Preseason end-of-season SEC predictions

Talkin’ season is over. Sort of.

SEC Media Days are in the rearview mirror, and if you close your eyes, you can picture that first fall Saturday.

In honor of that, I thought now would be the perfect time to close our eyes and look into the SEC crystal ball. Of course, I don’t want to spoil anything. The goal is never to spoil a chaotic year in what could be the last season of the 12-team College Football Playoff.

But hey, part of talkin’ season is making predictions that’ll age like wine, not milk. And if they do age like milk, well, that comes with the territory.

(My national champion last year was LSU, so definitely don’t bookmark this and roast me for it in a few months).

So let’s look into the SEC crystal ball and tell the story of 2026.

7 Key Upsets

1. Florida wins vs. Ole Miss
My thinking: Even when Florida is down, it always catches someone by surprise. I say that Jon Sumrall, who admitted that Ole Miss kicked the you-know-what out of him twice last year at Tulane, gets revenge in “The Swamp” after Pete Golding’s squad is coming off an emotional win vs. LSU.

Callie Garner, TexAgs

Spending two years at Troy and two more at Tulane, Florida’s Jon Sumrall is 43-12 as a head coach at the Division I level.

2. Texas A&M wins at Alabama
My thinking: This is in the midst of a brutal four-game stretch for the Crimson Tide. Seeing another physically imposing team who can get after a young, inexperienced Alabama offensive line will prove costly for the Tide and keep A&M very much alive in the Playoff discussion.

3. Arkansas wins vs. Tennessee
My thinking: For whatever reason, the Hogs have had a ton of success against Tennessee in Fayetteville. In their last six such matchups, they’re 5-1 vs. the Vols. I say that the head-scratching historic trend continues and Ryan Silverfield hands Josh Heupel a devastating loss that adds to his road woes.

4. Oklahoma wins at Georgia
My thinking: Georgia’s nation-leading home winning streak ended last year, and in a game that’s the first early test of the season for the Dawgs, a battle-tested OU team rises to the occasion. Brent Venables’ best team to date delivers a signature performance in the first regular-season matchup ever between the two storied programs.

5. Oklahoma wins vs. Texas
My thinking: I can’t help but think that OU was the most relieved team to see Steve Sarkisian move on from Pete Kwiatkowski. John Mateer admitted that he cringed while watching the Texas film from last year. He avenges last year’s loss and puts the Sooners firmly in the SEC Championship discussion.

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma’s most recent Red River Rivalry win was a 34-30 triumph on Oct. 7, 2023, in Brent Venables’ second season as the Sooner head coach.

6. Mississippi State wins vs. Oklahoma
My thinking: Oklahoma is the SEC’s agent of chaos. In a game that means everything to Jeff Lebby, he catches a battle-tested, but banged-up OU team by surprise. Kamario Taylor escapes pressure after pressure and delivers one of the best individual performances of the season en route to a massive upset in Starkville.

7. Ole Miss wins vs. Georgia
My thinking: This game will determine an SEC Championship bid. Go figure that it’s considered an upset after Ole Miss knocked off Georgia in last year’s Sugar Bowl to earn a spot in the semifinals. People seem to have already forgotten that for seven out of eight quarters, Trinidad Chambliss was masterful vs. Kirby Smart’s defense. That continues and lands Ole Miss its first-ever SEC Championship berth (more on that in a bit).

Award Winners

SEC Jacobs Blocking Trophy: Trevor Goosby, Texas OT
My thinking: I’ve been a Goosby believer since I saw him fill in admirably down the stretch in 2024. In 2025, he wasn’t a perfect player for what was an imperfect Texas offensive line. But still, he only allowed three sacks playing left tackle as a first-time starter, only one of which came in the final eight games. I also think Texas’ ground game will flip the script, and running those stretch plays to Goosby’s left side will become a staple for a revamped backfield. That’ll make the future first-rounder an easy choice as the SEC’s top offensive lineman.

USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Entering his fourth season in the Texas program, Trevor Goosby is listed at 6-foot-7 and 325 pounds.

SEC Special Teams Player of the Year: Tate Sandell, Oklahoma K
My thinking: Look. I realize there’s this new rule that requires players to essentially not turn their pants into shorts as Sandell did, but barring that changing everything, that dude will be a weapon. Yes, he struggled in atypical ways in the first round against Alabama. It was also a cold, windy night in Norman. Don’t forget that the guy made 8-of-9 kicks beyond 50 yards, and the only kick he missed from inside 40 yards happened in that Playoff loss. Sandell repeating as the SEC’s Special Teams Player of the Year might be the safest bet of any on this list.

SEC Freshman of the Year: Keelon Russell, Alabama QB
My thinking: While I think this award should be given to the best true* freshman and that it shouldn’t include redshirt freshmen, I’ll operate within those parameters. I’m a Russell believer. Everything I’ve heard, read and seen tells me that he’s capable of being Kalen DeBoer’s righty Michael Penix Jr. With Alabama facing its lowest set of preseason expectations since 2008, Russell changes the discussion with the Tide as a dynamic playmaker who feels much more comfortable slinging it from the pocket than his lack of experience would suggest.

SEC Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Isiah Canion, Georgia WR
My thinking: Part of the reason why there’s a bit of an underwhelming feeling surrounding the Georgia receiver room is that it didn’t include a bevy of splashy portal additions. But make no mistake, Canion will prove to be splashy by season’s end. The Georgia Tech transfer is going to be Gunner Stockton’s new favorite target. His numbers were underwhelming in his sophomore season, but part of that was because of Haynes King’s skill set. Canion has an elite catch radius and could become Georgia’s second 1,000-yard receiver in program history.

SEC Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Anto Saka, Texas A&M DE
My thinking: At this point, it’s a safe assumption that Mike Elko is going to have a star on his defensive line. While I think T.J. Searcy is the emotional leader of that group, it’s Saka who can fill the pass-rushing shoes of 2025 SEC Defensive Player of the Year Cashius Howell. The Northwestern transfer is going to fit in perfectly as that havoc-wreaking, edge-rushing force in Elko’s defense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him finish with double-digit sacks and be a key presence for one of the nation’s top defensive lines.

Danny Grant, TexAgs

In 41 career games at Northwestern, Anto Saka has been credited with 12.0 total sacks.

SEC Offensive Player of the Year: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss QB
My thinking: Is it boring to say that the guy who was 20 seconds from playing for a national championship is going to be the conference’s best returning player? Sure. But I’m still waiting on reasons not to believe in Chambliss because without Lane Kiffin, that cat was still as good of a player as there was in the Playoff field. Even without Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr., I still expect him to pick up where he left off, which was being the guy who had 353 more passing yards vs. ranked finishers than anybody in the sport. When the bullets are flying, Chambliss is in a class of his own.

SEC Defensive Player of the Year: DJ Pickett, LSU CB
My thinking: As a true freshman, Pickett was a starting outside corner who allowed just 125 yards in coverage and 46 YAC yards in his first 11 games. Sure, he had a few tough moments in LSU’s final two games of a lost season, but he was an ideal complement to first-round pick Mansoor Delane. This year, Pickett will almost exclusively guard the WR1s. The 6-foot-4 corner showed that he was instantly able to play at a high level with a 66.8 NFL quarterback rating when targeted. Those instincts are special, and I can’t help but feel that Corey Raymond is going to coach up another elite LSU defensive back en route to SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors.

SEC Coach of the Year: Pete Golding, Ole Miss
My thinking: There would be tremendous irony if Golding — not Kiffin — were to lead Ole Miss to its first-ever SEC Championship appearance. With what’s expected to be a loaded schedule, it’s now considered bold to predict that Golding will fulfill that prophecy. It’s not just Chambliss. With the defensive additions in the portal and the backfield depth added behind All-American Kewan Lacy, I’m a believer that Golding’s squad isn’t going anywhere. Beating Georgia with extra rest wasn’t a fluke. Golding will remind the college football world of that.

Callie Garner, TexAgs

After replacing Lane Kiffin last season, Pete Golding is 2-1 as a head coach.

Order of SEC finish (Conference record)

16. Arkansas, 3-9 (1-8)
15. Kentucky, 3-9 (1-8)
14. Vandy, 5-7 (2-7)
13. Mizzou, 6-6 (3-6)
12. Auburn, 6-6 (3-6)
11. Mississippi State, 5-7 (3-6)
10. Tennessee, 6-6 (3-6)
9. South Carolina, 7-5 (4-5)
8. Florida, 7-5 (4-5)
7. Texas A&M, 9-3 (6-3)
6. LSU, 9-3 (6-3)
5. Alabama, 10-2 (7-2)
4. Georgia, 10-2 (7-2)
3. Oklahoma, 9-3 (7-2)
2. Ole Miss, 10-2 (7-2)
1. Texas, 11-1 (8-1)

Playoff teams: Texas, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama

My thinking: We’ll get to the SEC Championship matchup in a bit, but let’s remind folks that the nine-game SEC schedule is going to yield a whole lot of unhappy fanbases.

Winning six SEC games once put teams firmly in the mix for a conference title. Now, a team like A&M or LSU could do that and only finish sixth in the conference. Last year, we watched A&M and Ole Miss get left out of the SEC Championship with just one conference loss. No more. If you get through the SEC with a single conference loss, book your ticket to Atlanta.

Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

Georgia has made five College Football Playoff appearances, winning the national titles in 2021 and 2022.

My biggest disagreements with the media’s predicted order of finish were A&M (I have the Aggies at 7, the media has them at 4), Mizzou (I have the Tigers at 13, the media has them at 10), Georgia (I have the Dawgs at 4, the media has them winning the conference) and Oklahoma (I have the Sooners at 3, the media has them at 7).

• Let’s start with Mizzou, who I have going 3-6 in SEC play. I don’t know if the casual fan realizes that Eli Drinkwitz’s squad lost a ton of production from a top-20 defense. While I’m still particularly intrigued by Austin Simmons and that new-look offense, I’m unsure what to expect from 2025 Doak Walker finalist Ahmad Hardy after he was shot at a concert this summer. With all due respect to Jamal Roberts, I worry that a Mizzou team that has lost eight consecutive games to ranked foes will be in for a rude wake-up call in the latter half of that challenging schedule.

• As for A&M, I have the Aggies going 6-3 in SEC play, so being three spots off is probably more about which games I have them losing. Beating Alabama but losing at LSU, and then closing the regular season with losses at Oklahoma and vs. Texas to spoil a Playoff berth would be crushing.

Marcel Reed & Co. have owned the Tigers, but I get the feeling that this game will be the full-circle moment for LSU to show how different things are under Kiffin compared to Brian Kelly. That results in LSU finding offensive answers instead of watching Elko make all the right halftime adjustments. The biggest thing holding A&M back from being a championship contender is finishing. That would be a frustrating trend to continue in 2026, especially if Reed looks like an improved player.

Will Huffman, TexAgs

With 13 SEC starts, Marcel Reed ranks second behind only South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (16) as the league’s most-experienced quarterback.

• The same could be said for Oklahoma, which could also go 9-3 overall and be on the outside looking in at a Playoff spot. There would be great irony if the Sooners followed the 2025 Texas path of racking up multiple top-10 wins, but losing an inexplicable game that leads to a 9-3 regular season. The Sooners are capable of stopping any offense in America with what Venables has on defense.

But it’s fair to wonder if Mateer can hold up over the course of a full season with the type of contact his frame takes on. Even in the likely event that OU’s ground game improves, I can’t shake the feeling that he’ll be vulnerable in the latter half of the schedule again.

• I realize I’m dumb to not pick Georgia to even get to the SEC Championship after it reached Atlanta in eight of the last nine seasons. Picking the Dawgs to finish fourth looks bad on paper, except when you realize that it’s the same 7-2 conference record as my predicted SEC Championship participant, Ole Miss.

But losing those aforementioned games vs. Oklahoma at home and then at Ole Miss proves costly. Against a pair of quarterbacks who can make magic with their legs and arm, UGA suffers a pair of one-score losses. That doesn’t necessarily derail the Dawgs’ Playoff path, though. If anything, it gives Smart’s squad a different preamble than the last two years when it won the SEC Championship to earn a bye, but then lost in the Sugar Bowl.

SEC Championship

Texas beats Ole Miss
My thinking: Earmuff this, A&M fans. Or rather, consider this a gift to you. After all, the media is 8-for-26 with predicting SEC Champions in the 21st century. Then again, the media pick was Georgia. Make of that what you will. What I make of Texas is that it’ll have growing pains defensively with a bunch of new pieces for Will Muschamp’s return to running his own unit, but an improved offense will make the difference in Sarkisian’s first SEC title.

Why will it improve? Arch Manning has a more experienced offensive line, Cam Coleman is the contested-catch guy that Texas desperately lacked in 2025 and a proven pair of Power Conference transfer running backs in Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers will give the Longhorns a better 1-2 punch than the banged-up group that struggled last year.

Remember, even after last year’s disappointment, Texas is 13-3 in conference play since joining the SEC. That offensive versatility in a pivotal year yields an advantage against a battle-tested Ole Miss squad. The missed tackles that plagued Golding’s defense against Miami in the semifinals will resurface against a dangerous group of Texas skill-players. An SEC Championship and a Round 1 bye await.

And if Texas fails to live up to some lofty preseason expectations again, well, something tells me that’ll be a popular topic of conversation by season’s end.