Around CFB: Predicting the top 12 teams in initial CFP rankings
The College Football Playoff committee releases its first playoff rankings on Tuesday night.
Though the committee ranks a top 25, only the first 12 really matter.
Obviously, those would be the teams projected for inclusion in the 12-team field.
The 12 teams in the playoff include the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded first-through-fourth and receive first-round byes. The teams seeded fifth-through-eighth will host first-round games.
Records matter. A two-loss team may get into the 12-team field, but teams with one loss or less will have obvious advantages.
Therefore, here’s a guess at how the initial top 12 will look and why.
1. Oregon (9-0): The unbeaten Ducks have impressive victories over Ohio State, Illinois and Boise State. No resume is better.
2. Georgia (7-1): Even with a close loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs arguably have a better resume than unbeaten Miami. Double-digit victories over Texas (7-1) and Clemson (6-2) cannot be ignored.
3. Miami (9-0): The Hurricanes are unbeaten, but their big wins are over Louisville (6-3) and Duke (6-3). Those are not as impressive as Georgia’s wins. Plus, anyone paying attention to college football knows Miami benefitted from controversial calls and non-calls to defeat Virginia Tech and Cal.
4. BYU (8-0): Victories over SMU (8-1) and Kansas State (7-2) should ensure BYU is fourth.
5. Ohio State (7-1): The Buckeyes’ lone loss was by one point on the road at Oregon. Last week they went on the road to beat Penn State (7-1).
6. Boise State (7-1): Some will argue for unbeaten Army to get a nod as the “Group of Five” potential conference champion. But Army has only beaten one opponent with a winning record — North Texas (6-3). Meanwhile, Boise State has beaten Washington State (7-1) and UNLV (6-2). The Broncos’ only loss was 37-34 at Oregon.
7. Indiana (9-0): The Hoosiers are the nation’s surprise team. Their perfect record must be acknowledged. They haven’t played a demanding schedule. Indiana’s opponents are a combined 34-45. Their best victories are over Nebraska (5-4) and Washington (5-4).
8. Texas (7-1): Texas wasn’t too competitive in a 30-15 loss to Georgia. The Longhorns’ best wins are over Vanderbilt (6-3) and so-so Michigan (5-4).
9. Tennessee (7-1): A victory over Alabama (6-2) carries a lot of weight. An SEC road loss at Arkansas (5-4) can be at least partially excused.
10. Penn State (7-1): The Nits’ only impressive victory is over Illinois (6-3). They lost by a mere touchdown to Ohio State.
11. SMU (8-1): A loss to BYU is forgivable, especially with victories over Pitt (7-1), Duke (6-3) and Louisville (6-3).
12. Notre Dame (7-1): A stunning loss to Northern Illinois stains the resume. But the Irish have victories over Texas A&M (7-2) and Navy (6-2).
Heisman Watch (If my ballot was due today)
1. Cam Ward, Miami, QB: Bounced back from a pedestrian showing a week ago to throw 400 yards and five touchdowns in a 53-31 victory over Duke. Ward is third nationally in passing. He has passed for 3,146 yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s also rushed for three touchdowns.
2. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State, RB: The nation’s leading rusher amassed 149 yards and scored two touchdowns in a 56-24 victory over San Diego State. His season rushing totals increased to 1,525 yards and 20 touchdowns. He’s averaging 8.3 yards per carry.
3. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon, QB: Turned in another strong performance in a 38-17 victory over Michigan. Gabriel passed for 294 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for a score. He is ranked ninth nationally in passing with 2,665 yards. He’s thrown 19 touchdown passes.
4. Travis Hunter, Colorado, WR/CB: The Buffaloes were open last week. In his most recent game, Hunter had nine catches for 153 yards and tw0 touchdowns in a 34-23 victory over Cincinnati. He also broke up four passes as a cornerback. Overall, Hunter is 12th in the nation in receiving. He’s caught 60 passes for 757 yards and eight touchdowns. He has also broke up seven passes and intercepted two.
5. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss, QB: The Rebels’ quarterback returns to the rankings after passing for 515 yards and six touchdowns in a 63-31 rout of Arkansas. Dart leads the nation with 3,464 yards of total offense. He’s passed for 3,210 yards and 21 touchdowns. He’s rushed for 254 yards and three TDs.
Games to Watch
No. 11 Alabama at No. 14 LSU: Back in the day, this game frequently decided the SEC West Division winner. Now, it’s an SEC Championship Game and College Football Playoff elimination game.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss: Statistics favor Ole Miss, which leads the SEC in scoring and is third in points allowed. But Georgia is … well, Georgia.
No. 21 Colorado at Texas Tech: Colorado aims to stay in Big 12 championship contention. Texas Tech is trying to get back into contention. Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in scoring offense. Colorado leads in passing offense, while Tech’s defense is the league’s worst. Take the over.
No. 9 BYU at Utah: Casual college football fans may not realize it, but this is one of the nation’s nastiest rivalries. Seriously. They’re facing each other as conference foes for the first time since 2010.
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana: True, Michigan is only slightly above average. Still, the Wolverines are one of the better teams Indiana will have faced. Indiana’s opponents are a combined 34-46.
