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I was with her when she died," Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father." He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black.
The fever is what made me think of childbirth rather than an injury. Then the promises - what else would a dying woman ask for that Ned could provide? Look after her child just seemed to fit.
That and Ned just didn't seem like the kind of guy to father a *******. He was obviously protecting someone. And Robert wasn't going to let a Targaryen baby live. Ned was so upset by Robert wanting to kill Dany. It confirmed that he'd been right to hide Jon's parentage.
It just seemed like a logical conclusion when it came to me. I mentioned it to my husband (who read the books long before I did), and he laughed when I was surprised that he had already heard about it. Told me I'd just "discovered" on of the long running theories about the book.