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Around CFB: Notre Dame's chance to impact the playoff has arrived

November 1, 2022
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Maybe for the first time ever, Ohio State and Michigan will hope for a Notre Dame victory this weekend.


Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama will, too.

The rest of college football probably won’t, though.

Why, you ask?

The Fighting Irish might very well be the primary obstacle in preventing the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference from dominating the College Football Playoff field.

To explain:

Clemson (8-0), which travels to face Notre Dame, is one of just six unbeaten FBS teams. Should the Tigers lose in South Bend, that would conceivably open up a place in the four-team playoff field for a team with one loss.

The most likely one-loss teams to get in would come from the Big Ten and/or Southeastern Conference.

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Clemson and Notre Dame have not met since the Tigers beat the Irish in the 2020 ACC title game.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan are both unbeaten. They play on Nov. 26. The winner probably wins the Big Ten title game and finishes unbeaten.

The loser probably finishes with one loss. If that loser turns out to be Ohio State, the Buckeyes have a victory over Notre Dame as well as a win over Penn State. That gives Ohio State an edge over Clemson.

Michigan also has a win over Penn State, which is currently ranked No. 16 in the AP poll. Clemson’s most impressive victory is over No. 20 Wake Forest. Advantage Michigan.

Now, look at the SEC.

Unbeaten and second-ranked Tennessee and unbeaten and No. 1 Georgia square off on Saturday in Athens. The winner likely finishes the regular season undefeated but likely plays one-loss Alabama in the SEC Championship game.

The loser likely finishes with one loss.

If that loser is Georgia, the 11-1 Bulldogs have a victory over No. 8 Oregon. Advantage Georgia.

If the loser is Tennessee, the 11-1 Volunteers have victories over No. 6 Alabama and No. 15 LSU. Huge advantage Tennessee.

And if Alabama, which is 7-1, goes on to win the SEC West and SEC Championship, the Crimson Tide would be 12-1 with victories over Georgia or Tennessee and No. 15 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss.

If Notre Dame beats Clemson, the bigger question might be whether the Big Ten or SEC will get two teams into the playoff.

That answer might ultimately be both.

Unbeaten TCU had to squeak out a close victory over Kansas. The Frogs had to mount a fourth-quarter rally to edge Oklahoma State in overtime. They had to rally from a 28-10 deficit to beat Kansas State. TCU even had to hold to beat West Virginia.

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Behind the play of Max Duggan, TCU is surprisingly one of the six unbeaten teams remaining.

The Frogs still have road games at Texas and Baylor and a likely rematch with Kansas State or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game.

A loss would probably knock TCU out of playoff contention.

That could mean a playoff field consists of two Big Ten teams (Michigan and Ohio State) and two SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee).

That would expedite the expansion of the playoff field to 12 teams or more.

Heisman watch (If my ballot was due today)

1. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, QB: Another game, another stellar showing. Hooker completed 76 percent of his passing attempts while throwing for 245 yards and three touchdowns in a 44-6 blowout of Kentucky. He also ran for 23 yards and a touchdown. Overall, he has passed for 2,338 and 21 touchdowns with no interceptions. He has also rushed for 338 yards and four touchdowns.

2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State, QB: Completed 78.8 percent of his passing attempts in a 44-31 victory over Penn State. Stroud accumulated 354 passing yards and had a touchdown. He has thrown for 2,377 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. He has just four interceptions.

3. Drake Maye, North Carolina, QB: The redshirt freshman had his most productive performance of the season in a 42-24 victory over Pitt. Maye completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 388 yards and five touchdowns. It was his fifth consecutive 300-yard passing effort and sixth of the season. Maye leads the nation in total offense. He has thrown for 2,671 yards and 29 touchdowns with only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 439 yards and three touchdowns.

4. Blake Corum, Michigan, RB: A newcomer to the list, but Corum demands Heisman consideration. In a 29-7 victory over Michigan State last week, he rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown. It was his fifth consecutive game in which he has exceeded 100 rushing yards. In fact, in the last five games, he has gained 843 yards and seven touchdowns. Overall, Corum has rushed for 1,078 yards and 14 touchdowns.

5. Max Duggan, TCU, QB: Duggan passed for 341 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-31 victory over West Virginia to keep the Horned Frogs undefeated. Duggan has thrown for 2,212 yards and 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He has 276 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Predicted playoff participants

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With last week’s win over Florida, Georgia has now won ten straight games dating back to 2021.

1. Georgia: The clash with Tennessee this weekend figures to be the toughest challenge the Bulldogs face until the SEC Championship Game.

2. Ohio State: The Buckeyes get Michigan at home, which is the edge for a projected undefeated finish.

3. Tennessee: The Vols figure to finish with one loss, but the victory over Alabama should be a tie-breaker against any other contender.

4. Clemson: An undefeated season is projected, even expected. Maybe the Tigers should be third. But the guess here is the selection committee will avoid an SEC rematch in the opening round.

Games to watch

No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Georgia: The SEC East division will be determined.

No. 6 Alabama at No. 15 LSU: The SEC West division will (likely) be determined.

No. 5 Clemson at Notre Dame: Clemson’s final regular season road game. Also, the primary remaining regular-season threat to keep Clemson from finishing unbeaten.

Texas at No. 13 Kansas State: With a win, the Longhorns can keep alive faint hopes to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Kansas State seeks to stay right on the heels of league-leading TCU.

Michigan State at No. 14 Illinois: The Fighting Illi lead the Big Ten West. Michigan State is last in the Big Ten East. Still, this projects to be a close game. That says it all.


Editor’s note: This story was written and published before Tuesday night’s release of the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Rankings in this story are from the latest AP Poll.

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Around CFB: Notre Dame's chance to impact the playoff has arrived

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