SEC Round-Up: Wide-open race paves way for wild second half
At the midway point of the college football season a perplexing question arises:
Which is the best football team in the Southeastern Conference?
The polls say Texas. History says Alabama. Recency bias says Georgia. The liquor says LSU. The standings say Texas A&M.
With three conference victories, A&M (5-1) leads the SEC standings. The Aggies have posted five consecutive victories since falling to Notre Dame in their season opener.
They’ve beaten Arkansas, which last week defeated then-No. 4 Tennessee. The Aggies also blew out then-No. 9 Missouri.
They’ve clearly made significant progress since the Notre Dame loss.
“From a big picture standpoint the thing that I’m most happy with is we’re starting to understand what a winning mentality looks like,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said. "The effort that it takes. The strain that it takes. The commitment every single day to a task, to focus, to do the things you’ve got to do to give yourself a chance to be successful on Saturday.”
Even with that effort, strain and commitment, it seems premature to label A&M as the SEC’s best team.
So, who is?
Of course, some would point to Texas’ current No. 1 ranking and undefeated record as evidence for the Longhorns to be the obvious answer.
Except, that spotless record and national rankings can be deceiving.
• Case in point, Part I: Four weeks ago, Georgia was unbeaten and a near-unamious choice atop the AP poll. But the Bulldogs dropped after struggling to beat Kentucky.
• Case in point, Part II: Alabama was undefeated and climbed to No. 1 after defeating Georgia two weeks ago. Then, last week, the Crimson Tide fell to Vanderbilt (yes, Vanderbilt). The Tide is no longer No. 1.
That illustrates despite that No. 1 ranking, Texas may not be the best team in the SEC.
Especially, since the Longhorns have played the weakest schedule of any of the aforementioned SEC teams.
Texas’ “big” win was over Michigan, which last week lost to Washington, wasn’t overly impressive vs. Arkansas State and eked out victories over mediocre USC and Minnesota.
Texas’ other four victories were over opponents — Colorado State, UTSA and Mississippi State — that are a combined 9-11 and have no victories over Power Four teams.
Until Saturday, Alabama was an easy pick as the SEC’s best team. The Tide won its first three games by at least 26 points. Then, they defeated Georgia, 41-34.
But losing to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984 resulted in Alabama dropping to No. 7 in the AP poll.
Of course, it should be noted that Alabama has won multiple national championships with one loss.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s seven-point loss to Alabama was only its third loss in the last four seasons. All of those losses were to Alabama.
With Alabama behind, Georgia may prove to be the SEC’s best. That is, if the Bulldogs don’t lose to Texas on Oct. 19.
In that case, Texas likely will have been established as the premier team. That is, unless the Longhorns fall to Texas A&M on Nov. 30.
If not, A&M may stake the claim. Assuming, of course, the Aggies also beat LSU on Oct. 26.
And Alabama could regain that status by beating Tennessee and LSU on the way to winning out.
But then, Tennessee only has one loss. The Vols could be the best.
Ultimately, the SEC’s champion will be decided on Dec. 7 in Atlanta.
But the teams that will get there is anybody’s guess.
Look for a frenetic second half of the season in the wide-open SEC race.
This week’s schedule: South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama; No. 21 Missouri at Massachusetts; No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma; Mississippi State at No. 5 Georgia; Florida at No. 8 Tennessee; No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU; Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Who’s hot: It’s no joke that kicker Alex Raynor is Kentucky’s primary offensive weapon. He’s scored 44 points thus far. That’s more than double the scoring of anyone else on the roster. In two games vs. South Carolina (31-6 loss) and Georgia (13-12 loss) he provided all the Wildcats’ points. He’s converted 11-of-11 field goal attempts to lead the nation. He’s 5-for-5 from 40-yards and out. He’s 2-for-2 from 50 yards or more. Raynor figures to play a major role in the Wildcats’ hopes to defeat Vanderbilt this week.
Who’s not: Oklahoma’s offense is a mess. The Sooners are ranked No. 121 in the nation in total offense and No. 69 in scoring offense. Three times the offense has produced 20 points or less. The Sooners scored just 16 in a win over Houston. They had 15 in a loss to Tennessee. Two weeks ago OU beat Auburn, 27-21, but one touchdown was scored by the Sooners’ defense. The Sooners benched starting quarterback Jackson Arnold in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins. He passed for 161 yards and had a long touchdown run vs. Auburn, so at least he provides a measure of hope.
Keep an eye on: Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is a national figure. That happens when you lead an upset of Alabama. A transfer from New Mexico State, where last year he led an upset of Auburn, Pavia completed 16-of-20 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns vs. Alabama. He also rushed for 56 yards. He’s looking to lead the Commodores to another victory against Kentucky, which is ranked No. 3 in the SEC in total defense.
Pressure is on: During the offseason, Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava was projected to have a banner season. Some even hailed him as a possible Heisman Trophy candidate. Instead, he’s been overwhelmingly average. Iamaleava has not passed for more than 211 yards against an FBS opponent. Last week he completed only 16-of-28 passes for a mere 156 yards in a 19-14 loss to Arkansas. He hasn’t added much help in the running game, either. Iamaleava next faces Florida. Struggling against the Gators’ porous defense might create panic because stronger defenses await in upcoming games with Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia.
Best matchup: Obviously, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart and LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will not be on the field at the same time, but they will be dueling. Dart directs the SEC’s No. 1-ranked passing offense. Nussmeier leads the No. 2-ranked passing offense. This game shapes up as a high-scoring track meet. The team with the most productive quarterback likely prevails. Dart may have an advantage because LSU’s pass defense is among the worst in the SEC. But Nussmeier will be protected by an offensive line that has allowed just two sacks.
