Basso is the only legitimate contender close enough to win. The Disco Train wont give up 4 minutes to somebody like Ullrich or Vino. Just look at the other day when Vino won...yeah, he won the stage, but Disco let him get away to about a 4 minute lead then cut it back at the end to where Vino only picked up a minute and change.
Basso has to have a great day on the same day Lance cracks. Plus, while he did improve from last year, Basso still cannot time trial like Lance.
It's not about somebody else winning...it is about Lance losing if it is gonna happen, to which I say it's not.