal and he disappears.

Kellso said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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Kellso said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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Kellso said:

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The Democrats have structural advantages in Presidential Elections which you all still do not comprehend.

---

But it's not rigged...

---

Its not.

Here is what conservatives don't want to understand. Elections are just a game of numbers.
If your side has 20 voters and my side has 21 voters.....I win.

You could have 100 of the most fired up, ready to go Republicans aka Likely Voters and If I bring 98 of My Likely Voters plus 40 Unlikely Voters....Guess What? I still win

An Unlikely Voters vote counts just as much as a likely voter.

---

I think you miss two major things in your calculations:

1) Trump has the advantage with "unlikely" voters

---

How do you figure?

I'm going to fill you in on a little secret. I am going to tell you how Obama won Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.
It is also the key to how the pollsters did not see Obama beating Romney in the Electoral College 332-206.

This is also why I know that Hillary is going to win big on Tuesday night.

After the 2012 election people were asking me how I predicted that Obama was going to win big, and I stated that where the Right got suckered was in an over reliance of polls that used the term "Likely Voter"

Likely Voters are you guys. White people between the age of 35-70. They are people that follow politics and take it very seriously. They vote in every election.
Unlikely voters tend to be Blacks, Hispanics and young people from the age of 18-24.

If you get people that do not traditionally vote to the polls it will skew the normal polls that are typically measuring only "Likely Voters". An Unlikely voters vote counts just as much as a likely voter.

But hey.....what the hell do I know. Trump is just going to magically make up this huge deficit with Non white voters in the last 7 days of the election.

I want so badly to believe that Trump is going to win I am willing to ignore the mountain of data that shows that his chances of winning are slim. Some polls are now giving me good news and here is my chance to (prematurely) touchdown dance and talk noise to the Left.

You all see what will happen on Tuesday night. I do not want any of you to say that I did not warn you what was going to happen.

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Can you warn is some more.

WES2006AG said:

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I guess you could draw a conclusion similar to yours IF you believe the polls

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You sure could.

Kelso

lol


Kelso

Kellso said:

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Bayside Tiger Ag said:

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Kellso said:

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You guys on the right are getting conned. This is 2012 all over again. TV stations do this to guys so you will tune in and watch their advertising.

Donald Trump is not going to win the election.

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I'm an independent. I don't care who wins because I hate both. But you have to be an idiot to not see that trump has real momentum and a plausible path to victory. I still think Hillary wins but it's not the slam dunk it was a week ago.

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Quit with the independent crap. You are a plain old Republican. Donald Trump is not going to win the election. He's just isn't. The Democrats have structural advantages in Presidential Elections which you all still do not comprehend.

Do you know how a con man works? He tells people what they want to hear. He does this with such a conviction that people will want to believe him.
That is what the pollsters are doing to you guys on the RIGHT at this moment. They are doing this so you will tune in to CNN, Fox News, MSNBC..etc and watch the commercials that are on their networks.

This is exactly what happened in 2012. According to the pollsters Romney vs Obama was supposed to be a razor tight election. I remember people on this board thinking that Romney was going to win big and being shocked when he got his ass kicked.

I've bookmarked this thread and we will see who the idiot is on Tuesday night. We will get to see who knows their stuff, and who does not know what they hell they are talking about.

I'm 100% certain that I will be right.

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I noticed you back on the board again since your hiatus from November 6th till late May. Care to address? So smug after all these years and now just dead ass wrong about everything.

Ouch. Kellso looking really bad ITT