SEC Round-Up: Dawgs facing possible playoff elimination this week
The schedule says the College Football Playoff starts in a little more than a month. But for Georgia, they start this weekend.
No. 12 Georgia (7-2, 5-2) — which opened the season ranked No. 1 — is facing probable playoff elimination vs. No. 7 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1) on Saturday.
Sure, it’s possible a three-loss team could get into the 12-team playoff, but that is by no means assured.
Therefore, the Bulldogs are already facing a playoff game of sorts, even if coach Kirby Smart isn’t approaching it that way.
“I don't ever take those approaches,” Smart said earlier this week. “I don't think they're the right way to go about things. I think you're trying to win your conference all the time, and to do that, you've got to win your games at home. You've got to play well on the road, which we have and haven't. We've done both, but I like making it about who we play and how we play and less about just outcomes.”
Well, outcomes matter.
Georgia has already lost to Alabama and Ole Miss. A loss to Tennessee could drop the Bulldogs to as low as eighth in the SEC standings and maybe out of the next CFP rankings.
A victory would keep the Bulldogs afloat in the two-loss logjam that is the SEC race.
Five SEC teams have two conference losses. If Tennessee falls, there would be six. If Texas is upset by Arkansas, there could be as many as seven two-loss teams.
That could eventually set up some crazy tie-break scenarios to figure out who gets in the SEC Championship Game.
That’s just life in the SEC.
“I think statistics say there's more parity (in the SEC),” Smart said. “Just looking at the sheer differentials in games, looking at the matchups, looking at the number of teams that are still in it. Some of that's because of the non-divisions. It brings everybody into it, but there's a lot of good football teams, and it's a war of attrition.
“I've talked about it all year. It's an emotional roller coaster that you don't want to be a part of. You want to navigate this thing with a long-term mindset in your approach to it, and there's a lot of good football teams out there, and there's a lot of good games left to be played. There's a lot of good teams left to play games.”
There are a lot of SEC games remaining, but it’s the final conference game for Georgia. The Bulldogs close the regular season with UMass and Georgia Tech.
If Smart doesn’t recognize the upcoming game as a “must-win,” perhaps it’s because he has forgotten how it feels to be in this position.
Georgia hasn’t endured three losses in a season since 2018. Even then, two of the losses were in the postseason. They fell to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and then lost to Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
Georgia hasn’t absorbed three regular-season losses since 2016, which was Smart’s first year at the helm in Athens.
Incidentally, that was also the last year in which Georgia has lost consecutive games in the regular season.
The Bulldogs fell to OleMiss and Tennessee that year then beat South Carolina. A week later, they lost to Vanderbilt and then Florida. But then they beat Kentucky.
Since then, Georgia hasn’t lost back-to-back regular season games.
This year, they lost to Alabama, 41-34, on Sept. 28 but responded with four-straight wins.
History indicates the Bulldogs will bounce back from the 28-10 loss to Ole Miss last week, especially with Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava considered doubtful.
But Georgia has some quarterback issues of its own. Carson Beck leads the SEC with 12 interceptions. Nine have come in the last four games.
Despite Beck’s turnover tendencies, Smart won’t consider benching him.
“We've got the quarterback we've got who is completely competent, capable and understanding of our system that gives us the best chance to win,” he said of Beck.
You always take your best chance in the playoffs — or games that might as well be playoffs.
Around the SEC
This week’s games: New Mexico State at No. 15 Texas A&M; No. 3 Texas at Arkansas; ULM at Auburn; Murray State at Kentucky; Mercer at No. 10 Alabama; No. 22 LSU at Florida; No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina; No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia
Who’s hot: For the second week in a row, Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson occupies this spot. Sampson has exceeded 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games. He has rushed for at least 138 in four of them. He leads the SEC with 1,129 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns.
Who’s not: Passing yardage isn’t really the issue for Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Beck has thrown for 2,488 yards — the third-highest total in the SEC — but he leads the SEC with 12 interceptions. Nine of those have come in the last four SEC games. He was intercepted twice vs. Mississippi State, three times vs. Texas and Florida and once vs. Ole Miss. Fortunately for Georgia, the effects of his turnovers have been minimal. The Bulldogs only lost to Ole Miss. LSU hasn’t been as lucky. Though Nussmeier has passed for at least 233 yards in each of the last four games, he has thrown seven interceptions and lost a fumble in that span. He had two interceptions and lost a fumble vs. Alabama. All led to touchdowns in a 42-13 loss. He had three interceptions in a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M. They led to two touchdowns and a field goal. Nussmeier has thrown 11 interceptions, which is the second most in the SEC.
Keep an eye on South Carolina redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers has been one of the SEC's most productive quarterbacks of late. He has passed for 484 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. He hasn’t thrown an interception in the last three games. However, he’s completing just 61.5 percent. He faces Missouri, which is ranked second in the SEC in pass defense. Missouri has limited opponents to a 58.9 percent completion rate.
Pressure is on: The citizens of Baton Rouge are starting to lose faith in and patience with LSU coach Brian Kelly. Consecutive losses to Texas A&M and Alabama leave LSU at 6-3. That’s three consecutive years with at least three losses under Kelly. At most places, that would be celebrated, but not at LSU. Defense continues to be an issue. The Tigers have struggled against running quarterbacks. That problem could put them in jeopardy if Florida quarterback DJ Lagway is able to play this weekend. Lagway sustained a hamstring injury two weeks ago vs. Georgia. He did not play last week vs. Texas. Whether Lagway starts is expected to be a game-time decision.
Best matchup: The outcome of the Tennessee-Georgia game probably comes down to the clash between the Volunteers’ offensive line vs. Georgia’s defensive line. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is considered doubtful, which will put more emphasis on the Vols’ SEC-leading running game. Can Tennessee’s offensive line win the line of scrimmage against the Bulldogs defensive front that will be keying on containing Sampson?
