Five legitimate reasons to expect Texas A&M to win its Aug. 31 opener

I’m looking through reading glasses as I write this. They’re black. The lens power is +1.75. There is a smudge in the upper left corner of the left lens.

Most importantly, though, nowhere is there a Maroon tint.

This is noted lest my upcoming prediction is dismissed as a byproduct of looking through Maroon-colored glasses.

With a clear view unobstructed by bias or prejudice, I’m picking No. 20 Texas A&M to win its season-opening football game against No. 7 Notre Dame.

Really, that shouldn’t be considered controversial. Oddsmakers have rated the game a virtual toss-up. FanDuel has A&M as a 2.5-point favorite.

Still, some would look at that prediction from a writer in College Station and scoff.

TexAgs

This will be the sixth meeting between Texas A&M and Notre Dame. Most recently, R.C. Slocum’s Ags defeated the Irish 24-3 at Kyle Field in 2001.

Accusations of blatant homerism would ensue.

Even some Aggies may suggest — despite the denial in the opening paragraphs — there indeed a Maroon shade to my lenses.

No… An absence of objectivity is not the reason for the pick. Rather, here’s a list of five legitimate, concrete reasons to pick the Aggies.

They are as follows:

1. Kyle Field: It’s not so much the inevitable raucous atmosphere because the Irish attract a rowdy crowd wherever they go.

But, last season, Notre Dame wasn’t an imposing road team.

The Irish were just 3-2 in true road games. Two of those victories were over Stanford and Pitt, which were a combined 3-10 at home. One of those victories was Pitt over Wofford. One of the losses was Stanford falling to Sacramento State.

Notre Dame’s other road win was a 21-14 victory over Duke, which played much of the game without injured starting quarterback Riley Leonard. That win was clinched on a 31-yard touchdown run with 30 seconds remaining.

Meanwhile, A&M was 6-1 at Kyle Field. The loss was a 26-20 decision to Alabama, which finished 2023 ranked No. 5.

2. Weather: Expect temperatures well into the 90s at kickoff. That could be problematic for Notre Dame. August temperatures in South Bend have hovered in the mid-80s.

However, that’s not necessarily the main reason weather could favor A&M. There’s no rain in sight, which — at least for this game — may be celebrated in College Station.

Since taking over as A&M’s starting quarterback, Conner Weigman has thrived in good weather. He has completed 71 percent of his attempts in five games for 1,136 yards and 12 touchdowns.

His struggles were in cold weather at Auburn, a miserable cold, rainy day against Massachusetts at Kyle Field and a rainy day at Miami, where he passed for 336 yards but had two interceptions.

3. Conner Weigman’s Accuracy: Weigman has thrown two interceptions in his career. Both were in the loss to Miami last year. Neither was his fault. The weather was the main factor in one because Ainias Smith slipped on his route.

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Conner Weigman started the first four games in 2023 before suffering a season-ending injury vs. Auburn.

So, based on his history, Weigman doesn’t project to throw many — if any — interceptions.

That’s significant because Notre Dame relied heavily on turnovers a year ago. They had 16 picks. The Irish got at least one in each of their three regular-season victories over FBS opponents with winning records.

An interception against Duke led to a short field goal.

Two of three interceptions against North Carolina State resulted in touchdown drives of 33 and 16 yards.

Interceptions led to touchdown drives of 12, two and 50 yards against USC.

4. A&M’s Pass Rush: Notre Dame allowed multiple sacks in two of its three losses — five to Louisville and two to Clemson. The Irish also allowed two sacks in their narrow win over Duke.

That was with departed All-American Joe Alt and Blake Fisher starting at tackle. Alt was a first-round draft choice of the Los Angeles Chargers. Fisher was a second-round pick of the Houston Texans.

Complicating matters, new starting left tackle Charles Jagusah is out for the season with a torn pec. Notre Dame’s line isn’t as good as it was last year.

Last year, A&M’s pass rush — which produced 42 sacks — was better than any Notre Dame faced.

The Aggies rush may have gotten better with the additions of transfers Nic Scourton and Cashius Howell, the return of Shemar Turner and the anticipated improvement of Shemar Stewart.

5. Run Defense: A&M ranked 14th in the nation in run defense in 2023. Only one opponent managed more than 155 rushing yards. The Aggies project to be strong there.

Notre Dame had at least 155 rushing yards in seven of its nine regular-season victories.

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Jeremiyah Love is Notre Dame’s top returning rusher. As a freshman in 2023, he accumulated 385 yards on the ground.

But now the Irish are without Alt, Fisher and 2023 starting center Zeke Correll, who transferred to NC State, and running back Audric Estimé, who rushed for 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Returning running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have big-play ability, but it would be foolish to assume the Irish running game will be as strong without the powerful Estimé, who was a fifth-round pick of the Denver Broncos.

Those five factors point to an A&M victory.

Of course, one could argue there are factors against A&M. Notre Dame also has a strong defensive front and ranked No. 3 in the nation in pass defense last year.

Like A&M, the Irish expect to see improvement in areas of concern like receiver.

Also, last season, Notre Dame was among the best in the nation in kickoff returns, while A&M was among the worst in kickoff coverage.

Those issues are certainly reasons for pause. But for the other reasons, I'll take A&M.