Series Preview: A&M hopes to seal postseason fate vs. Mississippi State
Who: Mississippi State (26-24, 8-19 Southeastern Conference)
Where: Dudy Noble Field – Starkville, Mississippi
When:
Thursday: 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Friday: 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Pitching matchups
Thursday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 1-3, 6.32) vs. Colby Holcombe (RHP, 2-2, 7.71)
Friday: TBA vs. TBA
Saturday: TBA vs. TBA
Scouting Mississippi State
It has been many weeks since the Aggies played an opponent with a higher team ERA, but Mississippi State’s SEC-worst 6.89 is well over a run higher than Texas A&M’s. They’ve struggled with injuries, players not performing up to expectations and just bad pitching throughout the season. Even in last week’s upset wins in Baton Rouge, the Bulldog pitching staff gave up 29 runs. Ouch. The troubling statistic for State hurlers is the walks. They lead the league in base-on-balls (295). That plays right into the Aggies’ hands. Guess who leads the SEC in receiving walks? Yeah, you guessed it, Texas A&M with 325.
Overall, the Bulldogs have horrendous pitching statistics, and as much as Texas A&M struggles on the hill, the Aggies have an advantage in every major pitching category. This game will come down to control and how many free passes State surrenders this weekend. It’s as simple as that. The Bulldogs will start Colby Holcombe and his bloated 7.71 ERA on Friday night. After game one, it’s the dreaded TBA for both Friday and Saturday.
To be honest, both teams will be throwing the proverbial manure against the wall to see what sticks. It will be pitching by committee with the hope that 1-2 guys can come out throwing strikes and get on a roll for a few innings. The key will be to minimize the big inning. Plenty of runs will be scored in this series, but avoiding the five or six spot could be the key to victory on a weekend with few quality arms.
At the plate, Mississippi State falls in the middle of the SEC pack by the numbers with a .283 team batting average, ninth in the conference. The offensive production is led by Hunter Hines with a team-leading 20 home runs, 60 RBI and a .301 batting average. Colton Ledbetter is also a dangerous hitter leading the Bulldogs with a .312 average on 12 homers and 52 RBI.
On paper, Texas A&M and Mississippi State are very similar in run production. In fact, both teams have scored 372 runs this season and have nearly identical on-base percentages. While the Bulldog offense is capable, it’s not on par with some of the explosive offenses like LSU, Florida and Alabama that the Aggies have already faced in 2023. While runs should be scored in bunches this weekend, ultimately this series will come down to pitching and which team can find just enough quality innings to slow down the expected offensive barrage between two struggling pitching staffs.
| Hitting | Avg. | Runs | Slug % | OBP | Strikeouts |
| Texas A&M | .271 | 372 | .450 | .396 | 419 |
| Mississippi State | .283 | 372 | .502 | .397 | 369 |
| Pitching | ERA | WHIP | Walks | Opp. Avg. | Strikeouts | Fielding % |
| Texas A&M | 5.67 | 1.59 | 256 | .266 | 515 | .980 |
| Mississippi State | 6.89 | 1.75 | 295 | .267 | 499 | .964 |
Texas A&M storylines to watch
The storylines are a little more complicated to diagnose for the Aggies. Texas A&M is struggling both at the plate and on the mound. Much has been mentioned about the bad pitching in College Station, and rightfully so because it’s not good. Still, the pitching falls in the average category, ranked No. 9 out of 14 SEC squads.
However, on offense, the Aggies are dead last or second-to-last in several SEC statistical categories. They are last in team batting average, 13th in slugging percentage, 12th in home runs, and 13th in double plays. The one area of strength as mentioned earlier is the ability to stay patient at the plate and draw an SEC-leading 325 walks which also translates to a solid .396 on-base percentage.
It’s pretty easy to see how the Aggies can score runs. Be patient at the plate and let a struggling pitching staff dig a hole by giving up free passes and falling behind in the count, which will allow A&M hitters to hunt pitches in the middle of the zone looking to hit gappers and long balls. That’s the recipe for a lineup with only two batters hitting over .300 (Hunter Haas and Jack Moss), and a middle-to-lower portion of the order struggling to hit above .220 and put the ball in play.
Speaking of putting the ball in play, Mississippi State has the worst fielding percentage in the SEC at .964, which is significantly lower than Texas A&M’s sparkling .980 defense. Haas had a spectacular series against Alabama last weekend and is having one of the best defensive seasons for an Aggie shortstop in years. If A&M can avoid the strikeout and put the ball in play and pressure a shaky State defense to execute, that will eventually pay off for the Aggies this weekend.
On the mound, Jim Schlossnagle is going back to Nathan Dettmer to open the series, but after that, it’s a “play it by ear” strategy with the coach running out arms on the bump until somebody other than Evan Aschenbeck or Brandyn Garcia can get some outs.
The key for this weekend is to secure an early lead and sustain that lead into the middle innings, and then turn it over to Aschenbeck and Garcia to close the door for the win. But at some point, guys like Will Johnston, Troy Wansing and Chris Cortez must perform this weekend and get some outs if this team hopes to win or even sweep this series. As we’ve seen this year, the Aggies struggle to get a series sweep with only a couple of effective pitchers over three days.
What’s at stake this weekend
Well, this will be one of the quickest “what’s at stake” segments. It’s pretty easy. At a minimum, the Aggies have to win this road series in Starkville to remain in realistic contention for an NCAA Regional at-large bid. D1Baseball’s Kendall Rogers still has Texas A&M projected in the field, but that’s predicated on winning two games this weekend to finish SEC play at 14-16.
If you ask me, I think the Aggies need to sweep this weekend to remove any questions about their postseason future. Winning this series looked very feasible against the downtrodden Bulldogs, but Mississippi State pulled a huge surprise last weekend by winning two games in Baton Rouge against the Tigers. Not only are the Bulldogs riding a wave of momentum, but last weekend’s success still has them in the hunt for the last SEC Tournament spot. They have something to play for against the Aggies, who have everything to play for this weekend.
Win two this weekend, or it could be a long, depressing offseason.
