Series Preview: Regular season ends with top-five clash in Aggieland

Who: No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks (42-10, 19-8 in SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Thursday: 7 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
Friday: 7 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Saturday: 2 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Pitching Matchups

Thursday: LHP Ryan Prager (8-1, 2.71 ERA) vs. LHP Hagen Smith (9-0, 1.65 ERA)
Friday: TBA vs. RHP Gage Wood (3-1, 3.03 ERA)
Saturday: LHP Shane Sdao (4-1, 2.03 ERA) vs. TBA

Scouting Arkansas

To be honest, it’s strange to see two TBAs on a pitching matchup for two top-five teams battling for the SEC West crown on the final weekend of the regular season. Well, that’s college baseball in the year 2024. Pitching numbers as a whole are up in college baseball. The one exception to that rule has been Arkansas, led by the best hurler in the land in Hagen Smith, with his spotless 9-0 record and 1.65 ERA.

However, the Razorbacks’ pitching staff is more than Smith. It’s deep and elite.

That’s the perception, anyway.

Gary Cosby Jr./USA Today Network

Hagen Smith’s 1.65 ERA and opposing batting average of .138 both lead SEC hurlers.

There is a narrative with this Arkansas staff that not many pundits are discussing. In recent weeks, head coach Dave Van Horn has been battling some poor starting pitching.

Before I get into the specifics of those pitching issues, let’s set up this discussion by looking at Arkansas’ recent SEC performances. Through the first four weeks of conference play, the Razorbacks raced out to an 11-1 mark that included three sweeps. Over the next five weekends, the Hogs have sputtered with an 8-7 mark with series losses to Alabama and Kentucky. We constantly hear about Texas A&M’s recent struggles over the past two weekends, but Arkansas isn’t playing much better.

Part of those struggles has been a mediocre offense that we’ll discuss later, but the starting pitching after Smith has fallen on hard times. In those last five weekend series, Arkansas is a dismal 3-7 in games two and three. Brady Tygart and Mason Molina have been the starters that followed Smith. It worked well early in conference play, but not now. In the last two weekends, neither hurler has lasted more than three innings. Last weekend against Mississippi State, the two combined to allow eight runs in 2.2 innings of work. Even Smith had his worst outing of the year against the Bulldogs, surrendering three runs, four hits and four walks in five innings of work in a no-decision.    

As a result, Van Horn is making changes. He’s taking sophomore right-hander Gage Wood out of the bullpen and into the weekend rotation. Now, his numbers in the bullpen have been solid, with a 3-1 record and a 3.03 ERA. However, his scheduled start against the Aggies on Friday will be the first SEC start of his career and only his second start this season. After that, Van Horn went with TBA in game three.

We’ve heard all year that Arkansas has the best pitching staff in college baseball, but suddenly the Razorbacks have gone back to the drawing board looking for answers. With that said Van Horn has a lot of capable options in the bullpen. Gabe Gaeckle is one of the best closers in the country, with seven saves and a 2.06 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting just .144 against him. Will McEntire has been a workhorse in relief with a 5-0 record and a 3.67 ERA in 25 relief appearances. Still, it’s not ideal for the skipper to be revamping his starting rotation two weeks before NCAA regionals.

Arkansas has leaned on its elite pitching to reach 42-10. The offense is capable, but certainly not explosive. The Aggies have a clear advantage in every major offensive category, and they score three more runs per game than the Razorbacks.

The Hogs do have some capable hitters in the lineup, led by veteran Peyton Stovall hitting .339 with nine home runs and 37 RBI. The leading power hitter and run producer is Wehiwa Aloy, with 11 homers, 50 RBIs and a .279 batting average. Peyton Holt is hitting .325, and Jared Sprague-Lott is swinging at a respectable .313, but the production numbers are unimpressive. The two combine for just 41 RBIs. Again, Arkansas has a capable lineup, but it’s certainly not a dynamic offensive unit and should not be feared as long as A&M pitchers are hitting their spots.

The Razorbacks do have a very tight defense with a fielding percentage of .982, which is one of the best in the SEC. A&M hitters will need to earn their way around the base paths this weekend.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

First things first: How does A&M’s offense attack the seemingly unhittable Smith, who averages almost two strikeouts per inning? Well, that’s a good question.

Do A&M hitters still play power ball and hope to run into a couple of fastballs over the plate that fly out of the ballpark? Or do they remain patient, run up his pitch count, collect a few walks and hope to scratch out a couple of runs in a low-scoring affair?

Kelii Horvath, TexAgs

Jace LaViolette has hit 48 career homers in 116 games as an Aggie. At 27 in 2024, “Lord Tubbington” could become the second A&M slugger to reach 30 in a year.

The decision is made harder when you consider the big three of Gavin Grahovac, Jace LaViolette and Braden Montgomery are still trying to regain their red-hot production numbers from earlier in conference play. A&M will have a hard time winning any games this weekend if that trio delivers another 1-for-13 effort like they’ve done a couple of times in the past two weekends. Specifically, Montgomery needs to heat up for this team to reach its full potential. Just three weeks ago, he was hitting close to .380 and among the nation’s leaders in most offensive categories. His batting average is down almost 50 points today. He’s still finding opportunities to produce and contribute at the plate, but he has cooled off from his scorching pace earlier in the year.

At the top of the lineup, Grahovac and LaViolette have struck out 136 times combined. Smith is the best strikeout pitcher in college baseball. That’s not a good matchup for A&M, and a change of approach may be in order. Then again, maybe the Aggies’ big three might take advantage of Smith’s struggles last weekend and put some big early swings on the left-hander to set the tone for the weekend.

Whether it’s Smith, Wood or any of the other Arkansas pitchers on the hill this weekend, the A&M big three must get back to slugging the ball all over the yard like they did in the first 10 weeks of the season. If not, this series will be difficult to win, and more importantly, advancing in the postseason will be a challenge. It’s go-time for this A&M offense.

On the hill, the performance of Shane Sdao last Sunday was a huge shot in the arm for this pitching staff. Sunday’s outing was no fluke. Sdao’s pitching line this season is filthy, with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 2.03. He has surrendered just 28 hits in 40 innings, and opposing batters are hitting a paltry .198 against him. Jim Schlossnagle has two quality starters he can rely on and a trusted closer in Evan Aschenbeck.

After that, the pitching has some question marks that must be answered this weekend.

Kelly Cothern, TexAgs

Shane Sdao earned SEC Co-Pitcher of the Week honors for tossing seven scoreless innings vs. Ole Miss last Sunday.

Who starts game two?

It’s hard to believe Schlossnagle will go back to a struggling Justin Lamkin, especially when the other two starters in the rotation are lefties as well. Does he go back to right-hander Tanner Jones and his 6.98 ERA? Maybe Chris Cortez? Going into this series, the answers aren’t clear. In addition, by taking Sdao out of the bullpen and into the rotation, that’s one less premium arm available in relief. The answers will have to come from Cortez, Josh Stewart, Brad Rudis or somebody like Tarleton transfer Zane Badmaev, who pitched four innings on Saturday against Ole Miss, allowing one run and no walks.

Bottom line, either the offense must get back to its torrid ways, or some questions need to be answered in a positive way from the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen after Aschenbeck.

What’s at stake this weekend

We can talk about what’s in front of the Aggies this weekend against Arkansas.

A&M can still win the west division and lock up a No. 2 seed in Hoover next week with a three-game sweep. The Aggies will also secure a top-eight national seed in the NCAA Tournament and a bye in next week’s conference tournament with a series win over the Razorbacks.

If A&M loses the series 2-1, there’s still a pretty good chance they will earn a top-eight national seed, but it may force the Maroon & White to win a game in Hoover and sweat out the NCAA committee’s national seed selections.

An unlikely sweep by Arkansas at Blue Bell Park will certainly put the Aggies in an uncertain status moving forward regarding a top-eight national seed and home-field advantage throughout the NCAA regionals and super regionals.

More than anything, the goal for this weekend is to play better baseball.

Hit better. Cut down on the strikeouts. Force the opposition to earn their way on-base, minimize the free passes and play clean defense. A&M did those things in the first 10 weeks of the season, and they’ve played sloppy baseball in all phases since, resulting in a disappointing 2-5 record over their last seven SEC contests. Yes, they need better results to get a better postseason draw, but that won’t matter if they aren’t playing better baseball over the next three weeks. There’s no more time to figure it out.

The time is now. Take care of business this weekend and win this series.