Domestic box office predictions for remainder of 2019

5,152 Views | 49 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by The Collective
Brian Earl Spilner
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There's some pretty big movies still on the horizon for this year, and some really big question marks in terms of box office. (Take a look at Godzilla's lackluster opening, Brightburn's total flop, etc.)

What do you think will be the big grossers and possible flops for the remainder of the year? Here's my predictions.

Blockbusters ($600M+):
  • Spider-Man: Far From Home
  • Toy Story 4
  • The Lion King
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
No explanation needed on any of these, I assume. If any is a risk to stall out in the 500-600 range, I think it might be TS4. Other than that, the only real question is how much higher than 600 any of these can go.

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Smash hits ($300M+):
  • F&F: Hobbs & Shaw
  • Joker
  • Frozen 2
Seeing as Venom was such a success ($213M), I think Joker should easily reach that and more. I think it could go up as high as $300M if it's critically acclaimed. And Hobbs & Shaw has two beloved action stars and is piggybacking off a massively popular franchise. Frozen 2 could possibly reach into the higher tier, but I think it will probably land in the 500-600 range.

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Moderate hits ($200M+):
  • Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
  • Ford v Ferrari
  • It: Chapter 2
  • Secret Life of Pets 2
Tarantino has never made a movie which got to $200M. I think this could be the one to do it, especially with the strength of that amazing cast. But the critical acclaim will be vital to it hitting that, imo. Similarly, FvF should do gangbusters due to its cast, plus, everybody loves cars. And It Chapter 2 is coming off the massively successful first chapter, but I just don't think it can quite replicate that again. It'll do really well, but not $300M+ territory.

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Question marks:
  • Ad Astra
  • Terminator: Dark Fate
  • Maleficent 2
  • Child's Play
  • Jumanji Sequel
  • Charlie's Angels
  • Cats
The biggest question mark for me here is Ad Astra. Sure, it's got Brad Pitt, but there is almost zero buzz surrounding this movie outside of people who are really plugged into Hollywood. But, if it's good, this could be another Gravity. As for Terminator, it's got a string of mediocre sequels behind it, which could kill any potential hype for the return of Linda Hamilton. (I do hope I'm wrong on this one.)

I could see Child's Play maybe having some success due to counter-programming with Toy Story 4. I'm not sure of its budget, but it probably doesn't need to make much more than ~$80M to break even.

And any other year, I'd say Maleficent 2 is sure to do well, but because this year is so jam-packed with Disney, this one may fall by the wayside a bit.

And because we haven't seen anything of the Jumanji sequel, the Charlie's Angels reboot, or Cats, I'm throwing them in here. Though, Cats is counter-programming with Star Wars, so that could help it quite a bit.

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Flops:
  • Dark Phoenix
  • MIB International
  • Scary Stories
  • Gemini Man
I have a funny feeling that we have a MASSIVE flop incoming with Dark Phoenix, worse than Godzilla.

I forgot to even list MIB International and Gemini Man when I posted, so that should tell you everything about those.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Ok, I think I should have most of the major releases in there now.
Yoda
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Good list, but I think 4 films in the $600+ category is too many. All time, there have only been 10 films to cross that barrier domestically. Granted, half have been in the last 2 years. I don't see Spider-Man coming close, as homecoming made about half that. Toy Story 3 did $415M, and I think most agree it was an excellent cap to the trilogy. Not sure enthusiasm is high enough for another entry right now to make me believe it will surpass TS3.

Lion King has a shot if it receives great reviews. Even Star Wars could struggle to get there unless JJ delivers a film which is embraced. Last Jedi topped out at just a bit over $600M, and left a skeptical fan base in its wake.
Brian Earl Spilner
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My reasoning for Spider-Man is this:

It's coming off the biggest Marvel movie of all time.
Spider-Man is Marvel's most popular superhero.
Incredibles 2 broke the $600M barrier.
Early tracking (and trailer views) has been insane.

I know 4 movies seems like a lot to hit that mark, but it's just a crazy year.

Now, I do think there could be a case of Disney cannibalizing itself with Spider-Man and Toy Story within weeks of each other, but I feel like TS4 is the one that will take the bigger hit than Spider-Man.

Edit: Forgot Spider-Man is Sony, not Disney. Still, makes me wonder why Disney would sandwich Toy Story between Spider-Man and Lion King. They really should have moved either TS4 or Lion King.
Brian Earl Spilner
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And I highly doubt Star Wars struggles to hit 600, because it's the grand finale. And if it's really good, sky's the limit.
GiveEmHellBill
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"Joker" will get good reviews and will be well-liked by audiences, but I doubt it hits $100 million domestic. It looks too "art house" and I don't think the average movie-goer will want to see that. It will be considered a success and a win for DC....just not financially. Hell, "Shazam" was the best-reviewed DCEU movie and was well-liked....yet only made $140 million.

"MIB International" will do fair-to-middling. Not good, not bad. Just meh. The incessant tie-ins in commercials with NBA stars that just started up make me think that they are trying to saturate us with this film because they know they have an under-performer on their hands. Overdoing it with the crossover marketing is never a good sign.

Frozen 2 will be huge. Huge. Of course it'll be hard to match the original, but you have to realize the depth of love for this franchise. I've been to Disney twice since the movie came out (humblebrag just got back a few days ago) and more kids (especially girls) care about Frozen than any other Disney princess and it's not even close. The original did $400 million domestic and I see this one as possibly doing better.

"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" will top out at around $125 million (and I can see it not hitting $100 million). Everyone loves QT, but his movies never make a ton of money in the theater.

"It: Chapter 2" will do very well. I doubt it will open to the insane numbers the first one did, but I bet it has legs and at least matches the first one's take of $325 million.

"Terminator: Dark Fate" will be yet another flop
BEaggie08
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Depending on what its up against, I think the Jumanji sequel will do well considering it was a surprise, had good word of mouth and made over 400 domestically (almost a billion worldwide).
Gig-Em2003
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Calling my shots:

  • Spider-Man: Far From Home - $450,000,000
  • Toy Story 4 - $375,000,000
  • The Lion King - $575,000,000
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - $825,000,000
  • F&F: Hobbs & Shaw - $295,000,000
  • Joker - $160,000,000
  • Frozen 2 - $525,000,000
  • Once Upon A Time In Hollywood $140,000,000
  • Ford v Ferrari - $195,000,000
  • It: Chapter 2 - $175,000,000
  • Ad Astra - $85,000,000
  • Terminator: Dark Fate - $110,000,000
  • Maleficent 2 - $95,000,000
  • Child's Play - $125,000,000
  • Jumanji Sequel - $250,000,000
  • Charlie's Angels - $75,000,000
  • Cats - $90,000,000
  • Dark Phoenix - $110,000,000
  • MIB International - $150,000,000
  • Scary Stories - $70,000,000
  • Gemini Man - $ 70,000,000
Rex Racer
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I think Frozen 2 is being under-estimated here. How many little girls will go see this with their parents multiple times? And look at what Frozen did at the box office.
Duncan Idaho
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Add that this is by far the best live action spiderman. All the others have been so bad the electric company spiderman was better.
Duncan Idaho
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Rex Racer said:

I think Frozen 2 is being under-estimated here. How many little girls will go see this with their parents multiple times? And look at what Frozen did at the box office.

Stop being such a contrarian, Let it go.
veryfuller
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AG
I just don't see any way Spider-man breaks $400 million. I think a lot of people will be stepping off the Marvel train after Endgame.

Toy Story 4 maybe breaks $400 million, but it wont be by much.

The Lion King will do about as good as Beauty and the Beast did, so probably $500 - $550 million

Star Wars is a real question mark. I think it breaks $600 million, but whether it has the legs or opening weekend to get it over $700 or $800 is questionable.

Frozen 2 could break $400 million...maybe.

Other than that, I don't see anything getting out of the $300 million range, unless something is just SO good and has great word of mouth and a long run.... but that would be a surprise which does happen.
rhutton125
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A lot of this depends on box office competition, at least for your less-titanic releases. Summer 2016 had a different #1 almost each weekend, so few studios were really happy. I don't know anything about domestic numbers, but here are some release dates to consider:

6/7 - Dark Phoenix
6/7 - Secret Life of Pets 2
6/14 - Men In Black International
6/14 - Shaft
6/21 - Toy Story 4
7/2 - Spider-Man: Far From Home
7/19 - The Lion King
7/26 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8/2 - Hobbs & Shaw
8/2 - Dora the Explorer?
8/16 - Angry Birds 2
8/23 - Angel has Fallen
9/6 - It: Chapter 2


Looks like some decent space for Toy Story, Spider-Man and Lion King to work with. Less so for Dark Phoenix - I think that one is pretty boned as far as long-term legs.
Duncan Idaho
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I think Hobbs and Shaw will either make $600+ or less than $100.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Quote:

I just don't see any way Spider-man breaks $400 million. I think a lot of people will be stepping off the Marvel train after Endgame.
I know I definitely am, I just didn't think it would be a widespread thing.

If this happens then yeah, this doesn't get anywhere close 600 or even 500. I may be overestimating it due to the crazy trailer views.
Cancelled
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Is the new Charlie's angels going to follow the trend and use an all male cast with a femal Charlie?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Hemsworth, Pratt, Tatum
bonfarr
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Ad Astra is in its 3rd delay so expect a train wreck of a film when it is finally released. They havent promoted it or issued a trailer yet.
FriendlyAg
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Hemsworth, Pratt, Tatum


Jennifer Anniston as Charlie
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Eesh. Dark Phoenix sitting at 17%. Guess I was right to smell a flop.
bonfarr
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Rex Racer said:

I think Frozen 2 is being under-estimated here. How many little girls will go see this with their parents multiple times? And look at what Frozen did at the box office.


It's all about the music, if they have a hit song it will be a smash hit, if not it will be a dud.
bonfarr
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The release of Frozen 2 will be fascinating as LGBTQ advocates have for some reason latched onto the sequel pushing for Disney to make Elsa come out as a lesbian and the producers didn't rule it out. Moments after the trailer was released gay advocates complained there wasnt a girlfriend for Elsa in it.

Either way conservatives or progressives are going to be pissed and it will be fun to watch the meltdown.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Screw that. Make Poe + Finn happen. That's what fans really want.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Completely forgot about Secret Life of Pets 2 in my OP.

Pretty sure that'll clear $200M easily. Might climb into $300M but I think there's too much competition this year.

Dark Phoenix, just a question of how bad it'll flop. I think it should do at least $60M+ this weekend, because it's still an X-Men movie. But it'll sink like a lead balloon after that.
The Collective
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Out of the little kid movies on your list, Secret Life of Pets 2 is drawing the most interest in my household.
caleblyn
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Another question...

Will all four of those Disney "blockbusters" hit $1BB worldwide? If so, how many will have in one year? Crazy what Disney has done in 2019!
Brian Earl Spilner
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100%
amercer
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"Let it go" is a huge coming out anthem

I'll assume Disney doesn't touch it either way. 1st trailer made it look like a quest movie so maybe they skip the romance
amercer
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Dark Phoenix looks awful.

I'd be surprised if MIB didn't do well. I think the casting carries it.
Tanya 93
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Hemsworth, Pratt, Tatum



They just needed to add Ryan Reynolds as a fourth and that is the movie so many 30 to 50 year old women will see...
I do not want people to be very agreeable, as it saves me the trouble of liking them a great deal.

Jane Austen
Brian Earl Spilner
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Dark Phoenix $36M opening.

I knew it would bomb, but eesh.

That's a whole $20M below John Wick 3.
Brian Earl Spilner
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What's weird is even Pets 2 is not doing great.

A bit of summer blockbuster fatigue already?

If this is any indication, I really overshot it with my predictions I think.

At least Aladdin is holding really well. ~$25M in its third weekend.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Quote:

Flops:
Dark Phoenix
MIB International
Scary Stories
Gemini Man


2/2 on flops so far.

I think TS4 will open between 190-200 M next weekend.
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