SEC Round-Up: Odds of coaching changes remain ever-changing

Leaves begin changing colors in the fall. College football coaches often do, too.

November isn’t just the last month of the college football regular season. It’s also the month many college football coaches will be removed from their current jobs and begin seeking employment elsewhere.

It’s such a rite of passage that preseason written articles and podcast discussions speculate which will be the first coach or coaches to fall. Sportsbooks even set odds for wagers.

Discussions continue, but speculation and odds change.

Back in August, Florida’s Billy Napier and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman were installed as “favorites” to be fired first.

That’s beginning to look like a bad bet.

Florida is playing good football. The Gators, who once seemed destined for a third consecutive losing season, have won three of their last four. They lost in overtime to Tennessee.

The Gators are 4-3 heading into this weekend against Georgia. Suddenly, that doesn’t seem like an automatic loss. Neither do the following games against Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and especially Florida State.

Should Florida manage two or three more wins, Napier may save his job.

The same goes for Pittman. He was in the proverbial hot seat after a 4-8 debacle last season. But the Razorbacks are 5-3 with an upset of Tennessee to their credit.

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Sam Pittman is currently 28-28 in his fifth season as Arkansas’ head coach.

Heck, if Arkansas wins its next two games vs. Ole Miss and Texas, Pittman might get a contract extension. At the very least, the Razorbacks figure to qualify for a bowl game with Louisiana Tech and schizophrenic Missouri also remaining on the schedule.

So, if Napier and Pittman aren’t likely to be the SEC’s first fired, who would be?

Oklahoma’s Brent Venables? Nah. He’s just a year removed from a 10-win season. And even though the Sooners are in jeopardy of a rare losing season, his buyout is $44 million.

Auburn’s Hugh Freeze? Nah. The Tigers are likely to endure a second straight losing season under Freeze, but even Auburn figures to give a coach more than two seasons.

Well, maybe not. Freeze’s predecessor, Bryan Harsin, was dumped after just two seasons. They don’t have much patience on The Plains.

But Freeze had a top-ten recruiting class last year, so there’s hope for the future. He has to find a quarterback, though.

Actually, the best bet for the first coach ousted now may be Kentucky’s Mark Stoops for a variety of reasons.

True, Stoops is Kentucky’s all-time winningest coach with a 66-70 record.

But Kentucky hasn’t posted more than seven wins in a season since 2019. So far this season, the Wildcats are just 3-5.

Kentucky had a chance to upset Georgia, but trailing just 13-12, Stoops chose to punt from midfield with just under three minutes left to play. The Wildcats didn’t get the ball back until just nine seconds remained.

Also looming on the schedule are arch-rivals Tennessee and Louisville, as well as Texas. A four-win season (Kentucky also still plays Murray State) is a distinct possibility.

This week’s clash with Tennessee may be vital for Stoops’ future in Lexington.

“It’s a big rivalry,” Stoops said on Wednesday. “Obviously, with Tennessee having the year they’re having and they’ve been that way. They play a lot of big games late in the year.

“For us, we’re trying to get the program and the level a step higher to compete on a more consistent basis. It’s important to our fan base. It’s important to myself and our team.”

Stoops needs a big win to garner support. A losing season is bad. Losing to Georgia with a controversial coaching decision makes it worse. Losing to rivals could lead to change.

Also, Stoops considered leaving Kentucky for Texas A&M and allegedly went so far as to announce that he was leaving Lexington for College Station.

All that combined would seemingly make Stoops the most likely SEC to be fired.

Except…

His buyout is reportedly more than $40 million. So, maybe that’s too much for Kentucky to fire a football coach. Basketball? Yes. Football? Maybe not.

In fact, with the recent success of Napier and Pittman and the huge buyouts for Venables and Stoops, this could be a fall in which no SEC coaches are fired.

But don’t bet on it.

Around the SEC

This week’s schedule: No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina; No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas; Vanderbilt at Auburn; Maine at Oklahoma; Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia (Jacksonville); UMass at Mississippi State; Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee

Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Billy Napier is 0-2 against Georgia as the head coach at Florida. Last year, the Bulldogs beat the Gators, 43-20.

Who’s hot: Florida’s defense has made significant and surprising strides in the last three games. The Gators allowed an average of 427.5 yards in the first four games, but in the last three vs. UCF, Tennessee and Kentucky, they allowed an average of 298.6 points and forced six turnovers — five interceptions and a fumble. True, some of that improvement may be a byproduct of facing lesser offenses, but the Gators limited Tennessee — the SEC’s No. 3 ranked offense — to 287 yards and 17 points in regulation.

Who’s not: A month ago, Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff passed for 243 yards and a touchdown in an upset victory over Ole Miss. Since then, he has fallen on hard times. In the following three games — all losses — Vandagriff has completed just 52 percent of his passes for 443 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions. Kentucky now is 16th in the SEC in passing offense. The Wildcats have just six touchdowns this season.

Keep an eye on: Stepping in for injured Ja’Quinden Jackson, Arkansas freshman running back Braylen Russell erupted for 175 rushing yards on just 16 carries in a victory over Mississippi State last week. Russell can show that performance was no fluke this week against Ole Miss. The Rebels lead the SEC in run defense but have faced several opponents who struggle in the ground game. Ole Miss did allow 151 rushing yards to South Carolina and 147 to Oklahoma.

The pressure is on: Kentucky’s run defense has been abysmal of late. They gave up 147 rushing yards to Vanderbilt and 197 to Florida. Then, last week, Auburn rolled up 328 rushing yards. They can’t get a break. Next up is Tennessee, which boasts the SEC’s most productive running game behind leading rusher Dylan Sampson.

Best matchup: The South Carolina pass rush vs. Texas A&M’s pass protection. The Aggies allowed four sacks last week to LSU but still have given up only 11 in eight games. Meanwhile, South Carolina has notched 28 sacks, the second-highest total in the league. The matchup-within-the-matchup is South Carolina defensive end Kyle Kennard vs. A&M’s left tackle Trey Zuhn III. Kennard leads the SEC with 8.5 sacks. He will line up at various places along the line of scrimmage but often rushes from the left edge. Zuhn is A&M’s best offensive lineman and among the best in the SEC.